First win Intercity West Coast franchise

[sprinterguy]

I would have bi-moded a few of the 221s exclusively for Chester/Holyhead and replaced the rest with 6 car Baby Pendos, just to confuse trainspotters a little more! Saying that, isn't there the problem that 5 car Voyagers won't take another carriage but 4 car ones will? Or is it something else that I've heard..

One transformer is insufficient to meet the power consumption requirements of the 5-car Voyagers. Or something like that, I forget the specifics. At any rate, the 5-car sets would require two pantograph cars to be inserted into the formation.

 

[ainsworth74]

At any rate, the 5-car sets would require two pantograph cars to be inserted into the formation.

And at that point you start to de-grade the off wires performance by adding two un-powered vehicles into the formation.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I've just looked up the Anytime Return for London-Manchester. £296!!!! How can they justify such ridiculously overpriced fares??? And who the hell pays these sort of rip-off prices for such a journey??! They must have money to burn!!

I have a lawyer relative who does this journey (MAN-EUS) 1-3 times a week (First Class - that's £423 return).
Walk-on, always at little notice. He wants/has to work en route.
His employer does not want him driving an unreliable 4 hours to a key meeeting.
The alternative is flying and it will take longer and cost more.
There is a market at those fares.
Ask any large firm of bankers, lawyers, business consultants, finance, media, energy firms etc for whom time is money.
They might drive everywhere else but not to London.

 

[jon0844]

The only time I've driven into London (as in central London) in the last few years was to get to my old office to collect my stuff - on a Sunday. There wasn't much traffic, but parking was still a nightmare.

A car is often more convenient (say that 2am trip to Tesco to get something) but at other times, it's not really an option because of the inconvenience. And city centre to city centre by car is just asking for trouble.

As said above, there are many people totally unaffected by the recession and who are paid an hourly rate that doesn't permit them to waste time in a car doing nothing productive.

Likewise, there are many businesses which won't allow people to travel first class, so that's where you can perhaps offer an intermediate class, or make standard cheaper at off-peak times.

It might not always be possible, but when I'm invited into London for a meeting or interview, I often try and make sure it's after 11am so I can travel off-peak.

 

[oversteer]

When your £423 first class ticket gives you, say, four hours of billable work at presumably hundreds of pounds an hour, it's rather easy to justify in business terms

 

[snail]

Euston-Manchester Piccadilly by road = 199 miles according to AA Route Planner.

It'll take you (according to them) 3hr 53 mins. In any decent diesel engined car you'll do it in 3hrs and it'll cost you around £27 in fuel.

That's an average speed of 66 mph. Good luck reaching that speed on the non-Motorway sections at either end (about 6mi. each) or between J14-J19 on the M6 at peak times.

Give me 2h15 every time, even if it does cost more mile for mile.

 

[tbtc]

So compare it mile for mile with other forms of transport.

Euston-Manchester Piccadilly by road = 199 miles according to AA Route Planner.

It'll take you (according to them) 3hr 53 mins. In any decent diesel engined car you'll do it in 3hrs and it'll cost you around £27 in fuel. Add another tenner in running costs and you're looking at £40 tops.

So train vs car = car wins by £108.

If the Government really wanted us out of our cars they'd have offered a genuine alternative.

As it is, the rail network is used only by those who don't have a choice.

Exploitation of the masses, if you please.

Yes, if your car costs conveniently don't include the cost of the car, tax on the car, the toll cost, parking charges...

 

[jon0844]

I really wish people would stop comparing rail with car anyway. If you have a car, there are times you'll prefer or need to drive. Cost doesn't come into it then.

And there are times only a fool would drive.

I choose the method of transport for every occasion. Rail often wins because it doesn't scare me and I know (mostly) how to seek out the best routes and prices.

The bigger issue is perhaps the various barriers that stop some people ever using the train in the first place and therefore aren't considering it as an option. High prices might do that, or the perception that trains are old, slow and dirty.

Virgin probably did help make rail sexy on the WCML and perhaps people fear it will go back to being what they perceive as it being like before. To me, perhaps every TOC should team up (ie using ATOC) to advertise rail in general so people might take the time to see if rail might suit them better. And don't just sell on price alone.

 

[eastdyke]

..... To me, perhaps every TOC should team up (ie using ATOC) to advertise rail in general so people might take the time to see if rail might suit them better. And don't just sell on price alone.

I agree, but it doesn't have to all be in general.

As an example the Beccles loop should result in services on the East Suffolk line becoming 1 tph Lowestoft-Ipswich from December.
This is an increase from 1 tp2h over the Lowestoft-Saxmundham section.

The TOC has a great opportunity to market rail to the local community. I intend checking them out.

 

[jon0844]

We kept the standard BR logo to show a railway, but while TOCs wish to compete with each other - they all need to unite together to promote rail. Of course, rail does rather better than the perception of buses (or coach travel) but there are still people who, if they've never really used the train much, pretty much rule it out before even looking at the options and prices.

 

[The Ham]

So compare it mile for mile with other forms of transport.

Euston-Manchester Piccadilly by road = 199 miles according to AA Route Planner.

It'll take you (according to them) 3hr 53 mins. In any decent diesel engined car you'll do it in 3hrs and it'll cost you around £27 in fuel. Add another tenner in running costs and you're looking at £40 tops.

So train vs car = car wins by £108.

If the Government really wanted us out of our cars they'd have offered a genuine alternative.

As it is, the rail network is used only by those who don't have a choice.

Exploitation of the masses, if you please.

At 45p per mile (which is claimable as a business expense according to HMRC assuming fuel, maintenance, tac, insurance, etc.) 199 miles is £89.55 which results in a £60 difference between the car and train. However given most companies will have a charge out rate for their staff (not just what their staff get paid but includes things like money to cover overheads) which would mean that it was cheaper for the company to send their staff by train if the journey time savings is less than an hour each way - even for quite lowly staff.

The other thing that people often forget when calculating travel costs is how much it costs you to buy a car in the first place. Even if you are paying £91/month (assuming the value your car devalues by and you interest charges come to £3,300 over three years) that would mean that your car costs you £3/day to buy. Add to that maintenance (£150), tax (£100), insurance (£300) and you could easily be looking at £4.5/day to run a car before you drive it anywhere. Now that cost isn't a lot if you drive a lot of miles a year but if you are only doing 30 miles a day (11,000 miles per year) that is the same as what you pay in petrol costs over the year.

 

[Wath Yard]

The cost of purchasing, taxing and insuring a car is irrelevant to a person's decision whether an individual journey will be taken by car or train. The person will already have a car and will not specifically buy it to do a return journey from Manchester - London.

I'm not sure why people are trying to justify the peak fares on the WCML. Successive Transport Secretaries haven't even tried to justify it; "eye watering" being one expression used.

 

[AndrewP]

The train vs car debate is an interesting one. I am in the position where I can choose how to travel.

For me getting to London by car is about the same as an advance first return / open single by the time parking, congestion charges and other factors are added in based on 45p per mile - enough to cover the cost of my Jag and tax compliant.

The big issue is that driving is dead time and you can neither work or relax so you lose either work from the journey time or productivity from feeling bad after a long drive. The other thing is that trains are broadly reliable and roads are a lottery.

Flying can also make sense depending where you are going - heathrow area is always bad to get to by road or rail.

 

[Metrailway]

Yes, if your car costs conveniently don't include the cost of the car, tax on the car, the toll cost, parking charges...

Well if you use the train for a journey and own a car, you will still be paying for the depreciation of a car and vehicle excise duty etc.

Since ~ 75% of households in the UK own at least one car, we can safely assume that the majority of public transport users belong to a household with at least a car. Even if someone switches from heavily using a car to heavily using a bus/train, it is very likely that they will keep a car (and thus pay for the car's costs) for journeys which cannot be made by public transport.

So a large % of any new regular users of public transports will still pay many of the costs you mention.

 

[The Ham]

Since ~ 75% of households in the UK own at least one car, we can safely assume that the majority of public transport users belong to a household with at least a car. Even if someone switches from heavily using a car to heavily using a bus/train, it is very likely that they will keep a car (and thus pay for the car's costs) for journeys which cannot be made by public transport.

BUT 70% of households have access to no car or only one car and with the average household occupancy being 2.4 people there are a lot of household/people who if one member of their household is already using the household car (if they have one) who would need to use public transport to get around.

It is likely that a lot of households heavily rely on public transport/walking/cycling and their one car as it is much cheaper than owning two cars.

 

[krus_aragon]

Were the existing covers just for aesthetic purposes ?

Some time ago, Charlie Hulme (of nwrail.org.uk) posed the question of whether pendolinos, when the coupler covers at both ends are removed in preparation for the Saturday drag along the North Wales coast, actually have the regulation area of yellow paint showing on the cab end.

 

[umontu]

At Uni I can't have my car due to limited parking spaces.
So I still own a car, but I'd rather take the train any day.
At least when on the train you can use the time to study, this is why I think the railways are becoming more popular for students as they can use their time better.

The other irritant about the roads is how people ignore the rules of the road so much and act like idiots. Using their phones, breaking the speed limit, driving excessively too slow, speeding up when someone goes to overtake them, taking out their anger on other motorists. It's just unhealthy.

Now I'm not saying that none of this happens on the railways. (I've seen at least two drivers on their phones texting, not exclusively to NR either)

 

[tbtc]

Virgin probably did help make rail sexy on the WCML and perhaps people fear it will go back to being what they perceive as it being like before

Maybe this is a subject for a whole separate thread, but did Virgin really increase passenger numbers (per train) significantly more than other TOCs did over a similar timescale?

They have the advantage of having a much longer time period to compared heir figures over (compared to say GNER, who only ran for a few years) - as far as I can see it every TOC managed to increase passenger numbers, even those only running for a shorter period.

The idea that growth on London - Manchester is down to Virgin seems odd when you consider how London - Leeds has grown in demand over a similar timescale.

But, of course, we are all meant to buy into the "Virgin saved the WCML" argument...

 

[jon0844]

I don't know if Virgin really increased passenger numbers (or if they did, if they wouldn't have gone up like they did elsewhere anyway).

But, they made rail travel look sexy to some degree. Of course, with the high ticket prices, people might have seen Virgin as a premium brand and rarely used it..

I agree it could be worth another thread.

 

[HH]

Back to this one, I hear that DfT have finally put in their paperwork on the JR. Now we just have to wait for the Judge to rule whether there is a case to answer.

Whatever they rule it's difficult to see how First can start the new Franchise on time unless DfT/DOR are working hand in glove with them so that either is ready to take over from Virgin if the ruling goes for DfT.

If the judge says there is a case, then it will have to go to DOR, regardless of what the final ruling is.

How will this impact on other Franchises? Is the DfT proving even more incompetent on this bidding round than it has in the past? Will heads roll?

It's better than 'Yes Minister'.

 

[WatcherZero]

I don't know if Virgin really increased passenger numbers (or if they did, if they wouldn't have gone up like they did elsewhere anyway).

But, they made rail travel look sexy to some degree. Of course, with the high ticket prices, people might have seen Virgin as a premium brand and rarely used it..

I agree it could be worth another thread.

Tripled passengers on the West Coast from 11m to 30m at the same time they halved on the East Coast from 20m to 10m(?), course you could argue there was some people switching but any switching would be down to their service being seen as superior wouldnt it.

 

[ainsworth74]

Out of curiosity where are you getting your figures from?

 

[tbtc]

Tripled passengers on the West Coast from 11m to 30m at the same time they halved on the East Coast from 20m to 10m(?), course you could argue there was some people switching but any switching would be down to their service being seen as superior wouldnt it.

Passenger numbers have halved on the ECML (during the period Virgin were running the WCML)?

 

[transmanche]

Tripled passengers on the West Coast from 11m to 30m at the same time they halved on the East Coast from 20m to 10m(?), course you could argue there was some people switching but any switching would be down to their service being seen as superior wouldnt it.

SRA figures for 2003/2004 (million passenger journeys)
GNER: 15.8
Virgin West Coast: 14.9

ORR figures for 2010/2011 (million passenger journeys)
East Coast: 18.5
Virgin West Coast: 28.9

I haven't found any official stats older than 2003/2004.

 

[WatcherZero]

East Coast line 1997, 18m

 

[jon0844]

Did either route expand services/capacity considerably during that time? If Virgin ran more trains as part of the VHF service, they'd be able to attract more users perhaps?

 

[ainsworth74]

East Coast line 1997, 18m

What's your source for that?

 

[HH]

SRA figures for 2003/2004 (million passenger journeys)
GNER: 15.8
Virgin West Coast: 14.9

ORR figures for 2010/2011 (million passenger journeys)
East Coast: 18.5
Virgin West Coast: 28.9

I haven't found any official stats older than 2003/2004.

We've had the WCML upgrade, costing £9bn (not funded by Virgin, rather the British taxpayer), which was taking place during 2003/04 but finished Dec 2008. And then we had the VHF timetable, which was enabled by the upgrade. ECML had what?

 

[WatcherZero]

What's your source for that?

Memory im afraid with ORR Portal currently down for site maintenence. About 10m transferred from East Coast to West Coast, unless your suggesting Virgin increased their passengers by 20m while East Coast remained static?

 

[Donny Dave]

Memory im afraid with ORR Portal currently down for site maintenence. About 10m transferred from East Coast to West Coast, unless your suggesting Virgin increased their passengers by 20m while East Coast remained static?

Looking at the figures posted above, it appears that passenger numbers on the ECML have grown, albeit not as quickly as the WCML.

Also, would passenger numbers for Virgin be increased after they took over the Birmingham - Scotland services from XC?