EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Xenophon PCDGS]

No thanks. I like things and variety the way they are.

Of course you do. However, my posting response was to the person who made reference to the called song of the yellowhammer bird.

 

[thejuggler]

How are we supposed to take this bunch seriously when a Government Minister tells all that this official Government report leaked today is part of project fear and scaremongering?

Does he know it was his staff which wrote it?

I am amazed anyone is willing to work in the Civil Service if this is how their lords and masters treat their work.

 

[Bantamzen]

How are we supposed to take this bunch seriously when a Government Minister tells all that this official Government report leaked today is part of project fear and scaremongering?

Does he know it was his staff which wrote it?

I am amazed anyone is willing to work in the Civil Service if this is how their lords and masters treat their work.

It unfortunately is not uncommon in the public sector these days. And it is probably why the paper was leaked in the first place.

 

[DerekC]

Just been watching Bullsh*t Boris on the 6pm news (I really should know better).

His latest is that "we will be ready" to leave with no deal on 31st October - but as usual his words sound good but evaporate to nothing on exposure to thought. What on earth does he mean? My guess is "press releases ready to blame Teresa May, the EU, Labour and anyone else outside the magic circle for the increases in price, loss of jobs and localised chaos which is inevitably going to happen".

Of course all that actually matters to him is to win the election which seems likely to follow very quickly - and Mr Corbyn (although I would nominate him least worst of the two) just isn't going to be good enough to beat him.

 

[Billy A]

A guess: To not confuse the country Ireland with the island Ireland?

Everybody else (Sweden included...) seems to manage!

 

[najaB]

Everybody else (Sweden included...) seems to manage!

Not everyone else has the history that the UK does though. If a Swede gets things wrong it's just a mistake. If a Brit gets it wrong then was it a mistake?

 

[JonasB]

Everybody else (Sweden included...) seems to manage!

True, it's usually not a problem here. But on the other hand, we really don't talk as much about Ireland.

 

[AntoniC]

How are we supposed to take this bunch seriously when a Government Minister tells all that this official Government report leaked today is part of project fear and scaremongering?

Does he know it was his staff which wrote it?

I am amazed anyone is willing to work in the Civil Service if this is how their lords and masters treat their work.

I am a Civil Servant (of many years) and I can predict what will happen if it all goes wrong after 31st October.
The Prime Minister will state "My Government had all these plans to ensure Brexit went well and we have been let down by the Civil Service".
The Daily Hail will then run stories blaiming the incompentant Civil Service while studiously ignoring the fact that the Civil Service has been slashed under ALL Governments under the last few years.
I was and still am a Remainer BUT we voted to Leave and so thats what we must do - it doesnt help that the previous Tory Govt did tap all to prepare over the last 2 years.

 

[Bantamzen]

I am a Civil Servant (of many years) and I can predict what will happen if it all goes wrong after 31st October.
The Prime Minister will state "My Government had all these plans to ensure Brexit went well and we have been let down by the Civil Service".
The Daily Hail will then run stories blaiming the incompentant Civil Service while studiously ignoring the fact that the Civil Service has been slashed under ALL Governments under the last few years.
I was and still am a Remainer BUT we voted to Leave and so thats what we must do - it doesnt help that the previous Tory Govt did tap all to prepare over the last 2 years.

Sadly this is almost a 100% guarantee, so much so I would normally advise putting your house on this certain bet where it not for the fact that the bookies would now be giving terrible odds.

Its been clear ever since the BoJoBot bluffed his way into power that he had no intention of working for a deal, but was instead taking on his Trans-Atlantic pal's modus operandum of blaming practically everyone else when things start to go south. Of course in case the Civil Service lies directly in the path of this blame, after they didn't do any work on worst case scenarios did they, well except for Yellowhammer of course. But that doesn't count because it was just scaremongering, wasn't it?

For the first time in the three years after the referendum, I genuinely fear for this country's future. We are hurtling head first towards the solid wall of a no deal scenario, and all the hardcore Brexiteers can come up with is "This is fine". I could just about have accepted a controlled, amicable departure from the EU, with free trade and movement agreements in place to ensure that we don't leave ourselves hamstrung for decades. But this debacle is totally unacceptable, no deal is simply the worst case scenario by some distance, and anyone doubting this now needs to have a serious word with themselves at best.

I've been saying it time and again, we need to reset the whole process with hindsight as our ally. If after another, more detailed referendum on the issue where we mandate the government to a particular route out, there is still a majority to leave then so be it. Sadly again though, the drooling lunatics still screaming "Brexit means Brexit" & demanding a do or die approach now have to be ignored & told to sit down & shut up. The time of playground politics is over, and we need some adults to take over.

 

[edwin_m]

I was and still am a Remainer BUT we voted to Leave and so thats what we must do.

Why? It's pretty clear three years on that it's going to be nothing like what the Leave campaigners promised, and most surveys now show a majority in favour of remaining. If this was electing a government then we'd have a chance to get rid of it within five years, but apparently not for something that will affect us for far longer. There is the argument of civil unrest by frustrated Leavers but no deal is quite likely to lead to civil unrest anyway.

Surely now is the time to stand up for what's right, face down the scammers and the bullies and say that we are a part of Europe not an island of little Englanders drifting in the Atlantic storms?

 

[thejuggler]

Now the angle is a document negotiated and agreed by two democratically appointed organisations has become undemocratic.

How democratic is it to have Dominic Cummings writing these letters?

 

[dosxuk]

What's undemocratic is to claim that we have to leave with no deal because the government has failed to agree a settlement with the EU, despite everyone proposing that we leave telling us there was no chance of any of the no deal issues becoming reality.

I can't think of another example of a country ever deliberately causing itself so much economic and trade harm as we are expecting to face (and that's "expecting", not "fearing"). There's planning to introduce rationing if needed. We're expecting to close schools down in Kent because of traffic. We're expecting people to die due to lack of medication. We're expecting to have to cancel police holidays due to rioting and looting because of food shortages. It's utter madness.

But a big part of me now just wants us to get on with it. I expect a no-deal result to be both boris and corbyn to be out of office within 6 months, and a new government, probably a coalition, trying to hold things together while fast-tracking being readmitted to the EU. I suspect that negotiation to be fast, it would just be whether we join as new members or welcomed back with most (but not all) of our current benefits.

 

[YorkshireBear]

What's undemocratic is to claim that we have to leave with no deal because the government has failed to agree a settlement with the EU, despite everyone proposing that we leave telling us there was no chance of any of the no deal issues becoming reality.

I can't think of another example of a country ever deliberately causing itself so much economic and trade harm as we are expecting to face (and that's "expecting", not "fearing"). There's planning to introduce rationing if needed. We're expecting to close schools down in Kent because of traffic. We're expecting people to die due to lack of medication. We're expecting to have to cancel police holidays due to rioting and looting because of food shortages. It's utter madness.

But a big part of me now just wants us to get on with it. I expect a no-deal result to be both boris and corbyn to be out of office within 6 months, and a new government, probably a coalition, trying to hold things together while fast-tracking being readmitted to the EU. I suspect that negotiation to be fast, it would just be whether we join as new members or welcomed back with most (but not all) of our current benefits.

There is absolutely no way they will let us back with current benefits in my view.

 

[Bantamzen]

Now the angle is a document negotiated and agreed by two democratically appointed organisations has become undemocratic.

How democratic is it to have Dominic Cummings writing these letters?

The phrase "undemocratic" has become the modern day version of "unpatriotic", designed to stir the hard core Brexiteers into a frenzy, whilst giving whatever leeway to themselves needed to ignore democratic processes whenever it suits them. For example it is undemocratic to try and stop a no deal scenario, no matter how it was dismissed in the early days by leave campaigners, but it will be perfectly democratic to try and shut Parliament down so that the no deal scenario cannot be properly debated before the October deadline.

 

[dosxuk]

There is absolutely no way they will let us back with current benefits in my view.

I can see us being allowed some concessions, e.g. keeping our opt-outs of the Euro and Schengen, provided the new administration doesn't do their best to piss off the EU like the current lot, particularly as it will help sell rejoining to what remains of the leavers and would give the EU themselves some decent positive press by being so generous.

Rebate and extra veto rights for being such a long standing member - they'll be gone straight away.

 

[Carlisle]

BUT we voted to Leave and so thats what we must do - it doesnt help that the previous Tory Govt did tap all to prepare over the last 2 years.

Ive barely ever heard even the most ardent remainer advocate scrapping Brexit altogether without winning a second vote, whereas the current govt seems to believe they’ve a automatic mandate to pursue no deal, without any further form of public consultation

 

[krus_aragon]

Ive barely ever heard even the most ardent remainer advocate scrapping Brexit altogether without winning a second vote, whereas the current govt seems to believe they’ve a automatic mandate to pursue no deal, without any further consultation

They do technically have a mandate from Parliament's authorisation to trigger Article 50, and the approval of the recent extension. But Parliament can change its mind and vote for something else too. The Government is only meant to be able to govern with the assent of Parliament (see motions of no confidence,etc).

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Donald Tusk appears to have responded to the request contained in the letter by Boris Johnson in the negative.

 

[AM9]

I would be surprised if there wasn't a dialogue underway between some heavyweight negotiators from the remain persuasion and key members of the EU to create a mechanism that would give the UK a rapid route back to something like we have now. If Johnson get's his dream followed by a rapid decline in the UK economy and broken supply lines, causing a public order breakdown; such a mechanism to bring some stability will be welcomed with open arms by all but the out and out maniac leavers and the speculators, (and of course the racist arms of the leave-promoting parties).

Donald Tusk appears to have responded to the request contained in the letter by Boris Johnson in the negative.

Maybe Johnson will acknowledge the EU's position if it is addressed to him, - he and his ilk can't say it is 'fake news' now.

 

[nlogax]

Maybe Johnson will acknowledge the EU's position if it is addressed to him, - he and his ilk can't say it is 'fake news' now.

My guess is he'll ignore it and, if questioned by the media, bury it under a metric s**t-ton of bluster as is his usual routine. Johnson is a human waffle.

 

[Carlisle]

They do technically have a mandate from Parliament's authorisation to trigger Article 50, and the approval of the recent extension. .

Yes, reluctantly the staunched Brexiteers probably deserve some credit for seemingly spotting very early on after triggering article 50, the opportunity to eventually impose a WTO Brexit due to the anticipated impasse & disagreements within the opposition & parliamentary process

 

[JamesT]

I would be surprised if there wasn't a dialogue underway between some heavyweight negotiators from the remain persuasion and key members of the EU to create a mechanism that would give the UK a rapid route back to something like we have now. If Johnson get's his dream followed by a rapid decline in the UK economy and broken supply lines, causing a public order breakdown; such a mechanism to bring some stability will be welcomed with open arms by all but the out and out maniac leavers and the speculators, (and of course the racist arms of the leave-promoting parties).

I'm not sure how much chance that has of flying. Thus far the EU position seems to have stuck to "we are an organisation built on rules, you can have an agreement within all the rules or not at all". It seems most likely they would insist on the Article 49 process for rejoining.
Related to this is the aim of preserving the union. Giving special favours to us by allowing to rejoin on our old deal may make other countries more likely to try and jump ship or negotiate their own special deals which would be resisted.

 

[krus_aragon]

Related to this is the aim of preserving the union.

Out of context, this could be true of two unions (the UK and the EU)!

 

[bramling]

I would be surprised if there wasn't a dialogue underway between some heavyweight negotiators from the remain persuasion and key members of the EU to create a mechanism that would give the UK a rapid route back to something like we have now. If Johnson get's his dream followed by a rapid decline in the UK economy and broken supply lines, causing a public order breakdown; such a mechanism to bring some stability will be welcomed with open arms by all but the out and out maniac leavers and the speculators, (and of course the racist arms of the leave-promoting parties).

Maybe Johnson will acknowledge the EU's position if it is addressed to him, - he and his ilk can't say it is 'fake news' now.

I’m not sure it would go that way. I’d say it’s more likely people would pull together and blame the EU, which would no doubt be the official narrative anyway. British people do generally pull together in a crisis. That’s if the prophecies of doom actually come to fruition - we’re already hearing language like “horrific”, which to me is a trifle emotive.

 

[najaB]

I’d say it’s more likely people would pull together...

Wow, and I suppose there may really be a Father Christmas.

 

[AM9]

I’m not sure it would go that way. I’d say it’s more likely people would pull together and blame the EU, which would no doubt be the official narrative anyway. British people do generally pull together in a crisis. That’s if the prophecies of doom actually come to fruition - we’re already hearing language like “horrific”, which to me is a trifle emotive.

I think that if things go badly, it will be some of the leavers who will cause problems, firstly because their track record reveals a more aggressive approach to protest and secondly because many of them come from areas that have voted to leave which will come off worst in the event of any large job losses.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

I'm not sure how much chance that has of flying. Thus far the EU position seems to have stuck to "we are an organisation built on rules, you can have an agreement within all the rules or not at all". It seems most likely they would insist on the Article 49 process for rejoining.
Related to this is the aim of preserving the union. Giving special favours to us by allowing to rejoin on our old deal may make other countries more likely to try and jump ship or negotiate their own special deals which would be resisted.

Except of course that this whole mess started because of the failure of Cameron and the EU to make the sort of meaningful changes that would have avoided any need for a referendum in the first place. And the referendum also avoided giving any voice to those who believe that Cameron should have tried harder.

 

[Struner]

??? No need to blame the EU for the mess you got yourself into.

 

[Howardh]

British people do generally pull together in a crisis.

Under normal circumstances, yes. But this time there's no chance, if there's no deal at all - likely - then that means I for one have had my freedom of movement, my EHIC, my consumer and worker's rights stolen from me in one go. Wouldn't mind so much if those of us still wanting to have our EU freedoms were offered some kind of pass, at cost of course, but allows us to keep what we're losing! Point being, I can't join in any "pulling together"; that's gone with the wind (EHIC, FoM etc etc) and I won't even be making the "best of it". HOWEVER if a new government, maybe a coalition, can start to untangle those red lines and we start to get some kind of working relationship with the EU in which we DO get to keep the good stuff but perhaps not pay in as much then, yes, I could go along with Brexit.
Example, if we joined Schengen so travellers had the easiest of passages - I'd take that in return for workers from the EU needing permits in advance (sort of thing) and vice-versa for us over there. Work and resident permits/visas can be checked at point of application rather than point of entry (ie a landlord would have to check your residents visa + ID card). And Schengen + staying in the custom's union should solve the Broder issue, and keep the US at arm's length.

 

[JonasB]

But a big part of me now just wants us to get on with it. I expect a no-deal result to be both boris and corbyn to be out of office within 6 months, and a new government, probably a coalition, trying to hold things together while fast-tracking being readmitted to the EU. I suspect that negotiation to be fast, it would just be whether we join as new members or welcomed back with most (but not all) of our current benefits.

Article 50 is quite clear on rejoining:

If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.