Which classes may be nearing their end?

[Aaron1]

What are EMR going to replace the 153's with on the Grimsby-Barton line?

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Well, the Southern classes 455/8 and 313 have been going for around 40 years. It is surely time to retire these rolling stock?

 

[D365]

I imagine the Hitachi crack issue is the main reason why an order hasn't been placed!

Hitachi aren’t the only company who can supply 125mph EMUs for British markets

 

[warwickshire]

What are EMR going to replace the 153's with on the Grimsby-Barton line?

156s. Various runs now taking place.
153s will be ending on Saturday the 11th December 2021.
I have also posted this in the 153 update thread as well.
However 156s.

 

[Mikey C]

Hitachi aren’t the only company who can supply 125mph EMUs for British markets

For a small order like that, you really wouldn't want a completely different fleet of trains if you could avoid it

 

[Wtloild]

How much longer will 150s & 156s stay in service for?
They're approaching 40 years old, noisy & polluting.
Similar bodied EMUs are already gone or on their way out of service.
Realistically, I can't see them going any time soon cos they're so numerous & concentrated in the low-budget franchises, but surely someone somewhere needs to start considering what to replace them with.

 

[fgwrich]

Can see the 319s lasting til at least the end of 2022/early 2023, depending on how the 730s start entering service with WMT/LNWR so the 17 or all 26 323s can transfer to northern.

I’d forgotten about that small subclass! So it’ll be a race between the released Northern units and directly replaced LNWR units, both Alstom dependant.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Hitachi aren’t the only company who can supply 125mph EMUs for British markets

They also aren't the only manufacturer who's had issues with the quality of steel...

 

[theageofthetra]

Can't see 466 being around much longer.

 

[Milo T.K]

Can't see 466 being around much longer.

466s are gonna be around for quite a long time.
Apparently it seems the 313s will be going 2023 from what I heard once the 379s move over to GN

 

[plugwash]

Hitachi aren’t the only company who can supply 125mph EMUs for British markets

I wonder who would be interested in such an order? If you only consider Manufacturers who have made 125MPH EMUs for the UK market recently then I think there is only Hitatchi and CAF. If you want ones with Diesel shunting/self rescue capabilities then I think there is only Hitachi.

Would the order be big enough to get a Manufacturer interested in doing a new design? According to Wikipedia LNER have 8 remaining DVTs, If we assume they would be replaced with eight 9 car EMUs than that would be 72 cars. For comparison TPE's Nova 2 fleet is 60 cars so this might be just about big enough to get a new manufacturer interested.

 

[D365]

I wonder who would be interested in such an order? If you only consider Manufacturers who have made 125MPH EMUs for the UK market recently then I think there is only Hitatchi and CAF. If you want ones with Diesel shunting/self rescue capabilities then I think there is only Hitachi.

All I can say is that you’ve surmised the logical options

 

[Geeves]

Until an order is placed to replace the 150s, 156s and 158s (at Northern at least), then you are looking at 2 to 5 years on top of that for construction and testing. You can easily see said units being in service another decade.

 

[Sm5]

No ones mentioned 37’s here..

Once DRS retires, theres a handful of Colas ones, and they already have started using class 43’s on NRTTs and did a class 66 test south of the thames last year. Your left with just ROG, but that could easily change.

After that is the WCRC/LSL ones.

37’s havent got much life left…

 

[fgwrich]

No ones mentioned 37’s here..

Once DRS retires, theres a handful of Colas ones, and they already have started using class 43’s on NRTTs and did a class 66 test south of the thames last year. Your left with just ROG, but that could easily change.

After that is the WCRC/LSL ones.

37’s havent got much life left…

I believe the ROG ones will probably be retired (or returned back to Europhoenix) before DRS retires the last of theirs - although they are selling a number of the fleet, they are still investing in the ETH fitted /4 fleet. It’s the early refurbished locos that are up for sale.

 

[D365]

Network Rail are still footing the bill for Class 37 ETCS fitment!

 

[Wivenswold]

I may be wrong, but I can see the DfT doing something to keep the workshops open. There's going to be some backlash to the cancellation of the Leeds portion of HS2. I think the counter to that will be the electrification of Leeds to Manchester and the replacement of all BR-era rolling stock, particularly around the Midlands and North.

So I would say that it's time to savour any BR-era rolling electric rolling stock. The 156/158/159s are probably safe though.

 

[RealTrains07]

I may be wrong, but I can see the DfT doing something to keep the workshops open. There's going to be some backlash to the cancellation of the Leeds portion of HS2. I think the counter to that will be the electrification of Leeds to Manchester and the replacement of all BR-era rolling stock, particularly around the Midlands and North.

So I would say that it's time to savour any BR-era rolling electric rolling stock. The 156/158/159s are probably safe though.

That would be poor decision making on the governments part. New trains should be ordered because they are required and the existing stock is end of life. Northerns 323s are far from end of life and soon they will be the only BR-era emu left in northerns fleet.

Not do it all for show to prove a point about levelling up

The midlands wont have BR- era stock left anyway before that occurs so it would be pointless for the government to do so in the midlands.

 

[Julia]

LU 1972 stock - I'd be amazed if they last until 2030. If replacements aren't delivered I can see the Bakerloo line grinding to a halt as the stock gives up. They've been knackered already for more than a decade.

The Bakerloo was, iirr, supposed to be the first to get the New Tube For London due to the condition of the 1972 Mk 2s, but their condition became so poor that they couldn't wait and they've just had another round of heavy 10-year-life-extension work. Not sure if the programme is finished or still ongoing. With the result that the line has dropped down the queue for the NTFL behind the Piccadilly and possibly the Central as well.

Just been pointed towards TfL's business plan which says "replacement 2027-30 **subject to funding**", so some in service past their sixtieth birthday could still be on the cards.

 

[physics34]

Well, the Southern classes 455/8 and 313 have been going for around 40 years. It is surely time to retire these rolling stock?

There will be replacement options available soon, im not sure if there is a plan but there are plenty of rumours. When GAs 379s go off lease (making them avaliable to GN) and SWRs 701s are fully available we may see some kind of movement then

 

[Sutton in Ant]

There will be replacement options available soon, im not sure if there is a plan but there are plenty of rumours. When GAs 379s go off lease (making them avaliable to GN) and SWRs 701s are fully available we may see some kind of movement then

Well. GN are rumored to get class 379s when it leaves GA and the class 387s that GN are using are going to be moving to Southern.

 

[physics34]

Well. GN are rumored to get class 379s when it leaves GA and the class 387s that GN are using are going to be moving to Southern.

Yep thats the rumour ive heard.

 

[ScotGG]

There's 46 Class 455s with Southern but only 38 387s with Great Northern.

What makes up the gap?

Southern Metro serves areas of huge future housing growth too eg thousands of homes coming beside South Bermondsey station.

EDIT: They could get six from c2c?

How many Southern Metro trains do not run as the full eight carriages during busy times (formerly peak and now I'm not sure?!)

 

[D365]

There's 46 Class 455s with Southern but only 38 387s with Great Northern.

There’s a bit of slack within the 46 Cl455s that can be tightened once 387s are available.

 

[bramling]

There’s a bit of slack within the 46 Cl455s that can be tightened once 387s are available.

Whichever way one looks at it (and there's several permutations), the numbers don't add up without a quite substantial long-term slashing of peak services.

Even including 379s, which seems to be pretty much a certainty now, the only way a full 455 & 313 replacement can be made to work and maintaining anything like 2019 service levels is if something else is included in the mix, be that one or more of 377/5, 376 or return of 365 to GN.

379 to GN does allow the GN 387 fleet to be split though, a 50/50 split of the fleet could just about manage 313 replacement and maintaining the bulk of the GN peak extras, but not touching the 455s. This is what my money's on.

 

[D365]

Whichever way one looks at it (and there's several permutations), the numbers don't add up without a quite substantial long-term slashing of peak services.

Even including 379s, which seems to be pretty much a certainty now, the only way a full 455 & 313 replacement can be made to work and maintaining anything like 2019 service levels is if something else is included in the mix, be that one or more of 377/5, 376 or return of 365 to GN.

379 to GN does allow the GN 387 fleet to be split though, a 50/50 split of the fleet could just about manage 313 replacement and maintaining the bulk of the GN peak extras, but not touching the 455s. This is what my money's on.

This is what I'm hoping in the short term. Out of the 365s which have been scrapped, only one or two were in recent use.

Medium term, a wholescale replacement of the Southeastern metro/Networker fleet might free up some 377s in order to shuffle Electrostars between the GTR sub-brands and return the 387/2s to Gatwick Express.

 

[Scotrail314209]

I can definitely imagine ScotRail's 156s being needed in a lesser capacity as a result of increasing electrification across Southern Glasgow. No doubt Scotrail will keep them to strengthen other services, but will all of them really need to stay?

Same goes for the 318/320 and the 334s at a stretch. 318/320 are getting on now, and even with a refurbishment are starting to show their age a little bit. 334s are newer, but they were very similar to 458s when it comes to problems, and even today they do have issues such as being unable to run on Cathcart due to the overheating issue. It wouldn't surprise me if Scotrail eventually did a huge EMU order to oust the 318, 320 and 334 fleets in the one go.

 

[warwickshire]

This is what I'm hoping in the short term. Out of the 365s which have been scrapped, only one or two were in recent use.

Medium term, a wholescale replacement of the Southeastern metro/Networker fleet might free up some 377s in order to shuffle Electrostars between the GTR sub-brands and return the 387/2s to Gatwick Express.

365511. Is one off the 365s.

 

[warwickshire]

I can definitely imagine ScotRail's 156s being needed in a lesser capacity as a result of increasing electrification across Southern Glasgow. No doubt Scotrail will keep them to strengthen other services, but will all of them really need to stay?

Same goes for the 318/320 and the 334s at a stretch. 318/320 are getting on now, and even with a refurbishment are starting to show their age a little bit. 334s are newer, but they were very similar to 458s when it comes to problems, and even today they do have issues such as being unable to run on Cathcart due to the overheating issue. It wouldn't surprise me if Scotrail eventually did a huge EMU order to oust the 318, 320 and 334 fleets in the one go.

156s yes for another year or more.
Because the class 3502 from lnwr to replace has already been delayed until 2023 at the earliest due to 730s late.
Plus the training off the units as well.

 

[JonathanH]

Whichever way one looks at it (and there's several permutations), the numbers don't add up without a quite substantial long-term slashing of peak services.

There are a number of Southern services that aren't running and would be prime routes not to return in the future so replacing 46 455s and 19 313s seems well within reach of 29 387s moving to the operation and reorganisation of 377s. The idea of a return to 2019 service levels seems quite unlikely.

For all we know, the current level of timetable could be planned around the future fleet size.