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Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

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bramling

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A YouGov poll for The Times has the Conservative lead down to five points:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/...e-points-as-corbyn-closes-in-on-may-rgmckfnpp

I wouldn't read too much in to that. A lot of people may say they will vote elsewhere at this point in the campaign, even plan to do so, but when it comes to the day, by the time they have made the journey to the polling station and spent the few moments in the privacy of the polling booth, I can see many people reverting to the tested and familiar option. The Manchester attack will probably prove beneficial to May too.
 
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Domh245

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I wouldn't read too much in to that. A lot of people may say they will vote elsewhere at this point in the campaign, even plan to do so, but when it comes to the day, by the time they have made the journey to the polling station and spent the few moments in the privacy of the polling booth, I can see many people reverting to the tested and familiar option. The Manchester attack will probably prove beneficial to May too.

More of the same old ending triple locks, taking away the winter fuel allowance, and tax raises whilst cutting the NHS and Police? Also worth noting that that particular YouGov poll was fieldwork from the 24th and 25th May, meaning that it was all post Manchester - the various criticisms of the incumbent government by various members of the police force won't have helped of course.

The biggest thing to read into that poll isn't the Labour will win - obviously not as the Conservatives have got the higher polling number, but that Mrs May has managed to squander her strong and stable 20% polling advantage in the couple of weeks since the election has been called. I read somewhere that if there is a uniform swing across the country (obviously not the case) then they'll decrease their working majority to 2 (from 17), which would be pretty funny to watch (apart from the fact that we'd then have to live with a government split down the lines like that)
 

AM9

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... The Manchester attack will probably prove beneficial to May too.

She almost certainly benefitted from the cessation of campaigning immediately after her drubbing by Andrew Neill. Tuesday's papers were full of very pointed questions, even the Tory supporting ones, (well that's nearly all of them anyway!).
Maybe that's why she wanted to delay the return to open debate until Sunday.
 

HSTEd

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I do wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the percieved effectiveness of the tabloid press at throwing election results.

Despite the vast majority of the press being virulently anti-Corbyn he is not doing that badly, partly due to a terrible campaign from May. But still.....
 

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She almost certainly benefitted from the cessation of campaigning immediately after her drubbing by Andrew Neill. Tuesday's papers were full of very pointed questions, even the Tory supporting ones, (well that's nearly all of them anyway!).
Maybe that's why she wanted to delay the return to open debate until Sunday.

Her ITV interview has been postponed until Tuesday 4th June due to ITV not wanting to change their schedule next week (when prime time is effectively taken up by Britain's Got Talent, soaps and the news.)

BBC are showing their Corbyn interview tonight, Sturgeon on Sunday, Nuttall on Monday and Farron on Thursday, while on Wednesday they have their leaders debate.
 
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Howardh

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I wouldn't normally direct anyone to the Daily Mail, but every time there's a story on May/Corbyn/the election, there are swaithes of people in the comments totally agains the Tories, many saying they have lost their vote.

OK, many may well be infiltrators from Labour (but where are the Tories on the Groaniad website?) but if you look at the dissenter's posting history well before the election was called, many are further right than Ghengis Khan.

What's hurting them? Not knowing if their WFA will be cut. The uncertainty over dementia and properties/inheritance. Lately it's terror...police cuts (where are the local bobbies with their ears on the ground?) and many state Corbyn was right to make his speech as 22 deaths clearly mean we might have the wrong answers.

Of course on the day they may well return to the Tories, but if these questions aren't answered fully then they will get a kicking. And the postal votes are arriving as I write.
 

southern442

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I wouldn't read too much in to that. A lot of people may say they will vote elsewhere at this point in the campaign, even plan to do so, but when it comes to the day, by the time they have made the journey to the polling station and spent the few moments in the privacy of the polling booth, I can see many people reverting to the tested and familiar option. The Manchester attack will probably prove beneficial to May too.

I would. The poll showing Labour at 38% was conducted after the attack. Labour actually have a genuine shot at winning now. All that needs to be done is to get more people to not vote Tory.

Also how would the attack benefit her? 22 people, some of them young children, died. I'm not saying she's personally responsible but something somewhere in our current system failed to keep the country safe.
 
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southern442

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She almost certainly benefitted from the cessation of campaigning immediately after her drubbing by Andrew Neill. Tuesday's papers were full of very pointed questions, even the Tory supporting ones, (well that's nearly all of them anyway!).
Maybe that's why she wanted to delay the return to open debate until Sunday.

Hardly open debate is it :lol: I haven't seen a prime minister be as unwilling to have their opinions challenged as she has been for a while.
 

Howardh

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Hardly open debate is it :lol: I haven't seen a prime minister be as unwilling to have their opinions challenged as she has been for a while.

Hasn't the Tory election "launch" been out off? If it's on the advice of the police as a security concern...fine, understandable. But if it isn't that, what are they hiding from?

While Theresa'a away, it appears there's no-one available to answer the questions to her.
 

HSTEd

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How long before adverts of Corbyn in Salmond's or Sturgeon's pockets start appearing?
 

Domh245

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Possibly before ones of May being a robot controlled by Farage start appearing. ;)

Might be better than that creepy Lib Dem poster with a merger of Farage and May *shudders*

Interestingly though, Lord Ashcroft (of Lord Ashcroft Polls) has a constituency by constituency model that suggests that May is currently on for a 100+ majority, despite the earlier YouGov poll.
 

Howardh

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With all these polls that got it wrong last time (ie. too close to call when the Tories stormed it) working out that it was the "shy Tory" that put the polls out....if they are factoring that in this time, but there are no shy Tories, then the polls may actually be narrower than they are.

Not saying that's necessarily true; just a thought based on last time. Would be interesting if, this time, there was a "shy Labour" effect.

Also, I don't think Labour would get into power this time based on seats alone, if the Tories had no overall and not the strength to go it alone, how popular in Scotland would a Labour/SNP pact be...seeing as it appears the voters there have moved away from Labour to the SNP?

If that happened, all I could see would be support from the SNP whilst negotiating....so a decent Brexit where it's soft enough for Scotland could be the end of the "pact" and a new election called.

But if the SNP get a soft Brexit - and the call for independence quietly goes away, would the SNP have signed their own death warrant?
 

pemma

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Corbyn's interview with Andrew Neil didn't go well. Neil did spend 2/3rd of the time asking him defence questions. The only positives for Corbyn is that May's interview didn't go well either and that most people probably didn't realise it was on. He strongly gave the impression that the issues are with him being leader not the Labour manifesto.
 

ainsworth74

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Well that's been my feeling since the manifesto was leaked! I actually quite like a lot of the stuff in their manifesto (and more than is in the Conservative manifesto) but I just can't get behind Corbyn as a leader. Nothing against him on a personal level, he's probably the best of the bunch, but I just don't see him as a leader.
 

Cowley

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Well that's been my feeling since the manifesto was leaked! I actually quite like a lot of the stuff in their manifesto (and more than is in the Conservative manifesto) but I just can't get behind Corbyn as a leader. Nothing against him on a personal level, he's probably the best of the bunch, but I just don't see him as a leader.

I prefer him to any of the other leaders of the main parties but I can't get along with Diane Abbot who in my opinion shouldn't be anywhere near a government.
 

HSTEd

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That was to be expected.
However for Corbyn I think anything less than a disaster is a win.
 

ainsworth74

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I prefer him to any of the other leaders of the main parties but I can't get along with Diane Abbot who in my opinion shouldn't be anywhere near a government.

Good grief the woman is a menace to her party let alone the country at large!
 

backontrack

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Michael Fallon just made a total arse of himself on C4 News. It was glorious.

Problem is, Krishnan Guru-Murthy's speaking to Diane Abbott next.
 

Barn

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That was to be expected.
However for Corbyn I think anything less than a disaster is a win.

I thought Corbyn scraped through the terrorism part of the interview fairly uninjured. He's such a liar about the IRA though. His claim never to have met the IRA is demonstrably false, as is his revisionist claim to have been a peace mediator rather than a plain old republican supporter.
 

Busaholic

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Michael Fallon just made a total arse of himself on C4 News. It was glorious.

.

If you were to choose a British politician to advance an argument for five minutes, then to propose exactly the opposite argument for another five minutes, without drawing breath or showing any sign of embarrassment, Michael Fallon would be that person. He is utterly shameless, and obsessed with keeping the Tories (and, naturally, himself) in power for evermore. George Orwell recognised the type all too well.
 

backontrack

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If you were to choose a British politician to advance an argument for five minutes, then to propose exactly the opposite argument for another five minutes, without drawing breath or showing any sign of embarrassment, Michael Fallon would be that person. He is utterly shameless, and obsessed with keeping the Tories (and, naturally, himself) in power for evermore. George Orwell recognised the type all too well.

Very true. He's truly shameless. He always reverts to repulsive slurs and dog-whistle tactics when he screws up, too.
 

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George Osborne in blistering attack on Theresa May's manifesto pledges - 'It's clearly badly thought through'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...listering-attack-theresa-mays-tory-manifesto/

George Osborne has publicly attacked key policies in Theresa May’s manifesto just days before the election as he pledged not to “pull punches” after quitting politics.

The former Tory chancellor, who was sacked by Mrs May when she became prime minister, called her social care proposals “badly thought through”.

He also said the Prime Minister’s repledged immigration target could force family members to live apart and accused her of abandoning liberal politics.

The interventions, made in a BBC Radio Four interview on Saturday, were given not as a politician but as the editor of the Evening Standard, the London newspaper.

However they will infuriate Mrs May’s team who view Mr Osborne with suspicion after a series of critical headlines in the newspaper he now runs.

The attacks saw Mr Osborne compared to Margaret Thatcher and Edward Heath, former Tory prime ministers who were a constant thorn in the side of their successors.

Mr Osborne was unexpectedly sacked from the Cabinet when Mrs May took office last July and has since decided not to seek re-election as an MP.

Asked about Mrs May’s social care plans - which saw the party scrap universal winter fuel payments and the pensions ‘triple lock’ - Mr Osborne was critical.

"They were clearly badly thought through because the Prime Minister herself decided to rethink them,” he said, referencing the decision to announce a care cost cap after a backlash.

On the decision to keep a promise to get net migration below 100,000 a year, Mr Osborne said the Tories needed to give details on how it would be delivered.

He said: "Which section of industry is not going to have the labour that it currently needs? Which families aren’t going to be able to be reunited with other members of their family abroad? Which universities aren’t going to have overseas students?

“Now, if the Conservative Government can answer those questions, all well and good. If they can’t, the Evening Standard is going to go on asking the question. We will also be as ferocious in asking questions of the Labour Party.”

Mr Osborne also criticised the direction of the Conservative Party, saying: “Both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are offering in very different ways a retreat from international liberalism and globalisation.”

he former Tory chancellor repeatedly defended his views by saying it was his duty to scrutinise politicians now he was a newspaper editor rather than an MP.

“I have to call it as I see it as an editor. Of course everyone knows I was a Conservative MP for 16 years, I was a member of the Conservative cabinet and I know many of the people in the Conservative Government,” he said.

“But it’s also my responsibility now as the editor of the paper to interpret what’s going on in politics and the rest of life for my readers. So I’m not pulling punches because I think I would be doing readers a disservice.”

However the decision to go public with his criticisms just two weeks before an election and with the Tory lead slipping in the polls is likely to anger Mrs May’s allies.

Mr Osborne also shrugged off claims that the immigration target had been adopted by his own Government and repeatedly missed. He added he was having “great fun” as editor.
 

bramling

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I would. The poll showing Labour at 38% was conducted after the attack. Labour actually have a genuine shot at winning now. All that needs to be done is to get more people to not vote Tory.

Also how would the attack benefit her? 22 people, some of them young children, died. I'm not saying she's personally responsible but something somewhere in our current system failed to keep the country safe.

Because prior to the Manchester attack May and the Conservatives were having a pretty bad couple of weeks, in particular with the mess over the social-care proposals.

The attack completely took this out of public focus. In my view had the attack not happened May would have faced a complete week of bad publicity.

I don't believe Labour have a realistic chance of winning this election, although I've always thought the result may not be quite as good for the Conservatives as some have predicted. Not long to wait now!
 

317 forever

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Twitter seems to be active with Damien Green's (Conservative Work and Pensions Secretary) interview with Andrew Marr today, which apparently (I've not seen it myself) contains these gems of insightful thinking:

Marr: Where do you get an extra £8bn for the NHS?
Damian Green: A lot of it is from retargeting money from elsewhere in the NHS

And:

Damian Green: 'our manifesto is not uncosted. We just haven't costed it yet'

My next post here is not unwritten. I just haven't written it yet! :lol:
 

317 forever

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Only if there aren't enough police to man the stations. It has happened before, Tony Blair and his foot-in-mouth disease election, although whether that refers to Gordon Brown is debatable.
Was changed from May to June.
*Note if it is, the Gorton could be the longest wait for a by-election ever!

From memory, Iain Mills MP for Meriden passed away on 16.1.97 and there was no by-election. It was subsumed into the General Election on 1.5.97. So, there will be a slighly shorter gap at Manchester Gorton this year.
 

317 forever

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I would. The poll showing Labour at 38% was conducted after the attack. Labour actually have a genuine shot at winning now. All that needs to be done is to get more people to not vote Tory.

Also how would the attack benefit her? 22 people, some of them young children, died. I'm not saying she's personally responsible but something somewhere in our current system failed to keep the country safe.

I think that some of the UKIP vote that looked destined to go to the Conservatives could now go to Labour instead. Both main parties are currently doing better in the polls than they did at the 2015 General Election.

A related thought is that a swing from UKIP to Labour or Conservatives is equivalent to half a corresponding swing to them from the LibDems. So, the collapse of UKIP could render a few LibDem seats vulnerable.
 

HSTEd

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The fact remains Theresa May's campaign has been an unmitigated disaster for the Conservative Party.
Corbyn has actually fought a far better campaign than many were expecting. And sustaining 25 point leads is always going to be difficult, even before the mess she has made of it.
 
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