WHAT??!!!!
I thought that might surprise you. My logic though is flawless:
1. NX absolutely have to win a meaningful Franchise (ET is too small to count) and this is their best chance in the near future.
2. Dean Finch, their CEO, regards GW as his baby. He sat there running it, like a puppet master, while others were officially the MD. Dean was also in overall charge of rail bidding when First won the Franchise last time.
3. Elaine Holt* also has strong reasons to want to win it, and so do other NX Execs that Dean has brought on board. I'm told that Paul Furze-Waddock (First's former bid head and GW Director) has left Virgin to join NX.
They will put in a very (£) competitive bid I feel sure. And will First, with all its current cashflow difficulties, be able to match them? Don't forget, like a lot of people seem to here, that this is first and foremost about who pays most.
*If she's still there. I hear a scurrilous story that a disgruntled contractor gave NX's bid to the opposition. This might mitigate against an NX victory, but I think that Dean's smart enough to turn that around.