Exit strategy predictions

[yorkie]

Other than a vaccine or treatment, contact tracing, quarantining and testing are the only practical ways out.

But how would you actually implement contact tracing? It cannot be done in quite the same way that countries like Singapore do it.

I think that this particular point is probably best discussed in the https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...d-death-rate-of-covid-19.203500/#post-4538339 thread as it's already being discussed there.

From that thread:

The asympomatic level is important for contact tracing, which is one possible part of an exit strategy. If there are large numbers of them, then contact tracing all of them by manual means is impossible. Even tracing by app becomes more difficult because those without symptoms won't report themselves as potentially infected.

Or do you propose just letting it burn unchecked through the population with medical treatment not offered..

I think at the moment we don't really know enough about the virus to say what the solution - or set of solutions - will be, but I am becoming increasingly concerned that there may be no universally acceptable and/or practicable solution, unless there is a breakthrough soon....

 

[Bletchleyite]

But how would you actually implement contact tracing? It cannot be done in quite the same way that countries like Singapore do it.

I think there is quite a lot of potential in the anonymised mobile apps, using GPS and Bluetooth together (but not storing the location, just using it to "weed out" false matches) myself. It doesn't require full compliance, it just requires enough compliance. (I feel like I'm talking about the proposals I made a while ago for e-ticketing which were rubbished by many on the Forum because they didn't provide a perfect way of preventing fare evasion - turns out they were "good enough" as they pretty much came true).

I think compliance will be high if Google and Apple build it into their OS and make it the default (i.e. active opt-out), which sounds likely.

 

[yorkie]

I think there is quite a lot of potential in the anonymised mobile apps, using GPS and Bluetooth together (but not storing the location, just using it to "weed out" false matches) myself. It doesn't require full compliance, it just requires enough compliance. (I feel like I'm talking about the proposals I made a while ago for e-ticketing which were rubbished by many on the Forum because they didn't provide a perfect way of preventing fare evasion - turns out they were "good enough" as they pretty much came true).

I think compliance will be high if Google and Apple build it into their OS and make it the default (i.e. active opt-out), which sounds likely.

There are major flaws with this.

See https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/exit-strategy-predictions.203336/post-4531481

 

[bramling]

Other than a vaccine or treatment, contact tracing, quarantining and testing are the only practical ways out.

Or do you propose just letting it burn unchecked through the population with medical treatment not offered, wiping out everyone's Mum, Dad, Nan and Grandad? People were concerned about rioting, if that happened there would be riots.

I can’t help but feel testing & contact tracing on its own is not enough - as because of the seemingly long asymptomatic incubation phase by the time someone realised they have it, gets tested and perhaps triggers the app it’s gone too far. It would only work with heavy social distancing so that you could stand a realistic chance of picking up everyone affected.

I suspect it’s how we’re going to *have* to go as short of a vaccine there is no other realistic option. However it will only work with heavy social distancing, and only if people play ball with the social distancing.

 

[yorkie]

I can’t help but feel testing & contact tracing on its own is not enough - as because of the seemingly long asymptomatic incubation phase by the time someone realised they have it, gets tested and perhaps triggers the app it’s gone too far....

Indeed.

Before someone realised they had it (and this only works in symptomatic cases, which is estimated to be fewer than half of total cases!), they could have been deemed to be in close proximity to hundreds of people. In reality each of those people is highly unlikely to have got it from that person but all will be alerted and expected to act as if they do have it.

 

[sjpowermac]

Teachers demand PPE as they say they should not be 'guinea pigs' for lock down exit strategy

Teachers' health must not be put at risk from a "political desire" to re-open schools, teacher union boss says

www.telegraph.co.uk

Thanks for the link, it’s just posturing to look like they are doing something. As before, don’t fret. The teaching unions are worse than useless. They will huff and puff a bit but when push comes to shove they have no power at all.

 

[yorkie]

The reality is the vast majority of teachers are in the job because they care about their students. Nearly all of them could earn more money if they worked elsewhere. I'm seeing no shortage of volunteers to supervise the students who are currently in school.

 

[Chester1]

Other than a vaccine or treatment, contact tracing, quarantining and testing are the only practical ways out.

Or do you propose just letting it burn unchecked through the population with medical treatment not offered, wiping out everyone's Mum, Dad, Nan and Grandad? People were concerned about rioting, if that happened there would be riots.

The UK is never going match Germany's testing capacity, even though the government is belatedly getting private sector help. There is a lack of equipment and trained staff both in the UK and most developed countries. Germany is an outlier, partly because it ordered chemicals faster but mostly because it had much more relevant resources at hand when the crisis hit.

The balance to avoid either extreme is to test as much as possible but be aware its not a pancea. It will only reduce the amount of social distancing required to keep the virus from growing, not make it unnecessary. Testing is getting sold as a pancea by sections of the media because the government has failed on testing. If the government had succeeded then something else would be the solution....

 

[swissrailpassion]

I think the key to coming out of lockdown is abundant testing and a slow release of parts of society every 14 to 21 days. It's a terrible responsibility to risk cases rising once more or another wave. I guess we will be able to watch the USA and see how they get on in places where things are relaxed.

I think small shops and businesses should open first with strict distancing to stimulate economic activity when it is safe. No larger gatherings until the Autumn.

 

[Cardiff123]

I don't see how the hospitality industry can ever fully re-open whilst this virus remains so dangerous. If pubs re-open, there will have to be strict capacity limits in force, and noise limits as well. You can't have people in pubs shouting into each others ears to talk because loud music is playing.

As for bars, nightclubs and concert venues, I don't see how those can re-open at all in a Covid-19 world. Nightclubs and most concerts are all about being packed in with lots of sweaty people with very loud music. A perfect 'super spreading' environment.

 

[takno]

I don't see how the hospitality industry can ever fully re-open whilst this virus remains so dangerous. If pubs re-open, there will have to be strict capacity limits in force, and noise limits as well. You can't have people in pubs shouting into each others ears to talk because loud music is playing.

As for bars, nightclubs and concert venues, I don't see how those can re-open at all in a Covid-19 world. Nightclubs and most concerts are all about being packed in with lots of sweaty people with very loud music. A perfect 'super spreading' environment.

The short answer is that we are likely to take a long hard look at the scale of long term changes required to attempt, potentially with little success, to prevent the spread of this infection. After that we will quickly downgrade the dangers of the virus from exciting-and-new-scary to nasty-but-surprisingly-easy-to-ignore. I can't see any major changes in lifestyle holding tbh

 

[JonathanH]

After that we will quickly downgrade the dangers of the virus from exciting-and-new-scary to nasty-but-surprisingly-easy-to-ignore. I can't see any major changes in lifestyle holding tbh

I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.

 

[takno]

I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.

This is a range of behaviours that people enjoy hugely. Why would they want to restrict them? I'm sure lots of people will contemplate a long term change in behaviour, decide they don't much like the looks of it, and carry on much as before

 

[JonathanH]

This is a range of behaviours that people enjoy hugely. Why would they want to restrict them? I'm sure lots of people will contemplate a long term change in behaviour, decide they don't much like the looks of it, and carry on much as before.

A sense of responsibility not to spread the virus or a desire not to succumb to it sooner than necessary. It would appear rather selfish for people to go back to behaviours they enjoy if that not sustainable in the 'new normal'.

I've personally enjoyed travelling by train around the country, claiming trains for haulage but I accept that it is not important to get back to it. I'll have to find new behaviours I enjoy that are consistent with the 'new normal'.

People simply cannot continue much as before. Things have changed.

 

[takno]

A sense of responsibility not to spread the virus or a desire not to succumb to it sooner than necessary. It would appear rather selfish for people to go back to behaviours they enjoy if that not sustainable in the 'new normal'.

I've personally enjoyed travelling by train around the country, claiming trains for haulage but I accept that it is not important to get back to it. I'll have to find new behaviours I enjoy that are consistent with the 'new normal'.

People simply cannot continue much as before. Things have changed.

I just don't accept that the potential casualty figures justify this "new normal" that a rather limited range of primarily medical commentators claim we must accept. The death rate from the virus is high but not apocalyptic. The health crisis that threatens to engulf the third world (and quite possibly America) as a direct result of the "new normal" will dwarf deaths from Covid19. By September it's going to be our patriotic duty to save lives by getting back to the old normal as soon as humanly possible

 

[Cardiff123]

A sense of responsibility not to spread the virus or a desire not to succumb to it sooner than necessary. It would appear rather selfish for people to go back to behaviours they enjoy if that not sustainable in the 'new normal'.

I've personally enjoyed travelling by train around the country, claiming trains for haulage but I accept that it is not important to get back to it. I'll have to find new behaviours I enjoy that are consistent with the 'new normal'.

People simply cannot continue much as before. Things have changed.

I agree completely. If people think that once this lockdown is over, after a few months life will just go back to as it was last year, they are in for a shock. It would take just a few weeks of pubs, bars, nightclubs, restaurants, shops, big events etc resuming as 'normal' for there to be a another potentially more deadly wave of the virus, and we'd just be back in lockdown again, potentially a much harsher lockdown as well.

I just don't accept that the potential casualty figures justify this "new normal" that a rather limited range of primarily medical commentators claim we must accept. The death rate from the virus is high but not apocalyptic. The health crisis that threatens to engulf the third world (and quite possibly America) as a direct result of the "new normal" will dwarf deaths from Covid19. By September it's going to be our patriotic duty to save lives by getting back to the old normal as soon as humanly possible

Really? The 'old normal' by September? We'd just be back in lockdown by Halloween, and potentially spending Christmas & New Year in lockdown as well.

 

[bramling]

This is a range of behaviours that people enjoy hugely. Why would they want to restrict them? I'm sure lots of people will contemplate a long term change in behaviour, decide they don't much like the looks of it, and carry on much as before

A lot will depend upon what happens between now and then.

Whatever happens, we can’t have a virus raging through the population which spreads easily and has a comparatively high likelihood of killing anyone who is older or has an underlying health condition.

Equally it seems possible either a vaccine will appear or perhaps the virus may even die away of its own accord.

It’s too early to say what the longer term effects may be yet, IMO.

A lot will depend on how things pan out over the coming weeks and perhaps months. There’s still very many unknowns.

 

[Tom B]

I see lots of people wearing masks who don't get the point and/or seem to view it as the latest fashion accessory. cf - masks incorrectly face fitted, dangling off half the time, taken off to ring somebody etc...

 

[Greybeard33]

Indeed.

Before someone realised they had it (and this only works in symptomatic cases, which is estimated to be fewer than half of total cases!), they could have been deemed to be in close proximity to hundreds of people. In reality each of those people is highly unlikely to have got it from that person but all will be alerted and expected to act as if they do have it.

In Singapore contact tracing relies primarily on a small army of skilled human contact tracers, who interview each person who tests positive. The tracer asks them to try and recall who they have been in close contact with, at any time during the probable pre-symptomatic infectious period, and where and when those encounters occurred. The tracer will use their judgement as to which encounters were close enough for long enough to cause a significant risk of transmission, and then try to trace all those individuals to confirm the contact and ask them to go into quarantine.

The Singapore TraceTogether Bluetooth app, on which the NHSX app is reportedly based, is just used to help the human tracer. It only records the approximate distance from another phone running the app in close proximity and the duration and time of the encounter, but not the location. The tracer tries to match this information with the infected person's recollections to judge whether the recorded encounters were really close enough to follow up (e.g. were they in the same confined space, or open air, or even opposite sides of a partition/wall?) Every TraceTogether user gives permission for their mobile number to be stored anonymously in a central database, which the contact tracer can access to cold call the contacts, even if they are not known personally to the infected person.

The TraceTogether app has major limitations - the recorded distance is calculated from Bluetooth signal strength, so is imprecise, and, due to iOS Bluetooth security restrictions, the app only works on an iPhone while the user keeps it in the foreground (full screen), which prevents the phone being used for anything else!

Jason Bay, the product lead for TraceTogether, has published a blog in which he states:

If you ask me whether any Bluetooth contact tracing system deployed or under development, anywhere in the world, is ready to replace manual contact tracing, I will say without qualification that the answer is, No. Not now and not for the foreseeable future.

There are critical factors (like ventilation or singing!) that a purely automated system will not have access to. You cannot “big data” your way out of a “no data” situation. Period.

Any attempt to believe otherwise, is an exercise in hubris, and technology triumphalism. There are lives at stake. False positives and false negatives have real-life (and death) consequences. We use TraceTogether to supplement contact tracing — not replace it.

https://blog.gds-gov.tech/automated-contact-tracing-is-not-a-coronavirus-panacea-57fb3ce61d98. This blog also has links to a description and technical details of the app.

Singapore-style contact tracing could only work in the UK if the lockdown were maintained long enough to drive the incidence of new infections right down to Singapore-like levels, a small fraction of what we have today. Even then a huge number of human tracers would have to be recruited and trained. All that Matt Hancock said, when questioned about this in the Commons Select Committee hearing, was that the government has not yet decided whether to build on the skills of local authority health professionals or to set up a national contact tracing call centre. It seems to me that too much emphasis is being placed on technology.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think the biggest concern with regard to wearing masks, is that it would take them away from people that genuinely need them.

Already, most dental practices, which are allowed to stay open for emergency treatment (just not for checkups, teeth whitening, etc), are having to remain closed because of the lack of masks. I know someone who is in a significant amount of pain because of something that could be resolved by an emergency dentist, and whom is a key worker, but is unable to get an appointment at their usual dentist, or anywhere else in their city.

Indeed, PPE is already in huge demand and short supply. The last thing we need is mass panic buying of it, and we simply don't have the resources to make them easily available to the general public. And even if we did, there is still no real consensus on their effectiveness on preventing infection for the public at large. However, for those with mild symptoms....

If you are showing symptoms you must not leave your home for anything other than medical attention which NHS111 or your GP has advised.

Exercise must be taken within your home and food must be delivered.

Might there be a case here for an East Asia style of culture of wearing masks if you have a cold or mild flu symptoms in the longer term? Obviously if the symptoms are more serious staying at home & contacting the NHS for advice is prudent, but we live in a part of the world plagued with viruses that cause similar effects, so we need to be able to mitigate for that. The only possible downside might be that such a change of culture after the fear that this situation has caused could lead to animosity towards people following these kind of protocols.

I think there is quite a lot of potential in the anonymised mobile apps, using GPS and Bluetooth together (but not storing the location, just using it to "weed out" false matches) myself. It doesn't require full compliance, it just requires enough compliance. (I feel like I'm talking about the proposals I made a while ago for e-ticketing which were rubbished by many on the Forum because they didn't provide a perfect way of preventing fare evasion - turns out they were "good enough" as they pretty much came true).

I think compliance will be high if Google and Apple build it into their OS and make it the default (i.e. active opt-out), which sounds likely.

Thinking more about these kinds of solutions, they really could only ever be used as an advisory system, i.e. "You may have come in contact with someone who has subsequently reported possible symptoms. Please seek medical advice if you develop similar in the next 7-14 days", or something along those lines. I honestly don't know that it would be reliable enough to be any more than that, mobile GPS whilst often very accurate can still have wobbles, especially if indoors, and Bluetooth is really only going to tell you that someone was within its range (up to about 10m IIRC) but not necessarily within risk range, (1-2m).

Personally I wouldn't be adverse to using it myself, I do use GPS routinely with my Android devices to feed useful information, but I wouldn't expect it to be entirely accurate.

I don't see how the hospitality industry can ever fully re-open whilst this virus remains so dangerous. If pubs re-open, there will have to be strict capacity limits in force, and noise limits as well. You can't have people in pubs shouting into each others ears to talk because loud music is playing.

It actually wouldn't half as difficult as you might imagine. My local pub directly prior to closing had changed it's seating arrangements to allow for more distancing, & had upped it's cleaning arrangements (i.e. a full clean of tables as soon as vacated as with restaurants). So add in at-table service, maybe using a mobile app wherever possible to reduce staff movements, along with capacity reduction (e.g. no standing at the bar)

​

As for bars, nightclubs and concert venues, I don't see how those can re-open at all in a Covid-19 world. Nightclubs and most concerts are all about being packed in with lots of sweaty people with very loud music. A perfect 'super spreading' environment.

In the words of the Danish Prime Minister, "We cannot lockdown forever". And we can't, sooner or later people will congregate.

 

[yorksrob]

The UK is never going match Germany's testing capacity, even though the government is belatedly getting private sector help. There is a lack of equipment and trained staff both in the UK and most developed countries.

That's going to need to change long term.

 

[yorksrob]

I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.

I certainly don't intend to follow this course in the long term.

I will increase my activities in line with Government guidance, however since friends and family live away, restricting travel away from home is suspended, not ceased.

 

[ChrisC]

I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.

I’ve no idea how my lifestyle will continue to change over coming months as it depends upon how things develop.

I can’t see me going back to shopping in large supermarkets very soon but will continue to shop locally in village independent shops and the small local Co-op. They have served me well over the last few weeks and I haven’t had to queue. I have had to pay higher prices but the quality of the food in the local deli, butchers and bakers has been far superior to that in the supermarkets. I also don’t think that I will be rushing back to going into larger towns or cities to visit shopping centres and department stores. Therefore I will have no real need to use local trains or buses as I will continue to walk to my local shops or drive to neighbouring small towns and villages.

I can’t see my regular UK holidays resuming in their usual form during the remainder of this year. I usually travel by train, stay in a hotel for up to a week and travel around by train and bus whilst away. If hotels do open by the autumn I may consider booking into a country hotel in a none tourist area, travelling by car and explore the local area by car and do lots of walking in the country. Holidays I have already booked at flexible rates for Portsmouth in June, London in August and November, Penzance in September and Newcastle in October are now no longer likely to happen. My Penzance trip has already been rebooked from next week to September but I don’t fancy travelling from Derby down to Penzance by XC trains as things stand, especially if the Voyagers begin to get crowded again.

Hopefully, I will soon be able to visit a garden centre, to buy a few more plants for my garden. Even more I would like to be able to visit a few relatives who also live in rural areas, even if I can only see them from a distance in their gardens. It’s all very much speculation at the moment because we don’t know what the exit strategy will bring. Some people may feel my intentions a little extreme but I have my 85 year old mother living with me and so I can’t be too careful. I also have to consider how I will begin to help her to get out out of the house and garden safely in the coming months.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't see how the hospitality industry can ever fully re-open whilst this virus remains so dangerous. If pubs re-open, there will have to be strict capacity limits in force, and noise limits as well. You can't have people in pubs shouting into each others ears to talk because loud music is playing.

As for bars, nightclubs and concert venues, I don't see how those can re-open at all in a Covid-19 world. Nightclubs and most concerts are all about being packed in with lots of sweaty people with very loud music. A perfect 'super spreading' environment.

Seated concerts would be less of a concern, particularly if bars were not open, you only have close contact with about 10 people at one of those.

 

[sjpowermac]

The reality is the vast majority of teachers are in the job because they care about their students. Nearly all of them could earn more money if they worked elsewhere. I'm seeing no shortage of volunteers to supervise the students who are currently in school.

I’m not doubting the dedication of teachers. I was replying to the comment about PPE for teachers and union posturing.

As I’ve mentioned previously, the only reason the schools are closed now is so that the population take the lockdown seriously. If it were not for that then I’m certain schools would have been open throughout and there would have been very little resistance from teachers.

 

[yorkie]

I’m not doubting the dedication of teachers...

I know you aren't!

 

[JonathanP]

I think a lot of people are very much contemplating a major change in lifestyle - certainly restricting non-essential travel away from their homes and basically only travelling as work and food shopping requires. Why wouldn't they if they can?

It is pretty much what I have in mind for the foreseeable future. I can't be the only one.

A sense of responsibility not to spread the virus or a desire not to succumb to it sooner than necessary. It would appear rather selfish for people to go back to behaviours they enjoy if that not sustainable in the 'new normal'.

People simply cannot continue much as before. Things have changed.

The way I see it, the restrictions are to protect society, and the health service, from the overall consequences of the level of social contact in society as whole, not the individual from the consequences of their own social activity(which is impossible). The actual risk of contracting the disease from any given activity is very low, and also very difficult to assess. So if the authorities choose allow a particular activity which was previously banned, e.g. outdoor non-contact recreational team sports, I don't see why I shouldn't take part in it, whilst still taking all possible precautions.

I can understand that other people, particularly those in a high-risk group, may have an entireley different intrepretation, but at least that's the only interpretation I can use and stay sane. I have not had a face to face conversation with another human being, or seen anything other than the street to the nearest supermarket, and the nearest park, since the lockdown began. If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.

 

[chris11256]

Ultimately I think any behaviour changes are temporary at most. Currently people are still utterly terrified but in the future, lockdown will end & people will start going about their lives again.

There might be short term changes across the next year or so, but I don't think it'll last.


Slightly off topic, but locally I've already noticed more and more people/cars out and about as time progresses. Whether this is a fluke or the start of lockdown fatigue, who knows.

 

[HH]

I can understand that other people, particularly those in a high-risk group, may have an entireley different intrepretation, but at least that's the only interpretation I can use and stay sane. I have not had a face to face conversation with another human being, or seen anything other than the street to the nearest supermarket, and the nearest park, since the lockdown began. If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.

Are you making the most of your opportunities? I've discovered several new walks, to give variety to my daily exercise. On these walks I see people I know, and while staying 2m+ apart, we have conversations. I facetime my (grown up) children regularly and still have regular (audio and video) contact with work colleagues and clients. Sure, I miss some of the things I did regularly before lockdown, but I'm not going into meltdown, because I suspect that it will be a long while before things get back to normal. Stoicism has a lot to recommend it.

 

[Bantamzen]

The way I see it, the restrictions are to protect society, and the health service, from the overall consequences of the level of social contact in society as whole, not the individual from the consequences of their own social activity(which is impossible). The actual risk of contracting the disease from any given activity is very low, and also very difficult to assess. So if the authorities choose allow a particular activity which was previously banned, e.g. outdoor non-contact recreational team sports, I don't see why I shouldn't take part in it, whilst still taking all possible precautions.

I can understand that other people, particularly those in a high-risk group, may have an entireley different intrepretation, but at least that's the only interpretation I can use and stay sane. I have not had a face to face conversation with another human being, or seen anything other than the street to the nearest supermarket, and the nearest park, since the lockdown began. If this is going to be life for the next 2 years, or perhaps forever, it's not a life I want to live.

I'm pretty much the same, as things start to ramp back up (and they will) I will start to restart those activities deemed as low risk and once again allowable. And as you say it is pretty much up to the individual going forward, if some people feel they don't want to risk things then that is their choice.

Slightly off topic, but locally I've already noticed more and more people/cars out and about as time progresses. Whether this is a fluke or the start of lockdown fatigue, who knows.

There is definitely more movement happening than in the first week, both in cars & on foot. And its inevitable because most people won't stay locked up in their houses for weeks and months on end, especially as the weather has been so nice. I will say before anyone rants, in the places I have been people are still respecting social distancing, but there are definitely more people around.