Exit strategy predictions

[baz962]

In general, yes. However there are some specific issues like what happens if the crew need to go back to deal with a passenger alarm, person ill, defect which requires going back to check something etc. Also there’s potentially issue with staff having to travel around “pass” and messroom capacities.

There are mitigations to help address some of these issues, although in some cases they may mean a given situation will take longer than normal to resolve.

Or as happened to me twice this week , a drunk sleeping person on my train. Judging by the odour of one , definitely cannot have been hand washing/sanitising.

 

[C J Snarzell]

Most large social gatherings have been postponed anyway until next year - the Grand National, Glastonbury, Parklife, the London Marathon (postponed until October for now) are examples. Chris Witty has already hinted that social distancing may have to be enforced for a considerable time. This doesn't mean that you will not be able to have close contact with friends, family or work colleagues - what it will mean is that large gatherings will be discouraged for many months to come.

I know people who were supposed to have weddings this year. Although one of the weddings is only in September, the couple are anticipating that there will be restrictions on having so many people together in one venue for the reception, even in five months time. Therefore, they have postponed their nuptuals until the summer of 2021.

Major sporting fixtures are going to be a huge problem long term. The football industry has already lost millions in venue and most clubs are already functioning with huge debts anyway. Whether or not football games could resume with 'closed' matches and get their revenue by offering fans the opportunity to subscribe to TV packages like they have used in the boxing world. This may become a massive headache because of the legal issues with TV and broadcasting rights. I personally can't see stadiums like Anfield or Old Trafford being filled again with football spectators until the 2021/22 season.

As for working from home - this will be the norm I reckon for many people. In some industries, companies may actually save money by not having to rent office or other workplaces and there will be more benefits to home working such as saving money on travel costs and having that extra hour in bed or spending it with the family.

CJ

 

[RealTrains07]

Just seen the daily press briefing and I just wanted some imput from the forum over a question by ITV Robert Peston

Robert Peston on Twitter

“Attached is why I asked @DominicRaab about possible phased increase in railway services, and possible modifications of lockdown between 11 May and 18 May. Letter from @Manuel_TSSA to Network Rail”

twitter.com

Does the may timetable or increase in reduced timetable mean we are closer to exiting the lockdown?

I have been wondering whether the may timetable may be introduced late as part of the exit strategy?

 

[Chester1]

Major sporting fixtures are going to be a huge problem long term. The football industry has already lost millions in venue and most clubs are already functioning with huge debts anyway. Whether or not football games could resume with 'closed' matches and get their revenue by offering fans the opportunity to subscribe to TV packages like they have used in the boxing world. This may become a massive headache because of the legal issues with TV and broadcasting rights. I personally can't see stadiums like Anfield or Old Trafford being filled again with football spectators until the 2021/22 season.

Loss of match day revenue is not awful for Premier League clubs. TV and commerical revenue make up the vast majority of their revenue. In the lower leagues the loss of match day revenue can be compensated through ifollow* income and an increase in solidarity payments from the Premier League. The Premier League and Football League can afford to be run without fans in attendance at matches. The legal side of broadcasting additional Premier League matches in the UK is unlikely to be insurmountable, its in Sky and BT's interest to reach a deal.

*For the benefit of anyone who isn't aware, all football league matches not broadcast on TV are streamed on ifollow, which is run by the football league clubs. Matches at 3pm Saturday are only streamed for international fans but the blackout law could be temporarily lifted by Parliament. Its a flat rate of £10 per match, 1 device only.

 

[Enthusiast]

As interesting as this all is, there seems little realism or pragmatism evident. Except perhaps this:

If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.

And that will be the view of increasing numbers of people as time goes on. Initially the lockdown was a novelty. Now it is becoming a bind. There is no way that sixty-odd million people are going to remain locked down for any prolonged period and there’s no way the authorities will prevent them from breaking out. This will become increasingly evident as the summer progresses. Many people, especially in large towns and cities, do not have gardens. They will be going out and it won’t be solely with a “reasonable excuse.” There is also no way that owners of businesses – especially the smaller ones - will watch the fruits of the labours disappear up the Swanee. They will begin to resume work. Most of all, the government cannot continue to pay people’s wages indefinitely. A couple of months is about as much as the economy will stand, and that’s a stretch.

Yes, they can keep licensed premises and those subject to Local Authority control closed. They can forbid gatherings for sporting and social events. But they won’t stop people going out in the summer. Talk of the current circumstances becoming the “new norm” is fanciful. This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

Talk of a vaccine being developed in short order are hopelessly optimistic. Ditto a cure. To suggest that people will remain locked down until one or the other is developed is ludicrous. It ain’t gonna happen and the government needs to develop a strategy to end this farcical situation. If it’s not ended with agreement it will end without. At present most people are compliant. But that’s not going to last and I believe that by about the end of May their patience will be exhausted. People who want to remain locked down will be perfectly free to do so. Those who don’t won’t.

I don't know the answer, I only know the question. And the question is, what does the government do when people become tired of being locked down? Because they will as sure as eggs is eggs. Best the question is addressed now rather than in a month's time because to simply assume that everybody will continue as they are now with no "end game" forthcoming is simply naive.

 

[bramling]

As interesting as this all is, there seems little realism or pragmatism evident. Except perhaps this:

And that will be the view of increasing numbers of people as time goes on. Initially the lockdown was a novelty. Now it is becoming a bind. There is no way that sixty-odd million people are going to remain locked down for any prolonged period and there’s no way the authorities will prevent them from breaking out. This will become increasingly evident as the summer progresses. Many people, especially in large towns and cities, do not have gardens. They will be going out and it won’t be solely with a “reasonable excuse.” There is also no way that owners of businesses – especially the smaller ones - will watch the fruits of the labours disappear up the Swanee. They will begin to resume work. Most of all, the government cannot continue to pay people’s wages indefinitely. A couple of months is about as much as the economy will stand, and that’s a stretch.

Yes, they can keep licensed premises and those subject to Local Authority control closed. They can forbid gatherings for sporting and social events. But they won’t stop people going out in the summer. Talk of the current circumstances becoming the “new norm” is fanciful. This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

Talk of a vaccine being developed in short order are hopelessly optimistic. Ditto a cure. To suggest that people will remain locked down until one or the other is developed is ludicrous. It ain’t gonna happen and the government needs to develop a strategy to end this farcical situation. If it’s not ended with agreement it will end without. At present most people are compliant. But that’s not going to last and I believe that by about the end of May their patience will be exhausted. People who want to remain locked down will be perfectly free to do so. Those who don’t won’t.

I don't know the answer, I only know the question. And the question is, what does the government do when people become tired of being locked down? Because they will as sure as eggs is eggs. Best the question is addressed now rather than in a month's time because to simply assume that everybody will continue as they are now with no "end game" forthcoming is simply naive.

I don't think the lockdown in its current form can or will continue indefinitely, indeed I would expect at least there to be some form of olive branch / sweetener during the next review. The lockdown has supported social distancing by buying time for measures to be implemented, and helping to enforce some of the measures already in place. However it's clear that various forms of social distancing *are* going to be the new norm for some time. I don't think we can get away from that at the moment. The question is to what extent.

There is also possibly going to *have* to be some sweetener for key workers, as simply from a realism point of view many are feeling rather drained by all this having been on the go for some time in stress-inducing circumstances. Clapping out of windows or putting vinyls on trains is very nice, but doesn't address issues like fatigue.

 

[yorksrob]

This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

There does seem to be a conflict in the advice provided to Governments. I don't see how it is somehow "ineffective" to stop international travel from a country with an outbreak, yet it's vital to stop someone going to see their cousin in the next village. Most of the world seems to have decided for themselves anyway.

 

[JonathanH]

This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

Is there any evidence that the people arriving on these planes are visitors and businessmen rather than stranded tourists trying to get home?

We need to keep some flights in the air for freight purposes.

The lockdown has supported social distancing buy buying time for measures to be implemented, and helping to enforce some of the measures already in place.

One of those is of course the time to build the Nightingalr Hospitals which will allow more people to be treated for the unwelcome effects of Covid-19. That will permit a bit of loosening of the restrictions at the cost of deaths from the disease being sustained at a higher level.

 

[chris11256]

One of those is of course the time to build the Nightingalr Hospitals which will allow more people to be treated for the unwelcome effects of Covid-19. That will permit a bit of loosening of the restrictions at the cost of deaths from the disease being sustained at a higher level.

The only slightly problem at this stage with the Nightingale Hospitals is that the hospital making the patient referral also needs to provide full staffing for that patient. So the more patients individual hospitals refer, the more staff they lose.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The only slightly problem at this stage with the Nightingale Hospitals is that the hospital making the patient referral also needs to provide full staffing for that patient. So the more patients individual hospitals refer, the more staff they lose.

For now. A mass training and recruitment process might need to be kicked off.

 

[JonathanH]

For now. A mass training and recruitment process might need to be kicked off.

Indeed, moves to try and recruit dental nurses for hospital work, probably aircraft stewards and other people in customer facing positions who can't otherwise work at the moment.

 

[MDB1images]

I don't know but the national stats (reported on the press conference) don't bear it out.

To be honest I've noticed a slight increase in traffic going to/from work.
Around the time the police was using drones in Derbyshire I noticed a massive drop(virtually nothing on the road), slowly it's crept up.
Don't get me wrong it's nowhere near the levels of a normal day but it's gone from roughly 1 or 2 cars waiting at traffic lights to 4 or 5.
Suspect it's just people going for a drive (possibly after having been shopping or dare I say going to a store further away to pass the time).

To put it into context, when running parallel with the Motorway on the train it was still largely logistics lorries and not much else and the trains are totally empty.

 

[kermit]

As interesting as this all is, there seems little realism or pragmatism evident. Except perhaps this:

And that will be the view of increasing numbers of people as time goes on. Initially the lockdown was a novelty. Now it is becoming a bind. There is no way that sixty-odd million people are going to remain locked down for any prolonged period and there’s no way the authorities will prevent them from breaking out. This will become increasingly evident as the summer progresses. Many people, especially in large towns and cities, do not have gardens. They will be going out and it won’t be solely with a “reasonable excuse.” There is also no way that owners of businesses – especially the smaller ones - will watch the fruits of the labours disappear up the Swanee. They will begin to resume work. Most of all, the government cannot continue to pay people’s wages indefinitely. A couple of months is about as much as the economy will stand, and that’s a stretch.

Yes, they can keep licensed premises and those subject to Local Authority control closed. They can forbid gatherings for sporting and social events. But they won’t stop people going out in the summer. Talk of the current circumstances becoming the “new norm” is fanciful. This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

Talk of a vaccine being developed in short order are hopelessly optimistic. Ditto a cure. To suggest that people will remain locked down until one or the other is developed is ludicrous. It ain’t gonna happen and the government needs to develop a strategy to end this farcical situation. If it’s not ended with agreement it will end without. At present most people are compliant. But that’s not going to last and I believe that by about the end of May their patience will be exhausted. People who want to remain locked down will be perfectly free to do so. Those who don’t won’t.

I don't know the answer, I only know the question. And the question is, what does the government do when people become tired of being locked down? Because they will as sure as eggs is eggs. Best the question is addressed now rather than in a month's time because to simply assume that everybody will continue as they are now with no "end game" forthcoming is simply naive.

Your post is perceptive, at least in crystallising some of the profound ethical questions we are going to have to face, and soon. I am closely related to an NHS nurse. If the thrust of your post is that people will not accept living as we are at present, because they are fed up and broke, I understand that. But I am not keen on seeing NHS staff die, treating people, and their infectees, simply because those people would not wait, at least for a democratically mandated decision on continuing restrictions. Like you, I am perhaps pessimistic about the airy promises of solutions. But I do feel that we have to allow as much time as we can, perhaps hoping for a miracle, but also getting to a point where we really have run out of options. I don't know the answers either, but by now I am certainly suspicious of anyone who says they do.

 

[tj1997]

I predict the following; based on what other countries have done/may do subject to retaining increased NHS Bed capacity and ensuring test capacity to test everyone with symptoms.
Stage 1 (two weeks of falling new cases);
Groups of no more than 10 people in public.
Shielding & Vunerable groups stay in.
Continue to work at home where possible
Phased return for other workplaces (employee's who wish to return to work)
Schools/daycare stay closed
Large venues; cafes/restuarants/pubs/bars/clubs/cinemas/gyms etc stay closed
Continued ban on non-essential travel.
Outdoor gyms/playgrounds/golf courses/tennis courts can reopen
Places of worship for individual worship & weddings & funerals with less than 10 people in attendence.
Some non-essential retail businesses reopen; i.e. those who can trade unrestricted on Sundays (under 3000 sq ft)
Hairdressers/babers/beaty salons/tattooists/body piercers can reopen.
Driving tests/driving lessons resume.
Garden Centres can reopen
Resume outpatient appointments (i.e. dental/optical appointments)
Public Transport operating Saturday Timetable. Face Masks compulsory for staff & passengers

Stage 2 (Once new cases are under 500 per day);
Groups of no more than 50 people in public.
Shielding groups stay in. Vunerable groups may resume limited interaction (i.e avoid crowded areas/social bubble).
Continue to work from home where possible.
Schools/daycare reopen
Courts resume new jury trials
Larger non-essential stores reopen (with distancing/restricted opening times)
Small cafes/restaurants (under 50 covers) reopen
Resume elective inpatient surgery (subject to local capacity)
Allow televised professional sports events to resume behind closed doors.
Very limited non-essential travel (i.e. business or family reasons; no visiting second homes)
Public Transport operating enhanced Saturday Timetable. Face Masks compulsory for staff & passengers

Stage 3 (Once new cases are under 100 per day)-New Normal
Groups of no more than 500 people in public
Shielding groups may resume very limited interaction (i.e avoid crowded areas/social bubble)
Unrestricted workplace staffing (vunerable/shielding employees to stay home)
Larger venues i.e restaurants/bars/gyms/cinemas/pubs/places of worship can reopen subject to capacity/distancing restrictions/intense cleaning regimes/restricted open hours/days. Maybe reduce distancing to 1m.
Visits to hospitals/care homes can resume (to locations/wards not treating COVID cases)
Allow non-essential travel within UK
Public transport operating full timetable where possible subject to staffing. Face Masks encouraged for staff & passengers.

 

[chris11256]

I predict the following; based on what other countries have done/may do subject to retaining increased NHS Bed capacity and ensuring test capacity to test everyone with symptoms.
Stage 1 (two weeks of falling new cases);
Groups of no more than 10 people in public.
Shielding & Vunerable groups stay in.
Continue to work at home where possible
Phased return for other workplaces (employee's who wish to return to work)
Schools/daycare stay closed
Large venues; cafes/restuarants/pubs/bars/clubs/cinemas/gyms etc stay closed
Continued ban on non-essential travel.
Outdoor gyms/playgrounds/golf courses/tennis courts can reopen
Places of worship for individual worship & weddings & funerals with less than 10 people in attendence.
Some non-essential retail businesses reopen; i.e. those who can trade unrestricted on Sundays (under 3000 sq ft)
Hairdressers/babers/beaty salons/tattooists/body piercers can reopen.
Driving tests/driving lessons resume.
Garden Centres can reopen
Resume outpatient appointments (i.e. dental/optical appointments)
Public Transport operating Saturday Timetable. Face Masks compulsory for staff & passengers

Stage 2 (Once new cases are under 500 per day);
Groups of no more than 50 people in public.
Shielding groups stay in. Vunerable groups may resume limited interaction (i.e avoid crowded areas/social bubble).
Continue to work from home where possible.
Schools/daycare reopen
Courts resume new jury trials
Larger non-essential stores reopen (with distancing/restricted opening times)
Small cafes/restaurants (under 50 covers) reopen
Resume elective inpatient surgery (subject to local capacity)
Allow televised professional sports events to resume behind closed doors.
Very limited non-essential travel (i.e. business or family reasons; no visiting second homes)
Public Transport operating enhanced Saturday Timetable. Face Masks compulsory for staff & passengers

Stage 3 (Once new cases are under 100 per day)-New Normal
Groups of no more than 500 people in public
Shielding groups may resume very limited interaction (i.e avoid crowded areas/social bubble)
Unrestricted workplace staffing (vunerable/shielding employees to stay home)
Larger venues i.e restaurants/bars/gyms/cinemas/pubs/places of worship can reopen subject to capacity/distancing restrictions/intense cleaning regimes/restricted open hours/days. Maybe reduce distancing to 1m.
Visits to hospitals/care homes can resume (to locations/wards not treating COVID cases)
Allow non-essential travel within UK
Public transport operating full timetable where possible subject to staffing. Face Masks encouraged for staff & passengers.

Only thing I'd change would be a phased reopening of schools from Stage 1. So initially schools only reopen for Year 10 & year 12 pupils(who have critical exams next year and where it'll be much easier to keep distance) and then progress from there.

 

[trebor79]

There does seem to be a conflict in the advice provided to Governments. I don't see how it is somehow "ineffective" to stop international travel from a country with an outbreak, yet it's vital to stop someone going to see their cousin in the next village. Most of the world seems to have decided for themselves anyway.

That is exactly what I thought was nonsensical back in February and early March. Apparently there was no point in shutting down borders because "viruses don't respect borders".
Well, no they don't if infected people are allowed to move across those borders.

 

[joncombe]

As interesting as this all is, there seems little realism or pragmatism evident. Except perhaps this:

And that will be the view of increasing numbers of people as time goes on. Initially the lockdown was a novelty. Now it is becoming a bind. There is no way that sixty-odd million people are going to remain locked down for any prolonged period and there’s no way the authorities will prevent them from breaking out. This will become increasingly evident as the summer progresses. Many people, especially in large towns and cities, do not have gardens. They will be going out and it won’t be solely with a “reasonable excuse.” There is also no way that owners of businesses – especially the smaller ones - will watch the fruits of the labours disappear up the Swanee. They will begin to resume work. Most of all, the government cannot continue to pay people’s wages indefinitely. A couple of months is about as much as the economy will stand, and that’s a stretch.

Yes, they can keep licensed premises and those subject to Local Authority control closed. They can forbid gatherings for sporting and social events. But they won’t stop people going out in the summer. Talk of the current circumstances becoming the “new norm” is fanciful. This is especially so when there are reports of 60 or more aircraft a day landing at Heathrow, many of them containing visitors and businessmen. I can’t visit my neighbour a few doors along the road but people from Iran, Iraq and elsewhere continue to arrive, with no checks, to “visit family.”

Talk of a vaccine being developed in short order are hopelessly optimistic. Ditto a cure. To suggest that people will remain locked down until one or the other is developed is ludicrous. It ain’t gonna happen and the government needs to develop a strategy to end this farcical situation. If it’s not ended with agreement it will end without. At present most people are compliant. But that’s not going to last and I believe that by about the end of May their patience will be exhausted. People who want to remain locked down will be perfectly free to do so. Those who don’t won’t.

I don't know the answer, I only know the question. And the question is, what does the government do when people become tired of being locked down? Because they will as sure as eggs is eggs. Best the question is addressed now rather than in a month's time because to simply assume that everybody will continue as they are now with no "end game" forthcoming is simply naive.

I think this is a great post and hits the nail on the head.

The current restrictions cannot continue for long.

I don't even think "Social Distancing" can continue for long either, despite what some are saying. Most pavements are not 2 metres wide. Most footpaths are not 2 metres wide. Population density in many areas is too high to make it practical to be able to keep 2 metres away from everyone. Maybe if a road has a pavement on both sides you could make each side one-way but that means if someone stops or is walking slowly, everyone has to. It's impractical to tell people to keep 2 metres away from anyone they don't live with for years or more.

Public transport for example doesn't really work with everyone having to keep 2 metres apart. Capacity would be massively reduced. It's not going to be economical to operate a single-decker bus with say, a maximum of 15 passengers, which is probably the maximum you could achieve with 2 metre separation and perhaps 25 on a double decker (which can't be used on many routes, e.g. those with low bridges). So that would mean many people would either be told they cannot travel or they've have to reserve month in advance and once the maximum capacity to maintain distancing is achieved no more tickets are sold. Again that would make it un-economical without massively hiking the fares. Not everyone lives walking distance to a shop either so many have to use public transport to get to shops, hospitals and so on. It would make walk-up travel impossible in many cases.

Many jobs are also impossible without close contact with other people.

The same applies for so many other things, like cinemas, theatres, concerts, sporting events, restaurants, pubs etc. Most couldn't operator economically at perhaps a maximum of 30% the capacity they are currently operating at and make money.

Even if it was decided that closer contact would be permitted if face masks were mandatory (for example on public transport), it would obviously be impossible in a restaurant or pub since it would make it impossible to eat or drink with a mask on! If undertaking a long train journey (say 3 or more hours) wearing a mask would become very uncomfortable and unpleasant. It would also make it impossible to eat or drink and on a train journey several hours long people are going to want to (and in some cases need to) do that. Who would want to undertake a long train journey with a mask on the whole time, not able to eat or drink?

There are also serious social implications. If you are not already in a relationship and living with someone it would be impossible to start a relationship (or at least a physical one) by keeping 2 metres apart from anyone you don't already live with. That would I'm sure have human rights implications if it was continued for long. Similarly applying much more stringent restrictions on over 70s for examples would also likely fall foul of discrimination laws at some point. Recommendations probably wouldn't, but making it mandatory would.

 

[yorkie]

Only thing I'd change would be a phased reopening of schools ....

I was thinking that, but I will post my reply in the dedicated thread: COVID-19: School Closures

I think this is a great post and hits the nail on the head.

The current restrictions cannot continue for long.......

Absolutely. If we do face some very difficult decisions, then difficult decisions may have to be made, but the "we must lock down indefinitely" brigade are going to have to compromise, the future of young people cannot be completely ignored.

 

[chris11256]

I was thinking that, but I will post my reply in the dedicated thread: COVID-19: School Closures

Sorry....

 

[yorksrob]

That is exactly what I thought was nonsensical back in February and early March. Apparently there was no point in shutting down borders because "viruses don't respect borders".
Well, no they don't if infected people are allowed to move across those borders.

I suspect that particular piece of advice will be reviewed, particularly given that there's no chance of any country following it in the future.

 

[joncombe]

I predict the following; based on what other countries have done/may do subject to retaining increased NHS Bed capacity and ensuring test capacity to test everyone with symptoms.
Stage 1 (two weeks of falling new cases);
Groups of no more than 10 people in public.
Shielding & Vunerable groups stay in.
Continue to work at home where possible
Phased return for other workplaces (employee's who wish to return to work)
Schools/daycare stay closed
Large venues; cafes/restuarants/pubs/bars/clubs/cinemas/gyms etc stay closed
Continued ban on non-essential travel.
Outdoor gyms/playgrounds/golf courses/tennis courts can reopen
Places of worship for individual worship & weddings & funerals with less than 10 people in attendence.
Some non-essential retail businesses reopen; i.e. those who can trade unrestricted on Sundays (under 3000 sq ft)
Hairdressers/babers/beaty salons/tattooists/body piercers can reopen.
Driving tests/driving lessons resume.
Garden Centres can reopen
Resume outpatient appointments (i.e. dental/optical appointments)
Public Transport operating Saturday Timetable. Face Masks compulsory for staff & passengers

I can't see how much of that is possible whilst you say "continued ban on non essential travel".

Is it essential to play golf/tennis? Go to non essential businesses? Go to a garden centre?

Sorry can't see how you can open such businesses whilst telling people they are not allowed to get to them.

 

[trebor79]

I think this is a great post and hits the nail on the head.

The current restrictions cannot continue for long.

I don't even think "Social Distancing" can continue for long either, despite what some are saying. Most pavements are not 2 metres wide. Most footpaths are not 2 metres wide. Population density in many areas is too high to make it practical to be able to keep 2 metres away from everyone. Maybe if a road has a pavement on both sides you could make each side one-way but that means if someone stops or is walking slowly, everyone has to. It's impractical to tell people to keep 2 metres away from anyone they don't live with for years or more.

There's a lot of confusion and misunderstanding about this. The risk of transmission is there if you are within 2m (actually the WHO says 1m), face to face with am infected person for a period of 15 minutes or longer. There is no practical risk of catching coronavirus from walking past someone in the street.
I see people panicking and getting annoyed when someone wanders into their bubble. The government need to explain this better, which may help people to feel less anxious and actually do the things that matter.

 

[joncombe]

There's a lot of confusion and misunderstanding about this. The risk of transmission is there if you are within 2m (actually the WHO says 1m), face to face with am infected person for a period of 15 minutes or longer. There is no practical risk of catching coronavirus from walking past someone in the street.
I see people panicking and getting annoyed when someone wanders into their bubble. The government need to explain this better, which may help people to feel less anxious and actually do the things that matter.

Is there? Why then would supermarkets be keeping people 2 metres apart? Most people are not going to be standing next to the same person for 15 minutes in a shop either. So why is it necessary?

 

[tj1997]

I can't see how much of that is possible whilst you say "continued ban on non essential travel".

Is it essential to play golf/tennis? Go to non essential businesses? Go to a garden centre?

Sorry can't see how you can open such businesses whilst telling people they are not allowed to get to them.

By non-essential travel I mean no travelling long distances to stay in holiday homes, to take selfies at beauty spots or for a walk along the beach. For example fine to go a play round of golf at your local course, but not okay to drive 60 miles to a prestige course further away. Was taking inspiration from Austria who are allowing solitary sports like archery, golf, tennis to resume but not team sports with contact.

 

[Enthusiast]

Is there any evidence that the people arriving on these planes are visitors and businessmen rather than stranded tourists trying to get home?

We need to keep some flights in the air for freight purposes.

No I'm not referring to cargo flights but passengers. I've no first hand evidence (how would I have - I can't go to the airport! ). Only reports. Here's one:

People still arriving at Heathrow for holidays in Britain despite lockdown

Disbelief has been expressed by many critics that Britain's borders haven't been closed

www.mylondon.news

There are plenty of others. I know it's the Press but I don't see why they should lie on such an issue. These, together with the lack of an end-date, are among the matters which will eventually bring this lockdown to an untimely end. People will not sit in their tenth floor flat with three kids, unable to visit their friends and relatives or go for a trip to the country or the coast whilst they know that people are flying in from all over the world to make the sort of trips that they cannot. "I can't visit people, why can they?" will be their very valid question. At the very least the government should put a stop to that forthwith. It will give them a much stronger case for retaining such restrictions but I still don't think they will succeed in seeing them continued much into the summer.

But I am not keen on seeing NHS staff die,

Needless to say, neither am I.

 

[MarkyT]

By non-essential travel I mean no travelling long distances to stay in holiday homes, to take selfies at beauty spots or for a walk along the beach. For example fine to go a play round of golf at your local course, but not okay to drive 60 miles to a prestige course further away. Was taking inspiration from Austria who are allowing solitary sports like archery, golf, tennis to resume but not team sports with contact.

And Austria have also mandated public mask-wearing. I'm not sure of precise details, but I doubt it would be necessary or enforceable to wear while out alone on the course, but presumably, they would be required at the '19th hole' if or when such establishments are reopened...bring your own drinking straw.

 

[tj1997]

And Austria have also mandated public mask-wearing. I'm not sure of precise details, but I doubt it would be necessary or enforceable to wear while out alone on the course, but presumably, they would be required at the '19th hole' if or when such establishments are reopened...bring your own drinking straw.

Indeed they have, would like to know how people are going to drink their drink or eat their dinner in the bars and restaurants of Austria if they reopen on May 15th as the government there has indicated.

 

[MarkyT]

Indeed they have, would like to know how people are going to drink their drink or eat their dinner in the bars and restaurants of Austria if they reopen on May 15th as the government there has indicated.

In Hong Kong, the protocol is that an incoming customer is handed an envelope by the establishment in which to place their mask while eating who is then expected to put it back on immediately afterward and discard the envelope. Surfaces are wiped down after each customer and frequently between. I assume they are spacing individuals/groups out as well. Bars more difficult as you probably don't want people repeatedly removing/replacing masks for each sup...

 

[tj1997]

In Hong Kong, the protocol is that an incoming customer is handed an envelope by the establishment in which to place their mask while eating who is then expected to put it back on immediately afterward and discard the envelope. Surfaces are wiped down after each customer and frequently between. I assume they are spacing individuals/groups out as well. Bars more difficult as you probably don't want people repeatedly removing/replacing masks for each sup...

For what I've read about the plans in Austria, they appear to suggest waiting staff must wear masks, but don't suggest what customers would be expected to do. Surely if only the staff wear them, there will be little effect, as the unmasked customers would outnumber them.

 

[Carlisle]

But my point was that it's not a "project", it's about an hour or two's job for a couple of staff.

I was thinking more of a project amongst the politicians, scientists & industry leaders on some sort of agreed consensus on how to get perhaps even a limited number of our pubs & restaurants re opened soon.