Great Northern and Thameslink May 18 service changes

[thewaistcoat]

The problem is that in the morning peak Oakleigh Park gets exactly the same service as Hadley Wood even though Oakleigh Park has 2.65 times the footfall.

If Hadley Wood can justify 4 tph, shouldn't Oakleigh Park get 10 tph?

It's all bonkers. WGC will have no extra capacity Mon-Fri (less seating) and no plans to increase in the next decade as far as I can tell. They are building next to the station blatantly for commuters into London (https://thewheatquarter.co.uk/). Not sure what trains they're supposed to get as the existing ones are already full. I already ignore any train into WGC from the north as over-packed so use a slow train that makes my commute longer but bearable. It's only going to get worse.

 

[bramling]

It's all bonkers. WGC will have no extra capacity Mon-Fri (less seating) and no plans to increase in the next decade as far as I can tell. They are building next to the station blatantly for commuters into London (https://thewheatquarter.co.uk/). Not sure what trains they're supposed to get as the existing ones are already full. I already ignore any train into WGC from the north as over-packed so use a slow train that makes my commute longer but bearable. It's only going to get worse.

We keep hearing about how vital the small amount of extra (standing) capacity the 700 interior provides, however this of course overlooks one of the big fails of the Thameslink Programme, namely the failure to provide for any lengthening on both the Welwyn and Hertford routes.

Likewise most of the Baldock/Royston 365 services happen to run into the main station at Kings Cross, yet due to short platforms at Baldock, Knebworth and Welwyn North they remain limited to 8 cars. SDO wouldn’t immediately help here due to the reversing berth at Baldock.

 

[mongoose]

It's all bonkers. WGC will have no extra capacity Mon-Fri (less seating) and no plans to increase in the next decade as far as I can tell. They are building next to the station blatantly for commuters into London (https://thewheatquarter.co.uk/). Not sure what trains they're supposed to get as the existing ones are already full. I already ignore any train into WGC from the north as over-packed so use a slow train that makes my commute longer but bearable. It's only going to get worse.

The fast trains from WGC are full but the semi fasts and slows are not and passengers will increasingly use these services, which will mean less chance of getting a seat, compared to the current services, for those boarding south of Potters Bar.

 

[AM9]

The problem is that in the morning peak Oakleigh Park gets exactly the same service as Hadley Wood even though Oakleigh Park has 2.65 times the footfall.

If Hadley Wood can justify 4 tph, shouldn't Oakleigh Park get 10 tph?

Maybe the price of housing in Hadley Wood means that people living there are taken more notice of.

 

[Ian Howard]

The fast trains from WGC are full but the semi fasts and slows are not and passengers will increasingly use these services, which will mean less chance of getting a seat, compared to the current services, for those boarding south of Potters Bar.

In addition to the development next to the station there are three other schemes nearby (Xerox building conversion being the biggest) and 5 others in the works. Approx 2,000 units will be built within 5 minutes walk, all of which are flats which will suit young commuters. I suspect we will see 1-2,000 additional commuters in peak hours from WGC. The 7.55 is already standing only, and will be useless at Hatfield and Potters Bar.

The semi-fasts are quickly filling up and I suspect will be entirely full at Potters Bar within 5 years.

Is there any hope we will see 12 cars at WGC in future?

 

[jon0844]

In addition to the development next to the station there are three other schemes nearby (Xerox building conversion being the biggest) and 5 others in the works. Approx 2,000 units will be built within 5 minutes walk, all of which are flats which will suit young commuters. I suspect we will see 1-2,000 additional commuters in peak hours from WGC. The 7.55 is already standing only, and will be useless at Hatfield and Potters Bar.

The semi-fasts are quickly filling up and I suspect will be entirely full at Potters Bar within 5 years.

Is there any hope we will see 12 cars at WGC in future?

If the new timetable is correct, the first southbound train at WGC in the morning from Peterborough to Horsham will be a 12 car 700, so must use SDO. No other Horsham trains (or 12 car trains) stop there.

I assume the stop is to pick up or drop off staff, and it's early enough not to cause issues that having people walking up to four coaches to exit might have in the day.

 

[Downthelane]

In addition to the development next to the station there are three other schemes nearby (Xerox building conversion being the biggest) and 5 others in the works. Approx 2,000 units will be built within 5 minutes walk, all of which are flats which will suit young commuters. I suspect we will see 1-2,000 additional commuters in peak hours from WGC. The 7.55 is already standing only, and will be useless at Hatfield and Potters Bar.

The semi-fasts are quickly filling up and I suspect will be entirely full at Potters Bar within 5 years.

Is there any hope we will see 12 cars at WGC in future?

WGC isn't St Albans and hence no.

GN have been the poor relation for years and it continues even with clear evidence that WGC and Hatfield are expanding, quickly.

12 coaches for all services in peak is a must.

 

[bramling]

If the new timetable is correct, the first southbound train at WGC in the morning from Peterborough to Horsham will be a 12 car 700, so must use SDO. No other Horsham trains (or 12 car trains) stop there.

I assume the stop is to pick up or drop off staff, and it's early enough not to cause issues that having people walking up to four coaches to exit might have in the day.

Unless there's some particular early morning/late evening flow into and out of Welwyn from the north, I'd say it's pretty certain the calls are basically aimed at staff. More than likely this is staff making their way to the Welwyn sidings. Certainly at present there are services calling there at around this time, and there's guaranteed to be at least a couple of staff alighting and making their way down the sidings.

I suspect 12 cars at Welwyn GC is a no-no at present for most of the time, as a 12-car would not fit in the signalling berth, meaning the rear end would be hanging over the points. This would present a problem if, for example, a down train had to go via platform 4 if an up train was waiting to depart from platform 3. In an ideal world platforms at Potters Bar, Hatfield, Welwyn GC, Welwyn North, Knebworth and Baldock would be being extended to 12 cars - but no one really cares about the GN side of things. Welwyn and Hatfield do seem to do particularly badly.

 

[jon0844]

I guess that unless WGC can be lengthened somehow for 12 coaches, they wouldn't bother with the others. I do think one day they'll need to figure out a way as going 12 car for almost every service will be the next way to boost capacity in 10 or 20 years.

 

[Ianno87]

Maybe the price of housing in Hadley Wood means that people living there are taken more notice of.

Oakleigh Park arguably has more nearby tube alternatives for pasengers in the interim whereas Hadley Wood does not.

 

[Downthelane]

If 12 coach 700's are too big at present for these key platforms why on earth stick with a default of 8 cars?

A 10 car train would likely suffice and solve the problem at least in the short term.

I would have thought the 700 design would allow for this flexibility?

 

[jon0844]

If 12 coach 700's are too big at present for these key platforms why on earth stick with a default of 8 cars?

A 10 car train would likely suffice and solve the problem at least in the short term.

I would have thought the 700 design would allow for this flexibility?

At the factory I am sure they can make whatever they're asked to make. But what good would 10 car trains be most of the time? Two coaches short at 12 car platforms and two coaches off the platform at 8 car ones.

From WGC to London there will soon be a massive capacity boost, first from 4tph all day with 313s to newer, far more spacious 717s. While definitely a lot slower, people will need to get used to taking these over the faster services if they want a seat. Especially on a Sunday until we see additional trains running and an end to just one train per hour for most of the day.

 

[Ian Howard]

At the factory I am sure they can make whatever they're asked to make. But what good would 10 car trains be most of the time? Two coaches short at 12 car platforms and two coaches off the platform at 8 car ones.

From WGC to London there will soon be a massive capacity boost, first from 4tph all day with 313s to newer, far more spacious 717s. While definitely a lot slower, people will need to get used to taking these over the faster services if they want a seat. Especially on a Sunday until we see additional trains running and an end to just one train per hour for most of the day.

The capacity outside peak hours is essentially redundant. Outside peak, the 313s in particular are rarely full. The increased frequency is useful.

But for the high proportion of journeys on this line which are daily commuters who travel in peak, the increases in train capacity fall far short of what is required based on the population growth.

I agree that the slows will end up much busier and the 717 will make this more pleasant, but an addition 30 minutes total each day of travel time cannot be seen as a upgrade for those traveling every day.

 

[Ianno87]

If 12 coach 700's are too big at present for these key platforms why on earth stick with a default of 8 cars?

A 10 car train would likely suffice and solve the problem at least in the short term.

I would have thought the 700 design would allow for this flexibility?

Remember that the eventual cross-London destinations can't take longer than 8-car either (Maidstone East and Sevenoaks via Catford)

 

[Ianno87]

The problem is that in the morning peak Oakleigh Park gets exactly the same service as Hadley Wood even though Oakleigh Park has 2.65 times the footfall.

If Hadley Wood can justify 4 tph, shouldn't Oakleigh Park get 10 tph?

You're making a big assumption about profile of demand across the day. Hadley Wood might have good peak demand then be dead the rest of the day, whilst Oakleigh Park might have similar peak demand but does not drop off so much off-peak (pretty typical these days for a slightly more 'inner' station)

 

[387star]

Littlehampton to Bedfords appear to run fast Pancras to Luton Airport or Luton which is a nice run

 

[Downthelane]

No that will need to change as it's unfair on those in St Albans and Harpenden who surely need another fast train option?

Meanwhile on the GN....

 

[Bald Rick]

There’s at least one train that does that today; it’s northbound in the morning peak, when the key priority is to get stock back to Bedford as quickly as possible to form up services.

 

[jon0844]

...an addition 30 minutes total each day of travel time cannot be seen as a upgrade for those traveling every day.

Can't disagree, but this is where there IS extra capacity and people will sadly have to accept that or try and squeeze on to the faster services. That will be down to the individuals. We know at other stations people will cram on to a packed service than take a seat and you can't stop them!

It's quite obvious that during the week most of these 4tph services to/from Moorgate off-peak will be near empty - at least at the northern end of the route. The service is probably overkill even at the Moorgate end.

At weekends however, especially when there are events on (football, or a big event at Alexandra Palace or Finsbury Park etc) they will be more useful. But it will be the 717 introduction that really make the difference.

Creating a consistent, near turn up and go, service is probably a good thing in the long run. It may well encourage more train travel, from those who won't be used to the faster trains (or any trains!) and will value just getting to the station and never waiting more than 15 minutes.

What's the alternative in the short term? I'd love to see 12 car platforms and somehow squeezing in more trains, but that's not going to happen anytime soon. One can only hope that a lot of the commuters moving out are in positions that allow for more flexible working hours, and so we won't have 1500 more people all trying to board one or two trains each morning!

 

[philjo]

The peak 365 services that start at Baldock (some start from Royston) give Knebworth and Welwyn North a half-hourly service non-stop to Kings Cross. So presumably the majority of the passengers from those stations would now use these services instead of the ex-Cambridge stoppers that serve WGC, Hatfield and Potters Bar.
(Though the 07:38 from Royston will be full as it replaces 2 trains in the current timetable)
Baldock is more likely to get future 12-coach platform extensions as the Brighton semi-fasts also call there and it is probably feasible at Knebworth & welwyn north to allow the Baldock/royston -Kings Cross peak services in the future be 12 coaches (though would then need to use the main shed at Kings Cross instead of 9-11)

WGC probably needs a couple of extra peak hour fast trains that start at WGC that can take WGC and Hatfield passengers to Finsbury Park. I assume that the xx:02 and xx:32 from WGC are the ones intended to go to Sevenoaks in 2019 - they still look like stoppers.


I see that Central Bedfordshire are now proposing a 1500 home village just East of Biggleswade and 2000 homes between Arlesey and Fairfield which will add a lot more passengers travelling from Biggleswade, Arlesey and Letchworth in addition to new passengers from the the 3000 homes planned for Baldock.

 

[jon0844]

If the overall service improves, and with new destinations, there's very much a 'if they build it' mentality that will kick in - and we'll see even more developments along the route, which will do a great job of filling up those peak services.

Maybe in 15 or 20 years we'll all be replaced by robots and get paid to sit at home and the problem goes away. We can go back to 4 car trains!!

 

[Class 170101]

That's unlikely as we will find other things to do with our time which may well see us travelling by train.

 

[Hadders]

It's going to be interesting at Stevenage between 0700 and 0800 on weekday mornings with one less train to London than now, fewer carriages and fewer seats. And a gap of up over 30 minutes between fast services.

 

[bramling]

The peak 365 services that start at Baldock (some start from Royston) give Knebworth and Welwyn North a half-hourly service non-stop to Kings Cross. So presumably the majority of the passengers from those stations would now use these services instead of the ex-Cambridge stoppers that serve WGC, Hatfield and Potters Bar.
(Though the 07:38 from Royston will be full as it replaces 2 trains in the current timetable)
Baldock is more likely to get future 12-coach platform extensions as the Brighton semi-fasts also call there and it is probably feasible at Knebworth & welwyn north to allow the Baldock/royston -Kings Cross peak services in the future be 12 coaches (though would then need to use the main shed at Kings Cross instead of 9-11)

Many, or even most, of these services are booked to use the main station in the May timetable, so this shouldn't be a showstopper. Lengthening these services to 12 cars should be a priority, but doesn't even seem to be on the table.

I see that Central Bedfordshire are now proposing a 1500 home village just East of Biggleswade and 2000 homes between Arlesey and Fairfield which will add a lot more passengers travelling from Biggleswade, Arlesey and Letchworth in addition to new passengers from the the 3000 homes planned for Baldock.

Like the area hasn't seen enough building over the years to accommodate London overspill. There's still people of a certain generation who refer to Stevenage as "Stevenage New Town", with a rather negative inference.

 

[jon0844]

Just found out that the last train from King's Cross on a Saturday night (into Sunday) will be the 0140 to WGC (700 as in the week).

It seems Network Rail must have agreed to take their automatic possession later, allowing people to stay out as late on a Saturday as any other day of the week. For goodness knows how long they've forced trains to finish earlier.

Well, actually, the last train Sunday back will be a Peterborough service leaving 0132, but still good news overall.

 

[philwimbledon]

Can anyone give me clarity on the Wimbledon loop peak frequency post the may changes. The station by station list of changes indicates additional peak services to Blackfriars operated by Southern - but I can't see them in the timetables anywhere...!

 

[jon0844]

It's not clear what the train lengths will be on Sunday GN trains, but it seems that with no additional services (still 1tph for most of the day, bar some in the morning southbound and some in the evening northbound) people are going to have to get used to using the Moorgate trains and adjusting their travel accordingly (i.e. going to/from Finsbury Park).

For people at Welwyn North and Knebworth, it's just one train an hour (bar the extras mentioned above) so no real improvement unless all the trains will be 8 car. They better be!

 

[387star]

Will there be London bridge tl terminators come may ?

 

[swt_passenger]

Will there be London bridge tl terminators come may ?

Realtime trains suggests not. There are some regular “TL” services, but to/from Epsom so probably given the wrong operator in error.

 

[bramling]

It's not clear what the train lengths will be on Sunday GN trains, but it seems that with no additional services (still 1tph for most of the day, bar some in the morning southbound and some in the evening northbound) people are going to have to get used to using the Moorgate trains and adjusting their travel accordingly (i.e. going to/from Finsbury Park).

For people at Welwyn North and Knebworth, it's just one train an hour (bar the extras mentioned above) so no real improvement unless all the trains will be 8 car. They better be!

I still can't fathom the Sunday GN service. It's certainly not going to be solid all-day 8-cars on the stopping services - there are certainly going to be single 387s at times, but I can't tell how far towards the busier times this reaches towards. One wonders if there will be any single 365s running around too. This is all speculation as I haven't seen any Sunday diagrams! Saturday does look much better though, all 8 cars, albeit being Undesiros not to everyone's taste.

As we've concluded before, with the new timetable keeping the Cambridge-KX stopping service on the slow lines, under normal circumstances it will never be worth waiting for this service simply to get to London quicker.