Omicron variant and the measures implemented in response to it

[Simon11]

One in 15 primary school pupils had Covid - ONS​

And more on the latest estimates from the Office for National Statistics that more than 1.3 million people would have tested positive for Covid in the week ending 16 December (see 13:13).
The ONS says one in 15 primary school children (5.9%) in England would have tested positive for Covid 19 that week.
This continues an increase in the rate of primary school aged children testing positive in recent weeks.
The ONS says the percentage of people testing positive increased in all age groups except for secondary school aged children and those aged 70 and older, where the trend was uncertain.
Infection rates that week were:

• Age two to school Year 6: 5.9% (one in 15)
• School Year 7 to 11: 3.4% (one in 30)
• School Year 12 to age 24: 2.6% (one in 40)
• Age 25 to age 34: 2.8% (one in 35)
• Age 35 to age 49: 3.0% (one in 35)
• Age 50 to age 69: 1.1% (one in 90)
• Age 70+: 0.4% (one in 280)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59764750

All this worry about cases being huge and yet analysis like this shows the reality, where young children are spreading it and thankfully facing little harm to Covid. Would be tempting to remove children under 15 from covid cases to see what the underlining covid rates really are!

I still stand by a comment made a few weeks ago that they should have shut schools for the last week of term and all these new restrictions would not even need to be considered. Anywho, children plays, Christmas craft sessions and pantomines are far more important,

 

[jumble]

Northern Ireland has removed the "severe distress" exemption from wearing a face covering, and the onus is now on the person to prove medical exemption. Businesses are also legally required to enforce the requirement.

Statement on Executive decisions: Measures to limit the spread of Omicron – 22 December 2021

The Executive has today agreed a package of measures to limit the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant.

www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk

Have they said exactly how one proves medical exemption?
What are the authorities going to do if someone says that have an appointment with the GP the day after tomorrow to discuss ?
I wonder if this will be quietly dropped on the 7th January
Lets hope the enforcement is like the enforcement in London
Ie TFL do nothing and the BTP use the 4Es


BTP will continue with the ‘4Es’ approach of engage, explain, encourage and, as a last resort, enforce any coronavirus legal requirements.

Rather amusingly the BTP website is out of date and says that BTP have no involvement in enforcing face coverings

https://www.btp.police.uk/police-forces/british-transport-police/areas/campaigns/covid-19/

 

[adc82140]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59764750

All this worry about cases being huge and yet analysis like this shows the reality, where young children are spreading it and thankfully facing little harm to Covid. Would be tempting to remove children under 15 from covid cases to see what the underlining covid rates really are!

I still stand by a comment made a few weeks ago that they should have shut schools for the last week of term and all these new restrictions would not even need to be considered. Anywho, children plays, Christmas craft sessions and pantomines are far more important,

The development of children is hugely important. The Xmas pantos etc are an integral part of their upbringing. Schools should not shut under any circumstances. You say yourself that children face little harm from this virus. I fully respect any adult's decision not to get vaccinated, I think it's the wrong decision, but that's not my business. But it's absolutely unacceptable for children to have to suffer in order to protect the unvaccinated..

 

[Simon11]

The development of children is hugely important. The Xmas pantos etc are an integral part of their upbringing. Schools should not shut under any circumstances. You say yourself that children face little harm from this virus. I fully respect any adult's decision not to get vaccinated, I think it's the wrong decision, but that's not my business. But it's absolutely unacceptable for children to have to suffer in order to protect the unvaccinated..

Totally agreed that development of children is hugely important however...

• If cases continues to rise, then there is a significant chance that children will have to isolate due to Covid and thus miss out completely on their learning for at least a week. At least 7% of children were absence from school each week in December.

• If cases also continue to rise and hospitals get overwhelmed, then there is also a chance that some teaching in January will be taught from home and school are already preparing for this.

When you look at the trade-offs, plus consideration for the impact on the rest of the UK, it would surely be worth sacrificing one week of 'Christmas' learning to ensure a stable start to the Spring term?

 

[HST274]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59764750

All this worry about cases being huge and yet analysis like this shows the reality, where young children are spreading it and thankfully facing little harm to Covid. Would be tempting to remove children under 15 from covid cases to see what the underlining covid rates really are!

I still stand by a comment made a few weeks ago that they should have shut schools for the last week of term and all these new restrictions would not even need to be considered. Anywho, children plays, Christmas craft sessions and pantomines are far more important,

And their education. If you think year 11/10 students who have had two years disrupted were participating in pantomimes then I can assure you that you are wrong.

 

[43066]

Totally agreed that development of children is hugely important however...

• If cases continues to rise, then there is a significant chance that children will have to isolate due to Covid and thus miss out completely on their learning for at least a week. At least 7% of children were absence from school each week in December.

• If cases also continue to rise and hospitals get overwhelmed, then there is also a chance that some teaching in January will be taught from home and school are already preparing for this.

When you look at the trade-offs, plus consideration for the impact on the rest of the UK, it would surely be worth sacrificing one week of 'Christmas' learning to ensure a stable start to the Spring term?

Cases are going to continue to rise whatever we do. I’m not sure why people still don’t seem to understand this.
And no it isn’t “worth it” to sacrifice Christmas when you’re talking about peoples’ livelihoods being ruined. I’m glad the government have finally seen sense on this.

 

[takno]

Totally agreed that development of children is hugely important however...

If cases continues to rise, then there is a significant chance that children will have to isolate due to Covid and thus miss out completely on their learning for at least a week. At least 7% of children were absence from school each week in December.

• If cases also continue to rise and hospitals get overwhelmed, then there is also a chance that some teaching in January will be taught from home and school are already preparing for this.

When you look at the trade-offs, plus consideration for the impact on the rest of the UK, it would surely be worth sacrificing one week of 'Christmas' learning to ensure a stable start to the Spring term?

As part of a package of not introducing pointless measures and not overreacting to the non-threat which Omicron represents, we should not close schools. Closing schools as a way of staving off the "need" to do the wrong thing in other areas isn't a coherent or helpful reaction.

 

[island]

Have they said exactly how one proves medical exemption?
What are the authorities going to do if someone says that have an appointment with the GP the day after tomorrow to discuss ?

My understanding is the PSNI will issue a fixed penalty notice if they are unconvinced and the alleged offender can then submit whatever evidence they have that they're exempt and the FPN will be cancelled.

I don't think any of this is sensible, or practical, to be clear.

 

[greyman42]

My understanding is the PSNI will issue a fixed penalty notice if they are unconvinced and the alleged offender can then submit whatever evidence they have that they're exempt and the FPN will be cancelled.

I don't think any of this is sensible, or practical, to be clear.

What evidence could someone possibly submit?

 

[adc82140]

My understanding is the PSNI will issue a fixed penalty notice if they are unconvinced and the alleged offender can then submit whatever evidence they have that they're exempt and the FPN will be cancelled.

I don't think any of this is sensible, or practical, to be clear.

I believe that primary legislation from Westminster would be required to change the policy of "innocent until proven guilty"

 

[brad465]

Cases are going to continue to rise whatever we do. I’m not sure why people still don’t seem to understand this.
And no it isn’t “worth it” to sacrifice Christmas when you’re talking about peoples’ livelihoods being ruined. I’m glad the government have finally seen sense on this.

Yes there are an awful lot of questions we as a society need to ask ourselves regarding our own capabilities and place in this world relative to nature, many of which seem too taboo to ask and/or we haven't really thought about.

On the Christmas point, many of those who have said that if you meet up over Christmas (certainly last year), you risk having an empty chair next Christmas, seem to forget that covid is not the only thing that can do that. There'll be many examples of families with a terminally ill relative who is unlikely to reach the next Christmas, regardless of what's going on with covid, so there is nothing to lose in meeting up. In these cases it definitely isn't worth sacrificing Christmas.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Dec 2021 ==

Now the UKHSA are saying Omicron is up to 70% less likely to require hospital care:

Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care

However, a major report showed the protection from catching Covid started to wane 10 weeks after the booster.

www.bbc.co.uk

People catching Omicron are 50% to 70% less likely to need hospital care compared with previous variants, a major analysis says.
The UK Health Security Agency says its early findings are "encouraging" but the variant could still lead to large numbers of people in hospital.
It also shows the vaccine's ability to stop you catching Omicron starts to wane 10 weeks after a booster dose.
Protection against severe disease is likely to be far more robust.
The report comes hot on the heels of data from South Africa, Denmark, England and Scotland which all pointed to reduced severity.
The latest analysis is based on all cases of Omicron and Delta in the UK since the beginning of November, including 132 people admitted to hospital with the variant. There have also been 14 deaths in people within 28 days of catching Omicron.
The report shows people catching Omicron are:

• 31% to 45% less likely to go to A&E
• 50% to 70% less likely to be admitted to hospital for treatment

However, a milder virus could still put pressure on hospitals.
The issue remains that any benefit of a milder virus could be wiped out by large numbers of people catching Omicron. The UK has set another daily Covid record with 119,789 confirmed cases.
There is also uncertainty about what will happen when Omicron reaches older age groups as most of those catching it and going into hospital so far are under the age of 40.
Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UKHSA, said: "Our latest analysis shows an encouraging early signal that people who contract the Omicron variant may be at a relatively lower risk of hospitalisation than those who contract other variants.
"Cases are currently very high in the UK, and even a relatively low proportion requiring hospitalisation could result in a significant number of people becoming seriously ill."
There are also signs that the effect of booster doses is waning.
Two doses of a vaccine were shown to offer limited protection against catching Omicron, which was then restored with a booster dose.
However, the report says this protection drops by between 15% and 25% after 10 weeks. This is still better than having no booster dose and the protection against severe disease or death is likely to be even greater.
There are no suggestions that a fourth dose will be rolled out in the UK anytime soon and there will be discussions over whether to wait for an update vaccine.
The health and social care secretary, Sajid Javid, said the early data was "promising" and government was monitoring the data "hour-by-hour".
But he warned: "Cases of the variant continue to rise at an extraordinary rate - already surpassing the record daily number in the pandemic. Hospital admissions are increasing, and we cannot risk the NHS being overwhelmed."

If hospitals still get overwhelmed due to overall numbers remaining high, that's a problem with hospital capacity and staff numbers, not with the lack of NPIs in place, as the more transmissible a virus/pathogen is, the less effective NPIs are at limiting spread, something Australia learned when Delta arrived there.

 

[danm14]

What evidence could someone possibly submit?

None, as far as I know doctors are still instructed not to issue proof of exemption.

 

[43066]

If hospitals still get overwhelmed due to overall numbers remaining high, that's a problem with hospital capacity and staff numbers, not with the lack of NPIs in place, as the more transmissible a virus/pathogen is, the less effective NPIs are at limiting spread, something Australia learned when Delta arrived there.

Indeed. As I’ve said before on here many times it’s scandalous that, two years into pandemic, so little has apparently been done to address the lack of capacity in the NHS.

 

[TPO]

Unfortunately the possibility of such a move has long existed, and in a way I'm surprised it's taken one of the devolved governments as long as this to remove it.

The way that face covering exemptions were handled was pragmatic at the beginning of the pandemic but over time, the approach of telling GPs they should refuse to provide any evidence to support someone's medical exemption did not make a lot of sense - particularly for anyone who was to travel abroad (where generally only a doctor's note would suffice).

However, removing the exemption for 'severe distress' is a very serious impingement on the daily lives of people who previously relied on this exemption. Given that face covering compliance was low in NI anyway, I wonder how much effect this will actually have. But unfortunately it's likely to give Drakeford and Sturgeon ideas...

And of course with GPs being engaged in giving boosters then it's not possible to even get to see a GP in many places now, so impossible to get evidence of a medical exemption (unless you can pay for an expensive private specialist............)

It is not enforced in Northern Ireland whatsoever, whereas in the Republic of Ireland it is enforced with an iron fist everywhere.

But from December 27th, you will be required to provide proof of medical exemption (something which is not available), the "severe distress" exemption is removed, and it will be legally required for businesses to enforce the rules - so I see that changing.

Hmmm, I checked and it's possible to do this in NI because the Equality Act 2010 doesn't apply there. The key Section 15 of the Act applies to England, Scotland and Wales only.

Have they said exactly how one proves medical exemption?
What are the authorities going to do if someone says that have an appointment with the GP the day after tomorrow to discuss ?
I wonder if this will be quietly dropped on the 7th January
Lets hope the enforcement is like the enforcement in London
Ie TFL do nothing and the BTP use the 4Es


BTP will continue with the ‘4Es’ approach of engage, explain, encourage and, as a last resort, enforce any coronavirus legal requirements.

Rather amusingly the BTP website is out of date and says that BTP have no involvement in enforcing face coverings

https://www.btp.police.uk/police-forces/british-transport-police/areas/campaigns/covid-19/

As noted above, in Great Britain the Equality Act 2010 applies so authorities would potentially be facing discrimination claims- so a level of common sense has prevailed.

My understanding is the PSNI will issue a fixed penalty notice if they are unconvinced and the alleged offender can then submit whatever evidence they have that they're exempt and the FPN will be cancelled.

I don't think any of this is sensible, or practical, to be clear.

Aye, well, there's a lot of law that is different in Northern Ireland compared to GB (GB = England, Scotland & Wales). Indeed, the railway framework is a case in point- NI never had privatised railways (they kept the vertically integrated NI version of "British Rail") and ORR has no legal jurisdiction on railways in NI (although they advise on policy).

Thankfully I think it extremely unlikely this could happen in GB because it would not be long before such a dictat was successfully challenged under S15 of the Equality Act. So, Drakeford and Sturgeon may get ideas, but going beyond pipe-dreams would quickly land them in hot water- and I don't think either of them would like the optics of losing an Equality Act case. Given the generally self-serving nature of politicians, this should keep them on the right side of sense- one hopes.

TPO

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If hospitals still get overwhelmed due to overall numbers remaining high, that's a problem with hospital capacity and staff numbers, not with the lack of NPIs in place, as the more transmissible a virus/pathogen is, the less effective NPIs are at limiting spread, something Australia learned when Delta arrived there.

NHS Englands report today is +34 on yesterday for hospitalised at 7114 with London and Midlands still pushing upwards whilst other NHS Regions are still reducing so need to be careful how its interpreted but given c1000 has been daily admissions its currently pointing to low length of stay. Bigger issue is the levels of staff isolating is reducing the usable capacity so we really need this wave to cause less admissions but next few days will be the acid test. Should get data tomorrow then looks like it will be very limited until new year.

 

[danm14]

Hmmm, I checked and it's possible to do this in NI because the Equality Act 2010 doesn't apply there. The key Section 15 of the Act applies to England, Scotland and Wales only.

Does Section 3A of the Disability Discrimination Act 1995 (the current discrimination law in Northern Ireland) not provide for the same thing?

 

[island]

What evidence could someone possibly submit?

I refer you to the last sentence of my post which 2588.

I believe that primary legislation from Westminster would be required to change the policy of "innocent until proven guilty"

It isn’t.

A whole range of offences have a “reasonable excuse” provision and a defendant claiming a reasonable excuse can be put to proof of it.

 

[brad465]

The Telegraph are reporting tomorrow that restrictions for New Year are now unlikely, citing confirmatory reports Omicron is milder:

Tomorrow's Papers Today - UK Front Pages - Latest Newspaper Headlines

All of UK's Tomorrow's Front Pages ✅ Updated Daily between 7PM - 11pm ✅ The Mail, Express, Times, Guardian and many more Proudly supporting #buyapaper

www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk

 

[BRX]

Important to note the report doesn't say it causes mild disease, rather that it appears that the proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower than with Delta.

It looks like maybe half as many, or if we are lucky, a quarter as many cases end up needing hospital treatment. That means that if overall case numbers reach 2 or 4 times those seen in previous waves, then we are still dealing with similar numbers of hospitalisations.

Reported case numbers in parts of south London have reached >4 times the previous peaks already, although there are hopeful signs that things might have peaked or levelled off in London now.

Now we have to wait and see what happens to the hospital numbers, which are now on the rise in London.

Also it looks like 10% of Omicron cases could be re-infections. Re-infections aren't counted as 'new cases' in the current numbers so they could be underestimating somewhat.

 

[yorkie]

Important to note the report doesn't say it causes mild disease, rather that it appears that the proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower than with Delta.

They are not going to word it as causing milder disease but that is what is happening.

It looks like maybe half as many, or if we are lucky, a quarter as many cases end up needing hospital treatment. That means that if overall case numbers reach 2 or 4 times those seen in previous waves, then we are still dealing with similar numbers of hospitalisations.

That would be no issue; compare that to the January 2021 peak!

 

[brad465]

Important to note the report doesn't say it causes mild disease, rather that it appears that the proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower than with Delta.

It looks like maybe half as many, or if we are lucky, a quarter as many cases end up needing hospital treatment. That means that if overall case numbers reach 2 or 4 times those seen in previous waves, then we are still dealing with similar numbers of hospitalisations.

Reported case numbers in parts of south London have reached >4 times the previous peaks already, although there are hopeful signs that things might have peaked or levelled off in London now.

Now we have to wait and see what happens to the hospital numbers, which are now on the rise in London.

Also it looks like 10% of Omicron cases could be re-infections. Re-infections aren't counted as 'new cases' in the current numbers so they could be underestimating somewhat.

That may well happen, but if hospitals do get overwhelmed it is more because hospitals are lacking in staff and physical capacity and less because nature will do what nature has been doing long before we existed. The more infectious a pathogen is, the less effective NPIs will be at controlling it. The best we can do is have resilience in our healthcare system and allow immunity to control both infection levels and severity of them, both through vaccines and infection. To think we can control every threat nature throws at us is an anthropocentric fantasy.

 

[Berliner]

Not sure of the situation in other parts of the UK, but from what I can see in Scotland, once again, all the motorway information signs are showing Covid related nonsense, in this case, urging people to get a booster.

These are meant to show important traffic updates, warn of accidents, unannounced road works or other road safety messages, not be a constant reminder of the pandemic. By constant I really mean it is literally every single one, which I've seen in Edinburgh, Fife, West Lothian, Tayside, Perthshire, Lanarkshire and South Lanarkshire in the last few days.

The last time it was like this was during the ridiculous period where we had the useless levels system in place where it warned you what level you were in and pretty much told you off for even being outside.

 

[43066]

Important to note the report doesn't say it causes mild disease, rather that it appears that the proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower than with Delta.

I’m struggling to see any meaningful distinction between “milder disease” and a disease where the “proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower”’. I’d suggest they’re one and the same thing to most people.

It was also widely reported over the last few days that a high proportion of omicron “hospitalisations” are actually occurring where people end up in hospital for other reasons and are tested for Covid following arrival - therefore the Covid will be absolutely no factor in many of these cases.

It really does feel like there is a desperation to avoid acknowledging Omicron is milder because, once again, that doesn’t fit with the agenda being pushed.

 

[Hadders]

I visited Belfast last weekend to go to a rugby match. Pretty bizarre situation:

- Vaccine passport required everywhere. Staff religious in checking on entry to bars, restaurants, museums etc which involved the passport being scanned. The NI vaccine passport includes a photo so using an English pass requires photo ID, again religiously checked
- Even at the rugby match vaccine passports were scanned on entry. No passport (and photo ID where necessary no entry). At a rugby match in Wales recently all the vaccine passport got was a cursory glance
- First time I've ever had to show a passport (actual as well as vaccine!) to get breakfast in a hotel.... I saw one couple refused service because they didn't have the correct paperwork!
- Masks being universally worn in shops and on public transport. Staff calling out those not complying.

Felt like a big step back from England

 

[nw1]

One of them is very well known and as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster was in a powerful position to get his way - Gove. Another was Hancock

Ironic that two ex-ministers who are known to have performed wrongdoing in the past, for different reasons, are the most keen on hard restrictions! "Do as I say, don't do as I do" as a certain Genesis song goes...

 

[Jonny]

I visited Belfast last weekend to go to a rugby match. Pretty bizarre situation:

- Vaccine passport required everywhere. Staff religious in checking on entry to bars, restaurants, museums etc which involved the passport being scanned. The NI vaccine passport includes a photo so using an English pass requires photo ID, again religiously checked
- Even at the rugby match vaccine passports were scanned on entry. No passport (and photo ID where necessary no entry). At a rugby match in Wales recently all the vaccine passport got was a cursory glance
- First time I've ever had to show a passport (actual as well as vaccine!) to get breakfast in a hotel.... I saw one couple refused service because they didn't have the correct paperwork!
- Masks being universally worn in shops and on public transport. Staff calling out those not complying.

Felt like a big step back from England

Are they still trying for eradication? If so it is not going to work.

 

[Class 33]

So it's been confirmed that Omicron is less severe than Delta. So why is there still these silly face mask restrictions? Remember a few weeks ago when Javid said "If Omicron is found to be no more dangerous than Delta, then these restrictions can be removed immediately" and "We won't keep these restrictions for a moment longer than necessary"?


This news article from 29th November....

Face masks will not be in place 'a day longer if Omicron is no more dangerous than Delta'

Conservative MPs are expected to vote against measures to tackle the new Covid strain

inews.co.uk

Short important snippet from that article.

Extra measures to tackle the Covid strain Omicron coming into force on Tuesday will not be in place for “a day longer than is necessary” if the variant turns out to be no more dangerous than Delta, Sajid Javid has insisted.

The Health Secretary reassured Conservative MPs threatening to rebel over the return of mandatory face masks in shops and on public transport, insisting they would be removed on 21 December if scientists find evidence that the Omicron variant causes no more severe illness or infectivity than the Delta variant or makes vaccines any less effective.

So why have these restrictions not been removed yet?! Did Javid forget what he said?

 

[philosopher]

I visited Belfast last weekend to go to a rugby match. Pretty bizarre situation:

- Vaccine passport required everywhere. Staff religious in checking on entry to bars, restaurants, museums etc which involved the passport being scanned. The NI vaccine passport includes a photo so using an English pass requires photo ID, again religiously checked
- Even at the rugby match vaccine passports were scanned on entry. No passport (and photo ID where necessary no entry). At a rugby match in Wales recently all the vaccine passport got was a cursory glance
- First time I've ever had to show a passport (actual as well as vaccine!) to get breakfast in a hotel.... I saw one couple refused service because they didn't have the correct paperwork!
- Masks being universally worn in shops and on public transport. Staff calling out those not complying.

Felt like a big step back from England

It does seem like all the devolved administrations are in a competition on who is the ‘toughest’ in dealing with Covid.

 

[Mag_seven]

It does seem like all the devolved administrations are in a competition on who is the ‘toughest’ in dealing with Covid.

And the sad thing about it is it doesn't appear to make the slightest bit of difference to infections etc and the politicians are never held to account for that fact.

 

[DustyBin]

I’m struggling to see any meaningful distinction between “milder disease” and a disease where the “proportion of cases that end up with hospitalisation is lower”’. I’d suggest they’re one and the same thing to most people.

Well yes, if you’re less likely to become seriously ill it’s milder, surely?

It was also widely reported over the last few days that a high proportion of omicron “hospitalisations” are actually occurring where people end up in hospital for other reasons and are tested for Covid following arrival - therefore the Covid will be absolutely no factor in many of these cases.

Wasn’t it two thirds? That’s a huge proportion!

It really does feel like there is a desperation to avoid acknowledging Omicron is milder because, once again, that doesn’t fit with the agenda being pushed.

For whatever reason, some people don’t want this to simply fizzle out, which is what appears to be happening.