General Election 2017: The Results and Aftermath

[AlterEgo]

Will the said money be split over different departments in Northern Ireland and if so, how will your thoughts expressed above show the geographical area split where each department will actually allocate such monies.

This is why there is the need for the Northern Ireland Executive to function again.

There's a simplistic and one-dimensional view I hear aired, namely: "Well the money is going to the Executive, so it must be going to be distributed evenly, right? That's how democracy works".

Well, not quite.

Northern Ireland is a partitioned area of a larger geographical entity and suffers, somewhat uniquely, from considerable geographical and structural issues which are rooted in both constitutional and social history.

This is difficult to explain easily so I was looking for other articles which articulate this better than I can, and lo:

A good example of this can be found in the following blog post on Slugger O'Toole (well recommended reading for NI political junkies, as long as you don't spend too long in the comments section). This one just focuses on transport infrastructure:

The £400m for Infrastructure in the Conservative-DUP agreement will only exacerbate Northern Ireland’s east-west divide

https://sluggerotoole.com/2017/06/2...xacerbate-northern-irelands-east-west-divide/

Some key takeaways:

If you overlay NI’s current transport facilities onto a map of the province’s religious demography, it instantly becomes clear that our infrastructure provision is as much a problem of religion as it is economics or regional balance. Whilst any explanation of how this situation arose in the first place would doubtless be the subject of animated debate, it is indisputable that Northern Ireland’s infrastructure is currently polarised not just geographically, but also along sectarian lines

almost all of NI’s 60 miles of motorway and 54 train stations are located to the east of the River Bann (the province’s traditional mid-point), with the west left very much the poor relation.

It’s not so much that Northern Ireland has an infrastructure problem – it’s more the case that its western half does.

Northern Ireland’s current infrastructure provision therefore presents an economic, social and demographic challenge to anyone who wants to see a genuinely shared society created here. Whether this is acknowledged in Stormont (by both politicians and civil servants) is unclear – though the lack of a stated intent and a determined strategy to address the situation would suggest not.

the only transport project specifically named as a priority within the Conservative-DUP deal is the York Street Interchange in Belfast – which is not currently an agreed Stormont transport priority. That is largely because it is relatively new, having only navigated its public enquiry in 2015 and progressed to the ‘Notice to Proceed’ and design phases at the end of last year. Yet this project now finds itself pushed to the front of the queue with funding enshrined under the Conservative-DUP deal. The fact that York Street just happens to sit within the marginal North Belfast constituency of DUP Deputy-Leader Nigel Dodds MP is, of course, purely coincidental. Party preferences appear to be over-riding ojective need when it comes to the prioritisation of Northern Ireland’s key infrastructure spending.

You can closely examine other areas of public spending and see how structural and historical inequalities remain largely unaddressed, if you so wish.

 

[Tetchytyke]

But can be voted down more or less at any time the opposition parties feel like it - thus is inherently unstable.

Germany has had a minority government- by design- for all the postwar period.

Germany may be many things, but it is not unstable.

Opposition parties will vote down things they disagree with. They will vote for things they agree with. So you come to a consensus.

Major's government is generally regarded as having been a complete disaster.

Ironically because his own backbenchers revolted, and not because of anything the opposition did.

it is not inconcievable that JEremy could offer somethng that would be so valuable to the Unionist cause that they would accept him.

Such as?

 

[HSTEd]

The western half of NI having less infrastructure might have something to do with it having a significantly lower population density.

Like what?

Well an example could be civil service relocations that could provide large numbers of people who's livelihoods depend on the union remaining intact.
Or you could een offer an Irish Sea crossing that, combined with suitable construction/reconstruction of railway links on the Scottish side would turn Belfast into an outer commuter region for Glasgow.

 

[AlterEgo]

The western half of NI having less infrastructure might have something to do with it having a significantly lower population density.

That issue was addressed in the piece, and also in the comment section below. (Basically, "chicken and egg".)

 

[AlterEgo]

Or you could een offer an Irish Sea crossing that, combined with suitable construction/reconstruction of railway links on the Scottish side would turn Belfast into an outer commuter region for Glasgow.

Not this again!

Won't happen in the current climate - doesn't mean it isn't an intrinsically good idea, but rather that there are too many obstacles which preclude its success.

 

[DarloRich]

Not this again!

Won't happen in the current climate - doesn't mean it isn't an intrinsically good idea, but rather that there are too many obstacles which preclude its success.

the biggest been that the deal for the DUP would be:

Give up your political power in an united and majority catholic Ireland and we will give you a bridge! :roll: yeah they will sign up for that!

 

[HSTEd]

the biggest been that the deal for the DUP would be:

Give up your political power in an united and majority catholic Ireland and we will give you a bridge! :roll: yeah they will sign up for that!

Wait what?
Do you really believe Jeremy Corbyn could seriously deliver a parliamentary majority for a 'United And Catholic' Ireland, even though Northern Ireland is still majority Unionist and likely will be for decades more?

The Prime Minister is not some sort of dictator.
Especially considering in that scenario they would almost certainly have the balance of power anyway.

 

[DarloRich]

Wait what?
Do you really believe Jeremy Corbyn could seriously deliver a parliamentary majority for a 'United And Catholic' Ireland, even though Northern Ireland is still majority Unionist and likely will be for decades more?

The Prime Minister is not some sort of dictator.
Especially considering in that scenario they would almost certainly have the balance of power anyway.

if Mr Corbyn gained a majority he could do just that. While i don't think that will ever happen the prospect wont sit well with the DUP nor would his past statements on honouring IRA terrorists engender in them feelings of warmth and mutal co operation.

 

[AlterEgo]

No Prime Minister would circumvent the Good Friday Agreement in that way, which is an international treaty between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement sets out the route for any unification of Ireland as being through referendum.

 

[DarloRich]

No Prime Minister would circumvent the Good Friday Agreement in that way, which is an international treaty between the UK and Republic of Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement sets out the route for any unification of Ireland as being through referendum.

His stated view is for a united Ireland. As PM he merely has to start down that road and momentum will do the rest. Any such referendum would surely deliver a united Ireland.

( that, of course, overlooks the fact that chaos and violence would ensue with a return to internecine warfare in short order)

BTW - i think that would be an incredibly stupid step!

 

[berneyarms]

You seem to forget that there are two governments who are signatories to the Good Friday Agreement.

No Irish government is going to go back on that and the principle of consent by the population of Northern Ireland.

Apart from the constant refrain from Sinn Féin, there isn't anything close to a groundswell of opinion that would make the governments consider holding a border poll. Jeremy Corbyn isn't going to change that either.

It isn't going to happen for the foreseeable future.

The notion that a UK Prime Minister can run roughshod over an international agreement and (more importantly) the right of the people in NI to determine their own future is nonsensical.

 

[northwichcat]

Labour MP Stella Creasy proposed an amendment to allow Northern Irish women to get NHS funded abortions in England and the weak Conservative government didn't dare to oppose it, so it passed.

Meanwhile Corbyn has reportedly sacked five members of the shadow cabinet with a sixth resigning after they voted in favour of an amendment proposed by Chuka Umunna to keep the UK in the single market. Corbyn instructed MPs to abstain from the vote but 49 voted in favour of Umunna's amendment. (Source ITV News)

 

[northwichcat]

Has now been confirmed the sacked shadow ministers are: Andy Slaughter, Ruth Cadbury, Daniel Zeichner, Gareth Thomas and Catherine West.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...b0d8a37c3d65c7#block-59552effe4b0d8a37c3d65c7

 

[Busaholic]

Labour MP Stella Creasy proposed an amendment to allow Northern Irish women to get NHS funded abortions in England and the weak Conservative government didn't dare to oppose it, so it passed.

Meanwhile Corbyn has reportedly sacked five members of the shadow cabinet with a sixth resigning after they voted in favour of an amendment proposed by Chuka Umunna to keep the UK in the single market. Corbyn instructed MPs to abstain from the vote but 49 voted in favour of Umunna's amendment. (Source ITV News)

Pedant corner - Stella Creasy withdrew her amendment because the Cons/DUP govt., realising they would lose, introduced their own proposals to allocate an extra £1 million to allow females from N.I. to travel to the rest of the UK for a free legal abortion.

 

[St Rollox]

His stated view is for a united Ireland. As PM he merely has to start down that road and momentum will do the rest. Any such referendum would surely deliver a united Ireland.

( that, of course, overlooks the fact that chaos and violence would ensue with a return to internecine warfare in short order)

BTW - i think that would be an incredibly stupid step!

I'd have thought being stuck in a Northern Ireland with a non unionist First Minister and a non unionist voting majority would be just as bad for Ultra Unionists.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Labour MP Stella Creasy proposed an amendment to allow Northern Irish women to get NHS funded abortions in England and the weak Conservative government didn't dare to oppose it, so it passed.

Pedantically, Stella Creasy withdrew her amendment because the government agreed to allow NHS England to fund abortions for NI women.

I'm not convinced we should be celebrating this as a success. It is a fudge, and a fudge that will probably set back the argument for legalising abortion in Northern Ireland. The government did this because they were scared of the DUP; this takes the pressure off the DUP stance on abortion, because hey, the women can now come to England.

No, NHS England won't pay for the time off, the ferry/air fare, and the accommodation whilst you're here. But you can go to England and do it, so why do we need to legalise it in Northern Ireland?

I think it is terrible for the cause.

 

[northwichcat]

Really free abortion is a controversial issue when people can't get life saving treatment for some conditions on the NHS. If the baby would be still born, born with severe birth defects or the woman became pregnant as the result of rape then it's not unreasonable to offer them a free abortion. However, free abortion because they changed their mind on wanting a baby when someone else has to raise £50000 for essential treatment not offered on the NHS?

 

[AlterEgo]

Really free abortion is a controversial issue when people can't get life saving treatment for some conditions on the NHS. If the baby would be still born, born with severe birth defects or the woman became pregnant as the result of rape then it's not unreasonable to offer them a free abortion. However, free abortion because they changed their mind on wanting a baby when someone else has to raise £50000 for essential treatment not offered on the NHS?

Sources indicate we spend about £100m a year on abortion, so we should get the cost back in two days once we leave the EU. No need to worry.

 

[Tetchytyke]

people can't get life saving treatment for some conditions on the NHS.

Such as which treatments?

free abortion because they changed their mind on wanting a baby

"I'm desperate for a baby...oh ****...I don't want it now...best have an abortion."

I'm sure it happens all the time.

In reality it happens because the condom breaks, or because they were sick whilst they were on the contraceptive pill, or because the pill didn't work, or because they were careless.

As for allowing abortion "only in the case of rape", this- more than anything else- shows that people who argue against abortion are only interested in punishing women who don't want to be pregnant.

If you think abortion is murder of a baby, then it is still murder even if the baby's father is a rapist. If, on the other hand, you have no issue with aborting a foetus conceived by rape, then you shouldn't have an issue with aborting a foetus for any other reason why a woman doesn't want to carry it.

 

[northwichcat]

Such as which treatments?

Proton beam therapy, for one. Available in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia and Sweden currently but not in the UK. Although, will be made available at one London hospital and one Manchester hospital next year. That will be too late for some patients and there are many other treatments available in other countries which there aren't yet plans to introduce in the UK.

"I'm desperate for a baby...oh ****...I don't want it now...best have an abortion."

I'm sure it happens all the time.

In reality it happens because the condom breaks, or because they were sick whilst they were on the contraceptive pill, or because the pill didn't work, or because they were careless.

One common theme there - the woman choose to have sexual relations in each case. Contraception methods like condoms and the pill do warn that they are only 98/99% effective and that no method is 100% effective.

If you think abortion is murder of a baby, then it is still murder even if the baby's father is a rapist.

That's not my argument. I'm neither arguing abortion is murder not that abortions should only be made available in some cases - I'm questioning whether FREE abortions should be available to all women. My argument is it would be unreasonable to charge a woman for an abortion when they have got pregnant through being raped but not necessarily unfair to charge them if they got pregnant through choosing to have sexual relations and are likely to be on their way to producing a perfectly healthy baby. However, are you saying it's reasonable for them to get free abortions in any scenario and an unlimited number of free abortions, while people have to travel abroad and pay for their own cancer treatment because they need a method of treatment not available on the NHS?

 

[DarloRich]

oh dear this wont end well...........................

 

[SWTCommuter]

Proton beam therapy, for one. Available in the US, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Russia and Sweden currently but not in the UK...

...while people have to travel abroad and pay for their own cancer treatment because they need a method of treatment not available on the NHS?

The NHS does pay for patients to be treated with Proton Beam Therapy abroad:

Currently the UK has one proton beam therapy facility, at Clatterbridge Cancer Centre. But it’s a ‘low-energy’ machine, only suitable for treating people with rare eye cancers.

Treating more complex cancers requires a ‘high-energy’ beam, so the NHS covers the cost of sending patients for treatment overseas (in the US or Switzerland) when there’s clear evidence that proton beam therapy is the best option. Since 2009, more than 370 patients – mostly children – have received treatment abroad.

http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2015/07/16/proton-beam-therapy-where-are-we-now/

 

[GatwickDepress]

One common theme there - the woman choose to have sexual relations in each case. Contraception methods like condoms and the pill do warn that they are only 98/99% effective and that no method is 100% effective.

That's not my argument. I'm neither arguing abortion is murder not that abortions should only be made available in some cases - I'm questioning whether FREE abortions should be available to all women. My argument is it would be unreasonable to charge a woman for an abortion when they have got pregnant through being raped but not necessarily unfair to charge them if they got pregnant through choosing to have sexual relations and are likely to be on their way to producing a perfectly healthy baby. However, are you saying it's reasonable for them to get free abortions in any scenario and an unlimited number of free abortions, while people have to travel abroad and pay for their own cancer treatment because they need a method of treatment not available on the NHS?

Ah yes, blame women for wanting to have sex without producing a child. Brilliant.

You also make it sound like girls are constantly getting abortions when that's simply not true. Getting an abortion is a thankfully rare occurrence and one that is very harrowing and quite frankly scary. Adding a charge would be a tax on the poor, a gateway to treatment, and potentially place young girls in a much more vulnerable position. I'm sure many doctors would conveniently "ignore" that charge if need be.

There's homeopathy available on the NHS, why don't we start by closing that down instead of a service that helps women, couples, and families take control of their lives?

The crux of the matter is that if we cut abortion, the money saved would be negligible. I doubt it'd even go back into the NHS. This is a purely political gesture after all.

oh dear this wont end well...........................

Agreed.

 

[northwichcat]

The NHS does pay for patients to be treated with Proton Beam Therapy abroad:

http://scienceblog.cancerresearchuk.org/2015/07/16/proton-beam-therapy-where-are-we-now/

Proton Beam Therapy wasn't a good example because the NHS have now accepted it's worth funding but Arctic Troll obviously doesn't watch the news because people having to go abroad at their own expense to get essential health treatment regularly comes up.

 

[northwichcat]

Ah yes, blame women for wanting to have sex without producing a child. Brilliant.

Both men and women know no method of contraception is 100% effective. If they don't then better awareness is needed.

So rather than having a pro- unlimited free abortions rant, why don't you say whether you think it's fair some people have to find 5 or 6 figure sums for life saving treatment abroad? As it is you've ignored half my argument. I'm certainly not saying axe free abortions if all types of medical treatment are properly funded. I'm questioning whether the right departments are getting the right levels of funding.

 

[ainsworth74]

How much will it cost the state in benefits and additional healthcare and education costs if we were to axe free abortion and many more unwanted babies were therefore brought to term? Seems to me that £100m may turn out to be considerably cheaper than possibly a couple of decades of welfare benefits (assuming yhst its only thier parents that claim benefits for them and they never need to claim themsleves) and education and a lifetime of medical care for this person.

 

[tspaul26]

oh dear this wont end well...........................

Do you mean the exchange between jcollins and Arctic Troll or something else?

 

[northwichcat]

How much will it cost the state in benefits and additional healthcare and education costs if we were to axe free abortion and many more unwanted babies were therefore brought to term? Seems to me that £100m may turn out to be considerably cheaper than possibly a couple of decades of welfare benefits (assuming yhst its only thier parents that claim benefits for them and they never need to claim themsleves) and education and a lifetime of medical care for this person.

There's a number of variables there:
1. Would the number of abortions actually go down significantly if a charge was introduced?
2. Would the above change if the charge was variable depending on household circumstances rather than fixed?
3. If the answer to 1 is yes, is the number of abortions going down due to more women keeping babies or due to fewer women getting pregnant.
4. How much will the child pay in taxes and NI once they grow up compared to how much will they cost in welfare and education costs when they are a child?

This is precisely why no politician would come up with an idea for a proposal to axe free abortions for some just before an election. It would require a lot of thought and analysis for the politician to then be able to answer questions on their policy. OK maybe Theresa May would do should a thing and then keep repeating the same phase whenever she is asked a question in it.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

oh dear this wont end well...........................

Being one of the elderly codger brigade, whose memory is nearer than most to the old songs of yore, one of those songs gave advice to young (and not so young) ladies..."Keep your hand on your ha'penny"

I remember the Fivepenny Piece singing it at some of their concerts years ago.

 

[sk688]

I see that Michael Gove has come out in defence of university fees , while also not calling the bribe from May to the DUP , a bribe

Seeing as he likes the fees so much , it would be even better if he would pay those fees too