How does Waterloo only get 60 million passengers yet each SWR train I get is packed like sardines?

[Fazaar1889]

Waterloo was at almost 100 million in 2019, now it's at approx 60 mil. Yet all the trains I've taken are packed. I rarely get a seat. Were the trains packed even tighter before?

 

[deltic]

Waterloo was at almost 100 million in 2019, now it's at approx 60 mil. Yet all the trains I've taken are packed. I rarely get a seat. Were the trains packed even tighter before?

Do you travel in on a Monday or a Friday?

 

[Craig1122]

The timetable and lots of train formations have been cut since covid. But also a lot of trains are not nearly as packed as they were before.

 

[43096]

Waterloo was at almost 100 million in 2019, now it's at approx 60 mil. Yet all the trains I've taken are packed. I rarely get a seat. Were the trains packed even tighter before?

Because there's fewer trains running.

 

[RailExplorer]

In 2019 my SWR route had 10 car trains every 15 minutes off peak. In 2024 it is 8 car trains every 30 minutes.

 

[Russel]

Waterloo was at almost 100 million in 2019, now it's at approx 60 mil. Yet all the trains I've taken are packed. I rarely get a seat. Were the trains packed even tighter before?

Passenger numbers being down 40 million does highlight the damage Covid and it's related restrictions have done to the railways and why the powers that be are so keen on saving money.

 

[Snow1964]

There is lot of info in ORR data, but the train km and vehicle km operated compared to 2019 is down about a third. Fewer trains operated, and shorter trains.

But reversing the covid effect doesn't seem to be on the short term agenda. If the passengers came back, SWR isn't providing sufficient comfortable air conditioned trains with sufficient seats. There has been no public evidence of any plan on how they would ramp up the service if commuters did come back.

Short term, all seems to be about cutting costs, rather than improving the offer to encourage users back and grow revenue which would allow cut in subsidy.

 

[Adrian1980uk]

There is lot of info in ORR data, but the train km and vehicle km operated compared to 2019 is down about a third. Fewer trains operated, and shorter trains.

But reversing the covid effect doesn't seem to be on the short term agenda. If the passengers came back, SWR isn't providing sufficient comfortable air conditioned trains with sufficient seats. There has been no public evidence of any plan on how they would ramp up the service if commuters did come back.

Short term, all seems to be about cutting costs, rather than improving the offer to encourage users back and grow revenue which would allow cut in subsidy.

That seems to be an issue across the country, it would be an interesting research study to work out what percentage of capacity before passengers get put off. Currently on the Greater Anglia routes, peaks are comfortably full but not many more passengers before it gets uncomfortable and passengers are put off. From these forums GWR and cross-country are already at that point and maybe SWR if what's being implied here.

 

[Goldfish62]

Before Covid and early retirement I used to commute four days a week into Waterloo during the peaks. What I experience now in far more occasional peak journeys (always Tues or Wed) into Waterloo is in stark contrast - I'd say at least 50% down on passenger numbers. If Covid had never happened we'd probably be looking at over 100m passengers per year now.

Furthermore the peak service on my line has been cut from 10 car trains every 15 min to mostly 8 car trains every 30 minutes and while some are packed, they're no more so than pre-Covid.

 

[Craig1122]

Furthermore the peak service on my line has been cut from 10 car trains every 15 min to mostly 8 car trains every 30 minutes and while some are packed, they're no more so than pre-Covid.

And this is probably part of the reason why numbers haven't recovered. The Hounslow loop was increased from every 30 to every 15 minutes in the 2004 timetable change. Within a couple of years passenger numbers at stations along the line had at least doubled and in some places had tripled. We know that increasing the service increases passenger numbers but seeking cost savings above all else means options to increase revenue don't get a look in.

 

[Deepgreen]

Fewer and shorter trains, which in many cases is a proportionally greater cut than passenger numbers. It's very easy to cut services when passenger numbers drop, but very much harder to restore them AND win back passengers. Uncertainty about WFH also makes it harder to plan.

 

[yorksrob]

With so many commuter services at halved provision and fewer carriages its amazing that revenue has held up so well !

 

[Snow1964]

Fewer and shorter trains, which in many cases is a proportionally greater cut than passenger numbers. It's very easy to cut services when passenger numbers drop, but very much harder to restore them AND win back passengers. Uncertainty about WFH also makes it harder to plan.

From table 3.2 in this link, South Western Railway are only using 80% of their access rights.

So in theory could run 20% more trains without applying for more track access.

Or Regulator could give some to another operator (including freight or open access) if they continue to not utilise them.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/regulatory-access-dashboard-factsheet-december-2023-timetable-change_2.pdf

 

[Adrian1980uk]

From table 3.2 in this link, South Western Railway are only using 80% of their access rights.

So in theory could run 20% more trains without applying for more track access.

Or Regulator could give some to another operator (including freight or open access) if they continue to not utilise them.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-05/regulatory-access-dashboard-factsheet-december-2023-timetable-change_2.pdf

Should be a rule if you don't use them for 2 timetable periods then you lose them and have to re apply

 

[3141]

There is lot of info in ORR data, but the train km and vehicle km operated compared to 2019 is down about a third. Fewer trains operated, and shorter trains.

But reversing the covid effect doesn't seem to be on the short term agenda. If the passengers came back, SWR isn't providing sufficient comfortable air conditioned trains with sufficient seats. There has been no public evidence of any plan on how they would ramp up the service if commuters did come back.

Short term, all seems to be about cutting costs, rather than improving the offer to encourage users back and grow revenue which would allow cut in subsidy.

In theory at least, the introduction of all the class 701s and the reorganised class 458s would go a long way towards solving that problem.

It seems to me unlikely that a majority of commuters will come back. Many people are now used to working from home and generally like it. Many employers seem happy with the situation and it enables them to save on premises costs. There'd have to be a great increase in the total workforce before the previous numbers of commuters were seen again.

 

[Fazaar1889]

The main problems seems to be that SWR has cut services. Which lines are at full service and which aren't? Is the Portsmouth direct line running at full service? It's the line I usually use.

 

[JonathanH]

Is the Portsmouth direct line running at full service?

Depends how you define full service. There shouldn't be a presumption that the service which operated in 2020 is the "full service" now.

Fewer services run now than in 2020, but the full 2024 service is running.

The full off-peak service in 2024 on the Portsmouth Direct is two trains an hour from Waterloo to Portsmouth Harbour, one faster than the other, and a third service from Waterloo to Haslemere.

In 2020, demand justified two faster services to Portsmouth Harbour, a slower service to Portsmouth & Southsea, and a Haslemere terminator.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Before Covid and early retirement I used to commute four days a week into Waterloo during the peaks. What I experience now in far more occasional peak journeys (always Tues or Wed) into Waterloo is in stark contrast - I'd say at least 50% down on passenger numbers. If Covid had never happened we'd probably be looking at over 100m passengers per year now.

Furthermore the peak service on my line has been cut from 10 car trains every 15 min to mostly 8 car trains every 30 minutes and while some are packed, they're no more so than pre-Covid.

If Covid hadn't happened, Tuesday to Thursday trains would've still been as busy as ever but Mondays and Fridays would've been a lot quieter overall. Covid didn't start WFH and the "Tango Whisky Alpha Tango" trend, it merely accelerated it. Hard, admittedly.

In theory at least, the introduction of all the class 701s and the reorganised class 458s would go a long way towards solving that problem.

It seems to me unlikely that a majority of commuters will come back. Many people are now used to working from home and generally like it. Many employers seem happy with the situation and it enables them to save on premises costs. There'd have to be a great increase in the total workforce before the previous numbers of commuters were seen again.

Commuters have returned, but predominantly midweek.

 

[Parham Wood]

Not so many people commuting as working at home (full or part time) has become the norm for many. Train lengths cut. Although out of scope for this trains in the 70s/80s were mainly 12 or 8 coaches peak time and packed.

 

[philosopher]

Not so many people commuting as working at home (full or part time) has become the norm for many. Train lengths cut. Although out of scope for this trains in the 70s/80s were mainly 12 or 8 coaches peak time and packed.

I might be wrong here, but I do think Waterloo serves areas that have a higher proportion who workers who WFH regularly than other London termini. So passenger numbers at Waterloo will struggle to recover compared to other London termini.

 

[Craig1122]

Depends how you define full service. There shouldn't be a presumption that the service which operated in 2020 is the "full service" now.

Fewer services run now than in 2020, but the full 2024 service is running.

The full off-peak service in 2024 on the Portsmouth Direct is two trains an hour from Waterloo to Portsmouth Harbour, one faster than the other, and a third service from Waterloo to Haslemere.

In 2020, demand justified two faster services to Portsmouth Harbour, a slower service to Portsmouth & Southsea, and a Haslemere terminator.

Going back to 1972 the off peak service was 2 fast and 1 all stations. This was a reversal of the situation at electrification with 1 fast & 2 stoppers. I'm pretty certain this is the first time in 50 years that the off peak fast service has been just one an hour, this is despite overall UK passenger numbers and the population of the towns served being much higher then in the seventies. So objectively it's possible that the current service is the worst since the line was steam operated. These kind of cuts will not be helping to bring passengers back.

 

[MikeWh]

It's noticeable that the approach taken by TfL for EL/LO and LU/DLR which was not to cut services by as much and restore earlier means that their ridership is a lot closer to pre pandemic levels.

 

[JonathanH]

It's noticeable that the approach taken by TfL for EL/LO and LU/DLR which was not to cut services by as much and restore earlier means that their ridership is a lot closer to pre pandemic levels.

That is a different market though.

The problem SWR has is that its passengers travel further and consequently don't want to spend time or money travelling into work in an office if they don't have to. In many cases, they will have established a better work life balance as a result. People travelling shorter distances may not have the choice as they may not work in roles which are conducive to working from home, and don't have to invest so much time and money in travelling.

 

[paul1609]

I might be wrong here, but I do think Waterloo serves areas that have a higher proportion who workers who WFH regularly than other London termini. So passenger numbers at Waterloo will struggle to recover compared to other London termini.

In my experience its actually all of south of London once you start approaching a journeytime of an hour from London. In Kent on the SEML the reduction is noticeable once you get to Tonbridge or Tumbridge Wells beyond there useage drops off a cliff. Its about Haslemere on the Portsmouth Direct Line. Both HS1 and the Brighton Mainline have held up well. The coastway services are in the strange position where the internal services along the coast are at capacity certainly from Eastbourne westwards but what would have once been a full and standing 12 car London peak service is now a 8 car ghost train.

 

[John-H]

In my experience its actually all of south of London once you start approaching a journeytime of an hour from London. In Kent on the SEML the reduction is noticeable once you get to Tonbridge or Tumbridge Wells beyond there useage drops off a cliff. Its about Haslemere on the Portsmouth Direct Line. Both HS1 and the Brighton Mainline have held up well. The coastway services are in the strange position where the internal services along the coast are at capacity certainly from Eastbourne westwards but what would have once been a full and standing 12 car London peak service is now a 8 car ghost train.

If the services run every 15 minutes, passengers will simply show up and travel when they want to. With half hour services, they will have to plan their activities around the train or face an awkward wait. An hourly service is less convenient still.

I have seen local bus services where 15 minutes is the boundary between the market for convenient travel and the considerably smaller market for serious commuters. Perhaps this is a factor in the declining rail traffic.

 

[norbitonflyer]

The service at some of the inner London stations (Mortlake, North Sheen, St Margarets) has been cut to half hourly by truncating the Houslow Loop services at Twickenham. Unsurprisingly, those who can do so go to Richmond or Kew Gardens instead, but Mortlake is not so well placed, particularly as Hammersmith Bridge is still closed to road traffic (including buses) after five years of inaction.

 

[Gerald Fiennes]

There does seem to a significant drop in off-peak use on some routes, SWR being one of the most prominent. What was supporting passenger revenue growth in the two decades pre Covid was to a considerable extent that growth not that in the peaks (grew at trend of just 1.5% per annum over the 15 years prior to 2018/19). Offpeak timetable reductions, eg. to Pompey, will be playing a part but it's noticeable that one of the TOCs that's done best post Covid (LNER) has a quite active discounting strategy aka yield management through Advance fares. AWC does this is a bit, but not as much. TSGN/SWR: hardly at all. This is a big reason for the slow return on offpeak travel. It means TOCs have to accept lower yields than before, on the expectation of getting more revenue.

 

[Goldfish62]

There does seem to a significant drop in off-peak use on some routes, SWR being one of the most prominent. What was supporting passenger revenue growth in the two decades pre Covid was to a considerable extent that growth not that in the peaks (grew at trend of just 1.5% per annum over the 15 years prior to 2018/19). Offpeak timetable reductions, eg. to Pompey, will be playing a part but it's noticeable that one of the TOCs that's done best post Covid (LNER) has a quite active discounting strategy aka yield management through Advance fares. AWC does this is a bit, but not as much. TSGN/SWR: hardly at all. This is a big reason for the slow return on offpeak travel. It means TOCs have to accept lower yields than before, on the expectation of getting more revenue.

For the past few years there have been engineering closures nearly every weekend somewhere on the Reading and Windsor lines, with ridiculously lengthy and unreliable bus replacement (eg 2 hours to travel the 30 miles from Bracknell to Waterloo if connections are met - they're not always). I thought it would ease off with the resignalling completion, but it's carried on unabated. I've abandoned several trips by rail, either driving, going by bus or not travelling at all at weekends as a result.

To your average passenger in the area the message must now be, "don't bother using our services at weekends".

 

[weeklycommuter]

Depends how you define full service. There shouldn't be a presumption that the service which operated in 2020 is the "full service" now.

Fewer services run now than in 2020, but the full 2024 service is running.

The full off-peak service in 2024 on the Portsmouth Direct is two trains an hour from Waterloo to Portsmouth Harbour, one faster than the other, and a third service from Waterloo to Haslemere.

In 2020, demand justified two faster services to Portsmouth Harbour, a slower service to Portsmouth & Southsea, and a Haslemere terminator.

The Monday to Saturday off peak service to and from London Waterloo on the Portsmouth routes each hour in 2019 was one train London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth Harbour via Eastleigh, two fast trains London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth Harbour via Guildford, one stopping train London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth and Southsea via Guildford and one stopping train London Waterloo to and from Haslemere. In their December 2022 timetable consultation SWR promised to bring back the four services London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth stations Monday to Saturday off peak but not restore the London Waterloo to and from Haslemere train. This has been done for the Saturday service but Monday to Friday off peak the two London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth Harbour fast trains have become one fast train and one stopping train and the stopping train London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth and Southsea via Guildford is cut short at Haslemere. SWR should run the four trains an hour London Waterloo to and from Portsmouth stations promised in their December 2022 timetable consultation Monday to Friday off peak as they do on Saturday. My guess is the real reason they do not is because of the shortage of rolling stock resulting from their failure to bring the ninety new Arterio trains into service so rolling stock is being diverted from mainline services to make up the shortfall. The four trains an hour is not a full restoration of the 2019 Monday to Saturday off peak service, the reduction is demand is covered by the dropping of the hourly London Waterloo to and from Haslemere train that ran in 2019.

https://www.southwesternrailway.com/plan-my-journey/timetables/~/media/527b019ecca54d708c71c6a9600f0bca.ashx

 

[Craig1122]

There does seem to a significant drop in off-peak use on some routes, SWR being one of the most prominent. What was supporting passenger revenue growth in the two decades pre Covid was to a considerable extent that growth not that in the peaks (grew at trend of just 1.5% per annum over the 15 years prior to 2018/19). Offpeak timetable reductions, eg. to Pompey, will be playing a part but it's noticeable that one of the TOCs that's done best post Covid (LNER) has a quite active discounting strategy aka yield management through Advance fares. AWC does this is a bit, but not as much. TSGN/SWR: hardly at all. This is a big reason for the slow return on offpeak travel. It means TOCs have to accept lower yields than before, on the expectation of getting more revenue.

Historically advance fares were only offered on the longest flows towards Exeter and Weymouth. There are now a lot more on shorter journeys like Portsmouth. I do think that the shorter the journey the less effective advance purchase will tend to be at getting extra people on board. Historically promotions in the SE have tended more towards fixed price but flexible tickets. If you live in Woking & fancy a spur of the moment trip to Portsmouth because the weather is nice then do you really want to mess around with advance tickets?

The other thing that has changed is that off peak fares pre covid were pushed up way over inflation with the creation of a complicated 3 tier structure on weekdays and new peak/off peak times on Saturdays. For example Bracknell to London is £33.70 peak, previously that halved in price off peak is but now only reduces to £24.

Single leg pricing has also pushed some prices up dramatically both within the original Oyster area and now with it being extended outside the zones. I suspect we've now reached the point where people are either choosing not to travel or for London they're choosing park & ride from places with a more frequent service and more reasonable fares.

Cuts in evening services will also have made threats visits etc in London less attractive as people are faced with potential long waits for a train home and sometimes slower services as on some routes stopping and fast services have been 'merged' later in the evening.