• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Russia invades Ukraine

gingerheid

Established Member
Joined
2 Apr 2006
Messages
1,500
Returning to the attack on the bridge, the "truck bomb" idea doesn't hold water. Here is a still frame taken a moment before the explosion:
[picture removed]
The truck I've labelled A is past the section that collapsed and is already heading up the incline, so it would have to be the truck I've labelled B. However, if we look at a frame as the explosion happens:
[picture removed]
It's still clearly visible. I suppose it *could* have been truck A but then you'd expect the damage to be much further up the incline.

On the other hand, it looks like the part of the train that caught fire was the part alongside the incline? I think the damage to the road deck was actually at the start of the incline too? I don't want to link to sources that are typically undesirable, but a google image search for Crimean Bridge shows some preview images from R*ssian sources that make it appear that way, as does the less clear image at https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1578854371676524544/photo/1 .
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Strathclyder

Established Member
Joined
12 Jun 2013
Messages
3,235
Location
Clydebank
I wouldn't be shocked if they blow up Zaporizhzhia NPP out of spite now. But even that has very limited consequences, as a VVER reactor simply won't explode in the way that the Chernobyl RBMK did. And if they do that, they'll become even more of a pariah state while the Kursk/Smolensk reactors wlll also be in play.
Indeed. The VVERs and RBMKs are completely different animals in regards to containment structures (never mind anything else), in that the former has what we in the West would recognize as a containment structure. The lack of one at RBMK plants is part of the reason the Chernobyl disaster was so utterly catastrophic, which is also why I'm eying the remaining RBMK plants that are still active in Russia rather nervously should direct military strikes ever be carried out against them, as unlikely as that is at the present time.

Yes, the reactor design flaws that allowed Chernobyl #4 to explode were rectified in the wake of the disaster, but the lack of a containment structure remains one of the design's biggest weaknesses.

If the Zaporizhzhia reactors are bombed directly, while obviously horrible and would result in Russia becoming even more of a pariah state, it'd be small fries compared to Chernobyl getting hit directly, regardless of the fact it hasn't generated electricity for the national grid for nearly 22 years.

Strangely Chernenko is the first name I remember first hand as a Soviet head. Immediately preceded Gorbachev, I think. Wasn't he in about 1984? I remember the name being on the news a lot though cannot remember the detail.
Chernenko was the Soviet leader from February 1984 to March 1985, Gorbachev was indeed selected as his successor.
 

Bantamzen

Established Member
Joined
4 Dec 2013
Messages
9,767
Location
Baildon, West Yorkshire
I wouldn't be shocked if they blow up Zaporizhzhia NPP out of spite now. But even that has very limited consequences, as a VVER reactor simply won't explode in the way that the Chernobyl RBMK did. And if they do that, they'll become even more of a pariah state while the Kursk/Smolensk reactors wlll also be in play.

I expect to see more targeting of civilians, but I don't see any large scale response.
These types of reactors may be much safer than the one in Reactor 4, but let's hope Vlad the Useless doesn't try to test that.
 

Class 33

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2009
Messages
2,362
Some extremely worrying news breaking on The Sun this afternoon, which hasn't made it onto Sky News or BBC News yet. Putin holding a crunch meeting with his inner circle tomorrow and feared that he could go NUCLEAR in response to the Crimea Bridge bombing....


Putin announces crunch meeting with inner circle TOMORROW as Vlad feared to ‘go NUCLEAR’ over Crimea bridge

RUSSIA has announced Vladimir Putin will hold a crunch meeting with his inner circle tomorrow amid looming fears the tyrant could make good on his threats to use nuclear weapons.

Putin's spokesman confirmed Vlad will chair a meeting of the Security Council just days after the catastrophic explosion on the bridge linking mainland Russia to annexed Crimea.

The Security Council is Russia's top decision making body on matters of defence and is personally headed up by Putin.

The humiliating explosion of the Kerch Bridge has led to furious Russian officials to call for strikes on big cities and launch a full-scale war.

The massive blast on the 12-mile bridge killed three people and cut a vital supply line for Russian forces on Ukraine’s southern front.

Western officials believe the Russian leader will now seek revenge for the blast and fear he even might go nuclear.



"Tomorrow the president has a planned meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Putin will be meeting with 12 of the most powerful people in Russia, including his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and the director of the FSB, Aleksandr Bortnikov.

He held a meeting of the Security Council just days before he invaded Ukraine.

Other members of the council include close Putin ally Dimitry Medvedev, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and the heads of the upper and lower houses of Russia's parliament.

Kremlin officials had previously warned any attack on the Kerch Strait would trigger “judgement day” for Kyiv.

And the fears loom in the West about how Putin could seek to escalate the war as he faces defeat after humiliating defeat in Ukraine.

General Lord Dannatt, the former head of the Army, said he expected more indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilian targets adding that there was the risk Putin “might go nuclear”.

Meanwhile, top pro-Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov is demanding a brutal Stalinist response to decimate Ukraine and round up all Russians against total war in the wake of the humiliating hit on the Crimean Bridge.


Alluding to an enemy within, Solovyov called for a return of the brutal Stalin-era SMERSH counter-intelligence to crush all internal opposition to full-scale war in Ukraine.

SMERSH - whose motto was Death to Spies - was used by Stalin to obliterate subversion during and after the Second World War.

Solovyov said: “For the Western world we are already villains [so] let them be afraid of us, rather than us be bullied.

“It's time to answer using all means and tools.

“It's time to remember Soviet military training and act decisively and creatively.


“Not following the enemy's scenario, but breaking their plans, striking unexpected blows in directions where the enemy is not expecting them.

"Ukraine should be plunged into dark times.

“Bridges, dams, railways, thermal power plants and other infrastructure facilities should be destroyed throughout Ukraine.

“The country should switch to a military mode - entirely."

Russian officials have called for a revenge attack following the hit on the bridge that connects Crimea to mainland Russia, with a Putin ally claiming that devastating Sarmat missiles are set to target big cities.

In a video shared on Twitter, the deputy governor of Stavropol Valery Chernitsov said: "Ukrainians, leave your cities, especially the large ones. Because a big surprise is waiting for you.


"Sarmat missiles are ready to strike."

Crimea's governor Sergei Aksyonov said here is a "healthy desire to seek revenge" following the blast, adding that "the situation is manageable - it's unpleasant, but not fatal."

Previously Russian officials said they expected an aggressive response.

Russian senator Alexander Bashkin said: “This was a declaration of war without rules.”

He said the Kremlin response will be “adequate, conscious and, possibly, asymmetric”, the Sunday Telegraph reports.


Russia has already launched an apparent response to the explosion of the Crimea bridge by repeatedly shelling the southern city of Zaporizhzhia killing at least 17 people.

Ukrainian officials said the strike damaged residential buildings and left dozens of civilians trapped in the rubble.

Putin has already appointed General Sergey Surovikin to take command of Russian forces who are desperately trying to regroup amid the struggling invasion.

Russian investigators said the blast was caused by a truck exploding but stopped short of blaming Ukraine.


CCTV of the explosion shows the blast on the roadway seemingly centred around a large semi-truck.

Kyiv has not claimed responsibility but an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky said this was “just the beginning”, adding: “Everything that is stolen must be returned to Ukraine”.

The Ukrainian security service said “the bridge burns beautifully”.

Zelensky took the opportunity to mock Putin in a comical weather report.

During his nightly video address on Telegram, the Ukrainian leader quipped that the conditions were "cloudy in Crimea".


President Zelensky said: "Today was a good and mostly sunny day in our country.

"Over most of the territory, it was about 20 degrees Celsius and sunny.

"Unfortunately, it was cloudy in Crimea, although it was still warm.

"But however the clouds are, Ukrainians know what to do, and they know that our future is sunny.”

The Crimea Bridge has now partially reopened to traffic but video footage shows it has been badly damaged.

Part of the road bridge had collapsed into the sea and a fire has destroyed a section of the railway alongside it.

As I've said before, I believe Putin is mad and evil enough to enforce a nuclear attack on Ukraine, and even Britain. I am a nervous wreck what could happen tomorrow or sometime this week. A nuclear attack on Ukraine would wipe out the whole country. It just doesn't bear thinking about. And godknows how things will escalate after that. He could go for "The West" after that, and we'll all be wiped off the face of the planet. Some of you may say in response something like "Don't worry. That is extremely unlikely.". But this really could happen. Putin is an absolute mad evil sick b*****d at what he has done to Ukraine over the past several months, and how he could escalate things much MUCH further. I've read reports that he is seriously ill and he know he doesn't have long left to live, and that he may want to take Russia and Europe with him too. This really is extremely extremely worrying.
 

dakta

Member
Joined
18 Jun 2008
Messages
577
Nothing ill intended but I know it's been suggested a few times before, have you thought of stopping reading the news? It doesn't seem to be doing you much good
I am a nervous wreck
 

najaB

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Aug 2011
Messages
30,859
Location
Scotland
I am a nervous wreck what could happen tomorrow or sometime this week
It could happen at any time, and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it. Worrying about it as as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by chewing Bubble gum.
 

Yew

Established Member
Joined
12 Mar 2011
Messages
6,556
Location
UK
Some extremely worrying news breaking on The Sun this afternoon, which hasn't made it onto Sky News or BBC News yet. Putin holding a crunch meeting with his inner circle tomorrow and feared that he could go NUCLEAR in response to the Crimea Bridge bombing....




As I've said before, I believe Putin is mad and evil enough to enforce a nuclear attack on Ukraine, and even Britain. I am a nervous wreck what could happen tomorrow or sometime this week. A nuclear attack on Ukraine would wipe out the whole country. It just doesn't bear thinking about. And godknows how things will escalate after that. He could go for "The West" after that, and we'll all be wiped off the face of the planet. Some of you may say in response something like "Don't worry. That is extremely unlikely.". But this really could happen. Putin is an absolute mad evil sick b*****d at what he has done to Ukraine over the past several months, and how he could escalate things much MUCH further. I've read reports that he is seriously ill and he know he doesn't have long left to live, and that he may want to take Russia and Europe with him too. This really is extremely extremely worrying.
I do sometimes wonder if the Tabloids would rejoice after a nuclear attack on the UK, thinking about how many papers they can sell reporting on events, then rampantly speculating about a second attack.
 

Class 33

Established Member
Joined
14 Aug 2009
Messages
2,362
Nothing ill intended but I know it's been suggested a few times before, have you thought of stopping reading the news? It doesn't seem to be doing you much good

Well I like(although not sure that's the right word lately) to keep in touch with what's going on in the news. I don't watch much TV news. I just usually watch the news for about 20 minutes in the morning, and then sometimes(but not always) watch a bit of the news in the evening. Otherwise I frequently check the news online during the day. It's a habit difficult to get out of unfortunately. Also doesn't help that with my current job there is currently lots of "down time" most of the week as work volumes are currently low and having no work to do for hours. And the only thing we can do is just surf the internet whilst there's no work. Checking numerous news websites during these times, and seeing some pretty worrying frightening news about what could happen with this war. Not good atall.

It's a rollercoaster of news about whether Putin could go nuclear or not. Whilst there are some articles saying things like "We should no longer worry about Putin using nuclear weapons" which is reassuring to read. But then also there's much more worrying articles saying things like "The chances of Putin ordering a nuclear attack is looking much more likely".

I have this constant anxiety during recent months that we could be within just a few weeks left of living in Britain due to the constant threat that Putin could nuke Britain.

I feel there should be a support conversation thread about this matter, for people like me who are extremely worried about this and effecting their mental health. Similar to the Covid Restrictions Support Thread. The thing is though is unlike if there was a Covid lockdown(highly unlikely by the way) and/or return of Covid restrictions, if Putin orders a nuclear attack on Britain, well we won't be able to all moan about it, as we'll all be completely obliterated off the face of the planet. :'(
 

dakta

Member
Joined
18 Jun 2008
Messages
577
Well I like(although not sure that's the right word lately) to keep in touch with what's going on in the news.

Nothing wrong with that, or keeping tabs on the news constantly for that matter - and I'm not going to even suggest the topic of nuclear annihilation doesn't want a bit of discussion at the minute.

But from what I'm reading I think your response is disproportionate to the threat. News should be taken with a pinch of salt anyway - drama sells so any news is good news to them, and things they claim typically comes from dubious sources and even good data is hard to get from an active conflict area - remember covid, where you could literally read different newspapers some saying it had only begun and others claiming lockdown was coming to an end just to swap headlines a few days on. Don't get too invested in the media.

If it is actually weighing on you a bit I would try and lay off the news at least a bit, or at least try and worry about other things that are more sure - such as that definitely limited supply of hydrogen the sun has
 

Cdd89

Established Member
Joined
8 Jan 2017
Messages
1,453
My fear is not of an imminent nuclear threat - I think that’s extraordinarily unlikely - but rather things escalating, Putin lacking a politically viable off-ramp, and NATO being in the position of deciding between nuclear retaliation and revealing that it won’t respond to nuclear weapons. You can see how the gamble could be worth it to Putin (who is running out of options), but not to us.

Every week seems to involve new levels of escalation from both sides, and while Ukraine is morally in the right, that doesn’t make it any less dangerous and it makes any possible settlement seem ever more distant. I continue to think that a face saving exit for Putin, involving some relatively minor concessions while also defining further invasion as an absolute red line, is the best way to end this.
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,936
OK so you've read the Sun's take on it. Now for the actual news:

Putin will convene his national security Council for a meeting tomorrow. Like he does every Monday.

There is no evidence that he intends to use nukes. I won't say definitely not, in the same way I can't say he definitely won't strip naked and dance on the table at said meeting. Nothing is impossible.

I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that the Sun last week said that Putin's Doomsday Plane (whatever that is) had taken off, and that Putin was also in a bunker in Siberia (when in fact he subsequently turned up in St Petersburg at a meeting)

@Class 33 you really really need to appreciate how the tabloid media operates. Sensationalist headlines to sell their mucky rags or to make you click on ads.

For your own sake, as others have said, stick to reputable sources of news:

BBC
Sky
CNN
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
France 24
The Telegraph

Do not pay any attention to:

The Daily Mail
The Daily Express
The Sun
The Mirror
Russia Today
Yahoo News

Edit: I've just dissected that Sun article. It's deliberately pulling together various unrelated aspects in order to cause fear. The "going nuclear" quote is from Lord Dannatt, who was not referring to the security council meeting, and has been trotting the same line since February. The quote about Putin holding a meeting just before the invasion. Well yes, as I said he holds one of these once a week.

What I am worried about is the Ukrainians who are likely to see a massive pummelling in response.
 
Last edited:

Darandio

Established Member
Joined
24 Feb 2007
Messages
10,679
Location
Redcar
Some extremely worrying news breaking on The Sun this afternoon, which hasn't made it onto Sky News or BBC News yet. Putin holding a crunch meeting with his inner circle tomorrow and feared that he could go NUCLEAR in response to the Crimea Bridge bombing....

Because there is zero for the BBC or Sky to report on the matter, read the edit in the post directly above this which provides a perfect explanation.

Whilst you do talk about how this is affecting you i'd also suggest cherry picking sensationalist headlines and putting them in the thread won't actually be helping others reading it who have the same feelings. There will be people who share similar fears but just aren't contributing to the thread.
 

TheEdge

Established Member
Joined
29 Nov 2012
Messages
4,489
Location
Norwich
BBC
Sky
CNN
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
France 24
The Telegraph

Do not pay any attention to:

The Daily Mail
The Daily Express
The Sun
The Mirror
Russia Today
Yahoo News

I cannot agree with and stress this point enough. Al Jazeera and Reuters are really good ones, but tabloids are worth ignoring, they over-egg everything. Reactions to the "nuclear train" for example.

I'd add that's this is one of the rare times someone is being unfair to the Sun and the Mail. Russia Today, Sputnik and TASS are not news by any sense, they are out and out Russian state propaganda, in the true sense, not the hyperbolic one.
 
Last edited:

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,936
Can I also add that I recommend reading the Russian nuclear doctrine. The bar for first use is set extremely high. Higher in fact than the US. Putin connot simply override the doctrine. His generals would be compelled to refuse orders.
 

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
1,825
What I am worried about is the Ukrainians who are likely to see a massive pummelling in response.

I am too, but at the same time, I suspect they've got a few things up their sleeves. I wouldn't be shocked if they have a few insurance policies in place: such as loaded trucks waiting to be blown up next to key infrastructure in Russia.

Russia is not going to use a nuclear weapon in this situation. They know that the consequences will be that all the gloves are off, and that there's likely to be a response that will be unthinkable for the Russian population.

I continue to think that a face saving exit for Putin, involving some relatively minor concessions while also defining further invasion as an absolute red line, is the best way to end this.

Putin by himself has very little power. What matters is offering the Russian leadership and especially the oligarchs an offramp, which should include a public offer by the West to allow them to keep their assets as long as Putin goes.

But I think something else is worth bearing in mind: NATO know exactly where these weapons are and if they're in any danger of being used. No Russian military leader is going to risk literally everything on a weapon that may or may not work.
 

deltic

Established Member
Joined
8 Feb 2010
Messages
3,237
I do sometimes wonder if the Tabloids would rejoice after a nuclear attack on the UK, thinking about how many papers they can sell reporting on events, then rampantly speculating about a second attack.
If there was a nuclear attack on the UK the tabloids wont be selling any papers!
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,217
Location
SE London
Well I like(although not sure that's the right word lately) to keep in touch with what's going on in the news. I don't watch much TV news.

In that case, have you considered confining your news watching to those outlets that tend to report the news as it is without seeking as much to sensationalise it? For example, if you check the BBC Ukraine War page, right at the moment you'll see precisely nothing on it about the hypothetical nuclear threat that the Sun are reporting - which is presumably because that particular story is just the Sun trying to sensationalize things and twist the facts instead of reporting what is actually happening/likely.
 

Killingworth

Established Member
Joined
30 May 2018
Messages
4,915
Location
Sheffield
Can I also add that I recommend reading the Russian nuclear doctrine. The bar for first use is set extremely high. Higher in fact than the US. Putin connot simply override the doctrine. His generals would be compelled to refuse orders.
Bear in mind that the winds are more likely to carry any nuclear fallout towards Moscow than to the west. Not guaranteed of course, east winds do blow, but the Germans found that to be a disadvantage with gas in WW1.

The biggest danger we may all face is that this conflict, effectively a civil war within the former USSR, is becoming a global war as economic weapons are ramped up - and pipelines, cables and satellite communications may be vulnerable.

The animosity being stoked in the areas of conflict won't subside for generations however it ends. The poor souls who previously lived there are losers however you view it. After any truce/armistice/victory/peace the power struggles within both Russia and Ukraine will be unpleasant. Accusations of traitor, cowardice and collaboration will fly and some are liable to become violent. (Alsace was taken by Germany in WW2 and men conscripted into German forces, many dying on the Eastern front. The rest of France has taken decades to forget. The European Parliament's presence in Strasbourg is a legacy of that period of making up.)

The refugees from both sides are also a concern. Nuclear is, hopefully, low down the list of threats, but Putin and his gang are capable of anything the more they feel trapped. They have other nasty options. The Russian people need to know they have peaceful options too.
 

Chingy

Member
Joined
24 Jan 2020
Messages
174
Location
Frome
A breaking news story now appearing on the BBC, regarding the attack on the Crimean bridge;


Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of attacking the bridge to Russian-annexed Crimea, saying that it was an "act of terrorism".
President Putin said Ukraine's intelligence forces had aimed to destroy a critically important piece of Russia's civil infrastructure.
He was speaking at a meeting with the head of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Alexander Bastrykin.
Officials say three people were killed in the blast on the bridge.
The victims were in a nearby car when a lorry blew up, Russian officials say.
"The authors, perpetrators and sponsors are the Ukrainian secret services," Mr Putin said.
"There is no doubt this is a terrorist act aimed at destroying critical Russian civilian infrastructure."
The rail and road crossing was opened in 2018 and is a key supply route for Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Bastrykin said that citizens of Russia and some foreign states had aided preparations for the attack.

Sounds like Putin is paving the way to attempt to legitimise a serious response, albeit with no indication on what that may or may not be yet.

Interesting to note that they appear to suspect both foreign and internal citizens too, admitting that some Russians appear to have aided the attack.
 

adc82140

Established Member
Joined
10 May 2008
Messages
2,936
But what exactly are his options? General mobilisation (unpopular), nuclear (unlikely), wallop Kyiv with more missiles (more likely). Note he framed it as terrorism, not an act of war.
 

DustyBin

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2020
Messages
3,634
Location
First Class
OK so you've read the Sun's take on it. Now for the actual news:

Putin will convene his national security Council for a meeting tomorrow. Like he does every Monday.

There is no evidence that he intends to use nukes. I won't say definitely not, in the same way I can't say he definitely won't strip naked and dance on the table at said meeting. Nothing is impossible.

I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that the Sun last week said that Putin's Doomsday Plane (whatever that is) had taken off, and that Putin was also in a bunker in Siberia (when in fact he subsequently turned up in St Petersburg at a meeting)

@Class 33 you really really need to appreciate how the tabloid media operates. Sensationalist headlines to sell their mucky rags or to make you click on ads.

For your own sake, as others have said, stick to reputable sources of news:

BBC
Sky
CNN
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
France 24
The Telegraph

Do not pay any attention to:

The Daily Mail
The Daily Express
The Sun
The Mirror
Russia Today
Yahoo News

Edit: I've just dissected that Sun article. It's deliberately pulling together various unrelated aspects in order to cause fear. The "going nuclear" quote is from Lord Dannatt, who was not referring to the security council meeting, and has been trotting the same line since February. The quote about Putin holding a meeting just before the invasion. Well yes, as I said he holds one of these once a week.

What I am worried about is the Ukrainians who are likely to see a massive pummelling in response.

Very good post. Please @Class 33 take note of the above.

But what exactly are his options? General mobilisation (unpopular), nuclear (unlikely), wallop Kyiv with more missiles (more likely). Note he framed it as terrorism, not an act of war.

Go moaning to the UN maybe? Seriously, nothing would surprise me……
 

43096

On Moderation
Joined
23 Nov 2015
Messages
15,355
But what exactly are his options? General mobilisation (unpopular), nuclear (unlikely), wallop Kyiv with more missiles (more likely). Note he framed it as terrorism, not an act of war.
Putin can't really claim it as an act of war, as that would likely mean admitting it's not a special military operation after all.
 

w0033944

Member
Joined
23 Jul 2011
Messages
552
Location
Norfolk
OK so you've read the Sun's take on it. Now for the actual news:

Putin will convene his national security Council for a meeting tomorrow. Like he does every Monday.

There is no evidence that he intends to use nukes. I won't say definitely not, in the same way I can't say he definitely won't strip naked and dance on the table at said meeting. Nothing is impossible.

I'd also like to draw your attention to the fact that the Sun last week said that Putin's Doomsday Plane (whatever that is) had taken off, and that Putin was also in a bunker in Siberia (when in fact he subsequently turned up in St Petersburg at a meeting)

@Class 33 you really really need to appreciate how the tabloid media operates. Sensationalist headlines to sell their mucky rags or to make you click on ads.

For your own sake, as others have said, stick to reputable sources of news:

BBC
Sky
CNN
The Guardian
Al Jazeera
France 24
The Telegraph

Do not pay any attention to:

The Daily Mail
The Daily Express
The Sun
The Mirror
Russia Today
Yahoo News

Edit: I've just dissected that Sun article. It's deliberately pulling together various unrelated aspects in order to cause fear. The "going nuclear" quote is from Lord Dannatt, who was not referring to the security council meeting, and has been trotting the same line since February. The quote about Putin holding a meeting just before the invasion. Well yes, as I said he holds one of these once a week.

What I am worried about is the Ukrainians who are likely to see a massive pummelling in response.
Agreed. I'm expecting missiles hitting Ukranian cities, not an ICBM.
 

DynamicSpirit

Established Member
Joined
12 Apr 2012
Messages
8,217
Location
SE London
A breaking news story now appearing on the BBC, regarding the attack on the Crimean bridge;




Sounds like Putin is paving the way to attempt to legitimise a serious response, albeit with no indication on what that may or may not be yet.

Interesting to note that they appear to suspect both foreign and internal citizens too, admitting that some Russians appear to have aided the attack.

The irony of someone who repeatedly arranges for missiles to target and indiscriminately kill civilians complaining about terrorism :frown:
 

skyhigh

Established Member
Joined
14 Sep 2014
Messages
5,394
I have this constant anxiety during recent months
Honestly, take a step back and just pause. If you're feeling overwhelming anxiety I'd recommend making an appointment with your GP. There is very good medication about to help with anxiety and they will be able to refer you to other sources of help in your area.

Worrying constantly about things you can't change at all is no way to go about.
 

uglymonkey

Member
Joined
10 Aug 2018
Messages
480
In the cold war , we all lived under the fear of being vaporized within 4 minutes of the warning of an attack. We learned to live with it and carry on with our lives. Worrying about something you have no control over , will freak you out to no effect.
 

Cloud Strife

Established Member
Joined
25 Feb 2014
Messages
1,825
But what exactly are his options? General mobilisation (unpopular), nuclear (unlikely), wallop Kyiv with more missiles (more likely). Note he framed it as terrorism, not an act of war.

Indiscriminate missile attacks: possible, although it runs the risk of Ukraine receiving better and better missile defence systems. They're already defending themselves quite well, and this sort of thing only encourages the West to supply more forms of defence. Meanwhile, they don't have substantial missile stocks, and they've already resorted to using the S-300 defence system in an offensive capacity.

General mobilisation: the most likely if the current mobilisation fails. However, they don't have the equipment or the structures to mobilise so many people, and if the current mobilised personnel get chopped down (and they will!), then no-one is going to want to go near Ukraine.

Nuclear: highly unlikely. The risks are just too, too high for too many people in Russia. Not to mention that if they try a nuclear attack and it fails, they will have just told the Chinese and NATO that their nuclear deterrent is in fact not a deterrent. For that reason, Russian military leaders will not authorise a strike.

IMO, the most likely scenario is simply more acts of terror against civilians. I can fully imagine genocide in parts of the occupied territories, especially if the situation becomes more desperate.
 

the sniper

Established Member
Joined
4 Sep 2007
Messages
3,499
I'd be rather nervous if I lived in Kiev and my daily commute included crossing the Dnipro river...
 

Killingworth

Established Member
Joined
30 May 2018
Messages
4,915
Location
Sheffield
Once war starts borders don't make neat defensive lines. The border with Russia is very long. I'm concerned that the Ukrainians are quite understandably taking actions over the border into Russia, particularly in the region of Belgorod. International support for Ukraine may reduce if they are seen to be advancing into, or shelling civilian areas, over that border. Military targets being used against them are more justifiable, but not with ground troops. The potential for escalation remains very high.
 

Top