Rolling Stock - masses of stock coming off lease

[LNW-GW Joint]

Maybe in this case then, it could make sense to electrify the Chiltern line and improve line speeds once the bulk of Chiltern's DMU fleet becomes life expired, and order/cascade electric trains rather than new diesels

That line of thinking has recently failed with the MML.
Chiltern electrification through to Birmingham and onwards isn't going to happen in the short term.

 

[Gareth Marston]

It depends on whether Roscos adapt and lower their prices to avoid units going off lease. If the alternative is an asset rusting in sidings then leasing them at a very low price is the best option. There is not an excess of stock yet. Apart from the 319s there is very little off lease currently and the Mark IIIs are old. Hopefully the Roscos will slash their prices for South Eastern, EM and XC. I am not convinced that there will be an excess of DMUs. They are mostly leased until early 2020s and the sprinters will due for scrapping in the next 10 years.

Whilst bidders for the back end of queue franchise renewals will have a clear picture as to whats available as cascaded stock they still have to face the fact that new stock scores bonus points under the current system and that new financed fleets can often be better prospects than leasing existing post privatization stock - providing they don't lease too many of them.

As to homes for the off lease trains you have to remember that it will be 2020/2021 when they are all surplus and the next round of franchise replacements such as Northern won't happen until 2027.

 

[bramling]

Whilst bidders for the back end of queue franchise renewals will have a clear picture as to whats available as cascaded stock they still have to face the fact that new stock scores bonus points under the current system and that new financed fleets can often be better prospects than leasing existing post privatization stock - providing they don't lease too many of them.

As to homes for the off lease trains you have to remember that it will be 2020/2021 when they are all surplus and the next round of franchise replacements such as Northern won't happen until 2027.

I wish franchises would be scored on something like "space available off-peak".

Being crammed into a 2-car local DMU or 5-car IEP is not my definition of quality, no matter how new it is. Likewise I'm not interested in wi-fi or plug sockets if I can't get on the train in the first place because it's too busy.

One can understand that there are limits to what can be done at peak times, particularly in the London area, but we shouldn't be getting crowded trains at off-peak times.

 

[Failed Unit]

I wish franchises would be scored on something like "space available off-peak".

Being crammed into a 2-car local DMU or 5-car IEP is not my definition of quality, no matter how new it is. Likewise I'm not interested in wi-fi or plug sockets if I can't get on the train in the first place because it's too busy.

One can understand that there are limits to what can be done at peak times, particularly in the London area, but we shouldn't be getting crowded trains at off-peak times.

You thinking of a certain franchise that operates out of kings cross. Has lots of trains sat in Hornsey while people can’t board 4 coach trains at weekends?

But I agree. One thing when you are in EMTs position with nothing to lease. But when you have stock doing nothing while passengers can’t board this is not acceptable. The fact it happens means the penalties are not high enough. And no they are not all getting maintenance.

 

[bramling]

You thinking of a certain franchise that operates out of kings cross. Has lots of trains sat in Hornsey while people can’t board 4 coach trains at weekends?

But I agree. One thing when you are in EMTs position with nothing to lease. But when you have stock doing nothing while passengers can’t board this is not acceptable. The fact it happens means the penalties are not high enough. And no they are not all getting maintenance.

Yes that's one I was thinking of, but by no means the only one.

As an example, I've been far from impressed with Chiltern turning out a 2-car train on afternoon London to Birmingham runs. (I realise I have just broken a forum rule, thou shall not criticise Chiltern, but it happens to be true!). LM is another one - lots of crowded 4-car trains, including at the London end of the route. Watch out for 5-car trains into Cornwall within the next couple of years too.

Likewise, "not enough trains" shouldn't be a reason for under-par peak train lengths in the future, especially for EMUs. Not while there are 317s, 319s and 321s going spare.

 

[Mikey C]

Unless Daft change their franchising policy and force the winners of EMT/W&B/XC/Chiltern to take cascaded stock or the cheap financing of new stock ends were going to end up with sidings full of DMU's with plenty of miles still on them and new fleets that have increased the capacity on lines by single figure %.

The price of new EMUs is really low, making secondhand ones less competitive

With DMUs, only CAF have a current product, so I'd be surprised if at least the Turbostars weren't snapped up. And I assume part of the Pacer replacement will be from the displaced Sprinters, especially with the lack of imminent electrification in South Wales

The 185s will be an interesting one though...

 

[Prestige15]

The CAF DMU don't look too bad.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I guess CAF liked the 380s?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Yes that's one I was thinking of, but by no means the only one.

As an example, I've been far from impressed with Chiltern turning out a 2-car train on afternoon London to Birmingham runs. (I realise I have just broken a forum rule, thou shall not criticise Chiltern, but it happens to be true!). LM is another one - lots of crowded 4-car trains, including at the London end of the route.

This is largely I believe caused by the leasing conditions of the 350/2s which makes extra mileage very expensive - quite possibly one of the reasons they're going. Many of these trains will be fine with 5 x 24m ( = 6 x 20m), though.

 

[Chester1]

Whilst bidders for the back end of queue franchise renewals will have a clear picture as to whats available as cascaded stock they still have to face the fact that new stock scores bonus points under the current system and that new financed fleets can often be better prospects than leasing existing post privatization stock - providing they don't lease too many of them.

As to homes for the off lease trains you have to remember that it will be 2020/2021 when they are all surplus and the next round of franchise replacements such as Northern won't happen until 2027.

If there is a marginal difference in cost over the long term then it is not necessarily bad to scrap trains before they are life expired. ATW, GWR and Scotrail are before then and absorb a large number of DMUs. I guess it depends on the prices offered for second hand trains for recent bids. Hopefully the Roscos have had a shock and will slash their prices by enough to offset no quality points for new stock. It

The price of new EMUs is really low, making secondhand ones less competitive

With DMUs, only CAF have a current product, so I'd be surprised if at least the Turbostars weren't snapped up. And I assume part of the Pacer replacement will be from the displaced Sprinters, especially with the lack of imminent electrification in South Wales

The 185s will be an interesting one though...

185s may all stay with TPE depending on whether Liverpool to Nottingham is transfered from EM franchise and whether sufficient stock has been ordered. If the new intercity services are very popular then retaining more than 29 x 185s might be a good option depending on the price. Sprinters will definitely be in demand!

 

[hwl]

If there is a marginal difference in cost over the long term then it is not necessarily bad to scrap trains before they are life expired. ATW, GWR and Scotrail are before then and absorb a large number of DMUs. I guess it depends on the prices offered for second hand trains for recent bids. Hopefully the Roscos have had a shock and will slash their prices by enough to offset no quality points for new stock. It 185s may all stay with TPE depending on whether Liverpool to Nottingham is transfered from EM franchise and whether sufficient stock has been ordered. If the new intercity services are very popular then retaining more than 29 x 185s might be a good option depending on the price. Sprinters will definitely be in demand!

The next EM franchise will absorb a few as well

 

[ben2012]

Hi I have not really put much on this forum as I just tend to read but something keeps confusing me what is coming off lease, when and going where can you help me fill in the blanks or what I have missed so I thought I would do a spreadsheet with the information on if there is any changes or I am wrong please let me know
Ben

 

[PaxmanValenta]

I'd like to see a lot more HSTs transferred to XC and XC voyagers transferred to Scotland for highland services.

 

[43096]

I'd like to see a lot more HSTs transferred to XC and XC voyagers transferred to Scotland for highland services.

But not going to happen is it?

 

[sprinterguy]

P

I'd like to see a lot more HSTs transferred to XC and XC voyagers transferred to Scotland for highland services.

Prepare to be disappointed then, given that Scotrail's future HST fleet for domestic inter-city services has already started going through works, and won't be leaving the franchise for at least a decade.

Unless you're referring to the North and West Highland lines, which would come with their own sets of specific challenges.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Yes that's one I was thinking of, but by no means the only one.

As an example, I've been far from impressed with Chiltern turning out a 2-car train on afternoon London to Birmingham runs. (I realise I have just broken a forum rule, thou shall not criticise Chiltern, but it happens to be true!). LM is another one - lots of crowded 4-car trains, including at the London end of the route. Watch out for 5-car trains into Cornwall within the next couple of years too.

Likewise, "not enough trains" shouldn't be a reason for under-par peak train lengths in the future, especially for EMUs. Not while there are 317s, 319s and 321s going spare.

Is that really a forum rule????

 

[Chester1]

Is that really a forum rule????

Haha! Chiltern is generally held in high regard by members because it has part funded the Aylesbury Parkway and Oxford projects, introduced some loco hauled services and put in good seating and tables on its DMUs. It is not perfect but it is certainly a contender for the best ToC.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

This is largely I believe caused by the leasing conditions of the 350/2s which makes extra mileage very expensive - quite possibly one of the reasons they're going. Many of these trains will be fine with 5 x 24m ( = 6 x 20m), though.

TOCs sometimes do strange things to keep their costs down.
SWT for a time used older (ex-BR) stock at weekends rather than their new Desiros, in order to delay expensive heavy maintenance on the new trains.

 

[sprinterguy]

Hi I have not really put much on this forum as I just tend to read but something keeps confusing me what is coming off lease, when and going where can you help me fill in the blanks or what I have missed so I thought I would do a spreadsheet with the information on if there is any changes or I am wrong please let me know
Ben

It's difficult to keep track, though that seems fairly accurate.

There's only fifteen class 150 units currently confirmed as leaving GWR for Northern, though. The fate of the "Angel 12" (Carriages - Which in fact consists of 5 units given that two of these are the 3-car prototypes) appears to be potentially up in the air again according to rumour on this forum.

You've also juxtaposed the rows near the bottom of the sheet regarding GWR HSTs and VTEC 225s. There's 30 class 91 and Mark 4 sets to possibly go off lease, although as you have noted a small number may be retained. There were also 53 HST sets with GWR before they started going off lease, which covered 49 diagrams.

Plus I believe there's fifteen HST sets in use with VTEC (rather than 16), which includes the set (NL65) loaned from EMT to cover the refurbishment programme. You can also add to the list Grand Central's 3 HST sets which are due to go off lease at the end of the year - rumoured to be taken on by EMT for at least an interim period.

 

[43096]

TOCs sometimes do strange things to keep their costs down.
SWT for a time used older (ex-BR) stock at weekends rather than their new Desiros, in order to delay expensive heavy maintenance on the new trains.

It is to do with the maintenance contract with Siemens where there are mileage bands with a higher cost as the fleet moves into a higher mileage band - understandable as mileage related work (e.g. bogie overhauls) becomes due more frequently. Presumably SWT worked out that by using other trains at weekends this kept the Desiro fleet in a lower band and the savings in payments to Siemens were greater than the extra cost of similar work on 455s or 458s (which SWT did in-house).

 

[43096]

You can also add to the list Grand Central's 3 HST sets which are due to go off lease at the end of the year - rumoured to be taken on by EMT for at least an interim period.

No rumour about it - this is a done deal.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Haha! Chiltern is generally held in high regard by members because it has part funded the Aylesbury Parkway and Oxford projects, introduced some loco hauled services and put in good seating and tables on its DMUs. It is not perfect but it is certainly a contender for the best ToC.

No ToC can be that good if there is no first class in my opinion - First is the only way to travel

 

[sprinterguy]

No ToC can be that good if there is no first class in my opinion - First is the only way to travel

Not for the majority of the general population it isn't. There's certainly a lot more to a good TOC than just their first class provision.

No rumour about it - this is a done deal.

Fair enough. Generally until I see an official announcement, hear it from a reliable source in person or actually see proof of the trains arriving with the TOC, I tend to repeat statements made online with caveats. Not to suggest that online sources such as yourself or others are necessarily any less reliable or truthful, but it's harder to verify behind the cloak of anonymity.

 

[aleggatta]

It is to do with the maintenance contract with Siemens where there are mileage bands with a higher cost as the fleet moves into a higher mileage band - understandable as mileage related work (e.g. bogie overhauls) becomes due more frequently. Presumably SWT worked out that by using other trains at weekends this kept the Desiro fleet in a lower band and the savings in payments to Siemens were greater than the extra cost of similar work on 455s or 458s (which SWT did in-house).

It could also have been to spread the heavy maintenance so as to not have a large number of units requiring heavy maintenance at once, I can understand there being a financial penalty if too many units were to enter heavy maintenance at one time as this would also have effect on number of units available and number of overhaul components required at one time

 

[D365]

No ToC can be that good if there is no first class in my opinion - First is the only way to travel

I wish I could share that sentiment, but travel expenses policy dictates otherwise.

Does that then mean you would avoid travel on a Class 395?

 

[43096]

It could also have been to spread the heavy maintenance so as to not have a large number of units requiring heavy maintenance at once, I can understand there being a financial penalty if too many units were to enter heavy maintenance at one time as this would also have effect on number of units available and number of overhaul components required at one time

That is up to Siemens to manage, though, not SWT.

 

[bramling]

Is that really a forum rule????

I was being cynical, however Chiltern do seem highly regarded on here, and to be fair they have done many good things, but in my view they’re not always quite as perfect as made out to be. I’ve had plenty of journeys where the experience starts with a very long queue for the ticket office at Marylebone, followed by a 2-car train appearing for a Birmingham journey. Not impressive by any means at all.

 

[bramling]

I wish I could share that sentiment, but travel expenses policy dictates otherwise.

Does that then mean you would avoid travel on a Class 395?

And does first class on something like a 387 count, where it’s identical to standard, probably full of standard passengers anyway, and likely to have people walking through all the time?

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I wish I could share that sentiment, but travel expenses policy dictates otherwise.

Does that then mean you would avoid travel on a Class 395?

No, because first class on any other train to Kent is basically standard anyway.

And does first class on something like a 387 count, where it’s identical to standard, probably full of standard passengers anyway, and likely to have people walking through all the time?

That's a good thing, if standard class passengers are there I can claim compensation.

Do we have any confirmed dates for the withdrawal of GW 180s?

 

[Marklund]

No ToC can be that good if there is no first class in my opinion - First is the only way to travel

And when you have to start paying rent, or saving for a mortgage, good luck with that attitude!