What might the Government do about Christmas?

MontyMinerWA

Member
Joined
6 Jan 2019
Messages
61
Of course it's your personal choice and depends on the health of your parents, but I think for many (elderly) people, there is a recognition that there are some things (like seeing family) which are worth the small risk of catching or dying from the virus.
In all fairness it would be my parents who would make the final decision. And for what it's worth this virus scares the living daylights out of them.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

Richard Scott

Member
Joined
13 Dec 2018
Messages
636
In all fairness it would be my parents who would make the final decision. And for what it's worth this virus scares the living daylights out of them.
And that is entirely their right to make the decision but some of us don't want the Government keeping making them for us.
 

Huntergreed

Established Member
Joined
16 Jan 2016
Messages
1,162
Location
Dumfries
And that is entirely their right to make the decision but some of us don't want the Government keeping making them for us.
Couldn't agree more. The government have taken away our ability to choose which level of risk we like to take.

It's like saying 'no crossing roads, it is too dangerous, you must stay on your street on your side for the greater good until it's safe (it never is, and the virus will never go away).
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
Couldn't agree more. The government have taken away our ability to choose which level of risk we like to take.

It's like saying 'no crossing roads, it is too dangerous, you must stay on your street on your side for the greater good until it's safe (it never is, and the virus will never go away).
No, it's like saying don't drive dangerously because you could kill someone else.
 

6862

Member
Joined
3 Dec 2014
Messages
199
In all fairness it would be my parents who would make the final decision. And for what it's worth this virus scares the living daylights out of them.
That is of course their decision, which they are free to make.

I think the worrying thing is that we are now in a situation where it's a very real possibility that the government could ban Christmas celebrations and there would be no resistance from our elected representatives as has been the case so far.
 

Huntergreed

Established Member
Joined
16 Jan 2016
Messages
1,162
Location
Dumfries
I think the worrying thing is that we are now in a situation where it's a very real possibility that the government could ban Christmas celebrations and there would be no resistance from our elected representatives as has been the case so far.
Even more worrying I find is that the public seem to not question these restrictions (if anything, they support them). A public who doesn’t question government imposed restrictions combined with a government who have the power to pass any laws they wish without parliamentary scrutiny is a very dangerous situation to be in, and one which it’s important to be cautious about (please, everyone on here, don’t just accept and obey without doing your own research first, like everyone else seems to be doing)
 

Baxenden Bank

Established Member
Joined
23 Oct 2013
Messages
1,910
Within this story, on the BBC News website today, is the following nugget of information:

Researchers from UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used computer models to see how the virus might spread in the UK as pupils returned to the classroom and their parents were more able to go back to work or resume other activities.

The study assumes children are less likely to catch - and therefore spread - coronavirus and that some parents would continue to work from home.

As first reported in June, the combined effect on pupils and parents would be enough to cause a second wave if there was no effective test-and-trace programme.

This would happen around December 2020 and would be twice as big as the first peak, unless the government took other actions such as reimposing lockdown.

The study, now formally published in the Lancet Child and Adolescent Health, shows a second wave could be prevented if:

  • both 75% of people with Covid symptoms were found and 68% of their contacts traced or
  • both 87% of people with symptoms were found and 40% of their contacts traced
My bold.

You read it here first.

BBC News article re Testing & Tracing
Testing and tracing 'key to schools returning', scientists say
 

Richard Scott

Member
Joined
13 Dec 2018
Messages
636
Within this story, on the BBC News website today, is the following nugget of information:



My bold.

You read it here first.

BBC News article re Testing & Tracing
Testing and tracing 'key to schools returning', scientists say
So what if it's twice as big as first peak, weren't exactly overwhelmed then. We know a lot more about this virus now. We can't stay in this bubble forever. When are people going to realise that we have to let it spread so that we can get on with life. Lots of people are fed up with this including many in older generation if my mother and her friends are representative of that and would rather take a chance that carry on like we are. We are wrecking lives in so many ways because of an obsession with this virus.
 

geoffk

Established Member
Joined
4 Aug 2010
Messages
1,492
In all honesty, I can’t see people allowing the government to stop them from having their normal Christmas, and regardless of what restrictions they try to impose I think many will simply ignore these anyway, unless they are of course legislated.
Have the current restrictions in the north passed into law yet? I read that, as of yesterday, they had not, in which case they are still "advisory".
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
So what if it's twice as big as first peak, weren't exactly overwhelmed then. We know a lot more about this virus now. We can't stay in this bubble forever. When are people going to realise that we have to let it spread so that we can get on with life. Lots of people are fed up with this including many in older generation if my mother and her friends are representative of that and would rather take a chance that carry on like we are. We are wrecking lives in so many ways because of an obsession with this virus.
Well a peak coming in December is likely to be a lot harder to deal with. And I think it would be nice if we didn't have to shut down the majority of non-Covid related treatments for a second time.

I think it's also a mistake to suppose that because health workers managed to do what it took to cope with the peak we have had that it would work so well if they had to do it all over again.

But in any case, the conclusion was that to avoid this we should make the track and trace system actually work and I'm not sure what's so controversial about that.
 

Ianno87

Established Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
7,737
I think it's also a mistake to suppose that because health workers managed to do what it took to cope with the peak we have had that it would work so well if they had to do it all over again.
It's OK, we've clapped for them 10 times. They'll be fine about it, I'm sure <\sarcasm>
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
I suspect they missed the words "peaking in", i.e. December would be the high point.
Ah yes.

Anyway the report recommended improving track and trace to avoid a second wave peaking in December due to schools opening (with the possible implications for people's Christmas plans).

Suppose we got track and trace to work properly then it turned out the second wave wouldn't have happened anyway because this report was just scientists making up doom and gloom while pretending to run a model. Where is the downside? Doesn't that then mean we can afford to relax something else and let people have a better Christmas?
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
54,469
Location
Up and down the south WCML (mostly)
Ah yes.

Anyway the report recommended improving track and trace to avoid a second wave peaking in December due to schools opening (with the possible implications for people's Christmas plans).

Suppose we got track and trace to work properly then it turned out the second wave wouldn't have happened anyway because this report was just scientists making up doom and gloom while pretending to run a model. Where is the downside? Doesn't that then mean we can afford to relax something else and let people have a better Christmas?
There seems to be no disadvantage whatsoever to improving test, track and trace other than the cost of it, which when compared with things like the furlough scheme is pocket money. Therefore regardless of anything else, this should be done, and people need to start playing along with it properly, possibly including some level of legal mandation, e.g. making writing "Mickey Mouse" on a pub's list an offence.

Some would argue a privacy issue, but as the data is being recorded independently and only called in in the event of a case it doesn't really do anything of the sort. It's not, and would not be, a big Government database of all your movements, and if you're worried about that you'd best bin your mobile phone and pay cash everywhere.
 

farleigh

Member
Joined
1 Nov 2016
Messages
713
There seems to be no disadvantage whatsoever to improving test, track and trace other than the cost of it, which when compared with things like the furlough scheme is pocket money. Therefore regardless of anything else, this should be done, and people need to start playing along with it properly, possibly including some level of legal mandation, e.g. making writing "Mickey Mouse" on a pub's list an offence.
'Failing to give your details to a barman when requested'
 

Domh245

Established Member
Joined
6 Apr 2013
Messages
5,741
Location
Somewhere
I suspect they missed the words "peaking in", i.e. December would be the high point.
That is of itself an interesting aspect of the report - why does it peak in December, is it because a second lockdown in imposed early/mid November, or because the model assumes that herd immunity is reached by that point. Skimming the paper itself doesn't give an answer to that unfortunately
 

Baxenden Bank

Established Member
Joined
23 Oct 2013
Messages
1,910
There seems to be no disadvantage whatsoever to improving test, track and trace other than the cost of it, which when compared with things like the furlough scheme is pocket money. Therefore regardless of anything else, this should be done, and people need to start playing along with it properly, possibly including some level of legal mandation, e.g. making writing "Mickey Mouse" on a pub's list an offence.

Some would argue a privacy issue, but as the data is being recorded independently and only called in in the event of a case it doesn't really do anything of the sort. It's not, and would not be, a big Government database of all your movements, and if you're worried about that you'd best bin your mobile phone and pay cash everywhere.
I would regard an A4 sheet of paper, signed and left on the bar for the next person, who is then able to read my name and phone number something of a data privacy issue.
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
54,469
Location
Up and down the south WCML (mostly)
I would regard an A4 sheet of paper, signed and left on the bar for the next person, who is then able to read my name and phone number something of a data privacy issue.
That, of course, is not the only way to do it. It would be more sensible to have a pad of forms which you complete and insert into a "ballot box". The pub would keep each day's in their cash safe in a separate envelope and shred or chuck on the fire after 2 weeks.
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
That is of itself an interesting aspect of the report - why does it peak in December, is it because a second lockdown in imposed early/mid November, or because the model assumes that herd immunity is reached by that point. Skimming the paper itself doesn't give an answer to that unfortunately
Ah that's a very good question.

From skimming the report, they aren't assuming any more lockdowns, so the peak will be indeed because herd immunity is reached.

This seems entirely reasonable - the two scenarios with a peak correspond to about 300 000 deaths which seems plausible for the impact of a large fraction of the population becoming infected.
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
That, of course, is not the only way to do it. It would be more sensible to have a pad of forms which you complete and insert into a "ballot box". The pub would keep each day's in their cash safe in a separate envelope and shred or chuck on the fire after 2 weeks.
But - presumably, not how everyone is doing it. And possibly some guidance could have been given there.

It sounds very much like the way the US does (try to) keep track of gun ownership, but without a centralised (and computerised) database that could be interrogated to get a list of people with guns.
 

Jamiescott1

Member
Joined
22 Feb 2019
Messages
131
If the nhs is overwhelmed due to more coronavirus hospitalisations combined with flu season then surely this means that social distancing and masks does not work as their should not be a big flu season this year as masks and social distancing should stop the spread of flu
 

AdamWW

Member
Joined
6 Nov 2012
Messages
760
If the nhs is overwhelmed due to more coronavirus hospitalisations combined with flu season then surely this means that social distancing and masks does not work as their should not be a big flu season this year as masks and social distancing should stop the spread of flu
Yes you would expect it to limit flu spread and I think that Australia has seen that to some extent.
I don't think that's the only reason the health service gets loaded in winter.

Curiously, in the long report to SAGE on preparing the NHS for winter, this factor doesn't seem to be mentioned explicitly...
 

Baxenden Bank

Established Member
Joined
23 Oct 2013
Messages
1,910
That, of course, is not the only way to do it. It would be more sensible to have a pad of forms which you complete and insert into a "ballot box". The pub would keep each day's in their cash safe in a separate envelope and shred or chuck on the fire after 2 weeks.
I haven't sampled the procedure 'in the flesh' but my description was how I read my local pub was going to operate from it's facebook post - enter on a common sheet, then kept securely for however many days, then destroyed. Individual slips, placed immediately into a 'box of the day' I would find entirely reasonable. It's not the publican that concerns me, it's some of the other punters. I would think privacy / security of the data would be particularly important for any female customers.
 

Top