How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[Peter Mugridge]

In all honesty, I don't think we've ever seen the numbers drop so quickly, I'm struggling for an explanation...

Is it possible that we are closer than we think to endemic equilibrium?

I note the suggestion in another reply that a switch to lateral flow tests may be a reason, but that wouldn't explain the decline in hospital admissions starting roughly two weeks after the new infection figures started dropping, nor the total numbers in hospital flattening a week after that would it?

Those last two points following a two weeks and one week respectively would seem to suggest a genuine reduction in infections - and we're still:

a) two months before the end of the winter respiratory virus season.
b) only just at the point where vaccinations would be starting to have an effect.

It's also far too soon for the lockdown to have such a dramatic effect.

This needs closer study, but it's very interesting.

 

[Yew]

Is it possible that we are closer than we think to endemic equilibrium?

I note the suggestion in another reply that a switch to lateral flow tests may be a reason, but that wouldn't explain the decline in hospital admissions starting roughly two weeks after the new infection figures started dropping, nor the total numbers in hospital flattening a week after that would it?

Those last two points following a two weeks and one week respectively would seem to suggest a genuine reduction in infections - and we're still:

a) two months before the end of the winter respiratory virus season.
b) only just at the point where vaccinations would be starting to have an effect.

It's also far too soon for the lockdown to have such a dramatic effect.

This needs closer study, but it's very interesting.

I don't know, it could be:

- Cases always comedown this fast, but now we're measuring them more accurately
- Endemic Equilibrium
- Some suggestions that Coronaviruses always go down in around this time of year, and 'peak' before the flu season, which is usually a little later.

I think there's certainly a case for Natural Immunity plus vaccinations having a serious effect on R; even if you're not at the threshold, the effect is still exhibited.

 

[initiation]

I saw a report a few weeks ago that the social distancing, WFH, extra cleaning etc have markedly reduced the general level of colds and flu spreading this winter.

Also slot of vulnerable people are not really mixing in in door places much if the local day centre group I help out with IT is anything to go by. Hard to catch flu without meeting others

I'll try to find the article.

Saw this the ther day. Swedish cases of influenza for the last few years.

It is in Swedish but look at the graph - even where restrictions are much less severe influenza has disappeared. A big decline around week 11/12 in 2020 which coincides with the start of Covid as well. I wonder how much is the measures and how much is covid 'displacing' influenza.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-influensa/2020-2021/influensarapport-2020-51-53.pdf

 

[hwl]

Is it possible that we are closer than we think to endemic equilibrium?

I note the suggestion in another reply that a switch to lateral flow tests may be a reason, but that wouldn't explain the decline in hospital admissions starting roughly two weeks after the new infection figures started dropping, nor the total numbers in hospital flattening a week after that would it?

Those last two points following a two weeks and one week respectively would seem to suggest a genuine reduction in infections - and we're still:

a) two months before the end of the winter respiratory virus season.
b) only just at the point where vaccinations would be starting to have an effect.

It's also far too soon for the lockdown to have such a dramatic effect.

This needs closer study, but it's very interesting.

Worth mentioning what I said 2 pages ago:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ncing-go-on-for-in-the-uk.206084/post-4963923

The current thinking of several SPI-M and NERVTAG members who have looked at the numbers in detail (so can strip out test type impact) suggests that the new strain has a higher K value than the older ones i.e. the increase in R value due to the new strain was mostly seen in more super spreader individual /events and reducing those has hence had a larger than expected effect on reducing R.
This of course has important repercussions for the order things get reopened in.

 

[yorksrob]

Worth mentioning what I said 2 pages ago:

https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...ncing-go-on-for-in-the-uk.206084/post-4963923

Without knowing what these superspreading events are, it's difficult to ascertain what would be a remotely useful strategy for reducing transmission.

Unless they're naively expecting just to stop all social contact and movement indefinately - they won't be able to.

 

[hwl]

Saw this the ther day. Swedish cases of influenza for the last few years.

It is in Swedish but look at the graph - even where restrictions are much less severe influenza has disappeared. A big decline around week 11/12 in 2020 which coincides with the start of Covid as well. I wonder how much is the measures and how much is covid 'displacing' influenza.

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-influensa/2020-2021/influensarapport-2020-51-53.pdf

The Australian flu season last summer (their winter) saw a 93% drop from the 5 year average case numbers so huge drops in flu shouldn't be surprising in Northern hemisphere this winter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2021 ==

Without knowing what these superspreading events are, it's difficult to ascertain what would be a remotely useful strategy for reducing transmission.

Unless they're naively expecting just to stop all social contact and movement indefinitely - they won't be able to.

More data needed for analysis first but it potentially suggests a slower taper to reopening.

 

[yorksrob]

The Australian flu season last summer (their winter) saw a 93% drop from the 5 year average case numbers so huge drops in flu shouldn't be surprising in Northern hemisphere this winter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jan 2021 ==


More data needed for analysis first but it potentially suggests a slower taper to reopening.

The reopening after lockdown 1 seemed quite slow and controlled.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Although it is know that viruses mutate, no-one could have predicted exactly when and where the new variant would appear, or how more infectious it was.

Granted but the probability existed that it would and the scientists have rehearsed this possibility in the public domain but the govt failed through summer to put in place contingency plans to deal with it. Even worse it stood idly by for days when cases were increasing rapidly going into autumn before acting. Go early go hard has been the mantra of the scientists and those countries practising it have managed teh crisis better. Look at Oz today acting to remove bubble with NZ because it has one case. Its not teh one its the potential for what it maybe that is the trigger but equally they say will relax it quickly if no evidence of transmission is seen.

 

[yorksrob]

Granted but the probability existed that it would and the scientists have rehearsed this possibility in the public domain but the govt failed through summer to put in place contingency plans to deal with it. Even worse it stood idly by for days when cases were increasing rapidly going into autumn before acting. Go early go hard has been the mantra of the scientists and those countries practising it have managed teh crisis better. Look at Oz today acting to remove bubble with NZ because it has one case. Its not teh one its the potential for what it maybe that is the trigger but equally they say will relax it quickly if no evidence of transmission is seen.

South Australia went early and hard, and its lockdown still lasted for months !

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

South Australia went early and hard, and its lockdown still lasted for months !

There goal was zero Covid mine isn't but by going early and hard you damp down the speed of spread and thus the hospitalisations that arise are at level that can be managed the NHS. My view remains early application of Tier 2/3 would have been sufficient but the outlier has been not having a strategy to deal with school transmission except by closing down every other setting to eke out miniscule reductions in the R rate. Clearly not educating our children is not an outcome that anyone desires but just attacking everything else to appease people that they were doing something will prove far more damaging when this generation finds there are no jobs not even lousy ones in a coffee shop.

 

[takno]

Granted but the probability existed that it would and the scientists have rehearsed this possibility in the public domain but the govt failed through summer to put in place contingency plans to deal with it. Even worse it stood idly by for days when cases were increasing rapidly going into autumn before acting. Go early go hard has been the mantra of the scientists and those countries practising it have managed teh crisis better. Look at Oz today acting to remove bubble with NZ because it has one case. Its not teh one its the potential for what it maybe that is the trigger but equally they say will relax it quickly if no evidence of transmission is seen.

Couple of corrections:

Go early go hard has been the mantra of some of the scientists, and those countries practising it have managed the crisis with no substantially different outcomes as a result

 

[yorksrob]

There goal was zero Covid mine isn't but by going early and hard you damp down the speed of spread and thus the hospitalisations that arise are at level that can be managed the NHS. My view remains early application of Tier 2/3 would have been sufficient but the outlier has been not having a strategy to deal with school transmission except by closing down every other setting to eke out miniscule reductions in the R rate. Clearly not educating our children is not an outcome that anyone desires but just attacking everything else to appease people that they were doing something will prove far more damaging when this generation finds there are no jobs not even lousy ones in a coffee shop.

Yes, I agree that the strategy of shutting everything else to attempt to cancel out transmission in sectors favoured by SAGE has been a pointless disaster.

 

[6862]

News outlets are becoming more and more cagey about what 'normal' might look like if this all ends. Take this quote from a BBC article (bold highlighting mine):

However, it is hoped widespread vaccination could ultimately allow some or all of the population to move closer to normality.

Things like this reinforce in my mind the looming reality that we will never be allowed to return to doing the things we were free to do before March 2020 (for example seeing family and friends, or going on holiday).

Covid passports: Where do I still need to use one?

Mandatory Covid passports end in Scotland, as has happened in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[yorksrob]

I don't know what international travel will look like, because you're reliant on so many other countries.

However, I suspect that people in their own countries will come to the point where everything that has been done practically will have been done and people won't be prepared to wait indefinately to get back to normal. A hell of a lot of people are giving science the opportunity to do its thing, but that's not an open-ended commitment.

 

[LAX54]

Sure, that would have an impact - but it seems unlikely that this would be enough to make it almost disappear.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2021 ==



They were already coming down before the lockdown could have had any effect.

We cannot 'control' an infectious airborne virus.

With all of us, being locked down, being 'extra' clean etc, this will no doubt end up with a load of 'new/old' illnesses being caught by many, that in the past, would have been shrugged off !

 

[HSTEd]

Well I hope noone was planning on going abroad ever again

 

[6862]

Well I hope noone was planning on going abroad ever again

It doesn't bother me as someone who never goes abroad, but I am sure many people will be disappointed when they realise that they likely won't ever go on a foreign holiday again!

 

[DB]

It doesn't bother me as someone who never goes abroad, but I am sure many people will be disappointed when they realise that they likely won't ever go on a foreign holiday again!

Come on, that is an exaggeration. No government can keep this up indefinitely - apart from anything else, the virus will reach endemic equilibrium in due course whatever happens.

 

[HSTEd]

Come on, that is an exaggeration. No government can keep this up indefinitely

Why not?

The argument that nightmare new variants are always waiting to murder granny will work for decades.

 

[DB]

Why not?

The argument that nightmare new variants are always waiting to murder granny will work for decades.

The numbers will show otherwise - cross-immunity between variants will mean that it's no worse than flu (might well be less bad, as it doesn't mutate as much).

 

[6862]

Come on, that is an exaggeration. No government can keep this up indefinitely - apart from anything else, the virus will reach endemic equilibrium in due course whatever happens.

We originally never thought they could keep it up as long as they have. They seem to be consolidating their position day by day, so unfortunately I think in the circumstances your view (and the similar views of others) is rather unrealistic.

Why not?

The argument that nightmare new variants are always waiting to murder granny will work for decades.

This is true.

 

[DB]

We originally never thought they could keep it up as long as they have. They seem to be consolidating their position day by day, so unfortunately I think in the circumstances your view (and the similar views of others) is rather unrealistic.

The biggest why not is money - using quantitative easing to fund operational expediture is risky in all circumstances, and the longer it carries on the worse the outcome is likely to be. No government can keep it up indefinitely.

 

[yorksrob]

There seem to be plenty of lockdown loonies on the BBC website, however I don't know how representative of the population they are.

 

[Yew]

Why not?

The argument that nightmare new variants are always waiting to murder granny will work for decades.

Indeed, it's not far off "We need to lock down in case there is a pandemic"

 

[brad465]

The biggest why not is money - using quantitative easing to fund operational expediture is risky in all circumstances, and the longer it carries on the worse the outcome is likely to be. No government can keep it up indefinitely.

Indeed, Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe come to mind as where such behaviour leads; even if we don't get "hyperinflation", inflation above a certain level (such as 1970s inflation) would still cause problems.

There seem to be plenty of lockdown loonies on the BBC website, however I don't know how representative of the population they are.

The nature of BBC commenters is whichever side feels a particular story favours their point of view turn ups in the biggest numbers, so some articles rate well for the pro-lockdown groups, but others may favour the anti-lockdown groups. Last week there was a mixture of articles, so no-one particular side had it all their own way on every story, but in the few weeks before it was more pro-lockdown lot, suggesting stories might slowly be starting to favour anti-lockdown groups, which, given falling infections and increasing vaccinations, makes sense. This is the same reason almost every comments section on Brexit stories now are led by anti-Brexit users, because most of them are now about its downsides.

 

[yorksrob]

Indeed, Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe come to mind as where such behaviour leads; even if we don't get "hyperinflation", inflation above a certain level (such as 1970s inflation) would still cause problems.

The nature of BBC commenters is whichever side feels a particular story favours their point of view turn ups in the biggest numbers, so some articles rate well for the pro-lockdown groups, but others may favour the anti-lockdown groups. Last week there was a mixture of articles, so no-one particular side had it all their own way on every story, but in the few weeks before it was more pro-lockdown lot, suggesting stories might slowly be starting to favour anti-lockdown groups, which, given falling infections and increasing vaccinations, makes sense. This is the same reason almost every comments section on Brexit stories now are led by anti-Brexit users, because most of them are now about its downsides.

Just got to hope that people get sick of being stuck indoors !

 

[Bantamzen]

Why not?

The argument that nightmare new variants are always waiting to murder granny will work for decades.

In that case prepare never to go to the pub, restaurant, cinema, UK holiday, 5 yards from the front of your house ever again....

 

[YorkshireBear]

People saying they will keep this up forever. They won't, because people won't let them. The level of bending/breaking rules is soooo much higher this time and that will continue.

Don't get me wrong most people aren't attending massive house parties, but many are meeting family/friends in small groups.

Work places aren't as keen for people to be home and furloughed. For example many heritage railways are keeping up with maintenance and improvements whereas lockdown 1 they weren't.

Maybe they are just trying not to over promise after the Christmas debacle. Maybe they know the vaccination rate could drop off soon as production issues affecting EU hit us.

I've followed the rules with admittedly minor bending at times, but I'm not a lockdown fanatic and as each month goes past I am less and less committed to it as I become more and more miserable. From speaking to many friends and family, that is the main feeling in the UK, not anti lockdown or lockdown fanatics which like many subjects the extremes are just simply louder. Just grinding down of resolve, and eventually that will force the governments hand, I think while we have the hope that the vaccine will end this in months, people will be on side. If that goes, I don't expect another lockdown to work.

 

[_toommm_]

Just seen this rather funny Instagram account, which claims to manufacture a badge that emits ‘Solid Chloride Dioxide’ in order to prevent viruses reaching you, and making a 1M ‘shield’ around you.

You should be able to view this if you don’t have Instagram. If not, I’ll attach screenshots below of some of their posts:

Instagram

Create an account or log in to Instagram - Share what you're into with the people who get you.

instagram.com

 

[Jamesrob637]

When did we class first lockdown (if it even was that) as having been? Second lockdown was fairly unambiguous as 05 Nov to 02 Dec but first lockdown was a bit wishy-washy.