EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by ainsworth74, 23 Jun 2016.

  1. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    The document released is only 6 pages long. It looks like an executive summary at best.

    There is absolutely way this is the complete yellow hammer paperwork.
     
  2. GusB

    GusB Established Member

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  3. Killingworth

    Killingworth Established Member

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    There doesn't have to be an election until May 2022. They can dance around an earlier election to suit themselves but Boris has Corbyn over a barrel. Every indication suggests that with Brexit done the public would hold its collective nose and go for a Tory government over Labour led by Corbyn. That might be enough, but it might not, to get a majority.

    Corbyn now has to try for an election knowing he'll probably lose seats.

    It may be in the interests of both not to have an election and blame the other for being too frightened - which they both are
     
  4. Bantamzen

    Bantamzen Established Member

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    This, this, and thrice this!!

    This has long been the point that has been missed, it is the very people that the leavers & especially Farage have been trying to tap into that will ultimately pay the price of any ill effects of Brexit & a no deal scenario. And Yellowhammer paints a rather bleak picture. I wonder how many leavers will be the first to take to the streets if things do start to pan out this way?

    Definitely not, this looks like a draft of notes written up for a presentation, its even badly photocopied. There will be more, a lot more to come. But what it does portray is a feeling of uncertainty and pessimism that exists in the public, and even private sector right now. And as someone in the public sector I can say that nothing I've seen & heard contradicts the feelings about no deal that Yellowhammer articulates. In fact without saying too much (more than my job's worth etc etc), I'd say that is far from the worst case scenario some seem to be claiming this morning!

    This should be a stark warning for those still demanding Brexit at any cost, because the cost will become theirs. But it won't, Brexit has long since left the realms of politics and is now a religious-like movement, nay it is worse, it is now a death cult.
     
  5. whhistle

    whhistle On Moderation

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    Do people (remainers) seriously think we're going to see mass-wide deaths (more than current)?
    Do people really believe we'll start starving?

    I have always said that it'll be worse before it gets better.
    No doubt in that worse time, remainers will flout that in leavers faces (to what gain, I don't know) without thinking about the real future, in 5 or 10 years time.

    I also dispute the whole "leavers were lied to".
    I doubt hundreds of thousands of people votes leave just because of the big ticket marketing for the leave side. I suspect most people didn't understand what they were voting for (both leave and remain).
    And on the face of it, when have politicians ever told the whole and complete truth?
     
  6. whhistle

    whhistle On Moderation

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    MPs have messed about trying to reverse the decision for 2 years instead of preparing. You cannot blame the fact more people wanted to leave than stay on that. Saw this online:

    To be fair on the chap, he has an excellent point.

    I cannot understand those who voted to remain and because their preferred result didn't win, they now want to change the outcome. Is that how democratic countries work? Why not go all out and have a second referendum. May as well make it best out of three then!

    No referendum or vote will be completely fair and unbiased. If anyone can come up with a way of doing so, I am all ears!

    If the vote gets overturned and we remain, what will that bring us? Companies that have already left won't be coming back. No doubt the EU will impose special terms on us, and without a doubt we'll end up having to pay them more money as compensation for the damage it has brought other countries.

    Instead of leaving of our own free will, I suspect at least one country won't agree to an extension and we'll be out by the 31st - they'll kick us out instead of us leaving. Ugh!

    Funny how laws can be rushed into creation when it suits, yet other things that should be law (like Finns law!) take a silly amount of time and effort to pass through.

    Those MPs who voted remain have something to gain because sure as hell they ain't voting remain for the good of the country! The question is, what will they get out of it?
     
  7. whhistle

    whhistle On Moderation

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    Where has it ever been written that immediately after (and perhaps even 3/4 years after) a no-deal brexit will it be all daisies and sunshine?

    Anyone who thought it would be all fine and we'd carry on as normal is stupid.
    Any remainer who thinks all leavers think we'd have sunshine and roses immediately after is stupid.

    Even with a deal it was going to be rubbish for a while.
    It's what comes after that when it could be loads better. It could be worse too, but NOBODY can predict anything into the far future because - like trying to predict whether you'll fall and break your leg today - it's simply unknown.

    Unknown to remainers is a warning.
    Unknown to leavers is an opportunity.
     
  8. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    A six-page summary does not automatically mean no deal will be horrific. I’d be more interested in documentation outlining potential issues and what the government has done and/or is doing to mitigate against them.

    Any change is likely to have transitional issues associated with it, the key is how those issues are dealt with. There has after all (allegedly!) been three years of work on this.

    So I for one remain comfortable leaving without a deal. As an aside, I love the way you write it as “No Deal Brexit”, putting it that way has a certain ring to it, like “Second World War”!
     
  9. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    What needs to happen is that Labour needs to put a moderate in place as their leader - and one without too much trade-unionist baggage, too. Otherwise there is no way they will ever win an election. I'm thinking Blairite but without the illegal wars.
     
  10. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    It doesn’t help that there now seems to be a certain amount of bickering within Labour. I’m sure this has been the case all along, but up until now it’s been masked by more pressing issues (eg Brexit). I suspect there’s more to play out within Labour, which would no doubt surface during any election campaign.

    An election is pretty much unavoidable as Johnson cannot govern without a majority. However it’s hardly ideal for it to be happening in the middle of Brexit, especially with the plan remaining to leave on 31/10.
     
  11. bramling

    bramling Established Member

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    Two problems - firstly Corbyn doesn’t seem to be going anywhere in the immediate future, and secondly I’m not sure Labour would choose a moderate at the moment. It would only happen after a serious electoral defeat, and at the moment elements of Labour seem to think Corbyn is an asset - no doubt spurred on by his not-quite-as-bad-as-expected performance last time.

    In any case no one quite knows what might happen in a GE, anything is possible at the moment.
     
  12. StaffsWCML

    StaffsWCML Member

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    With the momentum loons in charge there is no hope of Labour getting a decent leader anytime soon. They have some good politicians but most of them are consigned to the back benches by the far left zealots.

    Labours Brexit policy is a sham, its far worse than even Teresa Mays stance. Fair play to her, she got a deal, its probably the best deal the EU will give us, even the idiot McDonnell admitted as much the other day, but Labour voted against it, they now say they would negotiate a different deal and would have to 'concede' some things they want to get a deal, they have other members I saying they would remain.

    I don't agree with Boris's policy but at least it is clear and with a definitive timeline.

    The Lib Dems have been the only ones giving a consistent message, as a person who believe we should remain and their general middle of the road policies there is only one place for my vote.
     
  13. Nagora

    Nagora Member

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  14. Bantamzen

    Bantamzen Established Member

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    The Civil Service very rarely puts out worst case scenarios to Ministers, let alone to the public. You'll have to take my word on this, but this will not be the worst case scenario, just a series of watered down notes from a much lengthier report that will probably make some very grim reading. It will be an epic struggle to get this full fat report out into the public domain anytime soon.
     
  15. DarloRich

    DarloRich Veteran Member

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    This is the governments own documentation. It is now badged as thier reasonable worst case planning assumptions ( not sure how you have a reasonable worst case!). This is the view of the Government. They commissioned and delivered this work. It is hardly project fear.

    That said I note you are trying the sensible brexit line: This is a worst case, short term pain for long term gain scenario. The problem is that while we now know the likely short term pain the long term gain remains nebulous.

    Lets have a look at what the report says:

    • Between 50-85% of UK lorries travelling to the EU may not be ready for French customs
    • Lack of readiness and limited space in French ports could cut HGV traffic by 40-60% and lead to disruption lasting three months
    • This would lead to significant queues in Kent. In a worst-case scenario, it could take lorries up to two-and-a-half days before being able to cross into France
    • Certain types of fresh food supply will decrease
    • Key ingredients may be in shorter supply
    • There will not be an overall shortage of food in the UK, but may be reduced availability and choice
    • Prices may increase "which could impact vulnerable groups"
    • Supply chains for medicines and medical products are "particularly vulnerable" to disruption at the Channel ports
    • That our ability to compact an outbreak of disease ( in humans or animals) will be reduced during this period
    • While some products can be stockpiled, others cannot because they have a short shelf life
    • It will not be practical to stockpile products to cover expected delays of up to six months
    • An increase in inflation would "significantly impact" adult social care providers and may lead to some failing, with smaller providers impacted within two-three months.
    • There will be no immediate disruption to electricity or gas supplies
    • However, there are likely to be significant price rises if the UK splits from the EU single energy market, which could happen months or years after Brexit
    • This could lead to some energy companies leaving the market
    • Public water supplies are likely to remain largely unaffected but that may change if chemicals are unavailable
    • The government's planned short-term solution for the border is likely to be unsustainable because of the "economic, legal and biosecurity risks" it presents
    • Trade between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic will be "severely disrupted"
    • Some businesses will stop trading, some will move and some will experience higher costs that they may pass on to customers
    • Agriculture will be hardest hit, leading to job losses, protests and direct action with road blockages
    • Growth of the "illegitimate economy" around the border "where criminal and dissident groups already operate"
    • Protests and counter-protests likely across the UK
    • May be a rise in public disorder and community tensions
    • Information-sharing between UK and EU law enforcement will be disrupted
    To paraphrase: We should have water, the lights should stay on, we will have some (but not) all food ( and we cant tell what that food will be), but people might panic and strip shops of what food there is, there might be some medicines but there might also be riots and less police to deal with them and everything will cost more and we cant really tell you how long this disruption will go on. Oh and Ireland will be a $hitshow. Great.

    I hope the long term gain is bloody good because that is quite a bit of short term pain for a sodding blue passport!


    The title of the document has changed from the initial leaks. Those documents were marked "base case" and is now marked "reasonable worst case planning assumptions". I am sure you can explain better than me what those phrases mean in civil service doucmentation.
     
    Last edited: 12 Sep 2019 at 15:20
  16. Bantamzen

    Bantamzen Established Member

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    In layman's terms it means "The Prime Minister doesn't need the really bad news and I'm sure as hell not sticking my head above the trench, but we are struggling to come up any good news about no deal. So let's just say that the really bad report is not the 'what we think will happen in the case of no deal', and call it the 'what we think if the worst happens' and hope he doesn't notice that by 'the worst happens' we mean a no deal scenario.".....
     
  17. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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  18. FelixtheCat

    FelixtheCat Established Member

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    Actually, we don't have to take your word for it. The whistleblowers and others who helped write the report describe it as "the most likely scenario and not the worst case" (such as Dr. David Nicoll, the one who Jacob Rees-Mogg insulted, slandered and then had to issue an apology to).
     
  19. Nagora

    Nagora Member

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    Which every child over the age of 6 knows they can't do if no-deal is off the table. You can't negotiate if the opponent knows you have no choice but to take whatever they offer. Why do remainers persist in thinking everyone else doesn't see understand this patently obvious lie?

    Try asking your boss for a raise if s/he knows that your rent has just gone up and you've been looking for a job for months without success. It's a bad joke.

    And what would be the point of waiting for another few months? We've had years of this. Did you not notice?

    Well, again, we all know that will just mean Remaining because those who want to leave want to do so for different reasons, while those that want to remain are basically united. If there's more than one leave option then remain will be the largest share of the vote even if the leave options are in the majority - so the Remain camp will insist that they won and if anyone objects on any grounds, they will throw their toys out of the pram again.

    The alternative is that there will be one option for leaving on the paper which will be carefully picked to be as unpalatable as possible - this is the EU's standard operating proceedure for re-running votes that went the wrong way. Only lunatics will vote for that and, again Remain gets what they wanted - to overturn the democratic referendum decision.

    There's nothing daft about it in the context of YEARS of this hollow posturing dragging on. February 1st is no less arbitrary, nor is 1st May or whatever the next pointless delay would be after that.

    He can't negotiate a deal with this parliament opposing him, that's all there is to it and why we need an election - as you well know. The EU will just offer the same take-it-or-leave it deal that parliament has rejected three times. What you *mean* is that he should take the very sensible step of ignoring the majority vote and doing what you want him to do instead. Because you're special or something, I suppose. When the people get it wrong, send in the technocrats to beat the hell out of them economically until they see sense and vote the right way. Just like in Ireland. Just like Italy. Just like Spain. Just like Greece. And just like Argentina. If anyone objects, wrap yourself in the EU flag and sing empty words about Euopean ideals you abandoned decades ago.

    They don't really. There are countries that have them, but they're not managing well as far as I can see. They have a lot of trouble with stymied and ineffective governments. You know, like the one we have now.

    That's not an advantage, IMO. I understand why the hopeless LibDems liked the idea, they only look good for about ten minutes at a time every 20 years. This at least gives them a slim chance that the election will fall during that sliver of a window.
     
  20. Mag_seven

    Mag_seven Established Member

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    Which we could have had anyway inside the EU!
     
  21. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    I'm not sure how we could persuade the other side that we are, once again, seriously willing to leave with on agreement, given the divisions that have been laid plain over recent months.

    Even if we were to succeed, they still have the come-back of "fine, you want to leave? It'll hurt you more than it'll hurt us, go ahead".
     
  22. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    No deal would only work as a credible threat if it hurt them at least as much as it hurt us.

    "If you don't agree I'll stamp on your foot and shoot myself in the head" doesn't really work.
     
  23. krus_aragon

    krus_aragon Established Member

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    I've already got one blue passport (through dual citizenship), I don't need two the same colour: that'll just lead to confusion!
     
  24. nidave

    nidave Member

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    Why should we suffer when there is no need to.
     
  25. dosxuk

    dosxuk Member

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    How about we put the government's decided upon route to a vote then? Remain vs no-deal or remain vs May's deal. That won't be a carefully picked unpalatable option - it'll be what we all have to live with once this goes through.

    You seem to assume remain would win, but if they do, wouldn't that mean that the majority of people don't want to leave after all and maybe we shouldn't go ahead with the plan? Wouldn't that be, er, democratic?
     
  26. oliMw

    oliMw Member

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    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1171897495837925376

    This Brexiteer logic really grinds me. I like blueberries, I like being able to buy them from the supermarket when I want, why would I want limit access something I currently have unlimited access too.

    Of course the problem gets more severe when we change blueberries for medicine.
     
  27. Bantamzen

    Bantamzen Established Member

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    To put it in simple terms, no deal will hurt our economy hard. It will cost consumers more, it will cause problems for importers and exporters to & from the EU, it will potentially lose people's jobs, and put the UK towards the bottom of the developed world's economic table. No deal is a daft, no stupid position to defend. Yes it will not be beneficial to the EU, but to us it will be way more damaging. So trying to use a negotiating position that would leave you worse off than any other scenario is daft, nay reckless.

    Let us remember it was those 17.4 million people that chose to leave the EU without fully understanding the potential consequences and pitfalls. It was the 17.4 million that voted for a process undefined in 2016 let alone 2019. It was the 17.4 million people that voted for what right now amounts to nothing more than a vanity project. As things stand the UK stands to gain little to nothing from a no deal scenario (something that wasn't even on the table when 17.4 million people voted for), and to lose a heck of a lot more. And yet some leavers continue to play the blame game, remainers, MPs, media, Facebook, that bus driver this morning. To put it very bluntly, it is time those hard core Brexiteers woke the heck up, stop dreaming of rhetoric driven promises of rainbows and unicorns and take stock of exactly where we are.

    If you want Brexit, you had better get used to the fact it will not be what you dreamed of, because you didn't vote for how or when. Deal with it.
     
  28. Arctic Troll

    Arctic Troll Established Member

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    That's why the Ronseal Reichsführer is so keen to label everyone as Remoaner Traitors. When the effluence hits the air blower it'll not be Brexitists' fault, it'll be everyone else's fault. And the solution will be to punish the traitors and "enemies of the people". Straight from the Fascist Playbook.
     
  29. Arctic Troll

    Arctic Troll Established Member

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    No Deal only works as a negotiating tactic if they will lose more than you will. Whichever way you slice it, that simply isn't true. No Deal will hurt us a lot more than it'll hurt the EU- not only will it damage our trade with the EU, it'll leave us as a sitting duck when negotiating with other countries.
    Why do you think an election will change anything? The "referendum mandate" to Leave was 1.8%. Assuming the General Election follows the same, it'd leave Leave with a majority of about 10. As we've already seen, Leavers can't agree amongst themselves- if they did, we'd have left under May's deal as they had the numbers with a majority of about 10- which immediately undermines any idea that an election will solve anything.

    Remain will alwsys oppose No Deal and are likely to oppose most deals. So if Leave can't unite around a compromise- and they can't, as Rees-Mogg and his ilk don't want to compromise- then we'll remain in limbo.

    This is the problem with all this WILL OF THE PEOPLE claptrap. You don't get to throw your weight around like Billy Big B*ll*cks when your mandate is 1.8%.
     
  30. Killingworth

    Killingworth Established Member

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    Trouble is a large number of the 16.1 million who voted remain were just as ignorant as the 17.4 million who voted to leave, the reasoning of many going no further than opposition to any change.

    It's possible the 12.9 million who didn't vote got it most right by abstaining. It was too difficult a subject to be decided by a flawed referendum campaign.

    As the clock ticks away we are headed for some sort of cobbled together deal. An election would add more confusion. Another referendum would probably be won by the"just get on with it" lobby, many of those remain voters who didn't want change would take a similar attitude by not wanting to go against the bombast of the Brexiteers.

    If Corbyn goes for an election once we're out he'll lose. If Boris goes along with an opposition vote for an election before 31st October I have every expectation that the Labour Party would self destruct in its indecision on which way to face.

    My personal view is that we should remain but I can't see how a coherent government can be put in place to deliver it at this late stage. We're about to enter the damage limitation phase before we make the most of where we'll soon be. At least we haven't been hit by a hurricane and we have lots of younger people who will make the most of it, as we did after WW2. We may even avoid rationing and power cuts. Chins up.
     

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