Much rumors from various people about the desiro fleet having guards offices removed, the 444s finally losing the buffet and 450s having some kind of first class move, possibly similar in configuration as the 458s ie each end or perhaps just one end like a 444. The last one is the mostly wibbly of the rumours I have heard.
Plus the power points at all seats. Probably usb over 3pin.
The removal of the buffets makes sense, it would provide something like 12 to 16 seats (3 or 4 rows of four seats (24 to 32 seats on a 10 coach train).
Removing the guard offices would add something 4 seats, so less clear cut (8 or 12 per 10 or 12 coach trains).
I'm not sure that changing first class in the 450's would bring much benefit, during the rush hour the first class seats can be fairly well used and so a reduction could cause problems. However I also don't think that it would add many standard class seats even if there was a change. In terms of passenger use it being at the end rather than the middle would be more of an annoyance as the 450's appear to be more likely to turn to either way around than the 444's.
I'll be controversial! First/MTR say they will offer 30% more seats into Waterloo in the peaks than today; by December 2020 they will offer 52,000 extra seats each day across the morning and evening peaks.
That is a lot of capacity. Now there isn't really capacity to add more trains, and a lot of trains are at maximum length. Some of this capacity will come from the delivery of a 10-car railway on suburban services by next December. But I think the new train fleet in service by 2020 will have less seats (and more standing room). Now if I recall I don't believe First Class seating counts towards seating capacity a franchise offers...
We know First Class will be gone on the Reading Line by December 2020. Why? Because the new Bombardier units are going to work the Reading services (replacing the 458/5s that will be back to Reading by December 2018) and they are Standard Class only. My hunch is that First/MTR won't even reinstate it on the 458/5 units, so it will be gone on the Windsor side within fifteen months.
We know that 18 442 units are being refurbished for the Portsmouth fast services. InterCity units, looking like new inside, and addressng the hatred of 3+2 seating on that line (for fast services anyway). They will have First Class.
We know that the 45 444 units will be operating the services to Weymouth (suspected cut to one an hour due to new Portsmouth-Weymouth train), Poole (if second Weymouth gets cut back to there as pre-2007), Southampton (if current semi-fast Poole get cuts back to there) and possibly Portsmouth via Eastleigh (which is effectively a semi-fast Mainline service). The 444s have First Class.
So here is my controversial bit - 127 450 units lose their 24 First Class seats, plus the Guards Office - the centre part of that coach goes from 4 Standard Class seats to having 40 Standard Class seats - net increase of 36. Over 127 units that is a net increase of 4,572 Standard Class seats. Oh but wait, we have 28 former High Capacity 450s that seat 18 fewer Standard Class passengers than the remaining units. Add those missing seats in - further net gain of 504 seats. So just reconfiguring the 450 fleet could delivery 5,076 extra seats.
Controversial bit two - remove the buffet and Guards office from the 444 fleet would add 12 seats per unit. With 45 units that is a net gain of 540 seats. So we are up to 5,616 extra seats gained.
The 442 fleet will add a huge chunk of extra seats. We don't know how First/MTR will configure them but based on the current layout they seat 318 Standard Class passengers. So with 18 units that is a net gain of 5,724 seats.
The internal staff site First/MTR have put up has an answer to a question from someone saying that the diesel fleet will see seating capacity increase 5% - suggests a refurb and possible EMT style high density layout. A 3-car 159 has 172 Standard Class seats (ignoring tip-ups). A 5% increase would add 8 seats - so the MS and DMS could go from 72 to 76 seats by reducing the number of seats around tables from 10 bays to two! Controversial but more seats. With 30 3-car units that is another 240 seats.
Now I know not all units are in service, and I've not included the 158s, but even the above delivers 11,580 extra seats. Roughly a third of what First/MTR have promised. I actually think the 442s will have a higher seat count than today (think FGW HST TS - 84 seats compared to 74 in 442 DTS).
So in short, my guesses are:
- First Class only on 442s, 444s and 158/159s.
- More seating on all remaining unit types - 442s, 444s, 450s and 158/159s.
- Everything that can be maximim length into Waterloo will be - 10-car on metro and Windsor services will still over a net seat increase on 455/456/458 fleet, plus more 10-car 442 or 444 services and 12-car 450 services (though not many left to strengthen).
I know lots will say rubbish to the above, and the only proof I have for removing first Class is that new suburban units will be working to Reading (and 458/5 units will be gone by Dec-20 - they were the SWT units to work to Reading from Dec-18) but First have form here. Look at what they agreed with the DfT on GWR - big reduction in HST First Class capacity, 166 First Class capacity halved and 165 made Standard Class only. Yes, First Class brings in money but saying you are adding X thousand seats sounds better. Plus they can hike First Class fares to manage capacity on the remaining services that have it.
But if the rumour about First Class moving on the 450s is true you could do move it to non-toilet end of the current coach and reduce it from 24 seats to 16 and still offer more Standard Class seats than today. Even doing that would still provide 2,790 extra Standard Class seats through smaller First Class, no Guards office and re-instated seats on former High Capacity units.
Guess more will become clear in the Autumn once First/MTR have taken over but I'm convinced more Standard Class seats and fewer First Class seats are coming on the "old" fleets.