Theresa May calls General Election on 8th June.

[Barn]

I think both came away mostly unscathed from that. The Paxman segments were fairly chichéd and we learned nothing new from them. Much better to answer questions from the audience.

 

[overthewater]

Don't count on it. Timmy had a 12,000 majority in 2010, reduced to 8,000 in 2015.
The only thing Tim has been any good at since he became leader is turning people away from voting for him. He used to be a great constituency MP, that's now gone. And a lot of people who voted for him in 2015 have also been thoroughly put off by his stance on Brexit.

Isn't his area a remain area?

 

[507021]

Isn't his area a remain area?

I believe so, yes.

 

[overthewater]

SO there is a better chance of him keeping his seat. I don't think Lib dems will lose seats overall, but I think it wont win back its heartland. I think it might pick up seats from the Tories in London but lose other seats outside London.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Apart from his outright lies about the IRA, Corbyn put in a very good performance in the Q&A section.

What did he say that you think was a lie?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The people who are not likely to see these snippets will have already cased their vote via the post.

Your source for this is...what?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Whos seen this gem:

NOTE THIS IS A VIDEO:

It has Tory persons: Dominic Raab saying,


https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/869141726866354177

Words fail me........

Gosh! That's my reaction too. Just watched the video and he really did say that: "The typical user of a food bank is not someone who's languishing in poverty, it's someone who has a cashflow problem". It's right there on the video.

Just before he says that, he claims to have studied Trussell Trust data. Yet a visit to the Trussell Trust website instantly reveals the statement:

Thirteen million people live below the poverty line in the UK, with individuals going hungry every day for a range of reasons, from benefit delays to receiving an unexpected bill on a low income.

If Dominic Raab doesn't think going hungry every day isn't 'languishing in poverty', I'd love to know what he thinks living in poverty actually is!

 

[Barn]

What did he say that you think was a lie?

His compete reinvention of his support for the armed republican struggle as some sort of peace mission (effectively drawing on others' work to retrospectively legitimise his actions). His claim to have met 'Sinn Fein' when he frequently shared platforms with convicted murderers. His repurposing of an event honouring IRA dead as a cross-community event honouring all dead.

 

[Barn]

Gosh! That's my reaction too. Just watched the video and he really did say that: "The typical user of a food bank is not someone who's languishing in poverty, it's someone who has a cashflow problem". It's right there on the video.

Most food banks have a policy of not giving repeat food packets to the same recipient. My understanding is that typically something has gone wrong, such as a delayed benefit, benefit sanction, eviction, etc, and the aim is to give emergency food and get this sorted. I'm not trying to understate the problem but the issue isn't with people remaining in extreme poverty and using food banks for week after week, it's for crisis relief when something has gone wrong. Calling this a cash flow problem is a bit crude and wouldn't be my choice of words but the underlying meaning isn't completely wrong.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Most food banks have a policy of not giving repeat food packets to the same recipient. My understanding is that typically something has gone wrong, such as a delayed benefit, benefit sanction, eviction, etc, and the aim is to give emergency food and get this sorted. I'm not trying to understate the problem but the issue isn't with people remaining in extreme poverty and using food banks for week after week, it's for crisis relief when something has gone wrong. Calling this a cash flow problem is a bit crude and wouldn't be my choice of words but the underlying meaning isn't completely wrong.

I think the real problem with Dominic Raab's remark wasn't so much the use of the phrase 'cashflow problem' but that in the first part of the sentence he appeared to imply that severe poverty wasn't the reason for using foodbanks. That seems wrong. If your cash safety margin is so low that a temporary 'cashflow problem' such as a delayed benefit means you can't even buy food, that certainly looks to me like indicating poverty.

 

[Barn]

I think the real problem with Dominic Raab's remark wasn't so much the use of the phrase 'cashflow problem' but that in the first part of the sentence he appeared to imply that severe poverty wasn't the reason for using foodbanks. That seems wrong. If your cash safety margin is so low that a temporary 'cashflow problem' such as a delayed benefit means you can't even buy food, that certainly looks to me like indicating poverty.

I would agree with you that the lack of safety margin does indicate an uncomfortable and stressful existence which is why administrative delays in the part of the state are unforgivable and sanctions need to be rethought. I struggle to believe that there are 13,000,000 people in hungry poverty though. It sounds like hunger is being conflated with some sort of statistical measure of relative income?

 

[TrainSpotter44]

Well, i'm already past the point where i'd like to punch Paxman.

So was I he just made a Stupid face and nodded his head extremley fast and rather rudely to Theresa May aswell as the chat section balancing Labour i'm undecided on. Who to vote for Paxman is clearly a Corbyn Supporter

 

[northwichcat]

I can't believe the audience member who questioned May on Brexit backed down when May didn't answer her question. It was obvious Faisal Islam wanted her to say May didn't answer her question but she refused to.

The question related to the woman having voted Leave solely on the basis that the NHS would get the £350m extra, which has proved to be a lie. May responded by saying it was a passionate campaign where both sides made misleading claims and then went on to her usual Brexit script.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So was I he just made a Stupid face and nodded his head extremley fast and rather rudely to Theresa May aswell as the chat section balancing Labour i'm undecided on. Who to vote for Paxman is clearly a Corbyn Supporter

Posted on a social media group by a Labour supporter:

Paxman showed his partiality by being extremely rude and aggressive towards Corbyn whilst laid back and lazy with May, and still she couldn't cope!!!

I think we probably need to accept that we all tend to subconsciously expect newsreaders to be harder on politicians whom we don't like, and to push the opinions we hold (because, obviously, we think those opinions are true and the other side's opinions are false!). And it's therefore very easy to perceive bias against our views where in fact it's just reporters rigorously questioning both sides. Personally, I thought Paxman was equally rude and irritating to both Corbyn and May.

 

[northwichcat]

Currently trending on Twitter "Corbyn struggles on Woman's Hour." I'm surprised. If he can deal with Dianne Abbott, he should be able to deal with any woman.

 

[EM2]

Currently trending on Twitter "Corbyn struggles on Woman's Hour." I'm surprised. If he can deal with Dianne Abbott, he should be able to deal with any woman.

He couldn't recall one specific number (the cost of free childcare for two-year-olds).
Theresa May suggests a child's breakfast would cost 6.8p, and Phillip Hammond says that HS2 will cost £30bn, and no-one bats an eyelid...

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I must be getting tired. I saw a BBC headline 'UKIP predicts election success' and read it as 'UKIP predicts erection success'.

This would have been entirely unremarkable, except that the sentence under the headline turned out to be (my bolding) 'Paul Nuttall rejects the suggestion the party is in decline and says it will be even bigger by 2018 '.

(Nothing intended against UKIP in this particular posting - it was entirely my misreading)

 

[Busaholic]

SO there is a better chance of him keeping his seat. I don't think Lib dems will lose seats overall, but I think it wont win back its heartland. I think it might pick up seats from the Tories in London but lose other seats outside London.

The LibDems won't regain many of their seats in the SW, but I'd be surprised if they don't pick up two or three, also a couple more in Scotland and SW London/Surrey, probably about 12 to 15 in all.

 

[Domh245]

YouGov have made some predictions as to how many seats will be won by each party, and may end up with egg on their face

CON: 310 (-20)
LAB: 257 (+28)
SNP: 50 (4-)
NI: 18 (+8)
LIB: 10 (+1)
Plaid: 3 (NC)
Green: 1 (NC)
Other: 1 (NC)

 

[me123]

YouGov have made some predictions as to how many seats will be won by each party, and may end up with egg on their face

CON: 310 (-20)
LAB: 257 (+28)
SNP: 50 (4-)
NI: 18 (+8)
LIB: 10 (+1)
Plaid: 3 (NC)
Green: 1 (NC)
Other: 1 (NC)

Which would lead to the hilarious situation where the Conservatives have talked their way out of a majority government Even though it wouldn't be enough to have Mrs May packing her bags, it would nevertheless be a disaster for her. She can't be very strong and stable in a minority administration. She really has royally screwed up her own campaign to a position where her certain gains now seem to be much less so. Conversely, a gain of this magnitude could possibly be sufficient for Corbyn to remain in place even if he doesn't actually win. Whether or not that's a good thing remains to be seen.

The SNP would be very happy with 50 seats. In the face of an organised unionist vote, they are almost certainly going to lose seats and to hold onto 50 of them would be a very strong showing all things considered. I'd expect maybe slightly fewer seats than this to be honest, but given that they'd be losing their seats to the Tories then the recent revelations could sway things back to the yellow.

I must be getting tired. I saw a BBC headline 'UKIP predicts election success' and read it as 'UKIP predicts erection success'.

Neither seems particularly likely.

 

[Y961 XBU]

I think the Lib Dems will have 15 seats as Labour voters will vote for them where they think they can beat the tories

 

[AlterEgo]

YouGov have made some predictions as to how many seats will be won by each party, and may end up with egg on their face

CON: 310 (-20)
LAB: 257 (+28)
SNP: 50 (4-)
NI: 18 (+8)
LIB: 10 (+1)
Plaid: 3 (NC)
Green: 1 (NC)
Other: 1 (NC)

How is NI shown as plus eight? They haven't gained eight new constituencies since the last election!

I'll eat my hat if Corbyn manages to pull back that many seats. He has grown over the campaign however. Time will tell if his childcare mistake today will cost him a load of votes.

The Lib Dems have managed to lose my vote so I'll probably spoil my ballot again.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

How is NI shown as plus eight? They haven't gained eight new constituencies since the last election!

Northern Ireland currently has 18 constituencies, so I'm sure that +8 is a typo and should be 'NC'. Even with that fix though, something seems to be amiss as the total gains and losses don't add up to zero.

My instant reaction is strong scepticism of this survey. I don't have enough info to assess the methodology, but it seems to be way out of line with all other polls.

 

[bramling]

How is NI shown as plus eight? They haven't gained eight new constituencies since the last election!

I'll eat my hat if Corbyn manages to pull back that many seats. He has grown over the campaign however. Time will tell if his childcare mistake today will cost him a load of votes.

The Lib Dems have managed to lose my vote so I'll probably spoil my ballot again.

I just can't see Corbyn gaining seats in bulk. Sure there may be some turnover here and there, but the basic truth is he's blatantly seen as less desirable / competent than Miliband, he's not in the centre ground (although to be fair his campaign has not done a bad job of trying to appear and appeal to the centre ground), there are figures in his team who are heavily despised like Abbott, and as a party they are badly divided. May has had a self-destructed campaign, but I still think in the end enough people will stick with what they know. I do think the social care row will probably mean she doesn't make as many gains off Labour as she probably would have done.

I think SNP will lose a small handful of seats, perhaps even to the Conservatives. Personally I'd be happy to see this mark the start of a perceived decline for divisive Sturgeon and her odious party. I think she knows this is a possible path as my impression is she has not been happy ever since the election was announced.

Lib Dems may prove an unknown. I'd be surprised not to see them make a small number of gains, but their campaign hasn't really got off the ground and the focus on Brexit may have been ill judged.

With all this in mind I can't see the Conservatives going downhill as I can't see where else the votes will go. Most marginals outside London, South Wales, the North East, South Yorkshire and the inner cities are already Conservative, and I just can't see the current incarnation of Labour appealing to them. Likewise most of these places voted leave so I can't see what the Lib Dems will offer either. So it will be votes for May, even if many people end up doing this somewhat reluctantly and with a little concern about issues like social care. For many people, the reality may be that whilst the social care may mean they vote with a bitter taste in the mouth, the distant and uncertain prospect of this will prove the lesser of two evils compared to the likelihood of tax rises, more immigrants, and Diane Abbot as Home Secretary under Labour.

 

[northwichcat]

Northern Ireland currently has 18 constituencies, so I'm sure that +8 is a typo and should be 'NC'. Even with that fix though, something seems to be amiss as the total gains and losses don't add up to zero.

My instant reaction is strong scepticism of this survey. I don't have enough info to assess the methodology, but it seems to be way out of line with all other polls.

And last time the exit poll was more accurate than any poll before it and the exit poll showed a very different outcome.

 

[Senex]

Which would lead to the hilarious situation where the Conservatives have talked their way out of a majority government Even though it wouldn't be enough to have Mrs May packing her bags, it would nevertheless be a disaster for her. She can't be very strong and stable in a minority administration. She really has royally screwed up her own campaign to a position where her certain gains now seem to be much less so. Conversely, a gain of this magnitude could possibly be sufficient for Corbyn to remain in place even if he doesn't actually win. Whether or not that's a good thing remains to be seen.

Very true. Even if she gets back with a similar majority to the last parliament or just a little better, her position will be massively weakened -- and that not just domestically but also in the eyes of the EU people she will have to negotiate with. The vanity of the decision to call this election becomes clearer by the day. The one winner in all this is Jeremy Corbyn personally, who has in general come across very well indeed. It's just a pity he seems to be surrounded by such ghastly people who have not come across at all well (Abbott, Thornberry, ....).

 

[chris11256]

According to a BBC article, this poll has received a great deal of scepticism from both parties. YouGov themselves say that even a minor change in opinion would result in the methodology giving the conservatives a large majority.

Link to article

Just to pull another quote from the article. "This was not a poll, rather it is the outcome of a model that has used untested methodology to come up with this hung parliament conclusion," she said. "Other polls are predicting a completely different outcome, so we would use this information with a pinch of salt."

 

[northwichcat]

According to a BBC article, this poll has received a great deal of scepticism from both parties. YouGov themselves say that even a minor change in opinion would result in the methodology giving the conservatives a large majority.

Link to article

Just to pull another quote from the article. "This was not a poll, rather it is the outcome of a model that has used untested methodology to come up with this hung parliament conclusion," she said. "Other polls are predicting a completely different outcome, so we would use this information with a pinch of salt."

Just reading this article this refers to the survey I completed earlier in the week where it asked which party I would vote for, which party I voted for at the last election (if I voted), which candidate I will vote for (based on my Postcode), how likely it is I would vote, then asking is there any chance I could forget to vote or not bother. So it was much more comprehensive than many polls which simply ask which party you will vote for and whether it's the same as last time.

Of course now a poll has predicted a hung parliament it might change some people's views on whether it's worthwhile to go out and vote.

 

[Howardh]

Last time there were around, what, 50 polls before the election that got the result wrong, and the one that did didn't get published as the pollsters assumed it was "rogue".

But still, I don't think there will be anything but a Tory win. However if that "win" is fewer seats than today, than will make may a laughing stock (a) in Parliament (b) amongst her own back-benchers (c) amongst the public and (d) in the EU.

She was 6 - 0 up at half-time, took off her keeper and is now clinging on 6 - 4. If she can't negotiate a General Election, she's sod all chance of negotiating with 27 other countries all ganged up against her.

The woman's a joke *says someone who voted Tory in 2015*

 

[northwichcat]

Last time there were around, what, 50 polls before the election that got the result wrong, and the one that did didn't get published as the pollsters assumed it was "rogue".

But still, I don't think there will be anything but a Tory win. However if that "win" is fewer seats than today, than will make may a laughing stock (a) in Parliament (b) amongst her own back-benchers (c) amongst the public and (d) in the EU.

She was 6 - 0 up at half-time, took off her keeper and is now clinging on 6 - 4. If she can't negotiate a General Election, she's sod all chance of negotiating with 27 other countries all ganged up against her.

The woman's a joke *says someone who voted Tory in 2015*

As May's aim was to increase her majority, you could argue that losing seats and still being the biggest party would be a failure.

If May fails to get >50% of the seats it's difficult to see who she can form any kind of alliance with. Obviously Labour, Greens and SNP can be ruled out to start with. UKIP might not have any MPs so that leaves the DUP as the most likely option but as Northern Ireland voted to Remain in the EU it's difficult to see them forming an alliance with a pro-Brexit party anymore than the Lib Dems would.

As Robert Peston said yesterday all May has to do is answer some questions on her policies properly for her ratings to increase but she keeps refusing to do that. Just because Blair and Cameron got away with doing that doesn't mean she will.