I think we can expect lockdown before the next relaxing of restrictions ( 17th May or June 21st at latest ) as IMO that’s what all these “advisors “ on the news are hinting at , like I said Boris seems only to keen to hope obstacles and put obstacles in the path of our way to freedom and normality
On the subject of Boris am I the only one today who has noticed Boris “seems” to have changed his wording he seems to be referring to covid passports for international travel , not mentioning domestically - more in hope that those who are against it will sweep it under the carpet
This is not what Boris Johnson has bene saying today, according to the Daily Mail he expects the lockdown to end on time. Something would have to go spectacularly wrong, such as a large increase in cases, a new variant of concern, or a serious problem with the vaccination program, for the lockdown easings on 17th May and 21st June to be postponed.
The Prime Minister said he couldn't 'see any reason for us to deviate from the road map' which is due to see all legal limits on social contacts abolished by June 21 as part of the final phase of the four-step route out of the crisis. During a visit to an AstraZeneca Covid vaccine plant in Cheshire today, Mr Johnson said: 'I just think it's important we take each step on the road map as it comes and continue to roll out the vaccine, build up our defences, build up the natural resistance of our whole population in the way that we are and then continue to look at the data in the intervals that we've set out. 'So we are going to see exactly what happens from the April 12 to May 17 openings and thereafter through to June 21. At the moment, as I look at all the data, I can't see any reason for us to deviate from the road map that we have set out, we are sticking to it.
Elsewhere, the SAGE modelling is getting very critical reviews from some members of the scientific community:-
SAGE's doomsday models which predicted more than a thousand coronavirus deaths at the peak of a third wave later in the year cherry-picked 'very pessimistic assumptions', scientists warned today.
Independent experts told MailOnline the data used by the Government's scientific advisers 'didn't match' how well the vaccine rollout is going and played down how effective the jabs are - and at least one was 'very confident the NHS is not going to be overwhelmed'.
Professor Tim Spector, an epidemiologist at King's College London, said SAGE had repeatedly made bleak forecasts that never came true, 'perhaps to avoid complacency' among the public.
The government was yesterday accused of using 'Project Fear' tactics to prolong coronavirus restrictions by stealth with plans for mass twice-weekly testing, vaccine passports and foreign travel restrictions.
But No10's own forecasts show that any third wave of Covid this summer is likely to be manageable, and models that caused widespread alarm were worst-case nightmare scenarios based on ineffective vaccines.
Yesterday a tranche of papers released by the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE) suggested that lifting curbs fully in June could cause push the NHS to the brink again.
The expert group included modelling from three different universities - Imperial College London, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Warwick University.
After reviewing all three papers, SAGE said social distancing, mask wearing and Covid vaccine passports will need to remain in place for at least another year to keep the virus in check even when the most brutal curbs are lifted.
It added that while the vaccines prevent the vast majority of people from falling ill and dying from coronavirus, they 'are not good enough' to see all curbs lifted 'without a big epidemic'.
The gloomiest modelling was done by the London School of Tropical Hygiene and Medicine, which forecast 'a resurgence in admissions and deaths comparable to the magnitude of the second wave in January', when there were more than 1,000 deaths a day.
The LSHTM research team warned a third wave could be even larger if there is a British outbreak of a new Covid variant which makes vaccines weaker.
But their pessimistic model assumed the AstraZeneca vaccine only reduced transmission - the number of people who continue to spread Covid - by 30 per cent, which is far more cautious than data from the real world suggests.
The Government's own analysis of Britain's vaccine rollout, carried out by Public Health England, found the jab slashes infections by about two thirds after just one dose and more than 70 per cent after both injections.
Professor Spector, who is running a major Covid symptom tracking study tracking a million Brits, slammed LSHTM's modelling. He said that while there may be small outbreaks of Covid in the future, 'we're not going to see anything like we've seen previously' now that half the adult population has been immunised.
Dr Raghib Ali, a clinical epidemiologist at Cambridge University and former Government Covid adviser, told MailOnline that despite the gloomy forecasts, 'we can be very confident the NHS is not going to be overwhelmed… I’m optimistic we will be able to follow the road map