Future plans in Wales

[allaction]

With the Welsh Assembly Government seemingly interested in exercising more control over the provision of rail services in Wales once the current Wales and Borders arrangements end (2017?), I wonder what people on this forum feel about Arriva Trains Wales's performance over the period of the franchise, and what should be provided in Wales in the next decade or so?

Putting aside the electrification of the Paddington line, and the ongoing proposals for the South Wales Metro, I'd be interested in hearing what forum members think should be provided elsewhere in Wales, and by whom: exclusively by ATW or another, rival, company, or under the direct management of WAG?

Personally, I think that ATW has done a reasonable job: their staff are generally first class, and when things go wrong on rail services, the company does its best to provide alternative bus substitution, but the company has needed a Governmental kick at times.

Obviously, the UK-wide lack of additional rolling stock has hindered plans, but a personal gripe of mine is the continuing lack of power points (and wifi) on the South Wales - Manchester trains over the period. When I've raised the issue with ATW, their standard response has been to point to their presence on the Aberystwyth - Birmingham route. Whoopie-do! Maybe the upgrading of the rolling stock will magically appear on their submission for the retention of the franchise? And please - no more Pacers!

What do others think - what is the way forward for the future provision of rail services in Wales and the Borders?

 

[BestWestern]

I'd have thought not spending mountains of cash on wiring the Valleys, given that electrification projects are rapidly becoming the industry's biggest headache, would be the most sensible decision that could be made. Make a proper decision to defer all efforts on it for, say, ten or fifteen years, and set a date for a formal review then. Nobody knows what political situation Wales as a whole or the Welsh rail network will be in at that point. Capitalise on the current climate and make a very good deal to acquire Class 143/144 sets from Northern, negotiate favourable leasing costs or preferably just purchase them outright, have them put through an intensive refurb/rebuild and use them effectively as diesel 'tram-tains' up there. Concentrate other stock elsewhere, perhaps releasing some costlier-to-lease Class 150 sets to go back up north.

 

[G136GREYHOUND]

1) Ditch wiring the valleys, spend the money elsewhere

2) re-open to passenger traffic Bedlinog - Ystrad Mynach with a park and ride at Cwmbargoed

3) Reopen Aberdare to Hirwaun and extend the line under the heads of the valleys down to N&B and Swansea

4) Put a station in at Aberbeeg and start taking the bloody trains into Newport.
( What utter dip**** didn't insist on a bay platform at Newport when the station was "rebuilt" )

5) Link Coryton line to Taff's Well line ( fat chance though )

6) Put stations at : Magor and Caerleon

7) Re-instate the line from Aberystwyth - Carmarthern

8) Spent all this money on inventing a working time machine and send someone back to kill the Cabinet of the day and Dr Beeching

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Valley Lines electrification is a straight forward job, and little scope for it going wrong as it's all been resignalled, most of it after NR knew electrification is coming.

We know where the signalling cabling is, it's all new, so won't turn to dust when the piling starts, it's all immunised too, whilst some of the wiring work needed comes as part of the South Wales Main Line electrification, and there's not a huge amount of clearance works needed in the grand scheme of things.

It's arguably the easiest of the electrification projects lined up, lots of access windows during the week, diversionary route at Radyr into Cardiff, the possibility of keeping lots of services going during longer closures etc.

 

[BestWestern]

Valley Lines electrification is a straight forward job, and little scope for it going wrong as it's all been resignalled, most of it after NR knew electrification is coming.

We know where the signalling cabling is, it's all new, so won't turn to dust when the piling starts, it's all immunised too, whilst some of the wiring work needed comes as part of the South Wales Main Line electrification, and there's not a huge amount of clearance works needed in the grand scheme of things.

It's arguably the easiest of the electrification projects lined up, lots of access windows during the week, diversionary route at Radyr into Cardiff, the possibility of keeping lots of services going during longer closures etc.

That just leaves the astronomical cost of it all, then...

Will that be the WAG or Whitehall stumping up for it!?

 

[TH172341]

There's two sides of the coin with the Valleys electrification; good side is that it will allow the withdrawal of the Pacers and allow Sprinters to be cascaded and potential capacity increases, as well as reduced journey times. Downside of course is the cost and the fact that would new EMUs be used - could simply be cast offs from London (e,g 315s) that need refurbishing and are not much different to the previous incarnations running on the line.

Frankly I'd put the money in for new DMUs on the Valleys and leave the electrification for another day. I currently live on the Snow Hill lines which exists perfectly fine without electrification - with the 172s coming in the service quality has been much improved and it's a good well run line. A similar scenario can easily be rolled out in the Valleys; I can see the sense in electrification but at the moment costs at NR need controlling and new stock and electrification wouldn't be cheap - already there seems to be a drive to find ways to fund the project. Sideline some of the investment for some of the schemes already mentioned which could prove of use in Wales.

Whatever the outcome, a decision needs to be made sooner rather than later; otherwise if electrification is pursued with over the next few years, there's going to need to be a strict timeline or plan considering the number of Pacers that would need modification potentially to see past 2020 till electrification is complete. If the latter occured you'd be hit with a double whammy of costs, in electrification, procuring potential new stock and life extending the Pacers.

 

[craigybagel]

I'm quite surprised about all the negative posts regarding Valleys Electrification. A very busy network with stations closely spaced together, steep gradients and mostly life expired diesel stock should be an ideal candidate for Electrification. Given how popular it is now it'd be interesting to see how popular it'd be with speeded up timetables and quiter(and hopefully newer of stock other than 315s is used) trains. I've complained about the WAGs forcus on Cardiff to the detriment of the rest of the network before but this is one thing I agree on them with.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

That just leaves the astronomical cost of it all, then...

Will that be the WAG or Whitehall stumping up for it!?

What astronomical cost ?

The electrification of the Valley Lines together with London to Swansea (as one package) produced a BCR of 4:1, so for every £1 spent, £4 is generated (when calculated over 30 years). That effectively means Welsh Valley electrification would pay for itself within 7.5 years.

The calculations have moved in recent months, as a result of the oil price drop and lower diesel fuel costs for rolling stock, but refusing to electrify the Valley Lines and ordering new diesel stock, rather than electrification and purchasing new electric stock, would be significantly more expensive over 30 years (and electrification doesn't last for just 30 years).

 

[Y961 XBU]

Never had any major problems with ATW, Just that the Manchester - Cardiff Service needs plug sockets and they need to stop using 2 car 175s on the Manchester - Llandudno Service

 

[Envoy]

The Valley Lines clearly need to be electrified - and provided with new air conditioned trains rather than old units from a land to the east. I am not in favour of trams being introduced to complete their journeys on the streets of Cardiff. Full sized electric trains are needed using the present system of tracks with some additions - such as Aberdare to Hirwaun. An electrified Ebbw Vale to Newport service is also needed. Caerleon should also have a new station.

St.Mellons should have a new station (on the relief's) combined with a large car park & bus links. This will enable Cardiffians in the east of the city to go direct to Newport for main line trains rather than have to travel in the wrong direction (for England) to Cardiff Central. It would also enable the local populous to reach Cardiff Central quickly.

The Maesteg line should be electrified and such a service will also serve as the stopper between Bridgend and Cardiff. (It could be linked with the Ebbw Vale service). At present, Pontyclun has overloaded parking near the station. Combine that with crowded trains and it must be assumed that many people will drive into to Cardiff. Free car parks by stations do seem to induce rail travel. Combine that with modern electric trains with enough capacity and many more will cease driving their cars into cities like Cardiff and Newport.

Trams running on the streets will clearly screw up any schedules and to increase frequency from the heads of the valleys would clearly mean having to twin track the upper valleys. What the upper valleys need are faster trains down to Cardiff and that surely cannot be provided by trams with increased stops - both in the valleys and Cardiff suburbs? By sticking with proper trains, we can retain the longer (30 miles or so) trips across south Wales from places like Merthyr & Rhymney all the way to Penarth/ Barry/Roose - Cardiff Airport. I can't see any advantage in having a slower running tram service running from say Rhymney to Cardiff Queen Street to then go to street level to the Bay instead of Penarth. Far better to just have a local tram from Queen Street to the Bay - and even that is not ideal as such a service should surely have gone from Cardiff Central? The main shopping streets of Cardiff are just a short walk from Queen Street & Central stations - so no need for trams here.

The Marches line is the most direct route from south Wales to Crewe and points north - all the way to Scotland. However, fares to/from south Wales to places north of Crewe are fixed at ridiculously high prices. This seems to be because ATW do not link their advance prices to those of Virgin West Coast. Where 2 (or more) companies are used for journeys, the rail companies should be forced to get their systems to provide the cheapest through fare option - without the public having to go through all this split ticketing nonsense. Failing that, I would like to see Virgin (or whoever operates the West Coast mainline) also run the south Wales to Manchester service. Hence, we should have cheaper fares between Scotland & south Wales as well as the north west of England. This would be particularly so because Cross Country operate between Bristol & Manchester as well as Scotland via Newcastle. We would then have 2 companies competing to offer the best prices between south Wales & the north.

 

[TDK]

1) Ditch wiring the valleys, spend the money elsewhere

2) re-open to passenger traffic Bedlinog - Ystrad Mynach with a park and ride at Cwmbargoed

3) Reopen Aberdare to Hirwaun and extend the line under the heads of the valleys down to N&B and Swansea

4) Put a station in at Aberbeeg and start taking the bloody trains into Newport.
( What utter dip**** didn't insist on a bay platform at Newport when the station was "rebuilt" )

5) Link Coryton line to Taff's Well line ( fat chance though )

6) Put stations at : Magor and Caerleon

7) Re-instate the line from Aberystwyth - Carmarthern

8) Spent all this money on inventing a working time machine and send someone back to kill the Cabinet of the day and Dr Beeching

That is very southern based - we do have a Welsh railway in the North in case you hadn't noticed.
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I'm quite surprised about all the negative posts regarding Valleys Electrification. A very busy network with stations closely spaced together, steep gradients and mostly life expired diesel stock should be an ideal candidate for Electrification. Given how popular it is now it'd be interesting to see how popular it'd be with speeded up timetables and quiter(and hopefully newer of stock other than 315s is used) trains. I've complained about the WAGs forcus on Cardiff to the detriment of the rest of the network before but this is one thing I agree on them with.

Have the WG not got a different plan for the Valley Lines?

 

[G136GREYHOUND]

That is very southern based - we do have a Welsh railway in the North in case you hadn't noticed.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


Have the WG not got a different plan for the Valley Lines?

i concur, it is very South Wales based, I have however zero knowledge of the rail network along the North Wales coast so refrained from commenting on it from a position of ignorance

 

[ChiefPlanner]

Valleys Lines a must for wiring - if need be on a "value engineered" basis with low cost catenary and Paisley Canal line treatment on structures. Priority one being the Rhymney line linked through to Barry Island and the Vale to get a quick return on these very busy peak routes.

Then work through the other sections , including the Maesteg route.

Wire Crewe - Chester and use bi-modes west of there. Resignal whole line to Holyhead and hunt out speed improvements. Wire Salop - Wrexham - Chester , and Salop - Wolverhampton.

Double service and capacity on the Wrexham - Bidston line - (maybe increase service from Shotton - Bidston)

Line speed improvements in West Wales - noteably the Pembroke Dock line.

 

[craigybagel]

Have the WG not got a different plan for the Valley Lines?

I thought they wanted Electrification as well? Didn't they have an argument with Westminster last year about who should pay for it?

 

[PHILIPE]

Never had any major problems with ATW, Just that the Manchester - Cardiff Service needs plug sockets and they need to stop using 2 car 175s on the Manchester - Llandudno Service

There's hardly any 2 Car 175s on the Manchester to Llandudnos now. Substitute South/West Wales for Llandudno.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

That is very southern based - we do have a Welsh railway in the North in case you hadn't noticed.
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Have the WG not got a different plan for the Valley Lines?

Yes - 6 x 23m units apart from Coryton and Cardiff Bay which is 4 x 23m from memory. Those routes might drift towards a tram-train solution in the fullness of time if a tram network in Cardiff is approved.

The 6 x 23m unit length gives the option of 2 x 3 car units or 1 x 6 car unit, and I think the later is probably more sensible. No point wasting space duplicating cabs and accessible toilets (just add more suitable spaces/seating around 1 accessible toilet) and with a 6 vehicle unit, it's possible to duplicate some traction components to create a more reliable, fault tolerant unit. It would need SDO for Coryton and Cardiff Bay, but hardly a problem as there's no blocking of junctions on the routes involved.

 

[swt_passenger]

There was a fairly recent related thread about transferring some present ATW routes to 'English' franchises: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showthread.php?t=124389

 

[HSTEd]

Newbuild diesel units on the Valleys will lead to drastically increased subsidies for the next 30 years.

How do you propose to pay for that?

 

[BestWestern]

Newbuild diesel units on the Valleys will lead to drastically increased subsidies for the next 30 years.

How do you propose to pay for that?

The Welsh government will of course stump up the cash...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

North Wales needs a new pattern of services linked to the West Coast franchise.
A 2-hourly through WC service from Euston would allow the W&B franchise to concentrate on the other hour and some stoppers.
It needs the WC franchise to get new EMUs to replace the Voyagers under the wires.
WC services could alternate between Bangor/Holyhead and Llandudno.
The local NE Wales transport organisation (Taith) wants the new Chester-Leeds service extended to North Wales, maybe alternately to Wrexham/Bangor.
Then there's the Liverpool opportunities via the Halton Curve, which might also alternate.
Chester needs to be wired in time to take HS2 classic-compatible services.
There should be more fast services Chester/North Wales-Birmingham (via Stafford, not via Salop).

The Cambrian/Birmingham route is stuck with 158s because of the ETCS requirement for the route west of Shrewsbury.
There won't be any other ETCS routes/stock on the W&B network before HS2.
Cambrian-Crewe (-Manchester/Liverpool) would be a useful upgrade.
Rolling-stock wise the ex-TPE 185s might make a good upgrade path for Manchester-Cardiff (which needs to be accelerated as a pseudo intercity service).
W&B also need to find an economical way to speed up some services by skip-stopping (eg Llandudno-Manchester), or adding some new stoppers.

Final request: through services North West-Marches-Bristol.
I think there is at least as much demand from Hereford and northwards for Bristol (and beyond) as for Cardiff.

 

[craigybagel]

Rolling-stock wise the ex-TPE 185s might make a good upgrade path for Manchester-Cardiff (which needs to be accelerated as a pseudo intercity service).
W&B also need to find an economical way to speed up some services by skip-stopping (eg Llandudno-Manchester), or adding some new stoppers.

Unless you did something about the various MU and HST speed differentials 185s would probably slow the service, not accelerate it. Although given there is I believe dispensation for 67 and MkIIIs to run at MU speeds on that route maybe something could be done.

Final request: through services North West-Marches-Bristol.
I think there is at least as much demand from Hereford and northwards for Bristol (and beyond) as for Cardiff.

I don't know about "as much" but there is definitely a big market for Bristol and beyond. Lots of people connecting at Newport at present , especially in the morning peak. Very big and poorly served market I would think.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Unless you did something about the various MU and HST speed differentials 185s would probably slow the service, not accelerate it. Although given there is I believe dispensation for 67 and MkIIIs to run at MU speeds on that route maybe something could be done.



I don't know about "as much" but there is definitely a big market for Bristol and beyond. Lots of people connecting at Newport at present , especially in the morning peak. Very big and poorly served market I would think.

Ive dug out a copy of the Wales Rail Planning Assessment from 2007 it gives flows between areas for 2004/2005. Whilst 10 years old this does give us some idea of the flows in relation to each other.

North Wales & Cambrian to Cardiff/Newport &SE Wales/Valleys came in at 46,000.
North Wales & Cambrian to west of Cardiff ie Mid South Wales and SW Wales was 2000.
North Wales & Cambrian to SW England was 38,000.
Marches to SW England was 26,000.

Plus you have your NW England to SW England market that could come this way.

 

[craigybagel]

Ive dug out a copy of the Wales Rail Planning Assessment from 2007 it gives flows between areas for 2004/2005. Whilst 10 years old this does give us some idea of the flows in relation to each other.

North Wales & Cambrian to Cardiff/Newport &SE Wales/Valleys came in at 46,000.
North Wales & Cambrian to west of Cardiff ie Mid South Wales and SW Wales was 2000.
North Wales & Cambrian to SW England was 38,000.
Marches to SW England was 26,000.

Plus you have your NW England to SW England market that could come this way.

Cheers for that, I thought the figures would be high alright. As for the NW England to SW England market there already are quite a few coming this way - or at least I see lots of those tickets. The discount for "Via Hereford" tickets does probably help.

 

[Bevan Price]

Rolling-stock wise the ex-TPE 185s might make a good upgrade path for Manchester-Cardiff (which needs to be accelerated as a pseudo intercity service).
f.

Bad idea in my opinion - it would make overcrowding much worse, as a 185 has a lot fewer seats (standard class) than a 3 car Class 175.

Indeed, I would suggest that the layout of a 175 is preferable for long journeys - they just need at least 4 coach trains on many services.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Cheers for that, I thought the figures would be high alright. As for the NW England to SW England market there already are quite a few coming this way - or at least I see lots of those tickets. The discount for "Via Hereford" tickets does probably help.

There's a mere trifling 675000 of them between NW and SW.

 

[swcovas]

Line speed improvements in West Wales - noteably the Pembroke Dock line.

Certainly agree on that. The Pembroke Dock branch sees perhaps the worst stock utilisation of any line in Wales with each unit sitting at the terminus for almost an hour before returning back toward Whitland. And it could probably be resolved so easily by sorting out the level crossings between Tenby and Pembroke Dock. Stil, it involves money which no one wants to stump up although looking at it simplistically I guess the money would be well spent as it would effectively release another unit.

 

[Llanigraham]

Certainly agree on that. The Pembroke Dock branch sees perhaps the worst stock utilisation of any line in Wales with each unit sitting at the terminus for almost an hour before returning back toward Whitland. And it could probably be resolved so easily by sorting out the level crossings between Tenby and Pembroke Dock. Stil, it involves money which no one wants to stump up although looking at it simplistically I guess the money would be well spent as it would effectively release another unit.

A very simplistic answer!!
I am sure there are several reasons the train needs to sit there, from timetable clashes on a possible return journey to staff rest periods.
And what would you do about the level crossings?

 

[Gareth Marston]

We certainly need to see site of a clear plan beyond the Cardiff Travel to Work area and an aspiration for an hourly service between Cardiff and Holyhead. 1.5 million people live in SE Wales traveling to Cardiff in metro style is the right move for them however an hourly train from Cardiff to Holyhead is completely irrelevant to the needs of 99.5% of the other 1.5 million people in Wales.

Wales and Borders is at the back of queue for franchise renewal so any rolling stock cascades elsewhere will already be done and dusted unless the WG intervenes before franchise renewal date. The only chink is the current GW 143 fleet, moving them onto Valley lines until electrification and freeing a few 150's for elsewhere is about as much as you can get and get away with. Politically Wales getting the Norths cast offs wont be acceptable - even though there the same trains.

outside the Cardiff travel to work area:

Concentrating the entire ATW 158 fleet (24) into the Ex Central Trains routes assuming the current franchise boundary is kept is probably the best thing to do as the Cambrian needs ETCS stock. You could run Chester to Birmingham hrly, Aberystwyth to Crewe 2 hrly and Pwlhelli/ Aberystwyth to Birmingham 2 hrly maintaining an hourly frequency from Shropshire into the West Midlands and having enough stock to run 6 cars east of Shrewsbury.

The 175 fleet at Chester can then concentrate on Manchester to Cardiff, Manchester to N Wales and N Wales to Birmingham via Stafford.

I would get a small fleet of 5 car bi modes and run a number of genuine "Welsh Express trains" between Pembrokeshire and Cardiff via Swansea District Line and then North Wales maybe 3/4 a day.

The West Wales/HOW services would be maintained out of Swansea Landore with a connecting train to the hourly IEP at Swansea and a second trian per hourr at least as far as Llanelli.

 

[pemma]

The Welsh government will of course stump up the cash...

By putting a call in to Westminister in a teenage girl's voice "Dad I need these new trains now, everyone else them and it's not fair if I don't, everyone else will make out we're poor if I don't get them."
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The 175 fleet at Chester can then concentrate on Manchester to Cardiff, Manchester to N Wales and N Wales to Birmingham via Stafford.

Suggestion is Alstom will let the lease on the Chester depot expire if their plans for a new facility near Widnes gets planning permission and Arriva, who'll need a new depot for Northern and will run additional services in Cheshire from 2017, see that as a viable new depot for Northern so it may not be available for the next Welsh franchise.

Wales and Borders is at the back of queue for franchise renewal so any rolling stock cascades elsewhere will already be done and dusted unless the WG intervenes before franchise renewal date.

Not quite. GWR expires after ATW but GWR already have plans to release their 143s, 150/1s and 153s before the next franchise and those plans would have been known to Northern bidders. There's also XC expiring in 2019 and DfT have the option of a further 12 month extension for EMT (Wales & Borders only has a 6 month option) so Wales & Borders could happen before EMT.

 

[Class 170101]

I can only see XC 170s being at risk. The rest of the fleet would be either too old or expensive for Wales and Borders.

HSTs will end their days on XC and now Scotrail anyway.