New South Western franchise: Awarded to First/MTR

[EAD]

I know that, but the public and a stubborn minority on this forum don't.
The MTR involvement may deflect such criticism this time.
The CMA will probably take an interest though, if only to remind DfT who's boss.

Yes but just to point that if the jurisdictional thresholds are met then the CMA will look at all route and point to point overlap flows first then focus on the cross elasticity of demand (i.e. does it compete) and focus on the local and network effects where there is a clear overlap. You may be able to guess I am a competition lawyer. There is a good old OFT/Competition Commission transport methodology guidance out there which sets out how they approach it.

Back on railways as my name shows I use SWT everyday M-F. Not massively enthused and there is the usual bit of spin in the releases given the large upgrades on Waterloo are under way and will be in full swing this August to then allow 10 carriage trains on the suburbans. The 707 situation is odd though - only passed one in CLJ yard this evening. Does anyone actually really know what will happen with them or is it pure speculation.

 

[387star]

Presumably the diesel chandlers and romsey services remain

Southampton commutors do well out of those quite a posh commuting train

 

[swt_passenger]

Also I recall Reports that recommended Ringwood and the Fawley Branch opened for passengers yet no mention of these in this announcement.

Ringwood was on an ATOC wish list that was published and never heard of again.

Fawley has been all but ruled out by Hants County council. It wasn't in the Wessex route study, and it wasn't in the franchise ITT either. I don't think it was ever reasonable to expect any mention of either, franchise changes are not the normal mechanism to announce reopening of lines...

The last Lymington to Brockenhurst train of the day crosses over and terminates in P1, as could a through train, but I wonder if DfT are simply saying the service will start up earlier in the morning...

 

[Juniper Driver]

And power supply.

Yup,they are forever upgrading that.

 

[Eastwestjct]

Generally underwhelming.

More "make do and mend" for the Southern Region (inc retaining the oldest stock on the network whilst reintroduced redundant 442s) whilst Northern and Transpennine get brand new trains

Seriously though, its pretty thin gruel. Possibly because there's not a lot of scope to increase/extend services, Stagecoach have already had any easy/simple/cheap improvements...

...a "connecting the region/ non-London" improvement (even if the Weymouth - Portsmouth service may not be a frequent one, it sounds good to have some visible improvement that isn't just about Waterloo)...

...whilst many of the suggestions for 158/159 replacement are fanciful, I could see the logic in the DfT micro-managing something new for the South Western to ensure that there would be more "common or garden" DMUs to spread around the remaining franchises (in the way that they arranged for dozens of Bombardier EMUs for Southern, which then allowed units to be cascaded to the Thames Valley/ C2C etc).

Other than that... feels like a missed opportunity. I may need a new signature though.



Is the Portsmouth - Weymouth going to be as regular as hourly?

Or could it be a token daily service (which people are assuming the frequency of)?



True - nobody working about monopolies or even a potential reduction in Waterloo - Bristol services (or at least an end to discounted fares on that route).

Or is all of the concern about monopolies just a problem if it allows people to complain about someone named "Beardie"?



Has anything been said about the remaining 442s? Half a dozen aren't being taken on by this new franchise, but would it be a case of discarding the six in worst condition? (or have I missed someone else's commitment to them... surely not the competing Open Access Waterloo service?)

alliance rail need 6 for there open access bid

 

[HH]

I have no love for Chelsea tractors, but just about every car is bigger, especially consider the classic Mini and it's modern day counterpart

Yes, I'm always pointing this out to people. It's a fact that every time a new model comes out they have to make it a little bigger than the last. The Corsa now is bigger than the Astra I had 30 years ago.

 

[HH]

The 707 situation is odd though - only passed one in CLJ yard this evening. Does anyone actually really know what will happen with them or is it pure speculation.

It's pure speculation. Unlike some people think, this is nothing at all to do with DfT. Bidders had a choice on much of the Rolling Stock and First/MTR chose not to keep the 707s. I suspect for cost reasons; just like Siemens lost the order at ScotRail.

What happens to the existing and already ordered units is just like happened to the 442s. They have nowhere to go until someone wants them. However, being third rail they have limited options:

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

If you are in a hurry to get that nice, expensive new rolling stock earning money for you, then there would appear to be only one game in town. I suppose they could be converted to OHL use, but that's expensive.

 

[Starmill]

It'd arguably make more sense to parcel all the 158s and 159s off to ATW to allow them to become a single-class-of-unit operation on their long-distance stuff but with adequate capacity (e.g. all North Wales Coast trains 4-car and all Brum-Aber trains 6-car with 4 to Aber and 2 to Pwllheli). I was surprised not to see them released for that kind of reason, though I suppose ATW isn't DfT's problem now.

And it will be almost impossible to prize them away from where they are now to send to SWT.

 

[BestWestern]

It's pure speculation. Unlike some people think, this is nothing at all to do with DfT. Bidders had a choice on much of the Rolling Stock and First/MTR chose not to keep the 707s. I suspect for cost reasons; just like Siemens lost the order at ScotRail.

What happens to the existing and already ordered units is just like happened to the 442s. They have nowhere to go until someone wants them. However, being third rail they have limited options:

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

If you are in a hurry to get that nice, expensive new rolling stock earning money for you, then there would appear to be only one game in town. I suppose they could be converted to OHL use, but that's expensive.

Which demonstrates the utter, utter nonsense of the whole system. As always, the waste is astounding.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

What happens to the existing and already ordered units is just like happened to the 442s. They have nowhere to go until someone wants them. However, being third rail they have limited options:

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

If you are in a hurry to get that nice, expensive new rolling stock earning money for you, then there would appear to be only one game in town. I suppose they could be converted to OHL use, but that's expensive.

Or perhaps you could do what most businesses will tend to do in that situation... try to minimise the loss by dropping your prices to a level where someone is willing to pay for them. But with the limited options, it's probably a buyer's market. If I was bidding for the new SouthEastern franchise, I'd probably be tempted to make a few phone calls to see if a mutually acceptable deal could be made and costed into the franchise offer. SouthEastern definitely needs some extra stock, and if they can be procured cheaply on the basis that no one else wants them...

 

[Roast Veg]

But for southeastern it's not going to be cheap, since they need a depot to house the 707s, which doesn't currently exist.

 

[JohnRegular]

It's just madness that the 707s would be dropped so soon. How much planning and development must have gone into getting them into service, just for them to be thrown by the wayside? If they're after a more homogenous fleet, then why start introducing 442s on long distance routes? Why not (other than the cost) order more 707s and operate them on the Portsmouth-Soton stopping services and free up a couple of extra 450s?

I have to admit I am not as familiar with many of the ins and outs of the SWT operation as many members here are, but merely from my point of view as a semi-regular passenger, Stagecoach have been doing a pretty good job. I don't personally see many good reasons to shake things up, although a Porstmouth-Weymouth service is definitely one I would use. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

 

[BestWestern]

I have to admit I am not as familiar with many of the ins and outs of the SWT operation as many members here are, but merely from my point of view as a semi-regular passenger, Stagecoach have been doing a pretty good job. I don't personally see many good reasons to shake things up, although a Porstmouth-Weymouth service is definitely one I would use. Guess we'll have to wait and see.

A Pompey - Weymouth might be completely useless if it stops everywhere. If they want to run it as a second Soton stopper then you'd still be better off using the GWR and changing!

 

[Suraggu]

A Pompey - Weymouth might be completely useless if it stops everywhere. If they want to run it as a second Soton stopper then you'd still be better off using the GWR and changing!

One wonders if the Waterloo -Weymouth stopping patterns will be recast with the new service, or will the Poole service omit stops west of Soton and this new service is all stops after Soton.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

How well does the existing Soton-Pompey SWT's service tie in with the ferry departure times (cat to Ryde and x-channel ferries - allowing time to get through passport control, etc)?

 

[urpert]

The cross-channel ferries are a lengthy bus or taxi ride away so I'm not sure it's really possible to speak of a 'connection'.

 

[yorksrob]

But for southeastern it's not going to be cheap, since they need a depot to house the 707s, which doesn't currently exist.

Chart Leacon is pretty underused at the moment, although it is way out in Ashford.

 

[yorksrob]

It'd arguably make more sense to parcel all the 158s and 159s off to ATW to allow them to become a single-class-of-unit operation on their long-distance stuff but with adequate capacity (e.g. all North Wales Coast trains 4-car and all Brum-Aber trains 6-car with 4 to Aber and 2 to Pwllheli). I was surprised not to see them released for that kind of reason, though I suppose ATW isn't DfT's problem now.

It's the 707s I don't get, there has to be a different plan for them in the DfT's mind.

Indeed. The 158/9 fleet on SW Trains is large and fairly homogenous, therefore it would make sense to break up a smaller, less integrated fleet elsewhere to bolster this one.

 

[AndyW33]

How well does the existing Soton-Pompey SWT's service tie in with the ferry departure times (cat to Ryde and x-channel ferries - allowing time to get through passport control, etc)?

The UK doesn't have passport control for passengers leaving the country.
Brittany Ferries inspects passports at Portsmouth at the same time they inspect tickets, to make sure the passenger is entitled to enter France/Spain, and feeds the passport/EU ID card info back to the Immigration Service as well.

You don't even need a passport to travel from Portsmouth to the Channel Islands, or the Isle of Wight for that matter.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Which demonstrates the utter, utter nonsense of the whole system. As always, the waste is astounding.

It's called competition, that the CMA complained was lacking when the SRA/DfT determined rolling stock allocations.
The ROSCOs take a haircut or cut their prices.
It's only when you have a surplus that the market works properly.

 

[The Ham]

Does it say anywhere that the 707s are leaving the franchise? Is it just that we have read between the lines and assumed that add they are no longer going to be used on London Metro services that they won't be staying at the franchise. Could it not be that they get relocated to run other services where even after fitting a loo they will provide extra capacity than the trains they replace.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

alliance rail need 6 for there open access bid

That's a bit left field!
They promised to introduce 125mph tilting stock for the Euston-Blackpool service.
Not much chance of adapting 6x DC-only 100mph 442s ("in the worst condition") to do that.

 

[Kite159]

A prediction, the existing Waterloo - Poole stopping service will be cut back to terminate at Southampton, with the path being used by that new Portsmouth - Weymouth stopper, with stops being removed from one of the Waterloo - Weymouth services to speed it up (with the stops passing to the stopper).

i.e. the fast Weymouth will be something like Waterloo - Basingstoke - Winchester - Southampton Airport - Southampton - Brockenhurst - Bournemouth - Poole - Dorchester - Weymouth

 

[HH]

Does it say anywhere that the 707s are leaving the franchise? Is it just that we have read between the lines and assumed that add they are no longer going to be used on London Metro services that they won't be staying at the franchise. Could it not be that they get relocated to run other services where even after fitting a loo they will provide extra capacity than the trains they replace.

They're leaving the franchise. The number of new units quoted would be larger if they stayed. Anyway it would take more than a loo to make them suitable for main line running.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

90 trains, but 750 carriages according to that. So they're going to be long trains.

75x8-car + 15x10-car = 90 trains and 750 cars.
Nice round numbers. No idea if this is likely.

 

[HH]

That's a bit left field!
They promised to introduce 125mph tilting stock for the Euston-Blackpool service.
Not much chance of adapting 6x DC-only 100mph 442s ("in the worst condition") to do that.

It's not left field at all. They said they wanted 6 for a Waterloo service. Not that there's any chance of them getting it.

 

[HH]

Or perhaps you could do what most businesses will tend to do in that situation... try to minimise the loss by dropping your prices to a level where someone is willing to pay for them.

Er, that's what I already said I thought they would have to do. Not exactly the best place to bargain from, but beggars can't be choosers and all that.

 

[Bletchleyite]

1. South Western; seems the horse has bolted on that one.
2. Southern; has pretty much all new rolling stock as is; possibly next franchise, but that's a way off;
3. South Eastern; coming up for bidding real soon now.

Isn't GTR a management contract? If so the DfT can make them do what it likes provided it coughs up.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Could happen yet. GWR ordered way more than the DfT spec as did TPE place orders too. First clearly favour the 802s and part of the mule will be cleared for GWR diverts. Wont be too difficult extending the clearance across 3rd rail territory, which may then start the ball rolling for XC. Factory capacity may be an issue tho...

All the First Group options on 802s have now been used up (on GWR, TPE and HT).

 

[Bletchleyite]

All the First Group options on 802s have now been used up (on GWR, TPE and HT).

Doesn't mean a new order wouldn't be possible.