Our total reliance on a vaccine and putting life on hold until it's rolled out

[Bantamzen]

We've been at above average in terms of deaths for the past few weeks (though not by much, certainly well within the sort of expected range). It'd take a miracle for the year to end up anywhere near normal in terms of deaths as we're at about +54000 for the year

There were over 50,000 excess deaths in England & Wales during the winter of 2017/18, so it is not without precedent.

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales, by region, sex, age group and local authority.

www.ons.gov.uk

1.Main points

• In the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales.
• The number of excess winter deaths in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since winter 1975 to 1976.
• During the winter months of 2017 to 2018, the number of daily deaths exceeded the daily five-year average for all days except 25 March.
• Excess winter mortality in 2017 to 2018 significantly increased from 2016 to 2017 in all English regions and Wales, with Wales having the highest regional index.
• Excess winter mortality continued to be highest in females and people aged 85 and over.
• Excess winter mortality doubled among males aged 0 to 64 years between 2016 to 2017 and 2017 to 2018.
• Over one-third (34.7%) of all excess winter deaths were caused by respiratory diseases.

Strangely enough few people seem to remember or comment on this.

 

[kristiang85]

We've been at above average in terms of deaths for the past few weeks (though not by much, certainly well within the sort of expected range). It'd take a miracle for the year to end up anywhere near normal in terms of deaths as we're at about +54000 for the year

It's annoying that graph doesn't go back to Jan 1st, but indeed looking at that, yes we will probably be above average this year by the end. However, since 19th June (up to 9th Oct), it is clear there are below average deaths recorded. Certainly it doesn't look like pandemic conditions. Though 2019 was quite a light year for deaths compared to average I think? I'm sure I saw a graph somewhere showing that, but I could be wrong.

Edit: And yes as @Bantamzen says above, it is very comparable to 2018.

 

[greyman42]

I'm sure you've seen the video of the 83-year old lady interviewed on the streets of Bolton, who delivers a damming assessment of the government response to COVID and ends with "...and who's going to be paying for it all in the future? They young. Not me, I'll be dead".

At the beginning of her interview she says that she is 83, could not care less about the virus and has no intention of being locked up in her house for the rest of her days. An attitude many of the elderly take despite what the media might have you think.

 

[trebor79]

At the beginning of her interview she says that she is 83, could not care less about the virus and has no intention of being locked up in her house for the rest of her days. An attitude many of the elderly take despite what the media might have you think.

Yes, and clearly she has thought about things and come to her own conclusions, unlike the next two interviewees in the same sequence who both said "Tier 3 is a great idea. Should have done it weeks ago" but were unable to elucidate why.

 

[bramling]

It's an option.

Yes it’s an option but it’s probably a guaranteed route to civil disobedience, unless done in such a way that the dates were clearly announced some time in advance so that people could plan. But then surely you’d want dates which mirror what the virus is doing, rather than arbitrary dates like half term weeks? And if they keep picking half terms then people are going to get peeved about that too.

 

[Bletchleyite]

civil disobedience

If I had £1 for the number of times I've seen this phrase posted in here since March I'd be rich.

It hasn't, however, actually happened. Nor do I think it will, because most people seem to believe measures are necessary. This Forum is an echo-chamber of people who oppose measures, by and large, and it's odd as it doesn't reflect anything else I've seen elsewhere, Forums, Facebook, in person (where allowed) or anything.

It's also particularly odd given that the railway attracts the left-wing, and the left-wing is generally in support of stricter measures.

 

[DB]

If I had £1 for the number of times I've seen this phrase posted in here since March I'd be rich.

It hasn't, however, actually happened.

No, but to what extend has compliance with the ever increasing number of rules fallen? Distancing is now effectively gone unless it's actively enforced.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, but to what extend has compliance with the ever increasing number of rules fallen? Distancing is now effectively gone unless it's actively enforced.

And that's tallied with an increase in cases.

How do people feel about that, I wonder?

If people complied strictly with lesser measures, we wouldn't need greater ones.

 

[DB]

And that's tallied with an increase in cases.

How do people feel about that, I wonder?

If people complied strictly with lesser measures, we wouldn't need greater ones

Not really - compliance was falling before the increase in cases. What id does tally with though is the annual season for respiratory illnesses!

There is actually no evidence that higher compliance with arcane and arbitrary rules would make much difference to the spread.

 

[bramling]

If I had £1 for the number of times I've seen this phrase posted in here since March I'd be rich.

It hasn't, however, actually happened. Nor do I think it will, because most people seem to believe measures are necessary. This Forum is an echo-chamber of people who oppose measures, by and large, and it's odd as it doesn't reflect anything else I've seen elsewhere, Forums, Facebook, in person (where allowed) or anything.

It's also particularly odd given that the railway attracts the left-wing, and the left-wing is generally in support of stricter measures.

People believe measures are necessary on one hand, yet breach them on the other hand. In other words people support measures until it starts to bite them.

We now have job losses gradually mounting up, furlough ending and less luxurious support schemes in place, winter fast approaching when going for a sunbathe in the park isn’t such an attractive time-filler, and the general malaise effect of people having had to put up this for months and months now (as opposed to March when we had fine weather and it all had a novelty and excitement value. Patience *is* running out.

 

[trebor79]

And that's tallied with an increase in cases.

How do people feel about that, I wonder?

If people complied strictly with lesser measures, we wouldn't need greater ones.

Distancing stopped the day masks were mandated. A lot of people seem to think the magic mask means they don't need to worry about distancing any more.
Then you get the awkward lot like me, if I'm forced to wear a bit of cloth on my face (or have various discussions about being exempt), share space with lots of other people wearing filthy cloths over their faces and play along with various other nonsense restrictions then I absolutely will not do any of the voluntary stuff any more. If Boris want's me to stay 2m away from my fellow man then he can make up another law. Nor do I pay any head to whether my journey is necessary or not, and nor will I pay any heed to not seeing my own family if Tier whatever comes into play in my area (though I recognise that final point *would* be breaking law and not guidance).

 

[Philip]

Do people think building immunity in the big cities/hard hit areas might make this winter not quite as awful as the media/government are predicting? SAGE estimates 30-90k cases a day currently. If we assume there were at least 100k cases a day in the first peak, then the hard hit areas either now or in Spring (London, Liverpool, Manchester, Yorkshire) could be looking at 20-25% immunity now or possibly a bit more. Not enough for herd immunity, but it could make it noticeably less virulent before long.

 

[trebor79]

Personally I think in a few weeks everywhere other than very rural areas is going to be trending similarly to Manchester etc. Nowhere near herd immunity yet.
Lockdown 2.0 I fear.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Distancing stopped the day masks were mandated

And that's part of the problem. Had it been retained and masks added, I'm sure cases would have reduced.

Personally I think in a few weeks everywhere other than very rural areas is going to be trending similarly to Manchester etc. Nowhere near herd immunity yet.
Lockdown 2.0 I fear.

I think everywhere will be in tier 3 soon enough. Particularly once it gets to London.

 

[bramling]

Do people think building immunity in the big cities/hard hit areas might make this winter not quite as awful as the media/government are predicting? SAGE estimates 30-90k cases a day currently. If we assume there were at least 100k cases a day in the first peak, then the hard hit areas either now or in Spring (London, Liverpool, Manchester, Yorkshire) could be looking at 20-25% immunity now or possibly a bit more. Not enough for herd immunity, but it could make it noticeably less virulent before long.

If cases are at those levels then surely it will start declining of its own accord before that much longer.

 

[Domh245]

There were over 50,000 excess deaths in England & Wales during the winter of 2017/18, so it is not without precedent.

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Excess winter mortality in England and Wales, by region, sex, age group and local authority.

www.ons.gov.uk

Strangely enough few people seem to remember or comment on this.

That's unfortunately a slightly misleading number. The 50,000 EWD means that 50,000 more died than would have if December-March had people dying at the normal (April-November) rate, not excess deaths compared to the 5 year average.

Plotting the (self-calculated) annual excess deaths each year to the 2015-19 average (the zero axis) shows the scale of it

The winter of 2017-18 was pretty nasty, with 2017 rising above average in december and 2018 starting off poorly with 15000 excess to end of March, but the scale of the excess deaths this year is clear

 

[DustyBin]

If I had £1 for the number of times I've seen this phrase posted in here since March I'd be rich.

It hasn't, however, actually happened. Nor do I think it will, because most people seem to believe measures are necessary. This Forum is an echo-chamber of people who oppose measures, by and large, and it's odd as it doesn't reflect anything else I've seen elsewhere, Forums, Facebook, in person (where allowed) or anything.

It's also particularly odd given that the railway attracts the left-wing, and the left-wing is generally in support of stricter measures.

Most people think measures are neccessary whilst they don't affect them, or even benefit them. There's a definite 'do as I say not as I do' attitude as well. In addition, a large number of people remain convinced that this virus is an indiscriminate killer and that jobs and the economy are worth sacrificing to save hundreds of thousands of lives (you can resurrect the economy, you can't resurrect the dead etc.). I honestly think people are, at some point, going to wake up. It will probably need them to lose their job and default on their mortage etc. unfortunately but I think it will happen. I think at that point they'll ask themselves "was it worth it?" and many of them will reach the same conclusion that I and several members on here have already. I'm still employed and earning a good living, but unlike the majority I'm looking ahead at what's coming as opposed to bumbling along in my own little world ignoring what's going on around me (I don't wish to sound condescending but lets be honest, people are more interested in reality TV than world affairs). We don't readily kick off in this country but there has been civil unrest over less than this so I certainly wouldn't casually disregard the possibility.

 

[Yew]

The suffering caused is too great, we have to end these damaging measures now, as the long term consequences outweigh the gains slight delay.

 

[kristiang85]

Do people think building immunity in the big cities/hard hit areas might make this winter not quite as awful as the media/government are predicting? SAGE estimates 30-90k cases a day currently. If we assume there were at least 100k cases a day in the first peak, then the hard hit areas either now or in Spring (London, Liverpool, Manchester, Yorkshire) could be looking at 20-25% immunity now or possibly a bit more. Not enough for herd immunity, but it could make it noticeably less virulent before long.

Well, if Gomes et al are correct, then 20% is probably what we need for community immunity. One of the indicators that parts are reaching that stage is that the 'wave' is only manifested in outbreaks in certain areas, and not the whole country (unlike Spring). So far that is holding up. Even Boris says "for some reason" this is much more regional than before; the government must surely soon be looking into the immunity angle if they can't think of another explanation.

London is still busy. In the summer there were the protests, and in August everywhere was packed for Eat Out To Help Out. Schools have gone back, and every THursday I'm out in Soho area and its still really busy. The tube is packed at 10pm from what I'm told (I make sure I avoid that!). So the whole 'London is much quieter' is not an explanation from my point of view.

 

[jtuk]

Was listening to the excellent podcast between Delingpole and Mike Yeadon earlier, which brought up the rather important point that, like with the flu vaccines, it will only be of limited effectiveness, and that it will be particularly useless amongst the elderly, as vaccinations are reliant on the person's immune system in the first place. As such, if the point is to protect people vulnerable to Covid, and a vaccine won't do that effectively, then other than enriching big pharma, what's the point?

 

[yorksrob]

Was listening to the excellent podcast between Delingpole and Mike Yeadon earlier, which brought up the rather important point that, like with the flu vaccines, it will only be of limited effectiveness, and that it will be particularly useless amongst the elderly, as vaccinations are reliant on the person's immune system in the first place. As such, if the point is to protect people vulnerable to Covid, and a vaccine won't do that effectively, then other than enriching big pharma, what's the point?

Well, the flu vaccine must be of some use amongst the elderly as we provide it to them.

 

[jtuk]

Well, the flu vaccine must be of some use amongst the elderly as we provide it to them.

Is it though?

 

[yorksrob]

Is it though?

So long as they get the right strain, yes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is it though?

Why on earth would an annual vaccine (which isn't zero-risk, even a well-tested one like the flu vaccine) be administered to people at considerable financial cost if the science didn't solidly confirm that there was a benefit of it?

Be careful not to stray into anti-vaxxer conspiracy theory. The nature of COVID vaccines may be unclear, but influenza vaccines are well-established and well-studied.

 

[yorkie]

A forum member sent me this:

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www.facebook.com

Maureen Eames, 83, from Barnsley, South Yorks, went viral for her no-nonsense reply to the tougher rules – describing them as being “ridiculous”.

She said she would not be “fastened in a house” after it was announced South Yorkshire will be placed into the “very high” risk category this weekend.

Maureen, a former doctor’s housekeeper, said both she and her electrical engineer husband Michael, 81, had both contracted and defeated coronavirus, but said life has to go on. The biggest thing is that all the people are afraid at the moment.

“This government has scared people from the start to get them into lockdown.

“In my lifetime I am 83 - I never thought I would feel like I was in Italy when Germany invaded. This is a free country for God's sake – or I thought it was.

“I have had the virus, I had it at the end of May. I didn’t realise until I spoke to the doctor. I had a dry cough and pains in my lungs and was very, very tired.

“But I am fit and well and I got through it. After ten days I was back to normal. I didn’t consider it incredible, I am a fit person. My husband has had it too and he has recovered.”

Well said, Maureen!

I've also seen the TV interview with her; she has a great no-nonsense approach, telling it how it is, and selflessly thinking of the plight of young people.

 

[hwl]

As such, if the point is to protect people vulnerable to Covid, and a vaccine won't do that effectively, then other than enriching big pharma, what's the point?

As a first initial step it reduces the risk of NHS overload quite effectively, then a wider vaccination strategy is needed.

 

[trebor79]

And that's part of the problem. Had it been retained and masks added, I'm sure cases would have reduced.

The problem is the government didn't consider behavioural science before introducing a measure of very questionable benefit that was bound to have an impact on how concientiously people stick to distancing, which demonstrably does work.
We can argue if, bits and maybes but the fact is, masks came in and distancing ceased very shortly afterwards. It's plain when doing the weekly shop, I don't even think about it any more and it's weeks since anybody has leapt our of my way or huffed and puffed at me instead of just reaching next to me to get what they want.

If we agree masks mandates are what led to a collapse in distancing observation, and that this has caused an increase in virus transmission, then can we agree that taken in the round, masks are ineffective?

I think everywhere will be in tier 3 soon enough. Particularly once it gets to London.

I agree. It's an inevitability unless there's a radical change of course. We're doomed.

 

[Bikeman78]

If you locked everyone up in their homes for a month, the infection rates would come back down. But when you let people out, the numbers go up. Lockdowns merely push back the problem, if you don't have a proper strategy to deal with the consequences of the virus. i.e. identifying those most at risk and focusing on them, then you enter a potentially never ending cycle of lockdown off, lockdown on. That is not the making of a successful strategy.

With each successive cycle, more people will stick two fingers up and get on with life anway. So each lockdown will be less effective.

I'm sure you've seen the video of the 83-year old lady interviewed on the streets of Bolton, who delivers a damming assessment of the government response to COVID and ends with "...and who's going to be paying for it all in the future? They young. Not me, I'll be dead".

Yes I've seen it. Absolutely hilarious.

 

[DelayRepay]

I think his numbers were from that lady who did 'science' by asking her twitter followers, and then getting other followers to review it?

Don't be ridiculous. PHE worked it all out for him using their Excel spreadsheets.

Yes, I'm incredibly fatigued at the moment. But that's what 10 hours a day of computer work and zoom meetings does to you, with only 2 physical work meetings since mid-March (used to do several a week) to break up the monotony. I didn't sleep at all on Monday night, and managed about 3 hours last night. Really I find myself in a state of ennui and wondering what it's all for. If I wasn't married with kids I'd be seriously tempted to sell up and go and live in the woods somewhere remote and do something meaningful with my life, like enjoy nature.

This is how I feel too. I am a single person, working from home, finding the days just all merge into one.

All of the things that used to break the monotony - lunch with a colleague, beer after work, weekend visits to family and friends in other parts of the country are gone. Things to look forward to like going to gigs or on holiday are gone. All we have to look forward to is a long, dark, cold winter.

I'm in a Tier 1 area but most of my family and friends are in Tier 3. So I can only see them if I drive 250 miles to sit in a park in the rain, or if I lie or break the law. Things play on my mind - will my nephew, with special educational needs, get the education he deserves? Will my best friend, made redundant, be able to pay his rent next month? Will my friend who runs a pub still have a business this time next year?

I supported the initial lockdown as a mechanism to buy us time, and because things were very much unknown. I believe we should still have some restrictions, to limit the spread. But I do not believe we can carry on like this until further notice in the vague hope of a vaccine being developed, tested, proven, manufactured and distributed.

It hasn't, however, actually happened. Nor do I think it will, because most people seem to believe measures are necessary. This Forum is an echo-chamber of people who oppose measures, by and large, and it's odd as it doesn't reflect anything else I've seen elsewhere, Forums, Facebook, in person (where allowed) or anything.

I think there are a number of very vocal people here who oppose all measures. You can see this on the face coverings thread, and it's been the case since the start.

Like I said above, I originally supported the lockdown as a way of dealing with an unknown and urgent threat. I do not support further lockdowns as I feel they are unsustainable, and we have reached the point where the 'cure' is doing more harm than the virus. We obviously cannot go back to life as it was in January, and we do need some restrictions, but we cannot spend the winter locked in our houses hiding behind the sofa waiting for the bogey man to come and get us. (Of course, people can if they want to...)

The thing is, Facebook, other forums and friends/colleagues appear to suggest views are changing. There are people I know who were very pro-lockdown, went far further than the rules required and openly criticised people who were going out for their daily walk, or shopping too often. These same people are now much more relaxed, looking for 'loopholes' or openly breaking the rules that apply to them. There seem to be a group near me who were very vocal in their suggestions that schools should close, but are now planning to take their kids trick-or-treating next week...

This issue is very polarising. In reality there is a scale from 'let it rip' to 'complete lockdown' and I suggest most people are somewhere between those two points, but those at the extremes are the most vocal.

 

[jtuk]

As a first initial step it reduces the risk of NHS overload quite effectively, then a wider vaccination strategy is needed.

You can't reduce something which for all intents and purposes is zero