EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[ComUtoR]

News Alert....

Donald Tusk proposing a 'flextension' of months.

https://news.sky.com/story/donald-tusk-prepared-to-offer-year-long-flextension-on-brexit-11684645

The EU could offer a year-long extension on Brexit with a clause to allow the UK to leave early if a deal is struck, Sky News has learned.

Donald Tusk, the EU council president, has told officials the only "reasonable" way out of the Brexit deadlock in parliament is to allow another year for talks.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-b...le-extension-to-brexit-date-bbc-idUKKCN1RH0FR

(Reuters) - European Council President Donald Tusk is proposing to make an offer of a 12-month “flexible” extension to the UK’s Brexit date, the BBC reported on Friday, citing a senior European Union source.

The plan would let UK leave sooner if the British parliament ratifies a deal but will need to be agreed by EU leaders next week at a summit, the BBC said.

 

[radamfi]

It's not, but probably won't make it worse either.

What if there is no longer a reciprocal health agreement? Yes, many people could get insurance, but some people cannot be insured at reasonable cost and therefore would be unable to travel, unless they were willing to "pay as you go" if treatment is needed abroad.

 

[404250]

What if there is no longer a reciprocal health agreement? Yes, many people could get insurance, but some people cannot be insured at reasonable cost and therefore would be unable to travel, unless they were willing to "pay as you go" if treatment is needed abroad.

Very unlikely - there'll be an agreement. Why would the EU want to lose UK tourists and vice versa?

 

[gysev]

I wonder which country will have the ***** to vote NO against the extension.

Looking at this sad joke from Belgium, I fear that a lot of countries have had enough. The British tabloids are constantly bashing Donald Tusk and Juncker (calling them "filthy rats", remember?), but I doubt I would have the energy to stay as diplomatic and patient as they do.

Fact is: the European elections are coming. There are many important issues in the EU that have to be dealt with, but these are now on hold because the UK doesn't seem to know what it wants. All time and energy are wasted on a country that can't make up its mind. Another extension means that these elections will again be dominated by Brexit. That is unacceptable for a lot of people.

A no-deal Brexit will cause a lot of trouble (including for Belgium, it would be a serious risk for Zeebrugge), but the way the UK government is behaving right now seems to be inspired by Monty Pyton and Blackadder... The UK always had the reputation of being "difficult" within the EU and I think most people would be glad when an extension is refused.

 

[truffy]

If there is this much commotion before Brexit, can't really imagine what it would be like after it, it seems more about underlying forces of gradual social collapse than the best interest of one country or another.

 

[DarloRich]

Very unlikely - there'll be an agreement. Why would the EU want to lose UK tourists and vice versa?

A no-deal Brexit will cause a lot of trouble (including for Belgium, it would be a serious risk for Zeebrugge), but the way the UK government is behaving right now seems to be inspired by Monty Pyton and Blackadder... The UK always had the reputation of being "difficult" within the EU and I think most people would be glad when an extension is refused.

I think we will get another extension ( and personally I think it should be a long one) but i don't think we will get anymore. There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth but the Irish border issue will drive the EU response as will a desire to be seen to (rightly as they remain part of the club) support Ireland. They seem to be the only people taking this seriously. The much maligned EU seem to be the only ones actually trying to deploy diplomacy and pragmatism. We must look like a nation of swivel eyed loons!

lets not forget that we haven't even managed to sort out starting to leave yet let alone worked out what our future relationship will be!

 

[takno]

Very unlikely - there'll be an agreement. Why would the EU want to lose UK tourists and vice versa?

It's not worth the paperwork to have an agreement just for tourists, the UK is absolutely obsessed with and terrified by largely imaginary health tourism anyway, and the EU see it as intimately tied up with freedom of movement. A mutual agreement on health is one of the least likely things for us to end up with.

 

[Howardh]

It's not, but probably won't make it worse either.

Probably?? Losing the EHIC card will push up travel insurance for starters! What happens if my agency can't provide carers - two EU's have left since the new year, and they are forever complaining of not enough staff; if imported EU food has tariffs then the cost will increase = higher inflation. I'm really struggling to find one solitary benefit, and there would need to be several in order to replace all the stuff we lose. Even our sodding blue passport will be useless in Europe without the ETIAS form when that kicks in in 2021 (unless by some miracle we can negotiate our way out of it).

 

[Howardh]

News Alert....

Donald Tusk proposing a 'flextension' of months.
https://news.sky.com/story/donald-tusk-prepared-to-offer-year-long-flextension-on-brexit-11684645
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-b...le-extension-to-brexit-date-bbc-idUKKCN1RH0FR

Not sure whether it was this forum (probably not!) but someone kept answering every difficult Brexit question with "we're leaving on March 29th". How foolish they were...unless, of course, they means March 29th 2029.

 

[radamfi]

There are reciprocal health agreements with certain countries outside the EU/EEA

https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/he...lling-outside-the-european-economic-area-eea/

But how easy is it to get treatment under these agreements compared to using the EHIC?

 

[ComUtoR]

How foolish they were...unless, of course, they means March 29th 2029.

Theresa May stated quite clearly we were leaving on the 29th of May - Then we got an extension.
We have been told that the extension came with caveats and 2 binding dates to leave April 12th if we didn't agree her deal and 22nd May if we agreed any deal.
Now Ms May has been told to get ask for another extension. Tusk has stated about a year will be granted, May has asked for until June :/

Which date should we accept as facts ? If we get a year then I dread another year of procrastination and infighting, general election, more bickering and probably another delay; even though Tusk stated it would be an automatic exit after a year. People believe the politicians when they have given out very specific dates. We were supposed to leave on the 29th. This was supposed to be a fixed process. I don't think they were foolish to believe what the entire country was told about leaving.

Nobody want a no deal. The EU will most likely extend and extend until a deal is reached. Although they have stated that the deal already on the table is the only deal to be accepted, whoever wins the next election (if it happens) will want that changed and their own 'brexit' put forward.

Talks of close alignment and customs union on the tellybox this morning.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Nobody want a no deal.

Sadly a fair few Tory MP's do want that, and along with Farage and the other Brexiteer elite have managed to convince a fair few members of the general public that it won't be Brexit unless we do get a "no dea" scenario.

 

[Esker-pades]

This tweet from Jacob Rees-Mogg is interesting:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

If a long extension leaves us stuck in the EU we should be as difficult as possible. We could veto any increase in the budget, obstruct the putative EU army and block Mr Macron’s integrationist schemes.

To put it another way, he is threatening to exercise significant UK power over the EU, but stood on a platform during and after the referendum campaign which said "TAKE BACK CONTROL" because we had little influence over the EU.

I'd like to see the justification for this.

 

[404250]

Probably?? Losing the EHIC card will push up travel insurance for starters! What happens if my agency can't provide carers - two EU's have left since the new year, and they are forever complaining of not enough staff; if imported EU food has tariffs then the cost will increase = higher inflation. I'm really struggling to find one solitary benefit, and there would need to be several in order to replace all the stuff we lose. Even our sodding blue passport will be useless in Europe without the ETIAS form when that kicks in in 2021 (unless by some miracle we can negotiate our way out of it).

Ok. I think the vast majority of people will notice no difference in their day to day lives though.

 

[Howardh]

Ok. I think the vast majority of people will notice no difference in their day to day lives though.

The "vast majority" of people take holidays, work for firms exporting to the EU and I also understand some of them even have to buy food.

 

[Howardh]

This tweet from Jacob Rees-Mogg is interesting:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jacob_Rees_Mogg/status/1114086264024727554

To put it another way, he is threatening to exercise significant UK power over the EU, but stood on a platform during and after the referendum campaign which said "TAKE BACK CONTROL" because we had little influence over the EU.

I'd like to see the justification for this.

Depends which of his two faces we're looking at! Ye Gods, what an own-goal; we either have little influence in the EU or tons. It appears from honcho Brexiter we did, indeed, have a lot of influence. So yet more referendum lies. Unless Brexiters now think their beloved leader is telling porkies.

Which is it??

 

[404250]

The "vast majority" of people take holidays, work for firms exporting to the EU and I also understand some of them even have to buy food.

Don't agree with your 2nd point there. As for holidays and food I think the extra cost in a years time won't be enough for most people to notice. I'm just of the opinion more fuss is made over 2p on a can of Italian tomatoes than is justified.

 

[404250]

You're obviously extremely worried about it

 

[Esker-pades]

Don't agree with your 2nd point there. As for holidays and food I think the extra cost in a years time won't be enough for most people to notice. I'm just of the opinion more fuss is made over 2p on a can of Italian tomatoes than is justified.

Tariffs are applied in percentage terms. A tariff of 25% (which I believe is the tariff applied to tomatoes to/from the EU) is not much on one tin, sure, but adds up over the shop. Remember, tariffs will be applied to virtually everything in a no-deal scenario. Thus, it is the whole shop that goes up in price, not just the additional few pence on the tin of tomatoes.

The pound has already weakened significantly against the Euro. Before the referendum it was between 1.40-1.45 (IE: £1 gets €1.40-1.45). It's now at 1.17 today, which is the highest it has been for at least 2 years. That difference of up to 30 cents in the euro is significant for anybody exchanging money.

 

[404250]

Remember, tariffs will be applied to virtually everything in a no-deal scenario

But we won't leave without a deal.

 

[Esker-pades]

But we won't leave without a deal.

I wish I had as much confidence as you. Leaving without a deal is still possible.

The second point is that we don't know what a future trade deal with the EU will look like in the event of an actual deal.

 

[404250]

The pound has already weakened significantly against the Euro. Before the referendum it was between 1.40-1.45 (IE: £1 gets €1.40-1.45). It's now at 1.17 today, which is the highest it has been for at least 2 years. That difference of up to 30 cents in the euro is significant for anybody exchanging money.

Yes it's a pain a beer costs more when on holiday now. The pound is also much weaker against the US dollar. There's nothing to stop the rates changing though and we could be back to 1.40 euro to the pound in a few years. Nobody can forecast that.

 

[Esker-pades]

Yes it's a pain a beer costs more when on holiday now. The pound is also much weaker against the US dollar. There's nothing to stop the rates changing though and we could be back to 1.40 euro to the pound in a few years. Nobody can forecast that.

Not just a beer, everything .

We could be. But, Brexit has directly meant that anybody exchanging from pounds to euros has been hit in the wallet.

It may surprise you to know that some people even travel to the EU for non-holiday reasons and some don't even buy beer.

 

[bramling]

Surprisingly, a slight swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Newport West. Hard to know whether this has any significance, as firstly it was a by-election, and secondly a very low turnout.

 

[radamfi]

Surprisingly, a slight swing from Labour to the Conservatives in Newport West. Hard to know whether this has any significance, as firstly it was a by-election, and secondly a very low turnout.

It was a FPTP election in a safe seat. Therefore no point in voting.

 

[Esker-pades]

There is already a thread on this Newport West by-election....

 

[furnessvale]

Tariffs are applied in percentage terms. A tariff of 25% (which I believe is the tariff applied to tomatoes to/from the EU) is not much on one tin, sure, but adds up over the shop. Remember, tariffs will be applied to virtually everything in a no-deal scenario. Thus, it is the whole shop that goes up in price, not just the additional few pence on the tin of tomatoes.

The pound has already weakened significantly against the Euro. Before the referendum it was between 1.40-1.45 (IE: £1 gets €1.40-1.45). It's now at 1.17 today, which is the highest it has been for at least 2 years. That difference of up to 30 cents in the euro is significant for anybody exchanging money.

Tariffs are applied by the importing country not the exporter.

If the UK chooses not to put a tariff on imported tinned tomatoes, then the tariff will be zero. What will happen is that the UK will see tinned tomatoes from other than the EU as we will, under WTO rules, have zero tariff on those non EU countries also.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Tariffs are applied by the importing country not the exporter.

If the UK chooses not to put a tariff on imported tinned tomatoes, then the tariff will be zero. What will happen is that the UK will see tinned tomatoes from other than the EU as we will, under WTO rules, have zero tariff on those non EU countries also.

Personally, being strongly opposed to unnecessary food miles, I'd like to see a whacking tariff or even a complete ban (beyond trivial levels e.g. a slice of tomato on your sandwich) placed on import of food items that can be UK-produced. Tinned tomatoes are an excellent example.

 

[furnessvale]

Personally, being strongly opposed to unnecessary food miles, I'd like to see a whacking tariff or even a complete ban (beyond trivial levels e.g. a slice of tomato on your sandwich) placed on import of food items that can be UK-produced. Tinned tomatoes are an excellent example.

No problem, just as long as we don't get the statutory "It was Brexit wot done it" responses.

In fact, post Brexit it will be in the gift of the UK government to fulfill your wishes.

 

[edwin_m]

Very unlikely - there'll be an agreement. Why would the EU want to lose UK tourists and vice versa?

There are plenty of people in the UK willing to cut off their noses (and the noses of the rest of us) to spite their faces in all sorts of ways over Brexit. So why should the EHIC be an exception?

Nobody want a no deal. The EU will most likely extend and extend until a deal is reached. Although they have stated that the deal already on the table is the only deal to be accepted, whoever wins the next election (if it happens) will want that changed and their own 'brexit' put forward.

There are lots of indications that various key people in Europe are getting fed up with having to call repeated emergency summits to grant short extensions, and the risk is increasing that someone will say no. The "flextension" is basically saying "don't come and bother us again until you've agreed a clear plan" and Tusk is explicitly recognising that it's unlikely any plan will be agreed without a referendum. He's also factoring in the likelihood that if such a plan is agreed it will probably include the backstop, the DUP or the ERG or both will pull the plug on the May government or if they don't there will be a new right wing prime minister and multiple moderate Tories will leave the party. All those roads lead almost certainly to an election.

And May is now talking about asking for an extension only to June 30, something that's been rejected already.