EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[krus_aragon]

<silly post alert>
As Scotland's Court of Session has determined that the prorogation was "unlawful and void", but the High Court (for England and Wales) decided that it was not a matter it could intervene in...

Why not recall only the Scottish MPs to Parliament? That'd make for a majority SNP Government in Westminster!

 

[DarloRich]

In all fairness I think it was right not to vote for the deal whilst it contained the backstop in its current form. Furthermore, the heavy focus on the backstop meant other aspects weren’t subject to much scrutiny, particularly in the wider media.

There may have been an understandable urge to agree to something in order to get things moving, however I think this would have gone on to be viewed as a mistake.

but by the same token the glibness with which many brexit fans seem to dismiss what i think are legitimate concerns about the Irish Border and the GFA is worrying. i suspect many would sacrifice part of the our country to deliver their unicorn world.

You cant wish away the position the EU have taken on their negotiations. In fairness they seem to have approached the whole process with much more preparation, thought and maturity than we have!

 

[Bantamzen]

but by the same token the glibness with which many brexit fans seem to dismiss what i think are legitimate concerns about the Irish Border and the GFA is worrying. i suspect many would sacrifice part of the our country to deliver their unicorn world.

You cant wish away the position the EU have taken on their negotiations. In fairness they seem to have approached the whole process with much more preparation, thought and maturity than we have!

I could not agree more, they have taken what I see as a reasonably pragmatic view, and offered us a deal that looks after their interests & tries to satisfy as much of ours within the red lines set out by May's government. In the meantime we (as a country) have lurched from position to position like a drunk leaving happy hour, with no real direction & certainly nothing like an agreed mandate on how to best settle this. And now under this administration, the drunk has found a late night Polski Sklep and is polishing off a pack of Tyskie lager and a bottle of vodka before staggering onwards in search of Brexit Nirvana.....

 

[DarloRich]

I could not agree more, they have taken what I see as a reasonably pragmatic view, and offered us a deal that looks after their interests & tries to satisfy as much of ours within the red lines set out by May's government.

furthermore feel many brexit fans think that we can bully Ireland into accepting what we want. The point missed is the EU have set themselves up during negotiations to repel any such salami tactics

 

[Bletchleyite]

And now under this administration, the drunk has found a late night Polski Sklep and is polishing off a pack of Tyskie lager and a bottle of vodka before staggering onwards in search of Brexit Nirvana.....

 

[najaB]

furthermore feel many brexit fans think that we can bully Ireland into accepting what we want.

Because, of course, we've been so good to Ireland throughout history....

 

[greyman42]

Corbyn is not the labour parliamentary party, almost all of whom hate him.

The current remain-Blatcherite parliament loses badly in an election because either Corbyn wins or Boris does.

Then why don't they get rid of Corbyn and replace him with someone who takes the centre ground. An election could be there for the taking.

 

[dosxuk]

Because, of course, we've been so good to Ireland throughout history....

How many times in the last year has "well if Ireland aren't happy with a hard border they should just leave as well" been posted by various beleavers?

 

[Ianno87]

but by the same token the glibness with which many brexit fans seem to dismiss what i think are legitimate concerns about the Irish Border and the GFA is worrying. i suspect many would sacrifice part of the our country to deliver their unicorn world.

Not only sacrificing part of the country, but not giving a toss if the hard negotiated peace process for NI falls apart back into violence again, and the impact that has on the good citizens of NI (of which there are many). It's disturbing.

In other news, I'm *still* waiting to be informed of an actual benefit of Brexit.

 

[DerekC]

Well put. but unfortunately both May and Johnson have shewn all along that they are concerned only with trying (not very successfully!) to keep the Conservative Party together.

I am beginning to see a difference - May saw her first priority as keeping the Conservative Party together. Johnson cares only about getting to power and staying now he has got there. I suspect that he doesn't care a sh*t about Brexit personally, but he appears to be quite prepared to take a wrecking ball to our Constitution and wind up the people against Parliament and the Judiciary if that's what is needed to stay on top of the heap. May was only dangerous through incompetence. Johnson is dangerous through his own ambition and lack of principles.

 

[Bantamzen]

In other news, I'm *still* waiting to be informed of an actual benefit of Brexit.

Well there's the blue, French made passport covers. And let's not forget wrenching power from the un-elected bureaucrats in Brussels to the, erm, un-elected bureaucrats in Whitehall. Then there's the.... ummm.... erm.... hmmm... well you know, nasty EU, EU citizens coming here taking our jobs, make Britain great again, they need us more than we need them, we can trade with every small acapellago in every corner of the world, well after years of negotiation, Brexit means Brexit....

<reboots system>

Oh sorry there, I had a slight case of Brexiteer delusional infection there....

 

[EM2]

Yellowhammers in the wild!
https://assets.publishing.service.g...est_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

 

[najaB]

Yellowhammers in the wild!
https://assets.publishing.service.g...est_Yellowhammer_Planning_assumptions_CDL.pdf

Everything except cats laying with dogs...

It's easy to see why they didn't want this published.

 

[krus_aragon]

Everything except cats laying with dogs...

It's easy to see why they didn't want this published.

I found it to be rather thin reading.

It only contains their "reasonable worst case" scenario, which seems of limited use without their other planning assumptions to compare with.

 

[lyndhurst25]

Section 15 has been redacted. That will be the bit where they discuss the introduction of martial law, stockpiling body bags, etc.

 

[krus_aragon]

I found it to be rather thin reading.

It only contains their "reasonable worst case" scenario, which seems of limited use without their other planning assumptions to compare with.

Another reason the disclosure looks a bit "thin" is that it's missing all the communications on prorogation advice: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49670123

 

[nlogax]

A more compact summary that I've seen elsewhere this evening. Those who prefer no deal and want to 'just get out' need to leave their Blitz Spirit nostalgia pods and Spitfire PJs and come join the real world. People will die because of this.


HGV: 50-85% of HGVs unready. Flow rates down to 40-60%. For up to 3 months. Improving to 50%-70%. Some disruption for significantly longer. HGV delays of 1.5-2.5 days in Kent. Low risk of delays at ports outside of Kent.

Energy: Significant increase in Electricity price.

Medicine: 40% flow rate. Shortages for up to 6 months up to 75% of medicines. Detrimental impacts on disease outbreaks and food safety.

Fresh Food: No overall shortage but reduced availability and choice and increased prices. Impact lasting into Christmas. Chemical disruption may cause disruption in water supply for hundreds of thousands of people. Localised impact only, well prepared for.

Data: Years of disruption to personal data coming out of the EU

UK Nationals: Disruptions to healthcare for uk citizens on the continent.

Gibraltar: ****ed

Protests: Reduced police resources dealing with protests, counter protests. Increased public disorder

Fuel: Disrupted fuel supply in London and the South-East. Rest of the country OK unless panic buying causes shortages.

Insurance: Minor disruption of cross border payments

The Poor: Low income groups disproportionately affected by above issues.

NI Border: No border model unsustainable. Trade severely disrupted. Businesses stopping trade and relocating. Higher costs for remaining businesses and their customers. Agri-food hardest hit. Disruption to key sectors, Job losses, protests, direct action and road blockages. Growth in black market activity. Most severe in border communities.

Fishing: Lots of EU fishing in UK waters. Clashes between UK and EU fishermen. Reduced enforcement and response capabilities. Violent disputes, Blockading of ports. Increased smuggling and people smuggling.

Social Care: Significant impacts to the fragile adult social care market following inflation. Provider failures. Smaller providers in 2-3 months, larger 4-6 months.

 

[EM2]

^^^
Yes, but apart from that, it'll all be fine!

 

[DarloRich]

It only contains their "reasonable worst case" scenario, which seems of limited use without their other planning assumptions to compare with.

they have changed the title from base case to worst case just before publishing. I wonder why?

 

[JamesT]

Then why don't they get rid of Corbyn and replace him with someone who takes the centre ground. An election could be there for the taking.

They’ve tried that before. But the membership outnumber the MPs when it comes to labour leadership elections.

 

[DarloRich]

Fresh Food: No overall shortage but reduced availability and choice and increased prices. Impact lasting into Christmas. Chemical disruption may cause disruption in water supply for hundreds of thousands of people. Localised impact only, well prepared for.

there is also a line about panic buying making any shortages worse, impact on food supply chain ( aka key ingredients/chemicals/packaging missing/delayed), price rises AND Government will not be able to fully anticipate all potential impacts to the agri-food chain.

Aye. Sweet.

 

[nidave]

The legislature should have just amended the FTPA to hold an immediate pre-brexit eelction (voting 24th October) and ended this deadlock.

They chose not to do so because they are terrified that Boris will win and Brexit will occur.

This is what they are trying to avoid -

A no-deal Brexit could result in rising food and fuel prices, disruption to medicine supplies and public disorder on Britain’s streets, according to secret documents the government was forced by MPs to publish on Wednesday.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-brexit-chaos-forced-to-publish-secret-papers

I mean how dare Westminster try and make sure there is enough food on the table and people who need life saving medical supplies can get them. - SIGH

 

[Mag_seven]

The Poor: Low income groups disproportionately affected by above issues.

The very group who were persuaded by the charlatans and snake oil salesmen that the reason why they are poor is because of the EU.

 

[Ianno87]

A more compact summary that I've seen elsewhere this evening. Those who prefer no deal and want to 'just get out' need to leave their Blitz Spirit nostalgia pods and Spitfire PJs and come join the real world. People will die because of this.


HGV: 50-85% of HGVs unready. Flow rates down to 40-60%. For up to 3 months. Improving to 50%-70%. Some disruption for significantly longer. HGV delays of 1.5-2.5 days in Kent. Low risk of delays at ports outside of Kent.

Energy: Significant increase in Electricity price.

Medicine: 40% flow rate. Shortages for up to 6 months up to 75% of medicines. Detrimental impacts on disease outbreaks and food safety.

Fresh Food: No overall shortage but reduced availability and choice and increased prices. Impact lasting into Christmas. Chemical disruption may cause disruption in water supply for hundreds of thousands of people. Localised impact only, well prepared for.

Data: Years of disruption to personal data coming out of the EU

UK Nationals: Disruptions to healthcare for uk citizens on the continent.

Gibraltar: ****ed

Protests: Reduced police resources dealing with protests, counter protests. Increased public disorder

Fuel: Disrupted fuel supply in London and the South-East. Rest of the country OK unless panic buying causes shortages.

Insurance: Minor disruption of cross border payments

The Poor: Low income groups disproportionately affected by above issues.

NI Border: No border model unsustainable. Trade severely disrupted. Businesses stopping trade and relocating. Higher costs for remaining businesses and their customers. Agri-food hardest hit. Disruption to key sectors, Job losses, protests, direct action and road blockages. Growth in black market activity. Most severe in border communities.

Fishing: Lots of EU fishing in UK waters. Clashes between UK and EU fishermen. Reduced enforcement and response capabilities. Violent disputes, Blockading of ports. Increased smuggling and people smuggling.

Social Care: Significant impacts to the fragile adult social care market following inflation. Provider failures. Smaller providers in 2-3 months, larger 4-6 months.

Are certain posters on this forum still "comfortable" with a No Deal Brexit, now that it's in plain English what it actually means....?

 

[dosxuk]

Are certain posters on this forum still "comfortable" with a No Deal Brexit, now that it's in plain English what it actually means....?

Yeah, all that, but soverinity and blue passports is much more important. Who needs clean water when we've all got unicorns.

 

[DarloRich]

Are certain posters on this forum still "comfortable" with a No Deal Brexit, now that it's in plain English what it actually means....?

yes - this will be dismissed as project fear followed by whatever silly line is pumped out by the Brexit principals.

 

[EM2]

I think it was David Davis that said “I see no downsides to Brexit, only a considerable upside”. If Yellowhammer is his considerable upside, thank God there won't be any downsides!

 

[Killingworth]

They’ve tried that before. But the membership outnumber the MPs when it comes to labour leadership elections.

If Corbyn resigned Watson would be interim leader and he's just as likely to alienate voters as Corbyn, just a slightly different set. He inspires no more confidence - and how long would a leadership election take while we're already in chaos?

Boris, and most of the country, can see Labour is a dead loss at the current time, unable to agree a common platform or fight a coherent election. After 31st October they say they'll agree an election. If Boris has achieved a deal and hasn't died in his ditch he'll not need one. But with Labour in disarray he'll probably try for one - and Corbyn will probably have to fall in the trap and back it, or fall into another trap by not backing it.

It's going to be an interesting autumn.

 

[najaB]

But with Labour in disarray he'll probably try for one - and Corbyn will probably have to fall in the trap and back it, or fall into another trap by not backing it.

At that point would it be a trap? The real trap risk was agreeing to an election on the basis that it would be mid-October for Boris to then have a "change of heart" and hold it on October 31st.

Corbin knows that there has to be an election before the end of the year as Boris doesn't have anything close to a working majority, deal or no deal.

 

[Carlisle]

The very group who were persuaded by the charlatans and snake oil salesmen that the reason why they are poor is because of the EU.

True, a side effect of this age of extreme political correctness appears to be that it’s now far easier for rather extremist ideologies in possession of sufficient tools to shout loud enough in the influential public arena, to virtually hijack entire agendas or campaigns