Time for a curveball opinion. I'm an enthusiast, who doesn't work in the industry but like to think I look at a lot of these things through a different lens to many.
I think there has been a lot of dice throwing going on since Lothian first unveiled Lothian Country Buses (LCB.)
Across all sides (First/LCB/McGills) for all the new and old owners, new routes, changed routes, rebranded routes, cancelled routes, new brands and killed off brands, vehicle changes, livery changes and more - there has been plenty of face-palming, but amongst it all I believe there have only been two truly masterstroke moves.
The first I've mentioned before was Bright Bus Tours. Absolute, absolute genius. Possibly the only brilliant thing I've ever seen First's name on, ever. Basically look down the sofa for a few coins, use those to put something together overnight, and use that to punch your rival really hard right in the crown jewels, and have enough change left over to get a kebab on the way home afterwards. Absolute genius.
I suspect in time, LCBs changes here might be seen as the next such moment. Odd narrative, you may say, but let me elaborate on my thinking.
One, like many around the country, both operators are struggling to run full services due to driver shortages, which attracts negative attention and upsets your customer base. LCB should, I assume, be on better footing with this, turning the heat of public attention on McGills.
Two, pulling what are in popular opinion on here unprofitable routes from your books, make you are more profitable business. This is a good thing to any business.
Three, where an operator pulls out an area, leaving only one - they have a key advantage. People will grumble a little bit, then move on. But the surviving rival is now "stuck" with the area. If they try and pull out they will get a lot more negative attention, the usual Facebook pitchfork marches, sound bites from local councillors etc - so in doing this they've saddled their rival with the areas they don't want. Burdening your rival this way also hinders their capacity to further attack you. Bonus points.
Four, LCB, if they have eyes and ears at least, know they don't compete on tickets, and have never addressed that. However where that is now an advantage to them is they aren't worrying about losing customers that use multiple services because of a ticket offer, so getting rid of the routes that they are is unlikely to affect passenger numbers on the ones they are keeping.
Five, as we all know McGills have a LOT of problems to sort within its new purchase, and even I'm a little surprised at how little visible progress they've made. Come on guys, some brand stickers wouldn't have been hard. LCB doing this now is super smart. Cutting the PVR, along with sticking in some newer fleet (by the look of it) should let them really aggressively roll out their new identity whilst McGills is still getting round to taking the First stickers off things.
In short, in a short space of time you've got a well presented, lean, well staffed and profitable network whilst your rival is struggling with all those aspects.
I think it's really, really smart and it's kicks the ball firmly into McGills court - "your move guys" - but as I said earlier, I think they've got their hands full and don't think they'll be able to respond for some time - letting LCB dig in.
It's that, or I'm totally, totally wrong and this is simply part one of a two-part complete retreat by Lothian!