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Brexit matters

AY1975

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They may have their personal views but there is a delicate balance to be made so the safe option is just to cut and paste the party line. In particular, many Labour MPs and members are likely to favour in principle a closer association with the EU going well beyond what is currently proposed. But this needs the EU to be interested in doing so, and confident that whatever is done won't just be reversed by a future Tory government. So expressing that sort of view risks unreasonably raising the hopes of those who share it, and annoying those who don't - but also the many who remember the strife of 2016-24 and don't want to go back there.

Over time, more Leave voters will see the downsides of Brexit and the demographic will shift as older and more likely anti-EU voters die off and younger more likely pro-EU people reach voting age. That process has to run for quite a while more before there's any question of a major realignment towards the EU.
Exactly, so as time goes on there will be more younger people reaching voting age who will come to realise that they have been cheated out of the rights and freedoms that EU citizens enjoy and that previous generations in the UK, including their parents' generation, took for granted. Brexiteers might argue that those born from the early to mid 2000s onwards will only ever have known life outside the EU at least in their adult years so they will come to regard it as the norm, but in many cases their parents will tell them how much better life was inside the EU in the 1990s and early 2000s.

As the electorate becomes more pro-EU as more younger people join the electorate and more older Eurosceptics leave the world, it will become more difficult for anyone to argue that the very close result of a non-legally binding referendum must be respected forever or that the government must continue to kowtow to a vociferous and diminishing minority who consider themselves entitled to have their way for the rest of their lives regardless of whether they were aged 18 or 80 in 2016.

Granted, the pro-EU pamphlet that was sent to every home in the UK did promise that the referendum would be "a once in a lifetime decision" and that "the government will implement what you decide". But technically David Cameron was overstepping his authority by saying that because governments and parliaments may not bind their successors. As such, neither Cameron nor any of his successors (including Starmer) have the power to compel all future governments to abide by the 2016 referendum result. Also, Cameron had told parliament that the referendum was to be advisory only and would not compel the government to abide by the result.
 
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Howardh

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Labour must either be worried by, or just waiting for, the tide of public opinion being in favour of a return to the EU (or at least single market) becoming overwhelming. They can't blame price rises/inflation on the Tories, Russia or Covid for ever, and people will twig how much better life was before Brexit.

But even if the economy doesn't shift opinion; the forthcoming entry biometrics (take your fingerprints to go on holiday, anyone??)+ ETIAS visa waivers which is bound to make entry to the Schengen Zone (most of Europe) far more complicated and bound to be extra-long queues at airports, ports and Eurostar (initially, at least) may concentrate a few minds that life really WAS better before. So I'm just hoping, r/e Labour, we are currently in a "holding" situation.

On the plus side, all those racists being imprisoned due to the recent riots may well have prohibited themselves from going abroad on holiday for the next 10-15 years!
 

signed

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public opinion being in favour of a return to the EU
The main issue with that is that any return to the EU would realisticly entail all kinds of things that are clear aren't wanted (switching to the Euro, Schengen...), there are very little reason for the EU to ask for less, in a rejoin, because of the very different bargaining scale.
 

Howardh

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The main issue with that is that any return to the EU would realisticly entail all kinds of things that are clear aren't wanted (switching to the Euro, Schengen...), there are very little reason for the EU to ask for less, in a rejoin, because of the very different bargaining scale.
Wouldn't apply if we joined the single market; after all we were "promised" the "Norway model" who are in the single market but keep their currency; although I don't know if they were "forced" to join Schengen - in any case UK would have to accept free movement (hurrah) so might as well join Schengen and get shut of all the UK/EU immigration procedures, maybe and concentrate on non-EU immigration instead? The balance would be we may get more EU's coming here to look for work, but we could also, once again, move away to work/retire as we used to.
 

najaB

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The main issue with that is that any return to the EU would realisticly entail all kinds of things that are clear aren't wanted (switching to the Euro, Schengen...), there are very little reason for the EU to ask for less, in a rejoin, because of the very different bargaining scale.
Not necessarily. Sweden doesn't use the Euro and has no intention to, and Ireland isn't in the Schengen Zone.
 

ainsworth74

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Sweden doesn't use the Euro and has no intention to

I think that would be a very difficult opt out to get again even if it was in a "in the fullness of time, when circumstances permit, at a time when the Venus is in the shadow of Jupiter, the UK will join the Euro" which is akin to the agreement places like Czechia have in that they must join the Euro when the relevant criteria are met but have, twenty odd years after joining the EU, miraculously yet to meet them.

and Ireland isn't in the Schengen Zone.

Of course the answer to that one might well be: "No worries at all, Ireland can join Schengen at the same time as the UK!"
 

Gloster

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Not necessarily. Sweden doesn't use the Euro and has no intention to, and Ireland isn't in the Schengen Zone.

But I think that the EU said a while back that all new entrants will have to agree to join the Euro, although I am not sure if that has to be simultaneous with joining. Whether we could negotiate an exception on the basis that we were a reentry I do not know, but I doubt they would set a precedent.

Ireland isn’t in Schengen because we weren’t and the problems that it joining might cause, including to the Good Friday Agreement. Sweden was previously part of the Nordic Passport Union.
 

najaB

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I think that would be a very difficult opt out to get again even if it was in a "in the fullness of time, when circumstances permit, at a time when the Venus is in the shadow of Jupiter, the UK will join the Euro" which is akin to the agreement places like Czechia have in that they must join the Euro when the relevant criteria are met but have, twenty odd years after joining the EU, miraculously yet to meet them.
Thing is, they don't have an opt-out. They've just decided not to use it!
Of course the answer to that one might well be: "No worries at all, Ireland can join Schengen at the same time as the UK!"
That's similar thinking to those who said that the solution to the Irish Sea Problem was for Ireland to leave the EU.
 

Howardh

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I think that would be a very difficult opt out to get again even if it was in a "in the fullness of time, when circumstances permit, at a time when the Venus is in the shadow of Jupiter, the UK will join the Euro" which is akin to the agreement places like Czechia have in that they must join the Euro when the relevant criteria are met but have, twenty odd years after joining the EU, miraculously yet to meet them.



Of course the answer to that one might well be: "No worries at all, Ireland can join Schengen at the same time as the UK!"
I suppose, however unlikely in the foreseeable, Scotland could get it's independence, join the EU and Schengen, so we would then HAVE to have a hard border between Scotland and England. But the point being while the current situation of an open border between RoI and the UK might be workable, it may prevent Ireland joining Schengen as that could force a hard border between UK and RoI.

Currently there are checks on EU's entering Ireland even if it's a glance at their ID card, those would disappear if Ireland were to adopt Schengen.
 

signed

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Sweden doesn't use the Euro and has no intention to, and Ireland isn't in the Schengen Zone.
Different cases entirely

The UK basically have put a middle finger to the EU, if they want to say pretty please and rejoin, the power balance is very firmly sitting the EU camp, meaning that the UK likely won't get the opt-outs they would want.
 

ainsworth74

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Thing is, they don't have an opt-out. They've just decided not to use it!
True but if I was an EU negotiator I'm not sure I'd be as kind to perfidious Albion, which has a very advanced well developed economy, as I was to a country which was recovering from decades of Communist rule like Czechia was when they were joining in the late 90s early 00s.
That's similar thinking to those who said that the solution to the Irish Sea Problem was for Ireland to leave the EU.
I suppose it is but why should an EU negotiator make a carve out specifically for the UK, as a new applicant, on this matter when no-one else who applies to join now is likely to get one? Accession to Schengen could feasibly be postponed (such as it was for countries like Romania when they joined the EU) but it seems unlikely that they'd easily agree to an endless exemption.
 

Howardh

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True but if I was an EU negotiator I'm not sure I'd be as kind to perfidious Albion, which has a very advanced well developed economy, as I was to a country which was recovering from decades of Communist rule like Czechia was when they were joining in the late 90s early 00s.

I suppose it is but why should an EU negotiator make a carve out specifically for the UK, as a new applicant, on this matter when no-one else who applies to join now is likely to get one? Accession to Schengen could feasibly be postponed (such as it was for countries like Romania when they joined the EU) but it seems unlikely that they'd easily agree to an endless exemption.
We're actually running out of countries who could join the EU, and if those accession ones have already agreed to the "terms and conditions" so can't really moan if another joins on different ones.

I suppose the EU could argue that the UK is different anyway as we're a lapsed member rather than a new one?

But if the "they need us more than we need them" is true; then the EU will bend over backwards to allow us back. Or that was a downright lie.
 

sor

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The lawyers would probably spend a lot of time arguing for both sides, as to whether the UK could reclaim the Schengen and Euro opt outs from before. It is still mentioned in the relevant treaties.

I'm not some "british exceptionalist" but I think the EU would probably bend if the UK was serious about rejoining. Not only does a net contributor rejoin the fold but it is the greatest PR win for "the european project" that they could ever hope for.
 

ainsworth74

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Some Brexit news today causes me, with some trepidiation, to bring this thread back to life but I'm not sure it seats comfortably in any of our other political threads!

Looks like a good set of agreements to me have been achieved by Labour. No particular downsides that I can see and some wins such as e-gates and some more regulatory alignment, easing of trade barriers for farming and security cooperation. Shame that they couldn't get Youth Mobility and Erasmus over the line but hopefully that will follow in due course:

The UK and the EU have reached a new deal setting out post-Brexit relations on areas including fishing rights, trade and defence.

The full details will be set out later.

But here's a look at what we know is in the deal.

Fishing​


  • A new deal will keep the current status quo giving EU boats continued access to UK waters until 2038
  • The 2020 Brexit deal, which saw the UK regain 25% EU fishing quotas, was due to run out next year
  • The UK will continue to agree yearly quotas with the EU and Norway and issue licences to control who fishes in its waters
  • A £360m "fishing and coastal growth fund" to invest in new technology and equipment

Farming exports​

  • In return for extending current fishing rules, the UK has secured a deal to reduce checks on food exports to the EU
  • The vast majority of routine border checks on animal and plant shipments to and from the EU will be dropped
  • The new sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) agreement means the UK can sell raw burgers and sausages back into the EU for the first time since Brexit
  • Under the deal the UK will be expected to follow EU rules it does not write – overseen by the European Court of Justice. But it can break away if it keeps similar standards and avoids harming EU trade

Defence and security​

  • A formal UK-EU defence and security pact has been established
  • UK and EU officials will meet every six months to talk about defence and foreign policy
  • Both sides will coordinate on sanctions, share more information and develop a space-related security policy
  • The government says the agreement "paves the way" for UK-based arms firms to access the Security Action for Europe (Safe) - a £150bn EU fund providing loans for defence projects

Youth experience scheme​

  • The UK and the EU have agreed to co-operate further on a "youth experience scheme" - but this will be subject to further negotiations
  • The government says such a scheme "could see young people able to work and travel freely in Europe again" but would be "capped and time-limited"
  • It says the idea would mirror existing schemes the UK has with countries like Australia and New Zealand, where there is an annual quota of visas allowing people between the ages of 18 and 35 to work in each other's countries for up to three years
  • The UK is also negotiating to rejoin the Erasmus+ programme, which allows students to study or do an internship abroad

Passport e-gates​

  • British holidaymakers will be able to use e-gates at more European airports
  • When Brexit ended freedom of movement, it changed the rules for people travelling to European countries. Now, British passport holders can't use "EU/EEA/CH" lanes at EU border crossings
  • A new passport system will make it easier for UK pets to travel, ending the need for repeat vet certificates

Carbon tax​

  • The UK and EU will link their carbon markets to avoid taxes on carbon-intensive goods like steel and cement travelling between the UK and EU
  • The government says it will save £800m in taxes and shield British steel from EU tariffs, thanks to a UK-only deal worth £25m a year
 

YorkshireBear

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Some Brexit news today causes me, with some trepidiation, to bring this thread back to life but I'm not sure it seats comfortably in any of our other political threads!

Looks like a good set of agreements to me have been achieved by Labour. No particular downsides that I can see and some wins such as e-gates and some more regulatory alignment, easing of trade barriers for farming and security cooperation. Shame that they couldn't get Youth Mobility and Erasmus over the line but hopefully that will follow in due course:


Yeah but we have given away our freedom all over again. Insert other future Daily Mail headlines to replace this!

Looks really positive to me, and purely selfishly on the E-gates sooner the better. Nice to have a reset and see if we can get some trade restarted.
 

Mojo

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Were we not going to be able to use the electronic passport gates (on a more widespread scale than the limited number of countries / airports that permit them at present) anyway, when the new Etias / EES comes into being?
 

Snow1964

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Finally have tried to move on and fix some of the bad bodge that was Brexit in name but didn't help UK economy, led to some finding export to Europe too complicated thus cutting jobs, and ultimately led to higher prices being passed onto consumers.

I see on the news usual suspects are using toxic language like sell out and surrender. They still don't get how much it damaged the economy and saw immigration skyrocket.

Still convinced Brexit has been a bad lesson in how not to help economic prosperity and end up giving away decades of hard won status
 

Gloster

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I am not fully up with the detail, but it looks that a number of elements of this will now avoid the sky falling in when some of the changes that were to be the eventual result of Brexit will not take place. I am particularly thinking of food imports where, so I believe, we were far from ready with the various inspection measures, such as veterinary checks that should have been brought in. We were so far behind on this that there was a risk of a massive fall in food imports and exports because the ports couldn’t handle them. (I may be wrong on this.)

Fishing may not have done so well out of it, but it at least has some clarity. Despite Rees-Mogg’s claim that the fish are happier and all the promises to take back fishing for the British fishermen, they were sold down the river.

But I am sure the M**l, Express, S*n and the like are busy getting quotes from Farage and Badenoch.
 

geoffk

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Agree with the above but it's a shame we're still waiting for a "youth experience" scheme and Erasmus. These should be uncontroversial. My grand-daughter is coming up to 15 and I hope she will be able to benefit in due course.
 

Peterthegreat

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From what I've seen it seems to be good news all round.
How Kemi Badenoch can call the fishing deal a "sell out" is ludicrous.
We currently have a deal, negotiated by Johnson, that will continue for another dozen years.
What downright hypocrisy.
 

kkong

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The e-gates angle is being heavily pushed by the UK side, but there seems to be little actual substance to it.

I've used e-gates when entering / existing Schengen many times in recent years (with a physical stamp once through them).

The physical stamps will be going away later this year once the Entry-Exit System (EES) finally comes into service.

By comparison, the European Commission's statement is bland and offers no detail on what, if anything, will be changing regarding e-gates:

16. The United Kingdom and the European Commission will continue their exchanges on smooth border management for the benefit of their citizens, including the potential use of eGates where appropriate. They note that European Union citizens can use eGates in the United Kingdom and that there will be no legal barriers to eGate use for British Nationals traveling to and from European Union Member States after the introduction of the European Union Entry/Exit System.
 

ainsworth74

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The fishermen have been sold out by Labour having previously been sold out by the tories.

How Kemi Badenoch can call the fishing deal a "sell out" is ludicrous.
We currently have a deal, negotiated by Johnson, that will continue for another dozen years.
What downright hypocrisy.
Fishing is such a ludicrous thing to get hung up on. It is obviously important to those few communities where fishing remains important to the local economy but to the UK economy it's neigh on a rounding error.

Economic output​

Official statistics on economic output of the fishing industry are volatile and can be significantly revised from year to year. According to the ONS, in 2021, the sector contributed around 0.03% of total UK economic output and around 5% of the broader agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.

In 2020, just under 70% of economic output from the fishing and aquaculture industry was generated in Scotland.

Seafish, a non-departmental public body representing the seafood industry, estimated that economic output in the sector was £483 million in 2021, up from £458 million in 2020, but lower than the £536 million reported in 2019.


[...]


Employment and fleet size​

The total number of fishers in the UK was around 11,000 in 2021, down from around 20,000 in the mid-1990s.

[...]

Fish processing​

There were 348 fish processing sites in the UK in 2020. Fish processing sites accounted for 17,988 full-time equivalent jobs. The fish processing industry is concentrated in the Humber and the Grampians.




0.03% of the UKs total economic output and 11,000 direct jobs on boats and another 18,000 in processing and yet it eats up so much time and effort in negotiations. Sure we shouldn't just kill the sector off (£500m and 30,000 odd jobs is not nothing!) but good grief can we at least get a sense of perspective?

For instance how much time and effort is expended on ensuring that the Brexit deal works for our video game industry, which makes a much bigger contribution to the UK economy:

We recognise that the UK’s video games sector brings economic, cultural and social benefits across the UK. DCMS estimates the UK video games sector generated £2.1bn in GVA in 2023, with industry trade body Ukie estimating that 26,000 are people employed directly in the sector in the UK.


Around 4x as much economic output and almost as many people directly employed as fishing. And yet it's fishing which takes up all the bandwidth!
 

nlogax

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It's definitely a good news story and one that brightens our national outlook by a fair degree. Couldn't care less about the detractors at this stage. They're irrelevant.

From what I've seen it seems to be good news all round.
How Kemi Badenoch can call the fishing deal a "sell out" is ludicrous.
We currently have a deal, negotiated by Johnson, that will continue for another dozen years.
What downright hypocrisy.
She needs something to gripe at and help corral what's left of her rag-tag bunch of MPs in order to stay leading her party. This is all she has. Desperate times.
 

TheSmiths82

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My thoughts as somebody who has actively campaigned for a second referendum (so yes I am biased) is it doesn't go far enough but it is a great start. The e-gates things might not happen as there doesn't seem to be any incentive for countries to allow us to use them. It doesn't solve the issue of touring artists finding too hard to visit the UK vice versa.

It is great news for food exporters. I am not sure what checks were we actually doing for imported food from the EU so in practice I am not sure if the EU being able to import more fresh food into the UK without checks will make such a huge difference. It is good that the fishing industry has got easier access to the EU market, but the fishing community will never be happy. It is also a tiny part of our GDP and it isn't worth sacrificing wider trade agreements with the EU for the sake of the fishing industry. Ironically if it wasn't for the EU quotas there might not have been much of a fishing industry left anyway.
What I am most shocked about is I had LBC playing on the radio on the way home from work and I didn't hear a single word from a certain person I shall not mention, but his surname begins with F.

In summary I am pleased with todays announcement but hopefully it is just a small part of what it is to come. I am still very afraid that is a Reform/Tory government get in it will all be ripped up again.
 

Gloster

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One part of the deal that I think is political useful as well as being a good thing is the e-gates one. A lot of people aren’t going to really understand most of the details of the deal, but something that appears to make their holidays easier is going to be popular.
 

dangie

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One part of the deal that I think is political useful as well as being a good thing is the e-gates one. A lot of people aren’t going to really understand most of the details of the deal, but something that appears to make their holidays easier is going to be popular.
I’m hoping the airport e-gates like my new passport, as they sure as hell didn’t like the old one :frown:

She [Kemi Badenoch] needs something to gripe at and help corral what's left of her rag-tag bunch of MPs in order to stay leading her party. This is all she has. Desperate times.
From the BBC:
Party leader Kemi Badenoch has labelled the agreement a "surrender" deal, and says that Prime Minister Keir Starmer has "taken us backwards".

Taken us backwards……. Well that’s a good thing then…..
 
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edwin_m

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Despite Rees-Mogg’s claim that the fish are happier and all the promises to take back fishing for the British fishermen, they were sold down the river.
They couldn't be sold so much in other places because apparently the export paperwork meant the fish was often past its best when it got to the EU. Hopefully the other agreements will help with this and benefit the fishing industry.
 

Mrwerdna1

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One part of the deal that I think is political useful as well as being a good thing is the e-gates one. A lot of people aren’t going to really understand most of the details of the deal, but something that appears to make their holidays easier is going to be popular.
Quite. Another one of these "wish it weren't so, but alas it is" realities of politics. Without wanting to appear facetious, I ask myself just how much current opposition to Brexit (apparent in polling) is down to British holiday makers not wanting to queue at airports, rather than the myriad of other negative effects, including economic impacts :rolleyes:
 

brad465

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Fishing is such a ludicrous thing to get hung up on. It is obviously important to those few communities where fishing remains important to the local economy but to the UK economy it's neigh on a rounding error.






0.03% of the UKs total economic output and 11,000 direct jobs on boats and another 18,000 in processing and yet it eats up so much time and effort in negotiations. Sure we shouldn't just kill the sector off (£500m and 30,000 odd jobs is not nothing!) but good grief can we at least get a sense of perspective?

For instance how much time and effort is expended on ensuring that the Brexit deal works for our video game industry, which makes a much bigger contribution to the UK economy:




Around 4x as much economic output and almost as many people directly employed as fishing. And yet it's fishing which takes up all the bandwidth!
If there was an annual award for "making a mountain out of a molehill", Brexit fishing would have won it hands down several years in a row.
 

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