Flooding Disruption 31 July/1 August

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furnessvale

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I'm beginning to wonder whether you're being deliberately obtuse.

The police aren't the ones making risk determinations. They do, however, have the job of communicating those recommendations to other agencies (including the railway) involved in the incident. In the specific case of the Hope Valley line, expert advice was communicated, by the police, to the railway. That's how the process is supposed to work.

You now appear to be suggesting that it's best to wait until there is visible damage to critical infrastructure (e.g. bridges) before closing that infrastructure. Rarely, if ever, have I encountered such blinding stupidity. By the time damage is visible, it's too late (if you need an example of that just look at the dam itself).

Continuing to run trains through the Hope Valley is a risk that simply doesn't need to be taken. That's the expert advice, and the railway is right to follow it. Whether troublemaking bystanders like yourself agree or not.
Please point to my post that suggests that.
 
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furnessvale

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It’s not necessarily just about a sudden deluge if the dam lets go - the flow could be strong enough *now* to cause unseen damage, as they’ve got a number of high-volume pumps all working flat out to get water out of the reservoir and into the Goyt.
I wonder why they haven't used the quick release valve fitted fairly recently as required by law?
 

Greybeard33

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I ask again, the area where the line is, is subject to an amber alert as are 8 other areas in the UK. Are the lines closed in these other areas? PLease don't say the water at New Mills could rise catastrophically because if it can then the danger warning from the EA needs changing from Amber to risk to life.
Amber Flood Alerts mean "flooding is possible - be prepared." The type of preparation that is appropriate depends on the type of event that is anticipated. The other current amber alerts around the country are for relatively slow, predictable events. For example, there is an alert for the Mersey Uplands catchment, which is unaffected by Toddbrook, because of the forecast of more rain on Sunday and Monday. In such cases railway lines can be closed nearer the time, if the Flood Alert is upgraded to a Flood Warning ("Flooding is expected. Immediate action required.")

A dam breach is a much quicker, unpredictable event, so it is prudent to close the lines in the risk area as a precaution.

The judgement of "risk to life" can never be black and white. The risk progressively decreases with distance from the dam and a boundary has to be drawn somewhere. People occasionally drown even in a minor flood.
 

furnessvale

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Amber Flood Alerts mean "flooding is possible - be prepared." The type of preparation that is appropriate depends on the type of event that is anticipated. The other current amber alerts around the country are for relatively slow, predictable events. For example, there is an alert for the Mersey Uplands catchment, which is unaffected by Toddbrook, because of the forecast of more rain on Sunday and Monday. In such cases railway lines can be closed nearer the time, if the Flood Alert is upgraded to a Flood Warning ("Flooding is expected. Immediate action required.")

A dam breach is a much quicker, unpredictable event, so it is prudent to close the lines in the risk area as a precaution.

The judgement of "risk to life" can never be black and white. The risk progressively decreases with distance from the dam and a boundary has to be drawn somewhere. People occasionally drown even in a minor flood.
Agree with everything you say but I have just highlighted four words.

EAs own risk map shows the Hope Valley line is not in the risk area not least because any torrent from the dam would be caught by the canal embankment to Bugsworth followed by the new A6 byepass embankment. This is demonstrated by the risk area stopping so abruptly at the A6 byepass rather than petering out further down the valley.

Thanks for the measured responses as opposed to the vitriol displayed by others.
 

Crossover

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Today, Saturday 3rd, RTT shows that a freight has run from Peak Forest to the MML via Chinley and the Hope Valley, http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/R03922/2019/08/03/advanced. Four more freights are scheduled along this line later today (STP schedules activated).

The particular one you link there I think may be outside of the "danger" area?

Could TPE run service Man -Sheffield via Penistone line, taking next available normal service slot on that line and using Northern driver from that service for route knowledge?

I'm not too sure if the 185s have been cleared via the Penistone line to be honest.

I likewise can't imagine the 185's being cleared - there is no reason for them to be. Also length may be an issue even if they were, if you're going to try call at stations along the way (a 3 car 185 will be longer than anything that runs on that line). You'd also be limited to reversing in p4 at Huddersfield (p2 will be neither long enough, nor does it allow access to anywhere other than the Penistone line) and Huddersfield isn't known for its platform availability at the best of times!
 

Llanigraham

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Apparently than comes from the font of all engineering knowledge, a police officer.
A Police Officer who will have been in conference with officials from all the other bodies involved in this situation.
It will not and cannot have been a personal decision.
 

Greybeard33

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Agree with everything you say but I have just highlighted four words.

EAs own risk map shows the Hope Valley line is not in the risk area not least because any torrent from the dam would be caught by the canal embankment to Bugsworth followed by the new A6 byepass embankment. This is demonstrated by the risk area stopping so abruptly at the A6 byepass rather than petering out further down the valley.

Thanks for the measured responses as opposed to the vitriol displayed by others.
By "risk area" I meant the risk area for the amber alert, which is crossed by both lines west of New Mills South Junction.

The EA's long term reservoir risk assessment, which I linked in a previous post, shows that the flood would overwhelm the canal and A6 embankments, and continue downstream through New Mills, with a flood speed above 2m/s, roughly at the level of the amber area shown in the current Whaley Bridge flood warning map. And that modelling is based on the mean river level, not the current elevated level. Edit: but that modelling does also consider breaches of the Combes or Fernilee dams, which might cause a larger flood than Toddbrook. Nevertheless, the closure of the A6 over the embankment suggests that the authorities are not confident it will withstand the flood.

IMO, closure of the railway was the prudent response to the amber "be prepared" alert for this area.
 
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edwin_m

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I need to travel on Monday from Alfreton to Manchester. I presume it will be ok to get a Northern train from Alfreton up to Leeds and then change there for a TPE or Northern train to Manchester. There’s no information on EMT website about ticket acceptance from Alfreton or Chesterfield. I’m not bothered how long the journey will take I just need my ticket to be accepted.
You could also look at going via Derby and Stoke.

Fully agree and the second the dam shows signs of movement all trains are stopped, even before the water reaches New Mills, let alone starts to undermine the viaduct.

I ask again, the area where the line is, is subject to an amber alert as are 8 other areas in the UK. Are the lines closed in these other areas? PLease don't say the water at New Mills could rise catastrophically because if it can then the danger warning from the EA needs changing from Amber to risk to life.

I’ve seen at least one internal message referring to the risk of scour affecting the integrity of underbridges, quite possibly as a result of the strong flows that are already being experienced as the reservoir is drained as quickly as possible, as I’ve suggested upthread. I’ve seen a video of very substantial volumes of water shifting through New Mills. I’d suggest that the concerns are perfectly valid.

I think tomnick has the answer here.

The water is being discharged into the Goyt which will increase its flow levels, but if that was directly dangerous to anyone downstrean then the discharge would be reduced until those people could be evacuated. The assessment is that in the event of the total loss of the dam, direct risk to live would only extend as far as the A6 downstream. If it was going to go further then it would do so at a speed in the tens of mph so the warning time would be too short to do anything, and the fact people downstream generally haven't been evacuated indiates the authorities don't expect any risk to life beyond the A6.

But consider the WCML closure at Lamington a couple of years ago. There was no actual flooding so it was perfectly safe to stand on the river bank. But the high flow of water in the Clyde undermined the bridge piers and it was only by very good fortune that the bridge didn't collapse completely, or go out of alignment by enough to derail a train. The flow in the Goyt is now much more than usual, has been for some days and will be for several more, so there is a risk of similar undermining at the several places where the railway crosses the Goyt or is benched on a steep slope above it. The railway here is much higher above the river than at Lamington, or at Glanrhyd where a similar event in 1987 killed several people even though the train concerned was lightly loaded and moving slowly. So if a train was passing at or just after the time of collapse then the casualties could be into the dozens.
 

Mathew S

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Please point to my post that suggests that.
The post I was responding to.

You seem fixated on the fact that the EA website map doesn't include the railway in the 'red' area. That's beside the point. As others have said, and as I have been trying to get across to you, the experts are saying that leaving the railway open is too great a risk.

I genuinely don't understand why this is a decision you seem to have a problem with?
 

unlevel42

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The A6015 between the New Mills Newtown and The Village of New Mills is now closed.
Specifically down hill from the High Peak canal but above the mainline from Chinley to Hazel Grove.
Even more specifically at "Swizzels" works.
This YouTube video provided by the Swizzels Matlow shows the very close proximity of canal and Chinley Hazel Grove railway in a deep cutting and tunnel.
The viaduct over the Goyt is visable at 1'.04". Itself a threat of damage from Goyt.


This indicates that Authorities are worried about a flood flow down the canal and flowing into the cuttings and tunnel.
The A6015 canal bridge could become a "rubbish dam" forcing the water into the tunnel and cuttings below.

At New Mills Central the Chinley Marple line is supported by a 100 ft high stone embankment (millenium walk) *above the Goyt which could be undercut in a torrent.

*Trip Advisor
 
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daodao

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I do not understand why local trains cannot run along the Hope Valley line itself, between Sheffield and Hope, or even Edale or Chinley, although the last 2 destinations would require "wrong line" working. Similarly, a local train could run from Hazel Grove to Disley using wrong line working. I can only conclude that Northern Fail make use of any excuse not to run trains.

Clearly, the lines from Chapel to Disley, and Chinley to Hazel Grove/Marple Bridge, have to remain closed until this emergency situation is resolved.
 

Robertj21a

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It must be me, but its seems that some on here are quite oblivious to the very real dangers that still exist anywhere near the dam. It's as if running some trains is a far more important issue.

Crazy.
 

furnessvale

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It must be me, but its seems that some on here are quite oblivious to the very real dangers that still exist anywhere near the dam. It's as if running some trains is a far more important issue.

Crazy.
I must be one of the "some". I just wonder why official maps of the danger zone are different to what is taking place on the ground especially as I live in Funess Vale and I have to pass through three police cordons to get home. I personally live at the same altitude as the railway but I have friends who live at lower levels who have not been evacuated.

Crazy.
 
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daodao

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It must be me, but its seems that some on here are quite oblivious to the very real dangers that still exist anywhere near the dam. It's as if running some trains is a far more important issue.

Crazy.
I stated that "Clearly, the lines from Chapel to Disley, and Chinley to Hazel Grove/Marple Bridge, have to remain closed until this emergency situation is resolved." That is no reason why local trains cannot run from Sheffield to Edale, on the other side of the watershed.
 

noddingdonkey

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I likewise can't imagine the 185's being cleared - there is no reason for them to be. Also length may be an issue even if they were, if you're going to try call at stations along the way (a 3 car 185 will be longer than anything that runs on that line). You'd also be limited to reversing in p4 at Huddersfield (p2 will be neither long enough, nor does it allow access to anywhere other than the Penistone line) and Huddersfield isn't known for its platform availability at the best of times!

There was the oddity of 2M83 1717 Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield yesterday, which was via Huddersfield P8 then fast to Sheffield via Wakefield. 1 hour Huddersfield to Sheffield is quicker than via Penistone.

The number of people boarding and quickly getting off suggests that the conductor was pro-active with announcements before departure, given that this is possibly the only 185 to depart from P8 that was not going to Leeds.
 

_toommm_

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There was the oddity of 2M83 1717 Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield yesterday, which was via Huddersfield P8 then fast to Sheffield via Wakefield. 1 hour Huddersfield to Sheffield is quicker than via Penistone.

The number of people boarding and quickly getting off suggests that the conductor was pro-active with announcements before departure, given that this is possibly the only 185 to depart from P8 that was not going to Leeds.

They have been running most of the day yesterday, and are planned to run most of the day today too, going via Huddersfield and Wakefield Kirkgate. They just extend the normal Piccadilly to Huddersfield stoppers.
 

_toommm_

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I do not understand why local trains cannot run along the Hope Valley line itself, between Sheffield and Hope, or even Edale or Chinley, although the last 2 destinations would require "wrong line" working. Similarly, a local train could run from Hazel Grove to Disley using wrong line working. I can only conclude that Northern Fail make use of any excuse not to run trains.

Clearly, the lines from Chapel to Disley, and Chinley to Hazel Grove/Marple Bridge, have to remain closed until this emergency situation is resolved.

IIRC Manchester Picc to Sheffield is done with Manchester crew only, so you'd have to ferry them across in the morning, then either put them up overnight or ferry them back across afterwards.
 

30907

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I stated that "Clearly, the lines from Chapel to Disley, and Chinley to Hazel Grove/Marple Bridge, have to remain closed until this emergency situation is resolved." That is no reason why local trains cannot run from Sheffield to Edale, on the other side of the watershed.
No, but the fact that the stopping service is operated entirely from the Manchester end means that Northern would have to source crews and units at Sheffield.
 

daodao

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No, but the fact that the stopping service is operated entirely from the Manchester end means that Northern would have to source crews and units at Sheffield.
Northern could ask EMT to operate the local stopping service as far as Hope (or possibly Edale/Chinley) with the spare trains from Nottingham/Norwich that cannot currently get beyond Sheffield to Liverpool because of the blockade.

In the long-term, IMO, all passenger train services (fast and slow) via the Hope Valley line should be operated by the EM franchise, with the local services from Piccadilly to Glossop and Rose Hill (via Bredbury) handed over to Metrolink.
 

sonic2009

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I'm surprised that no RRB have been arranged for the lower part of the Hope Valley. The Skylink 199 service from Buxton to Manchster has been running albeit on diversion.
 

LowLevel

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EMT are at least running 4 and 5 car 15x lashups on all Derby to Crewe line trains to help diverted people today.
 

edwin_m

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I must be one of the "some". I just wonder why official maps of the danger zone are different to what is taking place on the ground especially as I live in Funess Vale and I have to pass through three police cordons to get home. I personally live at the same altitude as the railway but I have friends who live at lower levels who have not been evacuated.

Crazy.
Did you read my post #130?

Northern could ask EMT to operate the local stopping service as far as Hope (or possibly Edale/Chinley) with the spare trains from Nottingham/Norwich that cannot currently get beyond Sheffield to Liverpool because of the blockade.

In the long-term, IMO, all passenger train services (fast and slow) via the Hope Valley line should be operated by the EM franchise, with the local services from Piccadilly to Glossop and Rose Hill (via Bredbury) handed over to Metrolink.
Apparently EMT are using the units to strenthen Derby-Crewe (as just posted again). I would certainly take that route if I had to go to Manchester while this situation continues, rather than the slow and probably very busy TPE diversion via Huddersfield. I'd say providing for the long distance passengers is a much greater priority than the local stations, especially as any service there would only cater for Sheffield journeys not Manchester ones. Extra Nottingham-Stoke non-stop shuttles via Castle Donington, connecting to/from the Norwich service, would be even better but I appreciate the practical difficulties.

EMT or its successor will disappear completely from the Hope Valley route under the confirmed proposal to split the Liverpool-Norwich. So any single operator would have to be someone else.
 

bus man

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A few updates etc

Unless I’ve read it wrong the national Rail site totally ignores the Transpenine Sheffield - Huddersfield - Manchester Picc service.


The press are quoting the police as saying they hope to get the residents back into homes by end of week

Therefore the hope valley will have been without a service for a week.


Surely as others have said a rail service should be run if only one train every two hours terminating at Edale

Replacement bus service should be ok - subject to finding vehicles - as the hope valley bus services have been running.

The easiest option would be rail rep all stations to hope , may need to close part of car park so buses can turn round.

Mini bus shuttle to Edale - there is a tight/ narrow bridge where you can get full size Coaches over BUT it’s a very presise art - local drivers can do it but it’s difficult easier to use a mini bus shuttle , like on the standed pre planned hope valley closure.


Another alternative for Edale is to arrange ticket acceptance on the Stagecoach H1/H2 summer only service that includes Hope - Edale
 

noddingdonkey

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They have been running most of the day yesterday, and are planned to run most of the day today too, going via Huddersfield and Wakefield Kirkgate. They just extend the normal Piccadilly to Huddersfield stoppers.

Interesting, I hadn't spotted that. I'm guessing that took some creating shuffling of timetables and diagrams to make that possible.
 

furnessvale

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Did you read my post #130?
Yes. If the potential threat to the viaducts in New Mills is the CURRENT level of flow on the Goyt, as opposed to any increase due to a breach of the dam, why is the line not closed EVERY time the flow reaches this level.

I have seen the Goyt where the wier has disappeared in the flow but the trains still run.

My point still stands. Any movement of the dam liable to increase that flow should result in an immediate cessation of trains.
 

Mathew S

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Dogs paddling in the River Goyt yesterday under the railway viaduct. (Not my dogs or photo)

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10162118757185113&set=pcb.10162118757360113&type=3&theater

The water level sensor has been damaged which reinforces the need to post a lookout while it is repaired, not to stop all trains.
I don't understand. Why do you think you know better than the experts - engineers rail and civil, environment agency, canal and river trust, emergency services, and others - who, being in full possession of all the facts, have said that the safe thing to do is to close the railway?
 

Tomnick

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Yes. If the potential threat to the viaducts in New Mills is the CURRENT level of flow on the Goyt, as opposed to any increase due to a breach of the dam, why is the line not closed EVERY time the flow reaches this level.

I have seen the Goyt where the wier has disappeared in the flow but the trains still run.

My point still stands. Any movement of the dam liable to increase that flow should result in an immediate cessation of trains.
Typically, though, there'd be a relatively short peak flow some time after a rainfall event, with routine inspections frequently enough to identify any damage before it becomes a problem, whereas this is a heavy flow sustained over several days, so more likely to damage foundations enough to cause a dangerous situation before it subsides enough to permit an inspection.
 

Llanigraham

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Yes. If the potential threat to the viaducts in New Mills is the CURRENT level of flow on the Goyt, as opposed to any increase due to a breach of the dam, why is the line not closed EVERY time the flow reaches this level.

I have seen the Goyt where the wier has disappeared in the flow but the trains still run.

My point still stands. Any movement of the dam liable to increase that flow should result in an immediate cessation of trains.

To be blunt, you are not officially involved in this matter, you are not aware of all the facts, you are not and have not been in conference with all the engineers and experts who are involved, and as far as I can tell from your postings not an engineer qualified in dam construction and maintenance, or an expert in water and flood management or an expert in Major Incident Planning and Management. Frankly you are no more qualified to comment on the technical side of this incident than I am.
 

furnessvale

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I don't understand. Why do you think you know better than the experts - engineers rail and civil, environment agency, canal and river trust, emergency services, and others - who, being in full possession of all the facts, have said that the safe thing to do is to close the railway?
Put simply, the safest thing to do is to ALWAYS close the railway then arses are covered.

Instead, people who are paid good money should be making rational decisions based on the evidence rather than arse covering.

Despite 20 pumps working flat out for the previous day and a half, that was the level in the Goyt yesterday. If things get worse, by all means reassess the situation.

By the way, I love your thought that Canal and River Trust know what they are doing engineering wise!
 
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