There is one major failing on your first point, you cannot deal with job security and future of their current members if ALL want to stay in the same employ of the railway on the same money and T&Cs. The whole idea is to reduce the headcount and save money and there is only one to do that and to put it bluntly and that is to get rid. There is never a nice way no matter how much its dressed up to say tat tah we dont want or need you anymore.
In practice, though, that won't happen:
- Some will be due to retire over the next few years and will, depending when it is, be replaced either with someone on a short term contract or, if the FLIRTs have started arriving, not be replaced.
- Some will choose to apply to become drivers as the same natural attrition occurs there (most Merseyrail drivers are former guards, I believe)
- Some will choose to apply to become drivers or guards at Northern, VTWC, son-of-LM etc. Northern will not be 100% DOO for a long time if at all - converting 15x is not viable, and that is the mainstay of the fleet - if there is any DOO on Northern it will be the new stock only.
- Some will see the big change coming and decide that's the time for them to have a career change or early retirement if the voluntary packages are good enough
- Some will be happy to become platform staff or whatever other staff are being added to replace some of the role
Exactly how many that leaves over is an interesting question, of course, and how those can be deployed while they wish to continue in the railway's employment. And that specifically (plus the packages for retirement/voluntary redundancy) is what I believe the unions should be primarily concerning themselves with.
I am happy for you that you think DOO is the future.
On Merseyrail I believe it is, yes, just as it is on the Metropolitan Line. There really is very little difference...well, there is one...Merseyrail will be level boarding, no gap and wheelchair accessible at most stations (a few of the stations aren't accessible at all e.g. Aughton Park), so no ramp needed and nobody needing to get it out.
FWIW, I also think DOO will mean more dispatchers in places...