Rail Fares facing a near 4% hike in January 2018

[Tetchytyke]

What caused that?

Northern getting rid of off-peak fares, mostly, I suspect.

The fare rises up here have been astronomical.

 

[deltic]

Genuine question.

Back in the day, how were BR's annual fare increases calculated.

Usually set to reach government financial targets for BR

Fare increases by year compared with RPI increases taken from Gourvish's BR 1974-97

Year Fare increase RPI
1972 12.9% 7.5%
1973 5.0% 8.2%
1974 12.5% 15.9%
1975 50.7% 24.1%
1976 12.0% 16.6%
1977 12.5% 15.9%
1978 14.5% 8.2%
1979 9.4% 13.4%
1980 42.1% 18.0%
1981 9.3% 11.9%
1982 0 8.6%
1983 7.8% 4.5%
1984 7.3% 5.0%
1985 6.6% 6.0%
1986 8.2% 3.4%
1987 5.0% 4.2%
1988 6.5% 4.9%
1989 9.4% 7.8%
1990 9.0% 9.4%
1991 9.5% 5.9%
1992 7.8% 3.8%
1993 6.0% 1.6%
1994 5.0% 2.5%

Between 1972 and 1994 rail fares went up 63% in real terms. Makes RPI+1 look positively generous!

 

[Starmill]

What caused that?

Government policy.

The Scottish model where Off-Peak tickets are restricted to RPI-1 increases has produced some very sensible results. There is money for investment, and in many areas much more investment than small-town England, there's still a premium for travel on the busiest trains (that's the actual busiest, not the most profitable) but people aren't seeing these kind of 180% increases sanctioned by government.

 

[Markdvdman]

What enrages me is the lie that the rises are to invest in new trains and infrastructure, yet I get more two car pacers than ever on REAL time commutes Merthyr - Cadoxton. It is pathetic and rips us off beyond belief! They predict a huge rise in rail usage but there will come a time when that will dramatically slow as there is only so far people can go!

 

[deltic]

What enrages me is the lie that the rises are to invest in new trains and infrastructure, yet I get more two car pacers than ever on REAL time commutes Merthyr - Cadoxton. It is pathetic and rips us off beyond belief! They predict a huge rise in rail usage but there will come a time when that will dramatically slow as there is only so far people can go!

Between July 2012 and December 2016 orders were placed for 5,670 vehicles - being delivered between 2016 and 2020. Just because you are yet to see any new rolling stock doesnt mean no-one else is

 

[Starmill]

Between July 2012 and December 2016 orders were placed for 5,670 vehicles - being delivered between 2016 and 2020. Just because you are yet to see any new rolling stock doesnt mean no-one else is

A very small proportion of that stock is with passengers. And what's more, look at how much fares have increased since 2012...

 

[Dentonian]

It is very subjective comparing fare increases - or investment - or other improvements. For instance, how many Rail fares have increased 10 fold since 1986, and how many rail services have seen headway reductions, never mind total withdrawal? Both these are the norm for non commuter Adult bus passengers in (for instance) Gtr. Manchester. You won't see Richard Westcott or Transport Focus jumping up and down about Bus Fares or service cuts, though!

 

[Starmill]

This is completely true, and it's still a scandal, but the bus industry isn't supported by nearly so much public money. What's more the bus industry broadly appears to have given up trying to attract new customers, with huge hikes in single fares and very unreliable services as you mention. There are a few notable exceptions where private companies have taken initiatives on expansion (Transdev in Northern England comes to mind) and where the public sector has successfully supported affordable, high-quality services (as with Lothian Buses).

 

[infobleep]

Between July 2012 and December 2016 orders were placed for 5,670 vehicles - being delivered between 2016 and 2020. Just because you are yet to see any new rolling stock doesnt mean no-one else is

If someone pays an increase in fares it's not unreasonable for them to think they might like some new rolling stock.

Perhaps fares rises could be link to rolling stock orders or maintenance work. So passengers on a line or more importantly service route, only pay more if that line or service see's improvements.

I doubt that would work but I float the idea all the same.

 

[Qwerty133]

If someone pays an increase in fares it's not unreasonable for them to think they might like some new rolling stock.

Perhaps fares rises could be link to rolling stock orders or maintenance work. So passengers on a line or more importantly service route, only pay more if that line or service see's improvements.

I doubt that would work but I float the idea all the same.

The problem with that is that the Whiny South-East would moan that they were facing a disproportionately large proportion of fare increases...

 

[Bayum]

There’s a few people on the first page commenting that there were fare rises of 25%+... That’s fair enough. But have the prices of tickets, particularly those commuters are going to be buying, risen or fallen? One could argue if it’s the former, that yes, fare rises of 10-25% are larger than those seen this week, but it still leads to an overall higher fare.

 

[jon0844]

Did they say anything in the 2017 manifesto? I recall in 2015 Miliband was promising a single year fare freeze while they would work on a 'better system.'

How is the fares freeze working out for TfL as it seeks to make numerous cuts (especially to buses) and passengers may soon realise that it might have been better to pay a little more?

 

[infobleep]

The problem with that is that the Whiny South-East would moan that they were facing a disproportionately large proportion of fare increases...

I personally would consider paying more if it was justified right. However I feel the system is set up so that the TOCs try to get away with as much as possible and sometimes but only sometimes the government puts in checks to stop this.

Due to the way the system is current set up, I don't feel guilty when looking for cheaper cheaper tickets to use.

I checked a couple of season ticket prices and compared to December, they were only rising by just over 1%.

 

[pemma]

General secretary Mick Cash said: "For public sector workers and many others in our communities who have had their pay and benefits capped or frozen by this government, these fare increases are another twist of the economic knife.
​

That’s rich!

It's been reported on another forum DfT asked the RMT and ASLEF to base their pay negotiations on CPI instead of RPI in exchange for regulated fares increasing by CPI instead of RPI but the unions told DfT to do one.

 

[AY1975]

I'm slightly confused by this. In recent years, as I understand it, train operators have been allowed to increase regulated fares by an average of RPI+1%, based on the previous July's RPI rate, with some fares allowed to rise by more than that amount as long as the average increase for that train operator was still RPI+1%.

However, for some reason this time it would appear that some train operators are being allowed to increase fares by well above the average of 3.4%. I know this only applies to regulated fares, but for example Wednesday's Guardian quotes an increase in the London to Cardiff off-peak fare from £96.10 to £104.50 (8.7%), and I thought regulated fares included most long-distance off-peak tickets as well as season tickets, whilst unregulated fares were Anytime and Advance tickets and shorter-distance off-peak fares.

 

[Hadders]

I believe the regulated fare between London and Cardiff is the Super Off Peak Return so GWR can do what it likes with the price of the Off Peak Return.

 

[AY1975]

I believe the regulated fare between London and Cardiff is the Super Off Peak Return so GWR can do what it likes with the price of the Off Peak Return.

If that is the case, then that explains it. But The Guardian quotes the current price of a London-Cardiff Off Peak Return (SVR) as £96.10 when according to both the GWR and the National Rail website it is £100.90. They correctly give the new price of a London-Cardiff SVR as £104.50, though. I don't know where they got the £96.10 from, although I think at least one train in mid-December had a First Class Advance at £96.10 so maybe they were confusing it with that.

 

[Hadders]

One should never trust the press when it comes to railway issues....

The Guardian can hardly be considered as authoritative

 

[Dentonian]

That’s at least the fourth such increase since September 2014.

First it was the introduction of an afternoon peak, then an increase of 50p to Off Peak fares, then another increase of 50p, and now this.

I’ve long stopped getting the train for journeys within Greater Manchester

Surely this is at least in part "catch up". During a 2014/5 Consultation on future franchising for the North, it was implicitly admitted that Rail fares for short journeys into Leeds and Manchester were undercutting commercial bus services - remember Abellio's subsidy was £706 million at the time. From my local station (Reddish North), there will indeed be a further 50p increase on a CDR, taking it up to £4.10 - still 20p cheaper than Stagecoach. The Peak fare increases from £4.70 to £4.90. However, I note Belle Vue to M'cr will still be £3.60 return in the peak, so will be 70p cheaper than Stagecoach, albeit the bus is (on paper) every 5 minutes. Don't forget also that these Rail Fares include cross-city travel on Metrolink. There are also other "Market forces" reasons; There is no longer a daytime Wigan to Manchester bus and the Bolton service(s) in common with most other bus services in GM have seen significant peak and daytime increases in journey times in recent years. Most obviously, despite the supposedly steep increases in fares; introduction of evening peak fares; pre-existing capacity problems; and worsening reliability and punctuality, patronage on the Hope Valley Lane continues to grow rapidly. Clearly, Rail commuters must like something.

 

[Paul Kelly]

If that is the case, then that explains it. But The Guardian quotes the current price of a London-Cardiff Off Peak Return as £96.10 when according to both the GWR and the National Rail website it is £100.90. They correctly give the new price of a London-Cardiff OPR as £104.50, though. I don't know where they got the £96.10 from, although I think at least one train in mid-December had a First Class Advance at £96.10 so maybe they were confusing it with that.

It increased to £96.10 last January (from the previous £93.40, a 2.9% increase). It then increased to £100.90 in the September fares increase and will go up again to £104.50 in January, so it's an 8.7% increase over the year.

GWR have already increased a lot of fares once this year in September, with the same fares going up again in January. E.g. an out-boundary Off-Peak Travelcard from Reading was £23.30 last January, increased to £24.20 in September and will increase again to £24.90 in January, making a 6.9% increase over the year.

 

[Starmill]

Surely this is at least in part "catch up".

Not really - all fares went up by 10p or more at every change which often meant a 5-10% increase per year. There wasn't a long period where fares were cut or frozen.

The reason that train fares were lower than some bus fares was because the bus services were (and still are) far more popular than the train services.

 

[richieb1971]

It baffles me that the most efficient mode of land transport costs the most, especially when some of the trains are 30+ years old.

This morning on breakfast TV they were saying it costs 50p a mile on average for a passenger, compared to 5p a mile in Latvia. They went on to say that according to pie charts the rail people state a minuscule amount of the takings are profits. Which leads me to believe there is a bottomless pit somewhere in the network. I love trains, but I don't use them much. In fact in recent memory I really feel ripped off using a train when If I used my car I would get to where I wanted to go for about 50% of the cost if I went on my own. Pack 4 or 5 people in the car and the cost goes down to like 10% of what it would cost by train. Those figures are just ridiculous.

Its just my opinion, but if the train cannot compete with the car then something needs to replace the train. Trains are old hat and overly expensive.

 

[MichaelAMW]

It's been reported on another forum DfT asked the RMT and ASLEF to base their pay negotiations on CPI instead of RPI in exchange for regulated fares increasing by CPI instead of RPI but the unions told DfT to do one.

Mmmm... it did occur to me after reading that sanctimonious statement from the RMT about passengers' own pay rises, that one option would be for the unions to limit pay rises in return for political pressure being used to prevent rises in the TOC's major costs, i.e. track access charges and rolling-stock leasing, so that the whole thing would cool down a bit. I'm not surprised to hear that the possibility of this is not being entertained. N.b. I'm not asking for a "race to the bottom" mentality but just a recognition that this is a public service and should be a bit more subject, at times, to market forces, which are mostly about the ability to pay of the passengers. Obviously, people always moan about the railways so you probably can't win whatever you do!

 

[yorksrob]

Surely this is at least in part "catch up". During a 2014/5 Consultation on future franchising for the North, it was implicitly admitted that Rail fares for short journeys into Leeds and Manchester were undercutting commercial bus services - remember Abellio's subsidy was £706 million at the time. From my local station (Reddish North), there will indeed be a further 50p increase on an OPR, taking it up to £4.10 - still 20p cheaper than Stagecoach. The Peak fare increases from £4.70 to £4.90. However, I note Belle Vue to M'cr will still be £3.60 return in the peak, so will be 70p cheaper than Stagecoach, albeit the bus is (on paper) every 5 minutes. Don't forget also that these Rail Fares include cross-city travel on Metrolink. There are also other "Market forces" reasons; There is no longer a daytime Wigan to Manchester bus and the Bolton service(s) in common with most other bus services in GM have seen significant peak and daytime increases in journey times in recent years. Most obviously, despite the supposedly steep increases in fares; introduction of evening peak fares; pre-existing capacity problems; and worsening reliability and punctuality, patronage on the Hope Valley Lane continues to grow rapidly. Clearly, Rail commuters must like something.

Ah, so we have to have preposterous fare rises to prop up the Tory party's failed bus deregulation experiment.

So that's all right then.

 

[pemma]

MN.b. I'm not asking for a "race to the bottom" mentality but just a recognition that this is a public service and should be a bit more subject, at times, to market forces, which are mostly about the ability to pay of the passengers. Obviously, people always moan about the railways so you probably can't win whatever you do!

Like I've said before I fail to see how you can be racing to the bottom unless your pay or hours are cut. If you get a pay freeze when inflation is positive and other sectors are getting pay rises then I'd call that being left behind. 'Race to the bottom' implies you're going in the wrong direction at a fast pace.

 

[MichaelAMW]

This morning on breakfast TV they were saying it costs 50p a mile on average for a passenger, compared to 5p a mile in Latvia. They went on to say that according to pie charts the rail people state a minuscule amount of the takings are profits. Which leads me to believe there is a bottomless pit somewhere in the network. I love trains, but I don't use them much. In fact in recent memory I really feel ripped off using a train when If I used my car I would get to where I wanted to go for about 50% of the cost if I went on my own. Pack 4 or 5 people in the car and the cost goes down to like 10% of what it would cost by train. Those figures are just ridiculous.

I'd like to know where all the money goes, too. It doesn't go into wages all that much either: a train for a couple of hours with a driver (£30 ph) and a guard (£20 ph) still only means maybe £200 staff costs if you add in something for all the "on costs" but the revenue would easily be into the thousands, if not more, on a busy train. I guess the answer, e.g. see DOO, is that staff costs are under the control of the TOC so an adjustment of this relatively small cost can mean a large percentage change to profit. (I may have understood all this rather badly so corrections welcome...)

 

[pemma]

I'd like to know where all the money goes, too. It doesn't go into wages all that much either: a train for a couple of hours with a driver (£30 ph) and a guard (£20 ph) still only means maybe £200 staff costs if you add in something for all the "on costs" but the revenue would easily be into the thousands, if not more, on a busy train. I guess the answer, e.g. see DOO, is that staff costs are under the control of the TOC so an adjustment of this relatively small cost can mean a large percentage change to profit. (I may have understood all this rather badly so corrections welcome...)

The majority of an operator's costs go to Network Rail and leasing companies.

Crews are paid for time when they aren't working trains in revenue earning service. For subsided TOCs e.g. Northern, the DfT specifies a payroll cap but that payroll cap doesn't include 3rd party staff e.g. Carlisle Security RPIs, as long as the contract to the 3rd party organisation brings in more revenue than it costs the TOC. For all TOCs increased profit means more money going to DfT - subsided franchises have to pay back part of their subsidy if they perform better than expected, while premium paying TOCs have to pay a higher premium if they perform better than expected. DOO also doesn't automatically mean the driver is the only person on board, if the second person spends more time on revenue duty then fare takings are likely to be higher, which is why DfT likes the idea of drivers being in charge of the door duties.

 

[Dentonian]

Ah, so we have to have preposterous fare rises to prop up the Tory party's failed bus deregulation experiment.

So that's all right then.

Er. No!
1. The competing bus services are commercial ie. the only "subsidy" is to Concessionary passengers, who in most cases here in GM would qualify for the same Concessions on Rail/Metrolink - except that most can't reach rail modes without a car! Further, those full fare paying passengers are paying (via the bus companies) VED, Fuel Tax, Tax on profits and Facility charges at bus stations.
2. If you combine the policy of rail being used to abstract from buses instead of from private transport with the crazy economics of all road based transport (outside Gtr. London), then it can ultimately only result in increased car ownership*, exponential increase in car usage and increases in socio-economic exclusion for those that cannot drive (or walk long distances regularly) for reasons of health and/or wealth.

You are right in that the Deregulation experiment has failed, but that doesn't excuse "collateral", civilian casualties.
Like the vast majority of non motorists, I had virtually no experience of local rail until relatively late in life, so I don't know how commuter fares compared with buses before the last decade or so. The presumption was that historically, rail fares were higher than bus fares on competing short runs (eg. 5 miles or less), even off-peak. On some lines into Manchester (and Leeds?) they were considerably lower by the early 2010s, and even with "preposterous" increases, off-peak fares remain lower into 2018. The table above detailing annual fare increases doesn't come anywhere near the present day, so I can't calculate how much Rail fares have increased since 1986/7, but single fares in GM (except where there is bus v bus competition) have increased exactly ten fold journeys under 2.5 miles. I believe Inflation over that period has been about 270% and car fuel costs have increased fractionally below general inflation, though insurance and other *fixed* costs might have increased much more.

 

[Kite159]

So it be the January fare increase day

Although a quick play with the TVM earlier on this morning to do my usual split threw up a price oddity (with a ticket with less restrictions being cheaper than a more restrictive ticket)

 

[NSEFAN]

Plenty of news sites talking about the fares increase. The BBC headline is:

Rail fares: Commuters 'priced out' by increases, campaigners say

I thought that's the point? Choking off demand with pricing has been going on since the days of BR. At least the article includes the usual pie chart about where the money goes.