DarloRich
Veteran Member
7% swing Labour to UKIP in Sunderland West. UKIP in second place!!!!
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General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results
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Certainly hope so
Best news of the night is that a rumour is now going around that Galloway may lose his seat 
90sWereBetter
Member
A senior Lib Dem source has reported that Danny Alexander has lost in Inverness.
Additionally, rumours that Labour may have held on to a bunch of seats around Edinburgh.
Additionally, rumours that Labour may have held on to a bunch of seats around Edinburgh.
DarloRich
Veteran Member
Lord Ashcroft Exit Poll:
CON - 34%
LAB - 31%
UKIP - 14%
LDEM - 9%
GRN - 7%
CON - 34%
LAB - 31%
UKIP - 14%
LDEM - 9%
GRN - 7%
90sWereBetter
Member
Additionally, Farage is apparently not a happy bunny, which sounds like he's lost Thanet South. Gamechanger for UKIP if that's the case.
Well hopefully he wont be a happy bunny although the flash on the BBC earlier was that UKIP thought he had won, I get the impression the UKIP vote might be higher than expected in quite a few seats.
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Blindtraveler
Established Member
A win for the Torys tonight would be to my mind terrible. Another 5 years of bashing the most vulnerable. It cannot happen. In the interests of not upsetting anyone however they could bring economic stabilitty forward but lets see
Blindtraveler
Established Member
Hardly a shock given how lively its been up here but good people are getting involved
Indeed, good to see a positive legacy from the referendum. In 2010, Scotland's vote didn't change yet the political landscape swung wildly. It would have been easy to declare that Scottish votes mean nothing. On the contrary, this year Scotland has never been more important.
Signs that Tom Clarke (Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill) is unlikely to retain his seat, which would not be unexpected, but a sign of the catastrophic collapse in the Labour vote. Tom Clarke historically held the safest seat in the country, and just a couple of years ago I'd have said that I'd never have expected to see that seat go any other way.
Perhaps Paddy Ashdown better get his hat out...
Down in London, the two seats declared so far (Tooting and Putney) are showing a collapse in LD support, but their former supporters seem to be splitting their vote amongst multiple parties and so no changes as of yet.
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Labour getting very angry at the moment as it's becoming clear that they're losing multiple key seats, blaming the SNP.
Some of them have been complaining about the FPTP giving the SNP >95% of the seats without a similar proportion of the vote. They seemed, however, to be rather happy with this arrangement when it returned multiple safe Labour seats year after year. Suddenly, as I expected, many of them are becoming attracted to the notion of PR.
Some of them claiming that the SNP vote has led to another Conservative government, which is another interesting perspective. Considering that in Scotland we are unlikely to return more than 1 Tory MP (if that), if there is a Tory majority there is nothing that we could have done to stop this! Voting Labour would not have achieved anything. The Conservatives would still have had a majority.
I'm going to allow these basic errors in logic to be explained by post-election fatigue and frustration, and will assume that the Labour candidates are more intelligent than that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
SNP taken a whopping 30,000 votes (exactly) in Kilmarnock & Loudoun and knocked Cathy Jamieson out. Record breaking 26% swing to SNP.
That's one face I was keen to see wiped out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And Na h-Eileanan an Iar return an SNP with an increased majority (+9%).
Signs that Tom Clarke (Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill) is unlikely to retain his seat, which would not be unexpected, but a sign of the catastrophic collapse in the Labour vote. Tom Clarke historically held the safest seat in the country, and just a couple of years ago I'd have said that I'd never have expected to see that seat go any other way.
Perhaps Paddy Ashdown better get his hat out...
Down in London, the two seats declared so far (Tooting and Putney) are showing a collapse in LD support, but their former supporters seem to be splitting their vote amongst multiple parties and so no changes as of yet.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Labour getting very angry at the moment as it's becoming clear that they're losing multiple key seats, blaming the SNP.
Some of them have been complaining about the FPTP giving the SNP >95% of the seats without a similar proportion of the vote. They seemed, however, to be rather happy with this arrangement when it returned multiple safe Labour seats year after year. Suddenly, as I expected, many of them are becoming attracted to the notion of PR.
Some of them claiming that the SNP vote has led to another Conservative government, which is another interesting perspective. Considering that in Scotland we are unlikely to return more than 1 Tory MP (if that), if there is a Tory majority there is nothing that we could have done to stop this! Voting Labour would not have achieved anything. The Conservatives would still have had a majority.
I'm going to allow these basic errors in logic to be explained by post-election fatigue and frustration, and will assume that the Labour candidates are more intelligent than that.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
SNP taken a whopping 30,000 votes (exactly) in Kilmarnock & Loudoun and knocked Cathy Jamieson out. Record breaking 26% swing to SNP.
That's one face I was keen to see wiped out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
And Na h-Eileanan an Iar return an SNP with an increased majority (+9%).
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Professor behind the Exit Poll now saying that it's starting to look like the poll may have been wrong and the Conservatives might get an outright majority.
I suppose we'll find out when the actual election results are declared.
Exit polls really only exist to give the rolling election broadcasts something to actually talk about for the 5-6 hours until we get real results, and I think they should be interpreted with caution.
Exit polls really only exist to give the rolling election broadcasts something to actually talk about for the 5-6 hours until we get real results, and I think they should be interpreted with caution.
Searle
Established Member
what a lovely round figure of 30,000 :P Lib Dems are off the mark after holding Ceredigion as well
Douglas Alexander of Scottish Labour just lost to a 20 year old student for SNP in Paisley! wow
Douglas Alexander of Scottish Labour just lost to a 20 year old student for SNP in Paisley! wow
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And Douglas Alexander (Lab) lost to the SNP in Paisley, a 20 year old student from my Alma Mater who becomes the youngest MP in over 100 years.
The head of UK Labour's election strategy loses to a student.
The record set just minutes ago in Kilmarnock has already been broken - a 27% swing to SNP here. This is very much the bloodbath that some were predicting.
The head of UK Labour's election strategy loses to a student.
The record set just minutes ago in Kilmarnock has already been broken - a 27% swing to SNP here. This is very much the bloodbath that some were predicting.
And again now in Dundee West - 29% swing!
Searle
Established Member
The claim of SNP gaining every single seat in Scotland is quickly becoming a reality, swing in the 20%'s for nearly every constituency. Saying that, how exactly do they calculate the % swing?
Searle
Established Member
SNP are beating Conservatives at the moment, 8 to 6
SNP could very well hold 58 seats. This is spectacular and beyond most people's wildest expectation. It's bizarre to see a swing 24% being described as "relatively modest".
SNP gain Ochil & South Perthshire, although they polled less than 50% of the vote there.
And SNP have just won East Kilbride with again about 50% of the vote.
And Motherwell & Wishaw also gone to SNP: Motherwell & Wishaw contains Ravenscraig and should be Labour heartlands.
And Angus & Dundee West gone to SNP as well. We are now at 12 seats.
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I can't help but feel that I'm watching the beginning of the end of the UK as these Scottish results come in.
Indeed, it is hard to argue that voting is a civil responsibility if the responsibility is not reciprocated by providing a fair voting system.
Me too, but I suspect we've got wildly different feelings about it!
Politically speaking yes. Makes the Scottish Independence vote of No look a little odd now. Maybe that slight reluctance to break free held them back.
Find it funny that around the time of the Scot Independence vote Labour were relieved as they could apparently have a few seats to hold in the 'UK'. Maybe not...
Edit: The Alexander Vs. Student constituency vote was the highlight so far...
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Searle
Established Member
ironic as we were promised that there won't be another referendum for however many years (many more than five)
I'll give it until the end of 2018 before the next referendum is at least scheduled if not held.
If SNP take 58 seats, and there's a Tory majority, and we withdraw from the EU, the constitutional picture may have changed enough for it to be justified. IIRC, the constitutional convention is that we could call another referendum 7 years from the last? (Although it's not set in stone).
Jo Swinson has just lost Dunbartonshire East to the SNP, but still polled a respectable 19,926 votes, losing only 2% of the vote.
I actually quite liked her.
SNP have definitely now set a record for number of SNP MPs. Currently a 25% swing apparently. This in a country where swings of 2% can be influential.
Rutherglen & Hamilton West gone to SNP by another overwhelming majority - again, Labour heartlands, but I think this one was easily predicted.
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath (Gordon Brown's seat until a few weeks ago) has fallen to SNP, again a massive majority of almost 10,000 and a new record swing of 35%.
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Searle
Established Member
I liked her as well actually, quite impressive to only be losing 2% of the vote, compared to what Labour are losing.
I'm confident that the country will vote to stay in the EU if there is a referendum, but I am starting to get nervous now :P
TheNewNo2
Member
I don't see the slightest chance that the UK stays in the EU. The only hope of staying in died as soon as it was clear to be a Tory government again. People don't like the EU, and they don't understand what it's about, and so they will vote to leave it.
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