EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Howardh]

Agree. This is an interesting article - https://www.facebook.com/tom.short.351/posts/10155134392909152 - not sure I agree with its conclusion (that the UK won't ever actually invoke article 50), but it contains some very interesting ideas. The next prime minister will not have an easy or pleasant job, and risks being seen as the most disastrous in history.

Love it. "Cameron has stabbed Boris in the front"!

Yes, indeed, Brexit have been handed a nuclear bomb they can't use. Will the next PM want to preside over the dismantling of the United Kingdom and the erupting volcano that is Ireland, or will he abandon Brexit and face the wrath of 52% of the voting population (or the eternal thanks of the remaining 48)?

What a movie all this will make.
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The EU as a whole.
This article explains it pretty well: http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/the-mechanics-of-leaving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/

Thanks, I'll read it tomorrow. I voted for beer

 

[anme]

Once some kind of exit has been decided, do we put that to the vote though?

Good question. I think the future strategy - EEA membership, isolation, etc - would be a good candidate for a referendum, or more likely for confirmation at a general election (along with any alternative strategies from other parties).

Before that, each party will need to agree among themselves what to do next. That will be a messy discussion - maybe even more divisive than the question of EU membership. Will the Tories be able to agree? Will anyone else?

I don't see that the eventual agreement on withdrawal could usefully be put to a vote. After triggering article 50, the UK has two years to reach agreement with the EU on the terms of withdrawal. Whatever is agreed (if anything) will be on a take it or leave it basis for the UK, with the alternative being continuing negotiations after exit - meaning that the UK would have no trade deal at all with the EU for a while, and the position of people under freedom of movement rules, etc, would be unresolved, and probably 100s of other uncertainties too.

 

[bb21]

Love it. "Cameron has stabbed Boris in the front"!

Yes, indeed, Brexit have been handed a nuclear bomb they can't use. Will the next PM want to preside over the dismantling of the United Kingdom and the erupting volcano that is Ireland, or will he abandon Brexit and face the wrath of 52% of the voting population (or the eternal thanks of the remaining 48)?

What a movie all this will make.

You see, there is always a silver lining however downbeat one might feel.

I will have popcorn ready and someone else can bring the fizzy drinks.

 

[OhNoAPacer]

This is the problem with only being able to say yes or no to what was a very complicated question.
At least voting Remain meant, to a large extent, one knew what one was voting for.
Voting Leave, well there are a variety of leaves, and no way of knowing which of them would have the majority support, especially if we then add back into the mix what those who voted to Remain would like to see, Leave may have won, but the Remain voters are still entitled to a say about what leave is going to look like.
It may well be that, depending on what the final leave looks like, that some who voted Leave may have preferred to Remain, and I guess that potentially some who voted to Remain may have voted Leave.
To be honest I don't see how we can have whatever position ends up as the final 'This is what we want leave to be' foisted upon us without it being put to some form of vote. I believe that would have, what was the phrase? Oh yes, a democratic deficit.

 

[ainsworth74]

Once some kind of exit has been decided, do we put that to the vote though?

As far as I'm aware that is impossible. Once Article 50 is triggered you're leaving the EU either with an agreement on what happens afterwards (which we wouldn't be able to directly negotiate on as it's a EU decision) or at the end of two years (unless a unanimous decision is made to extend the period) we'd be out with no agreement and would then need to negotiate an agreement from the outside.

So there is nothing to vote on as we will be leaving whether we like the deal or not.

Alternately we could do things unilaterally and just quit by repealing the legislation that underpins our membership but that's hardly likely to be conducive to then negotiating a good deal.

 

[Harbornite]

You see, there is always a silver lining however downbeat one might feel.

I will have popcorn ready and someone else can bring the fizzy drinks.

Do you want Pepsi? Anyway, regarding who will be our next Fuhrer, anything is better than Corbyn, apart from Farage.

 

[Howardh]

This is the problem with only being able to say yes or no to what was a very complicated question.
At least voting Remain meant, to a large extent, one knew what one was voting for.
Voting Leave, well there are a variety of leaves, and no way of knowing which of them would have the majority support, especially if we then add back into the mix what those who voted to Remain would like to see, Leave may have won, but the Remain voters are still entitled to a say about what leave is going to look like.
It may well be that, depending on what the final leave looks like, that some who voted Leave may have preferred to Remain, and I guess that potentially some who voted to Remain may have voted Leave.
To be honest I don't see how we can have whatever position ends up as the final 'This is what we want leave to be' foisted upon us without it being put to some form of vote. I believe that would have, what was the phrase? Oh yes, a democratic deficit.

Sir Humphrey lives on! Actually it's a great piece that underlines the current mess. nearest I can come up with is....
"Do you want to marry Brenda, yes/no".
"No".
"Okay then, here's your new wife, Norah".
"Oh my gawd, why didn't you show me the picture before I said no to Brenda??"

 

[Darren R]

As far as I'm aware that is impossible. Once Article 50 is triggered you're leaving the EU either with an agreement on what happens afterwards (which we wouldn't be able to directly negotiate on as it's a EU decision) or at the end of two years (unless a unanimous decision is made to extend the period) we'd be out with no agreement and would then need to negotiate an agreement from the outside.

So there is nothing to vote on as we will be leaving whether we like the deal or not.

Alternately we could do things unilaterally and just quit by repealing the legislation that underpins our membership but that's hardly likely to be conducive to then negotiating a good deal.

That is correct - once Article 50 has been officially invoked, after two years the UK is out whether agreement has been reached by all sides or not.

It may be useful to quote what Article 50 of The Lisbon Treaty actually has to say:

Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

 

[Gutfright]

Right, I'm three sheets to the wind atm, but I'll try to explain my position as best I can.

When you vote in a general election or a referendum, you're not voting to control every single decision which is made. You're voting to decide who makes those decisions.

By voting Brexit, the country has decided that our decisions will be made by HM Gummint, not by the EU.

There's no point asking Brexit voters "What happens next?" The only answer we can give is "That's for the Gummint to decide". It's not very reassuring, I'll grant you that, but all we can do is wait and see.

What I will say is that signing up to the EEA, and free movement would be seen as a betrayal of the people. That's not to say it won't happen. The government has betrayed it's people before, and I dare say it will happen again.

Personally, I would like to see us get access to the single market while retaining control over our borders. You don't think that can happen? Fine, we'll have to agree to the disagree. We can debate about it until the cows come home, it won't change a gosh darn thing. What will happen will happen.

I think I'm correct in saying that most Brexit voters knew that our country would feel the hurt in the short term, but we believed that in the long term leaving was the right thing to do.

Remain voters have a choice. You can continue to be as salty af, you can spread your predictions of doom and gloom if it makes you feel better. Or you can grow up, and wait to see the actual, real world results of Brexit and then deliver your verdict.

Also, you can continue to get in slanging matches with Antman if that's how you want to spend your time, but when so many people are ganging up on him it becomes indistinguishable from bullying.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Now we can do this another six times like he would, or you can accept that this is a problem of the government's making and not the voters.

So why on earth did people vote for the unknown, when they knew that no one had any idea as to how things would turn out?

In other words, why did people vote for uncertainty?
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What I will say is that signing up to the EEA, and free movement would be seen as a betrayal of the people. That's not to say it won't happen. The government has betrayed it's people before, and I dare say it will happen again.

Personally, I would like to see us get access to the single market while retaining control over our borders. You don't think that can happen? Fine, we'll have to agree to the disagree. We can debate about it until the cows come home, it won't change a gosh darn thing. What will happen will happen.

So how on earth do you think the UK Government is going to be able to agree trade agreements with Europe without agreeing to things such as free movement of people? Do you not think that the EU will make some demands from us in return for access to the free market? Did you not even consider this before voting to leave the EU?

 

[Gutfright]

So why on earth did people vote for the unknown, when they knew that no one had any idea as to how things would turn out?

In other words, why did people vote for uncertainty?

Because the status quo just wasn't working, especially for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum.

It's pretty appalling that you even have to ask that question. It just shows how completely out of touch you are in your well off little bubble.

So how on earth do you think the UK Government is going to be able to agree trade agreements with Europe without agreeing to things such as free movement of people? Do you not think that the EU will make some demands from us in return for access to the free market? Did you not even consider this before voting to leave the EU?

You don't think that we can negotiate trade agreements without free movement.

I disagree.

Time will tell which one of us is right.

If you want to get all salty because the vote didn't go your way, that's up to you. I don't see what it achieves myself, but it's your life live it however you wanna.

 

[Domh245]

You don't think that we can negotiate trade agreements without free movement.

I disagree.

...

If you want to get all salty because the vote didn't go your way, that's up to you. I don't see what it achieves myself, but it's your life live it however you wanna.

Junker seems to be trying to take a very hard approach, and given that all existing deals have included free movement in return for access to the free market, I will be amazed if we somehow end up with the situation you describe.

Ps, calling people salty is quite immature, and doesn't really add to the debate.

------------------------------------

Anywho, trying to get away from debate for a minute, and instead giving some lovely juicy data, Sky have published a turnout percentage by age, and it makes for depressing reading.

% who got through our final #EUref poll turnout filter by age group:

18-24: 36%
25-34: 58%
35-44: 72%
45-54: 75%
55-64: 81%
65+: 83%

Trying to think about it, I wonder if this is in part related to university votes. A lot of Uni students will have been registered in 2 locations (but we can only vote in one location for a nationwide referendum), and so this might have had an effect on how this was calculated.

Either way, all of the shouting about being betrayed by the elderly, whilst in part grounded in some truth, are also comical to read now. Immediately after the referendum, I felt disappointed with ~half the country, but it now seems that I also have to be disappointed with 60% of people my age.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Because the status quo just wasn't working, especially for those at the lower end of the economic spectrum.

It's pretty appalling that you even have to ask that question. It just shows how completely out of touch you are in your well off little bubble.

I don't live in a bubble, I live in the same country as you. The difference is unlike you I have an understanding of economics and more than a grasp of reality.

You have effectively voted to leave economic stability. You can see that by how the money markets have reacted to a Brexit and yet those of us who thought things through knew this would happen a long time a go. Which precisely why I voted to stay in the EU.

You will now have to watch as investment and ultimately jobs are transferred from the UK to the rest of Europe. And all because you and many others voted for Brexit without considering the implications of your decision.

 

[Gutfright]

I don't live in a bubble, I live in the same country as you. The difference is unlike you I have an understanding of economics and more than a grasp of reality.

You have effectively voted to leave economic stability. You can see that by how the money markets have reacted to a Brexit and yet those of us who thought things through knew this would happen a long time a go. Which precisely why I voted to stay in the EU.

You will now have to watch as investment and ultimately jobs are transferred from the UK to the rest of Europe. And all because you and many others voted for Brexit without considering the implications of your decision.

I think the majority of Brexit voters knew that in the short term there would be a bit of hurt, but we considered that a price worth paying.

As for your dire predictions for the future, you have not yet done enough to convince me you have psychic powers so I'll wait and see what happens before making judgement.

 

[RichmondCommu]

I think the majority of Brexit voters knew that in the short term there would be a bit of hurt, but we considered that a price worth paying.

Ah, so you did willingly vote for uncertainty. I'm interested to know how you begin to quantify a "bit of hurt" or indeed "the short term". Does a "bit of hurt" include high interest rates and the implications for those with mortgages.

Does a "bit of hurt" include people losing their jobs when production is transferred to the EU? Is potentially losing your job a price worth paying?

 

[GatwickDepress]

Quite a few Leave voters at work seemed pretty disheartened by the £350m a week for the NHS lie; with some even saying they won't bother about voting or paying attention to the next general election.

 

[RichmondCommu]

As for your dire predictions for the future, you have not yet done enough to convince me you have psychic powers so I'll wait and see what happens before making judgement.

I tell you what, if you don't believe what I'm saying go and read up on the plans that European multi nationals are making now that we have voted for Brexit.

Why not read how Volkswagen are considering moving production of Bentley cars from this country to Dresden.

Or how Nissan will be now be making new models in France because of pressure from it's partner Renault.

Or how new Toyota hybrid cars will now not be manufactured in the UK. Following the vote for Brexit this will now be announced in the next few months.

The same can be said for Airbus which will now divert investment to plants in the EU following a Brexit.

Expect Easyjet to move many of its operations to the EU as well.

And yet according to you this is a price worth paying.
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Quite a few Leave voters at work seemed pretty disheartened by the £350m a week for the NHS lie; with some even saying they won't bother about voting or paying attention to the next general election.

Well its too late now, the damage is done. Perhaps they should have thought more carefully before making their decision.
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You don't think that we can negotiate trade agreements without free movement.

I disagree.

In that case how do you think we will be able to negotiate trade agreements without a bit of give and take? Or have you not thought of that?

 

[jon0844]

A price worth paying so that one day we can become 'great' again, and live life like the old days.

Yeah, that sounds sensible. Let's have our homes repossessed and put more people on welfare, and hope that after a while everything sorts itself out.

People have a problem with immigration - clearly. They're now telling foreigners in the street, in restaurants and even in their own homes (via notes posted through letterboxes), that soon they'll be going home, and are claiming a victory against immigrants. Including those who aren't from the EU.

Well, if the Poles go home one day they'll be returning to a country with an improving economy, and will find work in the other member states. They'll do just fine.

What about us?

 

[Gutfright]

I thought that remain would win the referendum quite easily. The moment I started to realise that leave would do it was when someone on the BBC mentioned that many people from council estates had voted.

If we want to make sure that future votes go the correct way, we have to work out how to disenfranchise Britain's poorest people.

 

[RichmondCommu]

If you want to get all salty because the vote didn't go your way, that's up to you. I don't see what it achieves myself, but it's your life live it however you wanna.

As I don't have my Gutfright phrase book to hand you'll have to explain to me what "all salty" means. I'm disappointed that the referendum has gone the way of Brexit because of the economic damage that it will do to our country. Something which you could clearly not care less about.
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I thought that remain would win the referendum quite easily. The moment I started to realise that leave would do it was when someone on the BBC mentioned that many people from council estates had voted.

If we want to make sure that future votes go the correct way, we have to work out how to disenfranchise Britain's poorest people.

However under Brexit the poor will only get poorer. I'm sorry to say this but we are going to lose an awful lot of blue collar jobs because of this and that will have obvious knock on effects to everyone else in their communities.
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A price worth paying so that one day we can become 'great' again, and live life like the old days.

Yeah, that sounds sensible. Let's have our homes repossessed and put more people on welfare, and hope that after a while everything sorts itself out.

People have a problem with immigration - clearly. They're now telling foreigners in the street, in restaurants and even in their own homes (via notes posted through letterboxes), that soon they'll be going home, and are claiming a victory against immigrants. Including those who aren't from the EU.

Well, if the Poles go home one day they'll be returning to a country with an improving economy, and will find work in the other member states. They'll do just fine.

What about us?

Well exactly. What on earth have we done?

 

[jon0844]

2.7m people have signed the petition for a new referendum. Now I know it won't happen, but that's a lot of people and not all will be those who are sore losers. They're people who have had a 'what the **** did I just do?' moment.

Well, it's too late now. You voted, and better like the fact that we're now seeing Gove and Johnson in a near state of panic and not knowing exactly what to do now. What we're almost certainly going to do is try and keep a trade agreement and a movement of people. Somewhat opposite of what many voters wanted.

Nobody will be happy by the end of it.

 

[Gutfright]

I tell you what, if you don't believe what I'm saying go and read up on the plans that European multi nationals are making now that we have voted for Brexit.

Why not read how Volkswagen are considering moving production of Bentley cars from this country to Dresden.

Or how Nissan will be now be making new models in France because of pressure from it's partner Renault.

Or how new Toyota hybrid cars will now not be manufactured in the UK. Following the vote for Brexit this will now be announced in the next few months.

The same can be said for Airbus which will now divert investment to plants in the EU following a Brexit.

Expect Easyjet to move many of its operations to the EU as well.

And yet according to you this is a price worth paying.

All speculation at the moment. I'm going to wait and see what actually happens before getting all hysterical.

You're more than welcome to get your knickers in a twist if that's what you want to do though. It's a free country

IIn that case how do you think we will be able to negotiate trade agreements without a bit of give and take? Or have you not thought of that?

There will be a bit of give and take, but we're not a tiny little loser country like Norway and we don't have to accept free movement. Junker will want to make an example of the UK, but ultimately I don't expect them to cut off their nose to spite their face.

 

[RichmondCommu]

All speculation at the moment. I'm going to wait and see what actually happens before getting all hysterical.

Are you familiar with the expression no smoke without fire? So without checking what I've posted your simply prepared to dismiss it? Lets wait for the job losses and then see what you have to say about it.

 

[Gutfright]

Are you familiar with the expression no smoke without fire? So without checking what I've posted your simply prepared to dismiss it? Lets wait for the job losses and then see what you have to say about it.

I'm fine with that. Let's revisit this thread next year?

 

[RichmondCommu]

There will be a bit of give and take, but we're not a tiny little loser country like Norway and we don't have to accept free movement. Junker will want to make an example of the UK, but ultimately I don't expect them to cut off their nose to spite their face.

On what evidence do you describe Norway as a "tiny little loser country" Are you suggesting that Norway doesn't have a successful economy? If you're not prepared to except free movement how else do you expect to negotiate trade agreements?
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I'm fine with that. Let's revisit this thread next year?

I dare say the thread will keep going between now and then as the economic prospects get worse. Oh well, according to you it's a price worth paying.

 

[Gutfright]

On what evidence do you describe Norway as a "tiny little loser country" Are you suggesting that Norway doesn't have a successful economy? If you're not prepared to except free movement how else do you expect to negotiate trade agreements?

Erm dude, do you expect the EU to launch a trade embargo against us? Of course we're going to trade they can't afford not to.

Remember the Italian banking crisis is a thing. They need all the money they can get their hands on. They simply can't afford to play silly beggars.

I dare say the thread will keep going between now and then as the economic prospects get worse. Oh well, according to you it's a price worth paying.

You've not yet demonstrated to my satisfaction that you have the ability to see into the future, so I'll take your claims of doom and gloom with a pinch of salt.

Luckily, there's an abundance of salt from the remain side.

 

[RichmondCommu]

You've not yet demonstrated to my satisfaction that you have the ability to see into the future, so I'll take your claims of doom and gloom with a pinch of salt.

Luckily, there's an abundance of salt from the remain side.

You'll no doubt be aware that Moody's have cut our credit rating to negative. I'm assuming that you understand the implications that this has for our economy? How many more warning signs do you need before you wake up?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I do hope that the time period afforded to us as a result of the British referendum decision will be one used wisely in terms of the requirement entailed in negotiation matters of leaving the EU.

Allowing for the shock-waves that decision spread amongst the other member states of the EU, it will be interesting to see how certain of those countries will now adopt a much harder position towards the role of Britain in any subsequent negotiations.
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You'll no doubt be aware that Moody's have cut our credit rating to negative. I'm assuming that you understand the implications that this has for our economy? How many more warning signs do you need before you wake up?

I feel, like you, there are those in Britain who have a lesser understanding than both of us on the implication of such matters and therefore a lack of any comprehension of what that decision actually means.

 

[Gutfright]

You'll no doubt be aware that Moody's have cut our credit rating to negative. I'm assuming that you understand the implications that this has for our economy? How many more warning signs do you need before you wake up?

These are uncertain times. Nobody really knows what will happen next.

From a psychological standpoint I completely understand why you are so desperate to convince yourself that you do.

So I'm not going to tell you that you're not psychic. I'm not going to tell you you cannot see into the future.

Because that would just be cruel.

I feel, like you, there are those in Britain who have a lesser understanding than both of us on the implication of such matters and therefore a lack of any comprehension of what that decision actually means.

Putting your blatant snobbery to one side, we had a system that wasn't working for the majority, and they replaced it with something you don't like.

That's democracy.

If you don't want decisions like this to occur again, work out a way to disenfranchise Britain's poorest citizens.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

When you vote in a general election or a referendum, you're not voting to control every single decision which is made. You're voting to decide who makes those decisions.

Funny thing is my ballot paper didn't have the name of any candidate whatsoever on it, just two alternative answers to a simple question. Now when I do have to choose between actual people I don't decide on the basis of what their name is or whether I like their picture in their election material. I have to reflect on which party they're affiliated to, what policies they espouse, what track record they have and so on. In other words a little homework is required even if that doesn't go beyond watching the tv news during the election campaign. A referendum also requires such homework but the significant difference is that the outcome is not designed to determine which individuals get to make decisions on our behalf. So that means we have to consider the potential consequences of the options on offer. In another thread I commented that the Leavers were being disingenuous in making claims that they would be in no position to deliver; evidently some voters were swayed by this and are now disappointed at having been misled.

There will be a bit of give and take, but we're not a tiny little loser country like Norway and we don't have to accept free movement. Junker will want to make an example of the UK, but ultimately I don't expect them to cut off their nose to spite their face.

Wow! Talk about ignorant. That would be the same Norway with huge gas reserves of which it consumes a tiny amount thanks to abundant hydro-electric power and so has just about the highest standard of living in Europe in spite of funding a generous welfare system.

As for Junker it's already clear that he is by no means alone. The foreign ministers of the EEC's six founder members have all come out making equally stark statements, though that could of course be an initial bargaining position.

I tell you what, if you don't believe what I'm saying go and read up on the plans that European multi nationals are making now that we have voted for Brexit.

Why not read how Volkswagen are considering moving production of Bentley cars from this country to Dresden.

Or how Nissan will be now be making new models in France because of pressure from it's partner Renault.

Or how new Toyota hybrid cars will now not be manufactured in the UK. Following the vote for Brexit this will now be announced in the next few months.

The same can be said for Airbus which will now divert investment to plants in the EU following a Brexit.

Expect Easyjet to move many of its operations to the EU as well.

Care to provide any links for these as I've been unable to substantiate your claims. The most recent news about VW's Dresden plant was that following the end of production of its high performance Phaeton model it was going to become a centre for digital technology. The Nissan and Toyota situation is directly linked to the fact that France has become the strongest market in Europe for electric cars, a situation boosted by the recent fuel shortages. Airbus' factory here makes the wings for all its current models; given the enormous costs of aviation manufacture they're not going to up sticks at the drop of a hat. Easyjet are unlikely to move operations away from the UK, they're a British company after all. However they may very well follow Ryanair in deciding not to carry out any further expansion here, but that's not the same thing.