Government advice discussion

[DarloRich]

As posted elsewhere, those who have been fortunate and/or sensible enough to have been able to save will be in a better position. It is *very* unfortunate that this hasn’t been widely encouraged for very many years.

Assuming the banks remain in a place of liquidity - If not savings wont matter.

 

[Meerkat]

Can HMRC use the system for sick pay to fund companies to pay reduced wages, just to keep things stumbling along?

 

[Meerkat]

Assuming the banks remain in a place of liquidity - If not savings wont matter.

80k per Bank is government guaranteed

 

[bramling]

Assuming the banks remain in a place of liquidity - If not savings wont matter.

Don’t go there, or people will start withdrawing their money en masse!

Hopefully things won’t get that bad. Obviously there will be a problem if people or businesses start defaulting on loans or payments.

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes it is. Unfortunately this is a risk when an economy places a heavy reliance on services.

Well as we perhaps don't have the manufacturing sector we once had, it had to be filled with something. Lessons will need to be learnt from this crisis for sure.

I just can’t see the government having the means to bail the sector out either, when we have others like the rail industry already talking about needing support.

Neither can I, save a few punitive headline grabbing measures. As I've said elsewhere, some people are expecting the numbers to be well into 6 figures very quickly. That's lost tax revenue & more instant dependence in one fell swoop.

As posted elsewhere, those who have been fortunate and/or sensible enough to have been able to save will be in a better position. It is *very* unfortunate that this hasn’t been widely encouraged for very many years.

It hasn't, although it has not been helped by the housing market & massively low interest rates. This is just another log in the economic firestorm that Covid-19 is adding too.

Can HMRC use the system for sick pay to fund companies to pay reduced wages, just to keep things stumbling along?

Potentially, but things won't stumble along for long. Remember in sectors like hospitality that are going to get slammed, there are supply chains that are dependant on them. Sick pay will just about get the staff through for a bit, but supplier viability won't last long and many will fold meaning SSP turns into UC and more numbers on the unemployment stats.

 

[Bantamzen]

Meanwhile, taken from the BBC live feed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683

The Prime Minister's father has indicated he would ignore his son's advice to tackle the spread of coronavirus and still go to the pub.

Boris Johnson yesterday urged everyone to "avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other such social venues", saying it was particularly important for people over 70.

But Stanley Johnson, 79, said: "Of course I'll go to a pub if I need to go to a pub." Speaking on ITV's This Morning, he said landlords "don't want people to be not in the pub at all".

 

[Bletchleyite]

Meanwhile, taken from the BBC live feed:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51921683

What a complete idiot. Doing it is one thing, gobbing off to the media is entirely another.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Assuming the banks remain in a place of liquidity - If not savings wont matter.

As someone else said, don't start that. We do NOT need a run on the banks. The FSCS will pay out if needs be, just ensure, as always, you have no more than £80K in each bank.

 

[Skymonster]

We might HAVE to throw people under the economic bus to survive as a country. It is that blunt. It isnt nice but it is, potentially, reality. We have to be honest about that.

No! Very regrettably we might have to throw persons in very high-risk categories under the bus to preserve the future prosperity of the country. THAT is the harsh reality.

 

[yorksrob]

The only way I can see around it is for the Government to start printing money to keep small business' hibernation costs ticking over for the duration, so that they can be re-started once the crisis abates. These might be building upkeep, rents etc. Perhaps some sort of redeployment scheme of staff affected.

I don't know whether the overall costs would be more or less than the 2008 bailout, but it seems to have been accepted that the negatives of QE were outweighed by the bigger negatives of not doing it.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I'd be in favour of both quantitative easing and borrowing. We can pay it back through taxation later if we need to.

 

[bramling]

No! Very regrettably we might have to throw persons in very high-risk categories under the bus to preserve the future prosperity of the country. THAT is the harsh reality.

Ignoring the ethics, I just don’t think that would work. Once images of old people dying in hospital waiting rooms start circulating I think we’d be into mass hysteria very quickly, which would have the same negative effect on the economy, quite possibly worse.

 

[bramling]

The only way I can see around it is for the Government to start printing money to keep small business' hibernation costs ticking over for the duration, so that they can be re-started once the crisis abates. These might be building upkeep, rents etc. Perhaps some sort of redeployment scheme of staff affected.

I don't know whether the overall costs would be more or less than the 2008 bailout, but it seems to have been accepted that the negatives of QE were outweighed by the bigger negatives of not doing it.

A lot will depend on how long this lasts for. Unlike 2008 things could spring back pretty quickly, but that depends on how certain industries can weather the storm in the meantime.

I’m not sure the bickering over insurance payouts is helpful either - there’s no way the insurance industry (in other words all of us via our premiums) can prop up an entire sector for several months.

(Naturally those with the foresight to have the right terms in their policy might strike lucky, having presumably paid more for it over the years?)

 

[yorksrob]

A lot will depend on how long this lasts for. Unlike 2008 things could spring back pretty quickly, but that depends on how certain industries can weather the storm in the meantime.

I’m not sure the bickering over insurance payouts is helpful either - there’s no way the insurance industry (in other words all of us via our premiums) can prop up an entire sector for several months.

(Naturally those with the foresight to have the right terms in their policy might strike lucky, having presumably paid more for it over the years?)

Indeed. This is a "Force Majeure" which will require Government intervention.

 

[AM9]

As someone else said, don't start that. We do NOT need a run on the banks. The FSCS will pay out if needs be, just ensure, as always, you have no more than £80K in each bank.

Just for the record, the limit is now £85k.

 

[Bostwick]

Absolutely.

The NHS was never going to be set up to cope with the worst-case scenarios. A difficult decision has had to be taken, and the trade-off costs will have to be borne and managed.

I do however get a perception, perhaps wrongly, that there has been a slowness to start getting seriously prepared. Has everyone been taken back by Italy’s situation, including the experts?

We have had 407 new cases today reported by the Dept of Health and Social Care, deaths to be reported later today, and we are nearly into the 2,000 cases club. We are now where Italy was on the 2nd/3rd March in both new daily cases and overall cases.

 

[Bantamzen]

We have had 407 new cases today reported by the Dept of Health and Social Care, deaths to be reported later today, and we are nearly into the 2,000 cases club. We are now where Italy was on the 2nd/3rd March in both new daily cases and overall cases.

I think it is important at this stage to remind folk that we are now only recording cases where patients have sought medical care, so mortality rates will not be representative of all cases, so will appear higher than they actually are. Also it is far too early to compare country by country, as each one has different demographics, different methodologies etc.

 

[Howardh]

Just been round Horwich and everything appears normal, everything open including the bars and cafes.

It's as if no-one is taking any notice of Our Dear Leader. Wonder why??

 

[Bostwick]

We might HAVE to throw people under the economic bus to survive as a country. It is that blunt. It isnt nice but it is, potentially, reality. We have to be honest about that.

That is Catch 22, if we don't cut back on the economy then we don't survive the global warming and if we do cut back we don't survive as a country.

 

[Ivor]

What a complete idiot. Doing it is one thing, gobbing off to the media is entirely another.

You’re spot on!

Good luck to the ‘privileged’ but I wish on occasion they’d take a look at the ‘real world’

 

[Ianno87]

Yes it is. Unfortunately this is a risk when an economy places a heavy reliance on services.

Although "services" is a very broad brush term. It arguably includes people like me who can just use the laptop on the sofa and carry on. No use having a manufacturing job if you can't reach the factory to do it.

That is of course, I appreciate, cold comfort to those in the hospitality industry side of "services" who currently have no idea where or when their next pay will be coming.

 

[DarloRich]

Just for the record, the limit is now £85k.

great. My £8.50 will be safe.

I don't expect a run on the banks but it is something that COULD happen if this gets out of hand. I agree the government need to support business and individuals through this crisis but rightly imo they need to focus on preservation of life NOW and deal with the cash crisis later. Even if later is a fortnight it isnt the biggest fire burning today.

 

[Howardh]

Just for the record, the limit is now £85k.

And just to confuse things, if you have two accounts with two different banks/building societies, you only get the one £85k limit if they are under the same umbrella. Worth googling "banks who owns who" just to be sure.

 

[Bostwick]

Just been round Horwich and everything appears normal, everything open including the bars and cafes.

It's as if no-one is taking any notice of Our Dear Leader. Wonder why??

That will be until we hit a certain magic number, for the Italians that was when 10,000 cases and 500 dead hit the news and custom for bars and restaurants fell off a cliff overnight.

 

[Mogster]

I think it is important at this stage to remind folk that we are now only recording cases where patients have sought medical care, so mortality rates will not be representative of all cases, so will appear higher than they actually are. Also it is far too early to compare country by country, as each one has different demographics, different methodologies etc.

Different criteria for reporting probably also.

 

[mmh]

A mixed story here in Conwy this afternoon. All the shops are open, all but one of the pubs are open. Noticeably fewer tourists wandering around than there should be. The pub I'm in is slightly quieter than I'd have expected. Maybe about a quarter down. The people noticeable by their absence are tourists, and a handful of elderly regulars who are always here of an afternoon.

 

[mmh]

You’re spot on!

Good luck to the ‘privileged’ but I wish on occasion they’d take a look at the ‘real world’

To be fair, Stanley Johnson is only the modern day equivalent of Terry Major-Ball.

 

[yorksrob]

great. My £8.50 will be safe.

I don't expect a run on the banks but it is something that COULD happen if this gets out of hand. I agree the government need to support business and individuals through this crisis but rightly imo they need to focus on preservation of life NOW and deal with the cash crisis later. Even if later is a fortnight it isnt the biggest fire burning today.

If you provide businesses and employees with the support now, they're more likely to be in a position to step back and pause operations to support social distancing.

 

[Bostwick]

I think it is important at this stage to remind folk that we are now only recording cases where patients have sought medical care, so mortality rates will not be representative of all cases, so will appear higher than they actually are. Also it is far too early to compare country by country, as each one has different demographics, different methodologies etc.

That is true as many people with the Coronavirus don't ever know that they have had it or have minor symptoms and don't get tested and it takes on average 2 weeks to become ill with Coronavirus. Also death figures are always lagging as people don't die on the first day, it can take weeks for someone to die. If one looks at the cases reported in Italy and those in the UK on the graphs to date they have shown the same curve of acceleration, not to mention many other countries showing the same exponential curve unless they have been ahead of the curve with their proactive actions. The only difference between the UK and Italy is Italy left the starting blocks first, not to mention Italy has been far more proactive, they closed their schools and universities 3 weeks ago, when they hit 100 cases, and with the national lockdown they are possibly showing signs that they are capping cases or it could take another week to see a clearer picture.

 

[Meerkat]

Wandered into town around 3pm. Normally the shopping centre food court is a bustling area, but there were only a handful of tables being used out of well over a hundred. Very eerily quiet.