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If strikes persist, it will have more of an impact. The Government will know this of course, but have to continue to convince everyone that it's no big deal. They don't like the fact that people are supporting the strike, and seeing it as a test of what they might be able to achieve too. If this fails, everyone fails.
No they won't. They will have very limited impact on the economy. They will have far more impact on those going on strike than the rest of us.
As you say some people support the strike because if they succeed that means there is a far better chance of them getting a bigger pay rise, however I would argue if the RMT win some public sector workers might win but most of us lose.
If nobody cares about trains or tubes (the Government saying the strikes were no big deal and didn't really inconvenience anyone), why did the Government deem it important to keep public transport running throughout Covid?
It's about as believable as the Tories losing the by-elections because Tories simply forgot to go out and vote.
No apparently people were all thinking of the wrong things when they didn’t vote Boris on Thursday, and they all love him really, and he’s going to be PM into the 2030s…
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It's not really just London anymore, it's the entire South East and significant chunks of the East of England. There is plenty of land that could be built on in these areas. We need whole new towns really.
And we don't want to leave because it's our home and where our friends and family are. I have no connection to the north at all, it might as well be France.
The problem is, of course, that whilst there might - just about - be room to build houses, the infrastructure is lacking to support them, not least transport.
There’s also some pretty horrific new housing going up in places. You can pay a few £100k for a shoebox on the edge of Stevenage with a scenic view of the A1(M) right beneath your window. Or at least you would have been able to, but a massive noise-reducing fence has been built round the whole site, which wouldn’t look out of place at HMP Frankland.
This country simply doesn’t have the space to artificially increase population size to support pensioners, at least not with the way economics (especially jobs) are biased towards London and the SE.
No apparently people were all thinking of the wrong things when they didn’t vote Boris on Thursday, and they all love him really, and he’s going to be PM into the 2030s…
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The problem is, of course, that whilst there might - just about - be room to build houses, the infrastructure is lacking to support them, not least transport.
There’s also some pretty horrific new housing going up in places. You can pay a few £100k for a shoebox on the edge of Stevenage with a scenic view of the A1(M) right beneath your window. Or at least you would have been able to, but a massive noise-reducing fence has been built round the whole site, which wouldn’t look out of place at HMP Frankland.
This country simply doesn’t have the space to artificially increase population size to support pensioners, at least not with the way economics (especially jobs) are biased towards London and the SE.
Doesn’t that just mean people switched from train-to-office to WFH rather than drive-to-office? I like that effect, it turns back the tide on that attempt to end WFH.
Effectively yes. People don't have to work from the office, but many businesses (and to be fair a reasonable amount of employees) prefer it or, at the very least, hybrid working.
What many probably did was work 5 days of week from home rather than the usual 2 or 3.
How many of those fields are (1) on a flood plain, (2) in use for food production, and/or (3) contain well-used rights of way and are thus valuable as a leisure facility? Can the local infrastructure around these fields support mass house building without creating new or exacerbating existing problems? Do the rail services at these stations have spare capacity?
I propose Sugar Loaf Garden City. Plenty of empty space round there, a ready-made railway station, and scope for extra rail capacity if needed.
I went up to London (Sat 25th June, starting out on the Elizabeth line, which seemed pretty quiet, probably due to serving Paddington and Liverpool Street, so affected by the strike, then went out to Greenwich, which was heaving, and rammed, with a lot of tourists, then took the Uber Clipper services to Westminster pier, which extremely busy and rammed. London seemed really and buzzing, and looks like people, have just found ways around the strikes, so dont seem, to have had an affect, on number of people visiting London.
From what saw today, I think, the government will see, that they are not having a big impact on the economy, and so, will just let them rumble on, and see that the railways, are losing money, when they could be making decent money, so will see that, as an excuse, to make cuts etc, to save money, the railways lost, through the strikes, so the RMT is heading for shooting themselves massively in the foot. and badly damaging,the railways, for many years to come.
Quite a long thread! Now that the planned strikes are over, has the union received anything to meet their demands? Or are we looking at additional strikes until the government give in?
If there were to be more strikes, would these take place in the short term, or would they be announced weeks in advance like this one? Thanks.
I was actually quite impressed with the service that was running today, as skeletal as it was, it was vital for weekend work. Respect to the RMT for their efforts, I hope something comes soon.
How many of those fields are (1) on a flood plain, (2) in use for food production, and/or (3) contain well-used rights of way and are thus valuable as a leisure facility? Can the local infrastructure around these fields support mass house building without creating new or exacerbating existing problems? Do the rail services at these stations have spare capacity?
I propose Sugar Loaf Garden City. Plenty of empty space round there, a ready-made railway station, and scope for extra rail capacity if needed.
No apparently people were all thinking of the wrong things when they didn’t vote Boris on Thursday, and they all love him really, and he’s going to be PM into the 2030s…
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The problem is, of course, that whilst there might - just about - be room to build houses, the infrastructure is lacking to support them, not least transport.
There’s also some pretty horrific new housing going up in places. You can pay a few £100k for a shoebox on the edge of Stevenage with a scenic view of the A1(M) right beneath your window. Or at least you would have been able to, but a massive noise-reducing fence has been built round the whole site, which wouldn’t look out of place at HMP Frankland.
This country simply doesn’t have the space to artificially increase population size to support pensioners, at least not with the way economics (especially jobs) are biased towards London and the SE.
There would be much less of a housing problem if whole developments in London were not being sold to overseas investors to leave empty, add in a lot of second homes and other "investment" properties and much more affordable housing would be available.
Low interest rates plus high demand has led to housing becoming an investment for a (highly vocal) minority renter class at the expense of those who need decent homes at a fair price.
Agreed. Increasing the population size in order to support payment of pensions (and the various other costs of supporting old people) simply isn’t viable, as eventually you run into a situation where everything is stifled through lack of space. It hasn’t helped that we’ve just spent an utter fortune on … measures which ultimately supported old people.
Another option is of course to accept that welfare payments can’t be so generous, but again that introduces its own problems. Either that or income tax will simply have to rise, but that is something else which is virtually electorally taboo.
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There would be much less of a housing problem if whole developments in London were not being sold to overseas investors to leave empty, add in a lot of second homes and other "investment" properties and much more affordable housing would be available.
Low interest rates plus high demand has led to housing becoming an investment for a (highly vocal) minority renter class at the expense of those who need decent homes at a fair price.
Absolutely agreed. We certainly need to get away from low interest rates being seen as the norm. Whilst we’re starting to see a move in that direction, I can’t see rates rising to levels seen in the distant past.
Not so, my point was the left-wing newspapers should be so quotable and full of well-written texts that our website membership can quote with pride in their postings, that they would have no need to make any reference whatsoever to right-wing newspapers.
Where possible I try and dual source so that readers can get both sides, if this isn't possible I simply won't link a source and let others look for it online themselves. I just wished everyone dual sourced rather than just linking over to the G***dian.
@ar10642 - this is a practical suggestion and rather off-topic, but you keep poo-poohing moving up north - it's actually a bloody good idea. Why are you so anti it?
While I am fortunate to have been in the position that I *could* have bought a house down south if I really wanted to, I thought it was insane. So I moved up here and (admittedly having something of an advantage that I was born in Durham so knew where to go) I am as happy as a pig in ****.
At some risk to my anonymity, I'll detail my position to demo why I think it's a no-brainer:
(I am married but my wife is basically irrelevant to the following tale as everything financially is in my name and she has followed me - and still doesn't have a job up here - so I will use first person):
I am 35. To grossly simplify my last decade, I started a new career in roughly 2013, moved down south dunno, maybe 2016 (?) to get more money (although I didn't really at first) - moved my way up through the various opportunities there and then managed to move up north again a few months ago while keeping roughly the same job, but doing it remotely.
I've just moved in to the first house I've ever owned, in a 1960s housing estate in an ancient village. It was quite a naive purchase in hindsight because I didn't appreciate just how much work was required on it. Nevertheless was able to do it (with some CC balance transfer tricks - see MSE!) and am now paying less than 1/4 of my salary a month towards it on a 15-year mortgage on a three-bed semi. About the same on the balance transfers/new kitchen at 0% but they will be done in a couple of years.
Within 5 miles there are 3 farm shops for gorgeous food. Within under half an hour's drive (I say this as you likely appreciate this if you're on this site) are the Tanfield Railway, the Weardale Railway (been there today and got an amazing book tip!), Beamish - and at a push the Bowes Railway. Within less than a minute's walk is a field which is alternately meadow or sheep. Within a couple of minutes cycle, is a disused railway line cycle path with many miles with gorgeous views as an option in either direction. We have Ukrainian refugees here (who have been helped out by local businesses). A village magazine (how I know that). Two pubs. A butcher, a greengrocer, two Italians, a Greek, a Pizzaria/Kebab place, an Indian, a Spar, a couple of cafes... various other things. And if you stray outside of walking distance then less than 5 minutes drive away (or 20 minutes cycle on that disused railway) is the best chippy I've ever known. It's won awards. I bloody love this place.
Compare and contrast with down south where I didn't even know all the families in the poxy converted offices where I had a flat (which was actually more to rent per month - and from a very lovely landlord btw - than I'm paying on my mortgage) which had a bedroom, a bathroom, and an "everything else" room. We are already on first name terms with the entire street, we've brought each other presents, lent each other gardening tools like you're supposed to do with neigbours (but never happens down south), and are working towards knowing as much as we can of the estate and eventually as much as we can of the village.
Cause people talk to each other up here rather than being bloody suspicious that it's a scam.
Almost everything is much cheaper. Maybe not in the previously mentioned farm shops but the quality in them is absolutely superb. It's hard to appreciate how much cheaper if used to down south but for an extreme example the Indian here - which is better than most down south (not all) is roughly 60% of the price.
There is essentially no crime. I can leave our house unlocked. And the neighbours would notice dodginess.
I'm actually in a pretty expensive part of County Durham btw. There are terraces in good nick available not that far away for £60k. Genuinely.
Admittedly public transport is poor (although better than I expected). Nevertheless up here everyone has a car and there's nowt on the roads.
Should I wish to go to big city entertainment Newcastle is nearby, and for "in between" cultural activities Durham is less than 15 mins away. Was at the oriental museum last weekend where I saw a clock where the only other one is in the Forbidden City.
And since as part of my move up here I still need to be darn sarf for my job 1 week a month, I have the option of a 3 hour train or unleashing my straight 6 on the very-quiet-up-here A1.
My story is not atypical. It's much better up here. Set aside your anti-northern bias and look into it, seriously.
Happy to explain more about why the north is better than the south if you like
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It's hard to say but they won't want Lynch making fools of them all week again on media rounds. They wouldn't have been banking on that and a fair amount of public support it's given the RMT. He's no fool either.
Indeed - I may have to eat my hat in a bit and admit that my initial assumption there was no way on earth the RMT could win the war for public hearts and minds was... wrong.
Lynch has been doing a smashing job and the government have been looking even more awful and duplicitous than normal.
I haven't changed my mind about the end conclusion because I still think this an argument the government want to have and are prepared for - but I look how silly they're currently looking an d ain't so sure.
No they won't. They will have very limited impact on the economy. They will have far more impact on those going on strike than the rest of us.
As you say some people support the strike because if they succeed that means there is a far better chance of them getting a bigger pay rise, however I would argue if the RMT win some public sector workers might win but most of us lose.
Agreed. Increasing the population size in order to support payment of pensions (and the various other costs of supporting old people) simply isn’t viable, as eventually you run into a situation where everything is stifled through lack of space. It hasn’t helped that we’ve just spent an utter fortune on … measures which ultimately supported old people.
Another option is of course to accept that welfare payments can’t be so generous, but again that introduces its own problems. Either that or income tax will simply have to rise, but that is something else which is virtually electorally taboo.
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Absolutely agreed. We certainly need to get away from low interest rates being seen as the norm. Whilst we’re starting to see a move in that direction, I can’t see rates rising to levels seen in the distant past.
Low-ish interest rates also enable first time buyers onto the property ladder and make it easier to overcome the unsustainably high property cost.
Instead of using a blunt instrument like interest rates, far better to target legislation at speculative property purchase, non-resident property ownership etc
Low-ish interest rates also enable first time buyers onto the property ladder and make it easier to overcome the unsustainably high property cost.
Instead of using a blunt instrument like interest rates, far better to target legislation at speculative property purchase, non-resident property ownership etc
Interest rates might be low, but property prices are insanely high
According to this website, the average property in Liverpool is around £200k. I reside, with parents, on a street of terraced houses and one has just sold for £250k - a quarter of a million pounds. The area is by no means affluent.
Of that £200k, you're going to need a minimum of a 10% deposit, so theres £20k, plus another £5k for general expenditure such as solicitor fees etc. Then you need to convince the bank that you can afford the £900/month paying it back over 35 years.
IMHO, I'm hoping, neigh, praying for a massive property crash; history has shown that high prices never remain high - what goes up, must come down.
EDIT:
As I sit here, as an idea, I have realised, I have paid into a workplace pension since their creation, and have built up an above average sum of money - could there not be a service where I could utilise my pension pot as a deposit in the same way Barclays offer a springboard mortgage (the money is entered into some form of investment, and returned after a period of time). This would encourage young people to save for retirement from a young age, and also give them something in way of a "benefit" to get on the property ladder
If most operators are on emergency measures agreements whereby they receive their operating costs plus 2% regardless of ticketing revenue . If they are not paying for their striking staff during this time aren't they saving the government money
Quite. Loads of money has been saved during the strike. The DfT will be perfectly happy for them to continue ad infinitum. People wfh, staff lose money, government saves money, and nothing changes.
If most operators are on emergency measures agreements whereby they receive their operating costs plus 2% regardless of ticketing revenue . If they are not paying for their striking staff during this time aren't they saving the government money
So wait, all you are asking for is the same rate as people on state pension? I'm sure a certain Chancellor would be delighted to read that. Seriously though, you are angry because many pensioners are getting a bigger increase in income than you when so many of them struggle day to day? Have a word with yourself, please....
The number of Google searches for "joining a union" have gone through the roof so I'm not sure the public are fed up with unions. Or certainly not all of them anyway.
Quite. Loads of money has been saved during the strike. The DfT will be perfectly happy for them to continue ad infinitum. People wfh, staff lose money, government saves money, and nothing changes.
Except that the political fall out from strikes tends to weigh heavily on the incumbent government of the day. It's already dividing the Labour party as well. Boris is a poor PM .....no doubt some will see this as an opportunity to topple him
Low-ish interest rates also enable first time buyers onto the property ladder and make it easier to overcome the unsustainably high property cost.
Instead of using a blunt instrument like interest rates, far better to target legislation at speculative property purchase, non-resident property ownership etc
I hear this argument so much and its absolutely infuriating. Excellent, I can get a low interest rate on a loan that I can't afford to take because I need to provide a substantial down payment. I can give a lender a decade of proof of me paying £600-800 a month reliably to keep a roof over my head, but without that massive wedge of cash its pointless.
@ar10642 - this is a practical suggestion and rather off-topic, but you keep poo-poohing moving up north - it's actually a bloody good idea. Why are you so anti it?
There is nothing wrong with "the North", or anywhere else. But for various people the North isn't an option and it shouldn't be forced as the solution. If you grew up in London or the South East, your family and friends and life are there. Its one thing being single or a childless couple but trying to uproot a whole family?
In a parallel universe my parents may have decided to buy the sub £100k flat on the bank of the Thames in Datchet in the late 80s and had me there in the early 90s. And then I'd be in the exact same frame of mind as @ar10642
So wait, all you are asking for is the same rate as people on state pension? I'm sure a certain Chancellor would be delighted to read that. Seriously though, you are angry because many pensioners are getting a bigger increase in income than you when so many of them struggle day to day? Have a word with yourself, please....
No, I'm saying it's ridiculous to give one section of society 10% whilst, say a Universal Credit claimant or a low paid public sector worker would get a very low increase or nothing at all.
EDIT:
As I sit here, as an idea, I have realised, I have paid into a workplace pension since their creation, and have built up an above average sum of money - could there not be a service where I could utilise my pension pot as a deposit in the same way Barclays offer a springboard mortgage (the money is entered into some form of investment, and returned after a period of time). This would encourage young people to save for retirement from a young age, and also give them something in way of a "benefit" to get on the property ladder
Yes it is known as an interest only mortgage, rather than a repayment mortgage.
Generally you are allowed to take 25% of your pension pot tax free after age 55 (subject to certain restrictions) and you can use this to pay off the mortgage capital.
Some people however take a rather dumb approach to interest only mortgages and forget they are effectively renting from the bank instead of a landlord, and have to hand house back, if they haven’t saved enough to pay off the capital before it expires.
I hear this argument so much and its absolutely infuriating. Excellent, I can get a low interest rate on a loan that I can't afford to take because I need to provide a substantial down payment. I can give a lender a decade of proof of me paying £600-800 a month reliably to keep a roof over my head, but without that massive wedge of cash its pointless.
There is nothing wrong with "the North", or anywhere else. But for various people the North isn't an option and it shouldn't be forced as the solution. If you grew up in London or the South East, your family and friends and life are there. Its one thing being single or a childless couple but trying to uproot a whole family?
In a parallel universe my parents may have decided to buy the sub £100k flat on the bank of the Thames in Datchet in the late 80s and had me there in the early 90s. And then I'd be in the exact same frame of mind as @ar10642
That's exactly it, I've grown up in Sussex, my friends and family are here and it's home. When we were forced to move because our landlord wanted to sell we tried very hard to stay near enough to our kids' school so they could stay there.
I'm sure parts of the North are very nice, although the description of the village sounds very similar to the one I am in now, but it would mean being on our own and seeing family and friends would be a multi day trip involving a hotel rather than a short journey.
I am little bit curious as well, if demand for property is so low up there, what's the reason for that? And of course if there was some sort of mass exodus from the South to, say the North East, prices would start shooting up there, so whilst it's an answer for some people it's not a solution for society as a whole.
No, I'm saying it's ridiculous to give one section of society 10% whilst, say a Universal Credit claimant or a low paid public sector worker would get a very low increase or nothing at all.
The one where 10% is higher than what any public sector employee gets, by an excessive margin. It’s extremely relevant when the government say what can and can’t be afforded.
I don't think pensioners are guaranteed a 10% increase at all.
Sunak adjusted the rise downwards this year (to something similar to the rail fares rise of 3.1%), and could do so again.
It all depends what happens to inflation and government costs (including rail), over the next several months.
And 10%, or whatever, isn't a blanket figure, it's just the headline rate.
Pensions are sliced depending on how/when you paid NI contributions (contracted in/out etc), and increases won't all be at the headline figure.
Pensions are about as opaque as railway finances where NR apparently makes a £1.6 billion "profit" despite being insolvent in any meaningful sense.
@ar10642 - this is a practical suggestion and rather off-topic, but you keep poo-poohing moving up north - it's actually a bloody good idea. Why are you so anti it?
While I am fortunate to have been in the position that I *could* have bought a house down south if I really wanted to, I thought it was insane. So I moved up here and (admittedly having something of an advantage that I was born in Durham so knew where to go) I am as happy as a pig in ****.
At some risk to my anonymity, I'll detail my position to demo why I think it's a no-brainer:
(I am married but my wife is basically irrelevant to the following tale as everything financially is in my name and she has followed me - and still doesn't have a job up here - so I will use first person):
I am 35. To grossly simplify my last decade, I started a new career in roughly 2013, moved down south dunno, maybe 2016 (?) to get more money (although I didn't really at first) - moved my way up through the various opportunities there and then managed to move up north again a few months ago while keeping roughly the same job, but doing it remotely.
I've just moved in to the first house I've ever owned, in a 1960s housing estate in an ancient village. It was quite a naive purchase in hindsight because I didn't appreciate just how much work was required on it. Nevertheless was able to do it (with some CC balance transfer tricks - see MSE!) and am now paying less than 1/4 of my salary a month towards it on a 15-year mortgage on a three-bed semi. About the same on the balance transfers/new kitchen at 0% but they will be done in a couple of years.
Within 5 miles there are 3 farm shops for gorgeous food. Within under half an hour's drive (I say this as you likely appreciate this if you're on this site) are the Tanfield Railway, the Weardale Railway (been there today and got an amazing book tip!), Beamish - and at a push the Bowes Railway. Within less than a minute's walk is a field which is alternately meadow or sheep. Within a couple of minutes cycle, is a disused railway line cycle path with many miles with gorgeous views as an option in either direction. We have Ukrainian refugees here (who have been helped out by local businesses). A village magazine (how I know that). Two pubs. A butcher, a greengrocer, two Italians, a Greek, a Pizzaria/Kebab place, an Indian, a Spar, a couple of cafes... various other things. And if you stray outside of walking distance then less than 5 minutes drive away (or 20 minutes cycle on that disused railway) is the best chippy I've ever known. It's won awards. I bloody love this place.
Compare and contrast with down south where I didn't even know all the families in the poxy converted offices where I had a flat (which was actually more to rent per month - and from a very lovely landlord btw - than I'm paying on my mortgage) which had a bedroom, a bathroom, and an "everything else" room. We are already on first name terms with the entire street, we've brought each other presents, lent each other gardening tools like you're supposed to do with neigbours (but never happens down south), and are working towards knowing as much as we can of the estate and eventually as much as we can of the village.
Cause people talk to each other up here rather than being bloody suspicious that it's a scam.
Almost everything is much cheaper. Maybe not in the previously mentioned farm shops but the quality in them is absolutely superb. It's hard to appreciate how much cheaper if used to down south but for an extreme example the Indian here - which is better than most down south (not all) is roughly 60% of the price.
There is essentially no crime. I can leave our house unlocked. And the neighbours would notice dodginess.
I'm actually in a pretty expensive part of County Durham btw. There are terraces in good nick available not that far away for £60k. Genuinely.
Admittedly public transport is poor (although better than I expected). Nevertheless up here everyone has a car and there's nowt on the roads.
Should I wish to go to big city entertainment Newcastle is nearby, and for "in between" cultural activities Durham is less than 15 mins away. Was at the oriental museum last weekend where I saw a clock where the only other one is in the Forbidden City.
And since as part of my move up here I still need to be darn sarf for my job 1 week a month, I have the option of a 3 hour train or unleashing my straight 6 on the very-quiet-up-here A1.
My story is not atypical. It's much better up here. Set aside your anti-northern bias and look into it, seriously.
Happy to explain more about why the north is better than the south if you like
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Indeed - I may have to eat my hat in a bit and admit that my initial assumption there was no way on earth the RMT could win the war for public hearts and minds was... wrong.
Lynch has been doing a smashing job and the government have been looking even more awful and duplicitous than normal.
I haven't changed my mind about the end conclusion because I still think this an argument the government want to have and are prepared for - but I look how silly they're currently looking an d ain't so sure.
I have to put you a bit right. I live in a village in Bedfordshire. You have described my village to a T. Other than the prices, I can also leave my door unlocked. We get a village news leaflet thing and no crime and a farm shop. Hour drive to London and 40 minutes on the train. Have to give you Beamish as I went not so long ago. They do beautiful fish and chips too. We have an awesome chippy in the next village.
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