Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[gareth950]

Indeed its "please can you run a train every hour from Cardiff to Holyhead" not "the Welsh Government commands you to run a train every hour from Cardiff to Holyhead"

Yes but will TfW favour any bid that does include hourly Cardiff - Holyhead, even if it isn't the best overall bid?

 

[Dai Corner]

Yes but will TfW favour any bid that does include hourly Cardiff - Holyhead, even if it isn't the best overall bid?

Or perhaps bidders will say something like 'We suggest the additional trains go to Liverpool as that is where our research says people want to go. We can send them to Holyhead but we expect that will bring in less revenue and cost more to operate so it will increase the subsidy required. Your call."?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Or perhaps bidders will say something like 'We suggest the additional trains go to Liverpool as that is where our research says people want to go. We can send them to Holyhead but we expect that will bring in less revenue and cost more to operate so it will increase the subsidy required. Your call."?

Teddywillcome out of pram especially as they can't send the current qty of end door older DMU's toManchester to pay for it.

 

[daikilo]

Yes but will TfW favour any bid that does include hourly Cardiff - Holyhead, even if it isn't the best overall bid?

If TfW rules are like DfT rules then add-ons must be in addition to meeting basic requirements. If the basic bid is not the best overall then justifying the add-on will be very difficult and probably impossible.

I cannot see how connecting up shorter services between Cardiff and Holyhead could lead to a viable operation especially as say at least Llandudno Junction to Holyhead taken with other existing services would be gross oversupply.

 

[Gareth Marston]

If TfW rules are like DfT rules then add-ons must be in addition to meeting basic requirements. If the basic bid is not the best overall then justifying the add-on will be very difficult and probably impossible.

I cannot see how connecting up shorter services between Cardiff and Holyhead could lead to a viable operation especially as say at least Llandudno Junction to Holyhead taken with other existing services would be gross oversupply.

The North Wales Public sector lobby whine about having to stop anywhere between Wrexham and Newport as it is.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Cardiff-Holyhead just doesn't reflect the travel patterns of anyone except WAG members.

Run the WAG Express for them, once a day each way, and make everything else reflect actual travel patterns, i.e. revert to the pre-ATW network, sending North Wales expresses to Crewe, not Cardiff. (No paths on the WCML to send them to New St like they used to).

 

[Envoy]

I can understand the WAG wanting to unite Wales with direct trains to/from Cardiff - whilst obviously realising that main passenger flows from the west are towards England. Could the Cardiff to Holyhead (via Wrexham) trains not split at Chester with one section going to Liverpool via the Halton Curve?

 

[Philip]

Perhaps a good and realistic compromise could be for an hourly all-stations service between Cardiff and Chester via Wrexham, with trains continuing to Holyhead on a two-hourly basis and alternating with a bi-hourly Crewe to Holyhead (itself an extension of a second hourly Crewe-Chester shuttle, making three trains per hour between Crewe and Chester)?

Liverpool to Shrewsbury/Cardiff via Chester doesn't seem logical since it'll reduce reliability on the Liverpool-Chester-Wrexham corridor for a through journey which would be quicker changing at Crewe for.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Perhaps a good and realistic compromise could be for an hourly all-stations service between Cardiff and Chester via Wrexham, with trains continuing to Holyhead on a two-hourly basis and alternating with a bi-hourly Crewe to Holyhead (itself an extension of a second hourly Crewe-Chester shuttle, making three trains per hour between Crewe and Chester)?

Come on providing trains to where people want to go? Linking two city regions with each other? You'll never get a job in Government such heresy.

 

[Philip]

Come on providing trains to where people want to go? Linking two city regions with each other? You'll never get a job in Government such heresy.

I bet if the Welsh Government had its way then we'd have three trains per hour for Cardiff to Holyhead!

As for Manchester-South Wales, I'd like to see it sped up but would it be worth adding Nantwich to the hourly pattern, at the expense of a few of the smaller stations between Shrewsbury and Cardiff?

 

[northwichcat]

i.e. revert to the pre-ATW network, sending North Wales expresses to Crewe, not Cardiff. (No paths on the WCML to send them to New St like they used to).

With the intention being for W&B to run an hourly Liverpool-Runcorn-Chester service and to look at possible Welsh destinations to send it to what about:
2 hourly Holyhead-Cardiff
2 hourly Holyhead-Liverpool
2 hourly Cardiff-Liverpool via Chester

All interworked so Chester-Cardiff is hourly, Holyhead-Chester is hourly and Liverpool-Chester is hourly?

I wonder how the WG would score a bidder who submitted that as a proposal over one who has submitted a bid for hourly Holyhead-Cardiff and running Chester-Liverpool as an extension of the Wrexham service?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Any Holyhead-Cardiff train beyond one pair per day is a waste of space. A political construct that bears no resemblence to where people actually want to go.

I'd go:
- Hourly Holyhead to Crewe - all stations to the Junction then semifast. 5 or 6 car 175.
- Hourly Llandudno to Manchester portion worked with a Liverpool portion detached at Chester. 5 car 175 with 2 on the Liverpool portion, 3 to Manchester.
- Hourly Cardiff to Chester. 2 or 3 car of whatever.

plus perhaps a "fill in" Chester to Holyhead or Bangor to Holyhead in the VTWC path (same stops as VTWC) in the hours they don't use it to keep it fully consistent. The long term ideal would be an hourly WCML train.

The Crewe shuttle would be withdrawn.

Liverpool-Chester is of no importance in its own right because people will just use Merseyrail because it's frequent and easy to use if a bit slow. The significance is the service beyond Chester to North Wales which has a very significant travel demand from Liverpool. If they're just going to run it to Chester they may as well not bother.

 

[northwichcat]

Any Holyhead-Cardiff train beyond one pair per day is a waste of space. A political construct that bears no resemblence to where people actually want to go.

While I don't think Holyhead needs a regular Cardiff service, how many services Wrexham needs to places on the North Wales coast line is also worth considering - Birmingham to North Wales is only 2 hourly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

While I don't think Holyhead needs a regular Cardiff service, how many services Wrexham needs to places on the North Wales coast line is also worth considering - Birmingham to North Wales is only 2 hourly.

Fair point. It would be an option to portion work it onto the Coast from Birmingham rather than run the whole train through to Crewe, as I'd propose that no service going onto the Coast would do so as a single unit.

Though I don't know how important those Birmingham through trains are. They were put there as a sop to losing the service via the WCML, but with a proper through Crewe service I'd just change at Crewe, it'd be loads quicker.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I bet if the Welsh Government had its way then we'd have three trains per hour for Cardiff to Holyhead!

As for Manchester-South Wales, I'd like to see it sped up but would it be worth adding Nantwich to the hourly pattern, at the expense of a few of the smaller stations between Shrewsbury and Cardiff?

Nantwich is only 35 miles from Manchester (57 from Birmingham via CRE) and has a population of 17,500 making it the 4th largest settlement after Shrewsbury/Hereford/Cwmbran between Newport & Crewe- the hourly Manchester trains should all stop there. It has the best potential for traffic growth.
Whitchurch is 45 miles from Manchester (61 from Birmingham via SHR) and has a population of 9,800.
Wem is 53 miles from Manchester (53 from Birmingham via SHR) and has a population of 5,142.
Shrewsbury is 63 miles from Manchester (43 from Birmingham) and has a population of 72,000.
Church Stretton is 76 miles from Manchester (56 from Birmingham) and has a population of 4,670.
Craven Arms is 83 miles from Manchester (63 from Birmingham) and has a population of 2,289.
Ludlow is 91 miles from Manchester (71 from Birmingham via SHR, 79 from Cardiff) and has a population of 11,000.
Leominster is 103 miles from Manchester (67 from Cardiff, 66 miles to Birmingham via Hereford) and has a population of 11,700.
Hereford is 114 miles from Manchester (56 from Cardiff, 55 miles to Birmingham) and has a population of 72,000.
Abergavenny is 139 miles from Manchester (31 from Cardiff) and has a population of 12,515.
Ponytpool & New Inn is 149 miles from Manchester (21 from Cardiff) and New Inn has a population of 3,000.
Cwmbran is 152 miles from Manchester (18 from Cardiff) and has a population of 48,535.

 

[Philip]

I think it'd be better keeping the local shuttles as they are, the Crewe-Chester one for example is reliable and thus very useful both for local journeys and anyone heading to Chester from the south. Having Crewe to Chester and Chester to Liverpool starting back in Cardiff or similar would just be asking for increased delays on routes which already are/could be very punctual.

In addition to my idea for the Crewe/Cardiff to Holyhead hourly, I'd go with an hourly Liverpool to Chester, then splitting with one half to Llandudno all stations, the other to Wrexham. For the Manchester trains I'd say an hourly semi-fast to Bangor would work well, with occasional trains carrying on to Holyhead, like the London trains do.

Just seen above, so really the ideal would be Nantwich, Shrewsbury, Ludlow, Leominster and Hereford with perhaps some peak extras serving Whitchurch, Abergavenny and Cwmbran. Reckon the WAG would probably prefer the Holyhead to have the 'faster' stopping pattern though.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The thing is, a Liverpool to Chester via Halton Curve service will carry lots and lots of fresh air. People would use a direct Liverpool to North Wales Coast service (the demand there is very significant). If they have to change, they'll just use Merseyrail - for almost everybody it's far simpler and more frequent. An hourly service won't win over a 15 minute frequency service if you've got 59 minutes to wait, nor if you've got (from the Northern Line) a 10 minute walk between Central and Lime St or an extra change. (FWIW, most people walk).

It has to go onto the Coast for there to be any point bothering at all.

As for the Chester-Crewe shuttle, it's just a nuisance additional change which the majority of passengers have to make for nothing other than political ends.

The 1998 FNW service pattern far more reflected passenger needs.

 

[craigybagel]

I'd go:
- Hourly Holyhead to Crewe - all stations to the Junction then semifast. 5 or 6 car 175.

That won't work I'm afraid - some of request stops on the coast are local door only, and doing that with two units with no access between the two is fraught with difficulties.

 

[Bletchleyite]

That won't work I'm afraid - some of request stops on the coast are local door only, and doing that with two units with no access between the two is fraught with difficulties.

I think with proper PIS people will cope. Or failing that lock the 2-car set out at the Junction; the eastern part is the busiest by far.

 

[craigybagel]

I think with proper PIS people will cope. Or failing that lock the 2-car set out at the Junction; the eastern part is the busiest by far.

If you're going to lock the set out (which is almost certainly what would end up happening) you might as well remove it altogether, and save dragging an empty unit 50 miles each way along the coast.

 

[Envoy]

Nantwich is only 35 miles from Manchester (57 from Birmingham via CRE) and has a population of 17,500 making it the 4th largest settlement after Shrewsbury/Hereford/Cwmbran between Newport & Crewe- the hourly Manchester trains should all stop there. It has the best potential for traffic growth.
Whitchurch is 45 miles from Manchester (61 from Birmingham via SHR) and has a population of 9,800.
Wem is 53 miles from Manchester (53 from Birmingham via SHR) and has a population of 5,142.
Shrewsbury is 63 miles from Manchester (43 from Birmingham) and has a population of 72,000.
Church Stretton is 76 miles from Manchester (56 from Birmingham) and has a population of 4,670.
Craven Arms is 83 miles from Manchester (63 from Birmingham) and has a population of 2,289.
Ludlow is 91 miles from Manchester (71 from Birmingham via SHR, 79 from Cardiff) and has a population of 11,000.
Leominster is 103 miles from Manchester (67 from Cardiff, 66 miles to Birmingham via Hereford) and has a population of 11,700.
Hereford is 114 miles from Manchester (56 from Cardiff, 55 miles to Birmingham) and has a population of 72,000.
Abergavenny is 139 miles from Manchester (31 from Cardiff) and has a population of 12,515.
Ponytpool & New Inn is 149 miles from Manchester (21 from Cardiff) and New Inn has a population of 3,000.
Cwmbran is 152 miles from Manchester (18 from Cardiff) and has a population of 48,535.

Whilst town populations are of relevance, what is also important is number of visitors to a town because it has attractions and the hinterland it serves. For example, Ludlow might only have a population of 11,000 but is likely to attract a number of non resident visitors due to its castle and historic buildings. Abergavenny, whilst only having 12,515 population draws people from a considerable hinterland. For example, it is the nearest railhead to Crickhowell and Brecon whilst also having road links to the Heads of the Valleys - which should have a co-ordinated bus service to meet the trains. (Surely, nobody from Ebbw Vale, Merthyr etc. would go all the way down to Newport or Cardiff to catch a train that ends up on The Marches Line)?

Another factor to take into account is the junction at Craven Arms with the Heart of Wales Line. Surely, the previous northbound service on The Marches should stop at CRV prior to a southbound HoW whilst after the arrival at CRV of a northbound HoW train, the next southbound Marches train should make a stop? I would also like to point out that where a station is on a fast section of track, the added time to an express service making a stop would be greater than for a station where through trains have a low speed. Leominster would be such a station where I think the speed limit is 90mph?

 

[Gareth Marston]

A lot will also boil down to whether there will be any change in London services - at the moment Leominster/Ludlow to London flows are normally pushed via Crewe or occasionally Birmingham by journey planners as quicker but going to Newport and into Paddington avoids VTWC pretend peak price gouging is cheaper and more flexible so most Marches to London trips head south. This is often the big reason that local groups on the Marches are quite vehement about there stations being on the stops for the Manchester to Cardiff trains.

If Shrewsbury had a better service than 2 direct trains a day this may attract more to go that way.

 

[Llanigraham]

I will agree with Gareth on that one. I know several people who now drive to Ludlow from this area of Mid Wales to catch trains to London. Often the reason is they can leave London later in the day and still guarentee to get home, since there are later trains north from Newport than the last train down the Cambrian from Shrewsbury.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I will agree with Gareth on that one. I know several people who now drive to Ludlow from this area of Mid Wales to catch trains to London. Often the reason is they can leave London later in the day and still guarentee to get home, since there are later trains north from Newport than the last train down the Cambrian from Shrewsbury.

The last connection for Ludlow is 1922 from Paddington not a whole lot later than the 1843 from Euston for Aberystwyth. There are some who go to Shrewsbury where you can leave Euston via Crewe as late as 2110 and via BHM 2140. However whilst both these times are off peak getting to London on an off peak train priced train from Shrewsbury is not possible until after 1200.

 

[northwichcat]

So even TfGM don't know the contents of the ITT.

Transport for Wales have issued the final Invitation To Tender (ITT) to the bidders. The ITT is not being shared with the public or other stakeholders on the grounds of commercial sensitivity, therefore we cannot state what impact it may have on services to Greater Manchester. We understand from previous discussions that there is a restriction on no increase in service frequency on the routes into Greater Manchester, but we are not aware of any minimum requirements. We understand that bids are to be submitted by the end of the year, with a planned franchise start date of October 2018. The incumbent bidder, Arriva has pulled out of the bidding competition, leaving 3 other bidders (KeolisAmey; MTR; and Abellio), therefore there will be a change of operator when the new franchise commences.

 

[Gareth Marston]

So even TfGM don't know the contents of the ITT.

don't worry it gets worse, Grayling has apparently given his support for half hourly trains between North Shropshire and Manchester Airport and Shrewsbury and BHM INTL...

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/transport/2017/12/01/mp-pleased-with-train-talks/

Owen Paterson MP for North Shropshire met with transport secretary Chris Grayling on the eve of his parliamentary speech in which he pledged to shake-up the country's rail services.

Mr Paterson, who is campaigning for an extension of the London to Shrewsbury direct train service north and better links between Shropshire and regional airports, said he met with Mr Grayling on Tuesday.

"He gave his full support to my campaign for a 30 minute service from Shrewsbury to Manchester Airport and Shrewsbury to Birmingham airport to be included in the new Wales & Borders rail franchise," Mr Paterson said.

"I am now to contact Welsh Assembly minister, Ken Skates, as a matter of urgency, to get him on board," he said.

So despite Schedule 4 of the Agreement that says the SoS cannot support bids beyond service levels specified in it which are 1 tph from SHR to BHM INTL and 1 SHR to MAN no mention if airport.

Is Grayling utterly clueless about whats already been legally agreed in his name?
Is Grayling setting up Pattinson to fail?
Are they both setting the scene to blame the Welsh Government when it doesn't happen?

 

[eisenach]

A lot will also boil down to whether there will be any change in London services - at the moment Leominster/Ludlow to London flows are normally pushed via Crewe or occasionally Birmingham by journey planners as quicker but going to Newport and into Paddington avoids VTWC pretend peak price gouging is cheaper and more flexible so most Marches to London trips head south. This is often the big reason that local groups on the Marches are quite vehement about there stations being on the stops for the Manchester to Cardiff trains.

If Shrewsbury had a better service than 2 direct trains a day this may attract more to go that way.

My children live and work in London. They're quite canny about getting good prices when they come home for a week-end (to Leominster). It usually involves LM from Euston to BHm (though if they can plan far enough ahead there can be some good Virgin deals), then on via Shrewsbury to Leo. Via Newport it's quite a bit more expensive. Bhm via Hfd is longer. I've offered to pick them up from Kidderminster so they can use Chiltern, but that's usually more expensive.
The London end makes a difference. Euston is much quicker and easier from Stoke Newington than Paddington.
I'd be hard pressed to get as good a deal, I must say. It seems you need to know your tickets !

 

[Gareth Marston]

Using LM is niche though, most people will throw their hands in the air in horror at the extended journey times if you suggest it. Likewise with Chiltern the Super Off Peak Return @ £39.70 from Newtown to Marylebone is probably the best bargain flexible long distance fare in the UK - yet I see plenty of folk tie themselves in knots over going to Euston - "it has to be Euston its had to be Virgin". The £68.00 Off Peak (in reality only restriction is no departure Euston pre 0905 weekdays - no evening peak restrictions!) from Newtown is probably the best bargain flexible long distance fare out of Euston with Virgin.

 

[gareth950]

don't worry it gets worse, Grayling has apparently given his support for half hourly trains between North Shropshire and Manchester Airport and Shrewsbury and BHM INTL...

https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/transport/2017/12/01/mp-pleased-with-train-talks/


So despite Schedule 4 of the Agreement that says the SoS cannot support bids beyond service levels specified in it which are 1 tph from SHR to BHM INTL and 1 SHR to MAN no mention if airport.

1. Is Grayling utterly clueless about whats already been legally agreed in his name?
2. Is Grayling setting up Pattinson to fail?
3. Are they both setting the scene to blame the Welsh Government when it doesn't happen?

Answers:
1. Most probably
2. Unlikely, more likely is the answer to 3, which is.....
3. Most definitely. That's been the story of this franchise renewal process between the two governments since the very start.
Don't let facts get in the way of some political point scoring.

 

[Envoy]

Anybody going from Leominster to London for the day and paying on the day, may find that it is cheaper to do this:> LEO>HFD Anytime return = £7.60. Hereford (HFD)> OXFord anytime return = £23.50 plus OXF > London return = £25.70. TOTAL = £56.80 return. (A Leominster to Oxford return bought as a through ticket would be £51.40. So, by splitting the ticket at Hereford, somebody going just from LEO to OXF and back and paying on the day, saves a whopping £20.30).