HS2 and the next Prime Minister

[squizzler]

Speaking of Chris, I've heard he's thrown his ring into a hat and has declared his intention to stand for party leader.

I for one welcome mr grayling for PM. The Tory vision of removing the UK from the EU deserves somebody of his calibre to enact it.

 

[syorksdeano]

If the next PM decided that Grayling should be encased in concrete and used as one of the pillars for any bridge on the HS2 route they would get my vote

 

[Glenn1969]

Of course, the Commons maths say nothing controversial can happen before the next election because the Tories lead a minority government so will live in fear of any rebellion on any subject

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Of course, such considerations regarding judicial review haven't stopped Chris Grayling from bigging up Crossrail 2.

Speaking of Chris, I've heard he's thrown his ring into a hat and has declared his intention to stand for party leader. Lib Dem sources said the nomination was surprising and expressed doubt that he could gain the support of 10% of the Parliamentary Party to get on the ballot.

Chris Grayling for PM? I hope not.

 

[tbtc]

Given we know Boris' opinion on LHR Runway 3, one would assume it would get the bin if he wins.*

Johnson seems to enjoy the vanity of grand public spending programs - he managed to spend FIFTY MILLION QUID on plans for a bridge with a few plants on it (without actually getting round to building it, or even buying the pots for the plants) - the NB4L was a "bespoke" project that became significantly more expensive than common-or-garden buses - if he can find a way of making HS2 about *him* (e.g. the "Boris Bus" name) then I think he'll be happy to get the chequebook out

Perhaps it would be more sensible to analyse quite WHY so many people need to travel to/from London. With phone conferencing etc now readily available, it might seem more logical to also encourage some employers to relocate out into the provinces.

We've had emails in common office usage for around twenty five years - we've had Skype and other video conferencing for the majority of that time... has that decimated demand for rail travel over that time? We've seen the same arguments about how everyone will be able to work from home etc etc.

And if phone conferencing will remove business travel then presumably that removes a chunk of the justification for various upgrades to classic lines/ re-openings? It never gets mentioned as a reason not to open something like the Grand Central though

(same goes with demand for business flights - if HS2 means we don't need business conferences then how come thousands of people are flying round the planet etc)

 

[Jorge Da Silva]

Jeremy hunt (supporter of HS2) has got the most backing so far: 29 MP’s say they will support him. I know the contest has not begun yet but still very interesting. Personally I think he is the most likely and it is important to remember that the bookies favourite has never won a Conservative leadership election.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election

 

[CanalWalker]

London to Birmingham is a time saving of ~30 minutes.

London to Birmingham is a time saving of ~30 minutes.

If you happen to live in Euston Station and work in Birmingham New Street station that is a substantial saving on the 1h22m current fastest journey
But if, more typically you are travelling from Wimbledon to Bournville it is much less significant.

 

[Mojo]

Perhaps it would be more sensible to analyse quite WHY so many people need to travel to/from London. With phone conferencing etc now readily available, it might seem more logical to also encourage some employers to relocate out into the provinces.

Given the extra costs of doing business in London compared to elsewhere in the country, I’m sure if it was feasible for a business to be outside of London they’d have already done it, so there must be a reason why they haven’t. Similarly for individuals, in “normal” jobs (I’m thinking of jobs like Police officers and teachers rather than banking or top lawyers), the London allowances that they get paid of about £2k-£4k come nowhere near the extra costs of accommodation that people face, which is only the real extra cost of being in London, for most other essentials are either the same or cheaper in London vs elsewhere.

 

[Londerground]

HS2 is the biggest fraud ever. So called 'Climate change' believers can't even plant trees. What a s*** shower it has become. Besides c-lie-mate change being a hoax, they can't even properly implement projects to fulfil their so called 'green' aims. A spiralling budget etc. amongst the mounting problems, with growing opposition all the time.

HS2 is doomed.

With the Brexit party on an unstoppable rise, any HS2 mp is in the firing line at the next election.

Plus as other posters have said, people are leaving cities, work patterns are changing. Railway passenger numbers have been falling since 2017.

 

[option]

Given the extra costs of doing business in London compared to elsewhere in the country, I’m sure if it was feasible for a business to be outside of London they’d have already done it, so there must be a reason why they haven’t. Similarly for individuals, in “normal” jobs (I’m thinking of jobs like Police officers and teachers rather than banking or top lawyers), the London allowances that they get paid of about £2k-£4k come nowhere near the extra costs of accommodation that people face, which is only the real extra cost of being in London, for most other essentials are either the same or cheaper in London vs elsewhere.

HSBC have moved the HQ for their UK banking out of London & to Birmingham.

 

[pt_mad]

I noticed Dominic Raab in his Andrew Marr interview last Sunday, when asked about HS2, commented with words along the lines of it would need to be looked at.

What I don't understand is, when does the point of no return come? We have been told HS2 is in law. Contractors are poised and land purchased. When is too late too late? Curzon Street has been flattened by the looks of it and a channel 4 dispatches programme last year claimed that parts of (West?) Euston property were being compulsory purchased. Two platforms are being or have been closed for works to take place.

Surely at some point or has to be a case of its gone too far to stop and people should stop questioning whether it will happen?

 

[The Planner]

HS2 is the biggest fraud ever. So called 'Climate change' believers can't even plant trees. What a s*** shower it has become. Besides c-lie-mate change being a hoax, they can't even properly implement projects to fulfil their so called 'green' aims. A spiralling budget etc. amongst the mounting problems, with growing opposition all the time.

HS2 is doomed.

With the Brexit party on an unstoppable rise, any HS2 mp is in the firing line at the next election.

Plus as other posters have said, people are leaving cities, work patterns are changing. Railway passenger numbers have been falling since 2017.

Stats would suggest otherwise unless that is fake news....
https://orr.gov.uk/statistics/popular-statistics/how-many-people-use-the-railway

 

[w1bbl3]

Perhaps it would be more sensible to analyse quite WHY so many people need to travel to/from London. With phone conferencing etc now readily available, it might seem more logical to also encourage some employers to relocate out into the provinces.

Sometimes its just better to sit everyone involved in the same room. I've sat through enough telephone and video conferences to know when a meeting should have been held by putting everyone together and when it could/should have been remote. One of the, if not the issue with remote conferencing is the potential for attendees to not focus and half listen whilst really doing something else.

 

[Sceptre]

HS2 is the biggest fraud ever. So called 'Climate change' believers can't even plant trees. What a s*** shower it has become. Besides c-lie-mate change being a hoax, they can't even properly implement projects to fulfil their so called 'green' aims. A spiralling budget etc. amongst the mounting problems, with growing opposition all the time.

HS2 is doomed.

With the Brexit party on an unstoppable rise, any HS2 mp is in the firing line at the next election.

UKIP did a complete about-turn on high-speed rail between the 2010 and 2015 elections in an effort to topple influential Tories along the line.

For their efforts, they won a grand total of… zero seats along the line. They weren't even close.

Plus as other posters have said, people are leaving cities, work patterns are changing. Railway passenger numbers have been falling since 2017.

I can see your attitude to passenger numbers is similar to the attitude climate change deniers have to temperature increases. I bet you think climate change finished in 1998 too?

 

[Ken H]

I am going to bide my time and see what the collapse in tory/labour votes in the euros will do to UK politics. Much politicians time is spent thinking how to screw the other lot. Now there is a new kid in town their job is far more complex. I cannot imagine what the fallout for HS2 (or the railways generally) will be. Not least because the Brexit party doesnt have a policy on anything except leaving the EU.
Peterborough by-election June 6 may bring more clarity as to the future.
Maybe.

 

[underbank]

We've had emails in common office usage for around twenty five years - we've had Skype and other video conferencing for the majority of that time... has that decimated demand for rail travel over that time? We've seen the same arguments about how everyone will be able to work from home etc etc.

Indeed, but "modern" communications have still generally been used by older workers, overseen by even older managers. There's an element of "we've always done it that way", so the best of modern communications technology hasn't really been fully embraced until far more recently. Those older people are happy to email etc., but they still want their meetings in person because they know no different. Same with remote working - the older generation of managers are sceptical and are more accustomed to monitoring their workforce by physical observation, but the younger generations will be more willing to use technology to monitor their workers' performance etc.

I see it with my business. I have clients all over the country (and some overseas) who I've never met and where all communication is done by email (they're mostly the younger generations). Then I have my older client base, mostly local, who just can't comprehend not having their usual annual meeting and the ones who have to hand their paperwork to me in person, not even trusting Royal Mail - even though they've already emailed me various spreadsheets etc. All because it's what they're used to - their comfort zone. It's a real uphill struggle to get the older generations to accept that meeting in person for every slightest thing just isn't necessary.

Now that we've had a generation or two coming through into supervisory/managerial roles who've been brought up with email and skype, I am confident that the move away from physical meetings will gather pace and use of email/skype/apps/remote working etc will really gather momentum.

It's a bit like the use of cash. There's massive inertia because of habit and distrust. In theory, the country could (and maybe should) be cashless, but there are so many people who just havn't embraced the idea yet. When there is a "critical mass" where most people use debit cards instead of cash, there'll be massive acceleration and uptake.

In both examples, it could take, say 40 years for the majority (say 50% plus) of people to go cashless and for the majority of business to be done remotely, but then maybe only a further 10 years for it to reach say 90/95% at which time, the minority will have no choice but to accept the brave new world. I think that remote working and skype meetings etc will follow that kind of roll-out. When it becomes commonplace and "the norm", the take up will rapidly accelerate.

 

[Ken H]

Indeed, but "modern" communications have still generally been used by older workers, overseen by even older managers. There's an element of "we've always done it that way", so the best of modern communications technology hasn't really been fully embraced until far more recently. Those older people are happy to email etc., but they still want their meetings in person because they know no different. Same with remote working - the older generation of managers are sceptical and are more accustomed to monitoring their workforce by physical observation, but the younger generations will be more willing to use technology to monitor their workers' performance etc.

I see it with my business. I have clients all over the country (and some overseas) who I've never met and where all communication is done by email (they're mostly the younger generations). Then I have my older client base, mostly local, who just can't comprehend not having their usual annual meeting and the ones who have to hand their paperwork to me in person, not even trusting Royal Mail - even though they've already emailed me various spreadsheets etc. All because it's what they're used to - their comfort zone. It's a real uphill struggle to get the older generations to accept that meeting in person for every slightest thing just isn't necessary.

Now that we've had a generation or two coming through into supervisory/managerial roles who've been brought up with email and skype, I am confident that the move away from physical meetings will gather pace and use of email/skype/apps/remote working etc will really gather momentum.

It's a bit like the use of cash. There's massive inertia because of habit and distrust. In theory, the country could (and maybe should) be cashless, but there are so many people who just havn't embraced the idea yet. When there is a "critical mass" where most people use debit cards instead of cash, there'll be massive acceleration and uptake.

In both examples, it could take, say 40 years for the majority (say 50% plus) of people to go cashless and for the majority of business to be done remotely, but then maybe only a further 10 years for it to reach say 90/95% at which time, the minority will have no choice but to accept the brave new world. I think that remote working and skype meetings etc will follow that kind of roll-out. When it becomes commonplace and "the norm", the take up will rapidly accelerate.

I am nearly 63. I use skype for works meetings. because I work from home many miles from the office. And also because meetings often include people who work in other European countries. We use text type skype, and also voice, and also use the facility to see the presenters screen. We use it for formal meetings with many people and also for informal 1 to 1 meetings.
Our office is staffed by oldies. Indeed my manager is concerned at his ageing workforce and how to replace people nearing retirement with legacy skills. He has staff over the state pension age!
So its not an age thing.

I am tending to use cash more. I dont like the idea of all my spending being trackable.

 

[Robertj21a]

I am going to bide my time and see what the collapse in tory/labour votes in the euros will do to UK politics. Much politicians time is spent thinking how to screw the other lot. Now there is a new kid in town their job is far more complex. I cannot imagine what the fallout for HS2 (or the railways generally) will be. Not least because the Brexit party doesnt have a policy on anything except leaving the EU.
Peterborough by-election June 6 may bring more clarity as to the future.
Maybe.

Farage is reported to have said today that, if we don't get out of the EU by 31st October, the Brexit party will draw up a full manifesto for a General Election - and abandoning HS2 will be on it.

 

[Class 170101]

I am tending to use cash more. I dont like the idea of all my spending being trackable.

They can track notes too - probably not as easily.

 

[MarkyT]

Farage is reported to have said today that, if we don't get out of the EU by 31st October, the Brexit party will draw up a full manifesto for a General Election - and abandoning HS2 will be on it.

Not unexpected from an offshoot of the fossil fuel funded climate change denying, neo-liberal, public transport and passenger railway hating think tank and pressure group cabal known as the Atlas network. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_Network

 

[Glenn1969]

Farage topped the vote in 2014 then got one seat at the General Election. He attracts a protest vote and has zero chance of being PM. So HS2 is safe as far as that threat is concerned

 

[The Ham]

Indeed, but "modern" communications have still generally been used by older workers, overseen by even older managers. There's an element of "we've always done it that way", so the best of modern communications technology hasn't really been fully embraced until far more recently. Those older people are happy to email etc., but they still want their meetings in person because they know no different. Same with remote working - the older generation of managers are sceptical and are more accustomed to monitoring their workforce by physical observation, but the younger generations will be more willing to use technology to monitor their workers' performance etc.

I see it with my business. I have clients all over the country (and some overseas) who I've never met and where all communication is done by email (they're mostly the younger generations). Then I have my older client base, mostly local, who just can't comprehend not having their usual annual meeting and the ones who have to hand their paperwork to me in person, not even trusting Royal Mail - even though they've already emailed me various spreadsheets etc. All because it's what they're used to - their comfort zone. It's a real uphill struggle to get the older generations to accept that meeting in person for every slightest thing just isn't necessary.

Now that we've had a generation or two coming through into supervisory/managerial roles who've been brought up with email and skype, I am confident that the move away from physical meetings will gather pace and use of email/skype/apps/remote working etc will really gather momentum.

It's a bit like the use of cash. There's massive inertia because of habit and distrust. In theory, the country could (and maybe should) be cashless, but there are so many people who just havn't embraced the idea yet. When there is a "critical mass" where most people use debit cards instead of cash, there'll be massive acceleration and uptake.

In both examples, it could take, say 40 years for the majority (say 50% plus) of people to go cashless and for the majority of business to be done remotely, but then maybe only a further 10 years for it to reach say 90/95% at which time, the minority will have no choice but to accept the brave new world. I think that remote working and skype meetings etc will follow that kind of roll-out. When it becomes commonplace and "the norm", the take up will rapidly accelerate.

The problem is that younger people with families are less likely to be able to have space for a home office, especially if they have young children who are around during the day.

Likewise there are jobs which need specialist equipment (i.e. science labs) or linked to the construction industry (i.e. architects/engineers) where site visits are required.

Yes the need for travel will fall (and had been for some time) however that has mainly been impacting on the number of miles driven whilst the numbers of journeys made by train have continued to rise:
http://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/browsereports/15

Why is this, probably because of you don't need a car (or a second car in a household) for getting to and from work the cost of ownership can be quite high (add up how much you spend on insurance, VED, servicing, MOT, breakdown cover, etc. before you drive a single mile and it can be quite enlightening, even before you include purchase/lease costs). As such for the infrequent trips that people make (visiting friends and family) it becomes better to use the train than own a car for a couple of thousand miles a year. Add in that it's easy to get most things you need delivered, rather than having to go and get them, and you can see why some are starting to ditch their cars.

However in doing so they will be using rail more than they did before. It's probably why rail usage has gone up as more and more people work flexible hours/work from home.

Broadband speeds have reached an average of about 55mb/s, in 2009 it was about 4.5mb/s.

 

[Hadders]

Indeed, but "modern" communications have still generally been used by older workers, overseen by even older managers. There's an element of "we've always done it that way", so the best of modern communications technology hasn't really been fully embraced until far more recently. Those older people are happy to email etc., but they still want their meetings in person because they know no different. Same with remote working - the older generation of managers are sceptical and are more accustomed to monitoring their workforce by physical observation, but the younger generations will be more willing to use technology to monitor their workers' performance etc.

I see it with my business. I have clients all over the country (and some overseas) who I've never met and where all communication is done by email (they're mostly the younger generations). Then I have my older client base, mostly local, who just can't comprehend not having their usual annual meeting and the ones who have to hand their paperwork to me in person, not even trusting Royal Mail - even though they've already emailed me various spreadsheets etc. All because it's what they're used to - their comfort zone. It's a real uphill struggle to get the older generations to accept that meeting in person for every slightest thing just isn't necessary.

Now that we've had a generation or two coming through into supervisory/managerial roles who've been brought up with email and skype, I am confident that the move away from physical meetings will gather pace and use of email/skype/apps/remote working etc will really gather momentum.

It's a bit like the use of cash. There's massive inertia because of habit and distrust. In theory, the country could (and maybe should) be cashless, but there are so many people who just havn't embraced the idea yet. When there is a "critical mass" where most people use debit cards instead of cash, there'll be massive acceleration and uptake.

In both examples, it could take, say 40 years for the majority (say 50% plus) of people to go cashless and for the majority of business to be done remotely, but then maybe only a further 10 years for it to reach say 90/95% at which time, the minority will have no choice but to accept the brave new world. I think that remote working and skype meetings etc will follow that kind of roll-out. When it becomes commonplace and "the norm", the take up will rapidly accelerate.

You can't do everything remotely. Sometimes you just need to get everyone in the same room. Body language, relationships, even just having a coffee with someone is often key.

A couple of other points:

London is a 'world city' and doesn't compete with Birmingham, Manchester etc. It competes with Paris, New York, Tokyo etc.
Top talent from across the UK and the world will always be attracted to work in London. With the best will in the world top talent won't be attracted int he same way to Birmingham, Manchester etc.

 

[Captain Bigwig]

Speaking of Chris, I've heard he's thrown his ring into a hat and has declared his intention to stand for party leader. Lib Dem sources said the nomination was surprising and expressed doubt that he could gain the support of 10% of the Parliamentary Party to get on the ballot.

I see what you did there...

Back on topic, what would actually need to be done to cancel HS2 if an anti-HS2 candidate won the Tory leadership? My (limited, amateur) understanding is that Phase One has received Royal Assent, but that Notice to Proceed has not yet been given. Could the Cabinet/ Prime Minister/ SoS/ DfT simply defer giving the Notice to Proceed indefinitely? Or would they need a Commons vote to overturn the Phase One bill?

 

[Ken H]

I see what you did there...

Back on topic, what would actually need to be done to cancel HS2 if an anti-HS2 candidate won the Tory leadership? My (limited, amateur) understanding is that Phase One has received Royal Assent, but that Notice to Proceed has not yet been given. Could the Cabinet/ Prime Minister/ SoS/ DfT simply defer giving the Notice to Proceed indefinitely? Or would they need a Commons vote to overturn the Phase One bill?

Parliament can always repeal a previous act. People who talk of revoking article 50 are actually saying repeal the European Union (Withdrawal) act 2018. Whether getting a majority for such a repeal act in the commons and the lords is possible is another issue.

 

[The Ham]

London to Birmingham is a time saving of ~30 minutes.

If you happen to live in Euston Station and work in Birmingham New Street station that is a substantial saving on the 1h22m current fastest journey
But if, more typically you are travelling from Wimbledon to Bournville it is much less significant.

I would suggest that the numbers traveling between Bournville and Wimbledon are likely to be faily small, given that Bournville had about 1 million passengers a year.

However there's still likely to be some time saving for anyone who does make that trip, even though it's not as large as it could be.

However even if someone were to opt for using the via New Street service with a few extra stops enroute there would be more space for them and they may be able to our to go via Watford Junction rather than via Euston.

Either way chances are they will see some benefit.

 

[Robertj21a]

Farage topped the vote in 2014 then got one seat at the General Election. He attracts a protest vote and has zero chance of being PM. So HS2 is safe as far as that threat is concerned

If he develops an ongoing party it's quite possible that he will end up in a coalition. HS2 could be a sacrificial cow.

 

[jagardner1984]

In terms of when is it too late, as I recall the Channel 4 documentary had actual fencing being placed around actual properties, by actual people in hi vis jackets. It certainly felt pretty real.

I think the pro-rail voices need to refocus the discussion away from speed and onto capacity. I’m sure an interesting chart of percentage of theoretical peak capacity (in terms of signalling / platform length / current operated train length) in current major termini might be informative for people.

I also wonder whether something like the Principle of the Barnett Formula, which links spending in London to additional spending in Scotland, could be used to negate the “i live in Plymouth, what have HS2 ever done for me” brigade.

Unless HS2 is repeated every 10 years for the next century, the infrastructure challenges of today will only grow.

 

[Glenn1969]

UKIP was an ongoing party. They won the EU elections but only got one MP despite polling reasonably well a year later. I don't see him being PM. But I take your point

 

[6Gman]

HS2 is the biggest fraud ever. So called 'Climate change' believers can't even plant trees.

1. They managed to plant the trees.
2. We then had a severe drought last summer.
3. Replacing the trees was cheaper than watering them (and we want to keep the cost of HS2 down don't we?)
4. Given the water shortages in some areas heavy irrigation of trees was questionable ("I can't water my garden, but HS2 is using thousands of gallons on trees").

But why let facts get in the way of a rant.