EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

BananaRepublic · 16 Jan 2019

Mentioned on Newsnight tonight, it would require 22 weeks to have another referendum, including a mandatory 12 weeks campaigning time.
That's after legislation have been proposed, debated and then voted on, which would add another few weeks to the process.
That makes it July at the earliest.

It's 10 weeks to the 29th March.

RailUK Forums

bnm · 16 Jan 2019

10 weeks is time enough to postpone Article 30. From that other options can then flow. Be they renegotiation, general election, referendum, free unicorn for every child...

bramling · 16 Jan 2019

Howardh said:
Well, we do now know what we'll lose, and we know what we'll gain.

Right at the start I said the Ireland border would ultimately prevent any kind of hard or even medium Brexit. Looks like I was on the right lines and if a few mps had listened to a mere pleb like me, we could heve saved ourselves £bs in prep and spent it in the, oh, I dunno....NHS....just a thought?

I remain very strongly of the opinion that the NI border should not be allowed to be an insurmountable roadblock.

Part of the difficulty seems to be that this seems to have been treated as a complete red line - there seems to have been very little discussion of possible solutions. I think many people elsewhere see this with complete consternation - we (as things stand now) have freedom of movement with the EU, but this doesn’t mean someone can just stride through Dover completely unhindered.

BananaRepublic · 16 Jan 2019

While the courts have ruled that the UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, postponement would require the agreement of all 27 other EU member states.

There is currently no majority in parliament for....
withdrawal of Article 50,
postponing it,
another referendum,
or a no deal exit.

The only thing that parliament has agreed upon, by passing the European Union (withdrawal) Act 2018 and by passing an act of parliament triggering Article 50, is that we leave the EU at 2300 on the 29th of March, whether or not there is "a deal".
To change that is going to be a very difficult task.
Passing motions in the HOC doesn't cut it. Primary legislation will be required.
The MP's are digging an ever deeper hole at an increasing rate, including those hell bent on stalling or stopping Brexit.

DynamicSpirit · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
If we work on the basis that the biggest issue seems to be the backstop, and the sticking point behind the backstop is the border. Is there *any* prospect of the three sides (ROI, UK and NI political parties) finding a solution? Surely it should be possible to have a border which allows unchecked travel for those entitled?

I would imagine a problem there is that - for both people and goods - if you want unchecked travel for the people/goods entitled to it but not for those not entitled to it, then you need to check that people/goods crossing are entitled to unchecked travel And by definition, that means you've now checked them. So you no longer have unchecked travel for anyone

bramling · 16 Jan 2019

DynamicSpirit said:
I would imagine a problem there is that - for both people and goods - if you want unchecked travel for the people/goods entitled to it but not for those not entitled to it, then you need to check that people/goods crossing are entitled to unchecked travel And by definition, that means you've now checked them. So you no longer have unchecked travel for anyone

Apologies perhaps my wording wasn’t very well chosen. I wasn’t intending to infer unchecked in the literal sense. But I was attempting to allude to undisrupted (in the sense that a train running on clear signals could be described as “unchecked”!). So whilst I would be looking for a border with all that entails, equally I’d be looking for something where citizens of the common travel area can travel through as undisrupted as possible.

bramling · 16 Jan 2019

BananaRepublic said:
While the courts have ruled that the UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, postponement would require the agreement of all 27 other EU member states.

There is currently no majority in parliament for....
withdrawal of Article 50,
postponing it,
another referendum,
or a no deal exit.

The only thing that parliament has agreed upon, by passing the European Union (withdrawal) Act 2018 and by passing an act of parliament triggering Article 50, is that we leave the EU at 2300 on the 29th of March, whether or not there is "a deal".
To change that is going to be a very difficult task.
Passing motions in the HOC doesn't cut it. Primary legislation will be required.
The MP's are digging an ever deeper hole at an increasing rate, including those hell bent on stalling or stopping Brexit.

I think the default position should now be no deal. By all means explore other options in that time, however with the timescale available and the uncertainty of everything else then that’s the only sensible course of immediate action. One hopes that there has actually been some proper planning going on behind the scenes - surely there has?!

I wouldn’t be surprised merely to see May continuing to play for time though. Will the EU simply lose patience and gently push things towards no deal? That’s sort of the message emanating from Brussels, but it’s hard to tell if this is just rhetoric.

Groningen · 16 Jan 2019

Many in the Netherlands (who were interested) know where they were when the results were announced at 20.45 (dutch time).

EM2 · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
Will the EU simply lose patience and gently push things towards no deal? That’s sort of the message emanating from Brussels, but it’s hard to tell if this is just rhetoric.

Donald Tusk has said if there's no appetite for no deal, and no-one supports the deal, then there is only one sensible option left. Reading between the lines, that would be to remain.

AlterEgo · 16 Jan 2019

Groningen said:
Many in the Netherlands (who were interested) know where they were when the results were announced at 20.45 (dutch time).

Don’t you guys have anything better to do over there? It’s hardly the JFK assassination.

Senex · 16 Jan 2019

ainsworth74 said:
I wish the media at large would knock it off with vox pops in general to be quite honest. If I wanted Betty or Ernie of Generic High Street Four's point of view I'd talk to people I know! When I watch or read the news I want analysis, comment and opinion from people who are actually either experts in the field (or a tangental field) or are directly involved in the matter.

Me too! But this practice seems so deeply embedded in broadcasting now that it will be very hard to get rid of. It also allows for considerable bias in what they choose to shew. Watch, for example (on a totally non-EU subject!), how the BBC on any welfare story always manages to produce a young single mother to complain about how badly off she is but never asks her where the father of the child is and why he isn't offering support. On the EU, it's been striking how many of the vox pop speakers have been pro-Leave.

nidave · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
If we work on the basis that the biggest issue seems to be the backstop, and the sticking point behind the backstop is the border. Is there *any* prospect of the three sides (ROI, UK and NI political parties) finding a solution? Surely it should be possible to have a border which allows unchecked travel for those entitled?

But that's just not possible with n. Ireland being in the customs union or at least recognizing the echr or else the GFA becomes invalid. Where do you put the border checks required by law for a 3rd country

trash80 · 16 Jan 2019

Groningen said:
Many in the Netherlands (who were interested) know where they were when the results were announced at 20.45 (dutch time).

I was watching a cheesy 70s film, far more interesting

nidave · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
I remain very strongly of the opinion that the NI border should not be allowed to be an insurmountable roadblock.

Part of the difficulty seems to be that this seems to have been treated as a complete red line - there seems to have been very little discussion of possible solutions. I think many people elsewhere see this with complete consternation - we (as things stand now) have freedom of movement with the EU, but this doesn’t mean someone can just stride through Dover completely unhindered.

How many times do you need to be told.
It's not just people that's the problem in n. Ireland. It's services and goods.
There are things like electricity supply contracts which are dependant on the GFA and no border. Policing and other cross border services are impacted as well. No one has started untangling the many cross border contracts required by the GFA in both business and government.

What business do you know which continues to supply goods and services when a contract becomes invalid as lot will due to the GFA in n. Ireland and interdependencies.

Things like keeping the lights on is important to people in n. Ireland. 9% ish electricity is supplied from the roi.

You might not believe that but the government has been planning for power cuts in n. Ireland in the event of no deal. You would imagine they know more about it

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...y-plan-to-keep-ni-lights-on-if-no-brexit-deal

Plus how can you have no border if this is a requirement... Where do you do the checks.... Irish sea or he Border of no/roi??

After March 2019 if there’s no deal
If the UK leaves the EU in March 2019 with no deal in place, EHCs would be required for exports of all animal products and live animals from the UK to the EU. Consignments would need to travel through a Border Inspection Post (BIP) within the EU. EHCs would need to be signed by an Official Veterinarian or authorised signatory following inspection of the consignment.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-and-animal-products-if-theres-no-brexit-deal

The lack of understanding of the issues wuth no deal and the GFA and the focus on just a single thing is staggering.

Bletchleyite · 16 Jan 2019

Howardh said:
Well, we do now know what we'll lose, and we know what we'll gain.

Agreed. A referendum held now - ideally one with campaigning strictly prohibited and held on as short notice as practicable - would be based on what was actually known rather than conjecture. I would vote Remain, but if Leave won at least we know it would have won based on the actual situation and everything good and bad about it rather than conjecture and lies written on the side of a coach.

Bletchleyite · 16 Jan 2019

BananaRepublic said:
including a mandatory 12 weeks campaigning time

There is no need for campaigning and it will just wheel the lies out.

We don't have a written constitution, and if that's simply a law Parliament can change it - and should change it.

Bletchleyite · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
I wouldn’t be surprised merely to see May continuing to play for time though. Will the EU simply lose patience and gently push things towards no deal?

I'm surprised they haven't, but I think reading between the lines I read not that but "just forget the whole thing".

AM9 · 16 Jan 2019

BananaRepublic said:
While the courts have ruled that the UK can unilaterally withdraw Article 50, postponement would require the agreement of all 27 other EU member states.

There is currently no majority in parliament for....
withdrawal of Article 50,
postponing it,
another referendum,
or a no deal exit.

The only thing that parliament has agreed upon, by passing the European Union (withdrawal) Act 2018 and by passing an act of parliament triggering Article 50, is that we leave the EU at 2300 on the 29th of March, whether or not there is "a deal".
To change that is going to be a very difficult task.
Passing motions in the HOC doesn't cut it. Primary legislation will be required.
The MP's are digging an ever deeper hole at an increasing rate, including those hell bent on stalling or stopping Brexit.

Never underestimate just what parliaments can (and will) do at the last minute when they feel that they will be responsible for a disaster. The law forcing us to leave the EU is just a law, and it is within parliament's gift to change it whenever there is a percieved need. This may not be a war situation, but the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 gives parliament the authority to 'walk through' in very short time changes to almost any existing laws (notably excluding the Human Rights Act 1998 and the Civil Contingencies Act itself). They would be extraordinary steps but on the eve of chaos through lack of necessary planning, a case would be made that would pass through parliament in the time available.

HH · 16 Jan 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Agreed. A referendum held now - ideally one with campaigning strictly prohibited and held on as short notice as practicable - would be based on what was actually known rather than conjecture. I would vote Remain, but if Leave won at least we know it would have won based on the actual situation and everything good and bad about it rather than conjecture and lies written on the side of a coach.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. We won't know the results of what would happen after Brexit, until after it happened. All we know now is that the "have cake and eat it" scenario painted by the Brexit Campaigners was a damned lie. But anyone with half a brain knew that at the time.

Howardh · 16 Jan 2019

This is a theoretical question as I know she won't - could May withdraw A50 but give notice that it could be restarted at any time, or would withdrawal be a fait accompli and would need a referendum to be restarted?

Bletchleyite · 16 Jan 2019

Howardh said:
This is a theoretical question as I know she won't - could May withdraw A50 but give notice that it could be restarted at any time, or would withdrawal be a fait accompli and would need a referendum to be restarted?

No referendum is required to issue Article 50, that was the Government's choice.

Bletchleyite · 16 Jan 2019

AM9 said:
This may not be a war situation

Depending how this goes it wouldn't surprise me if it actually became one. No, I'm not joking; civil war has started for less than this.

trash80 · 16 Jan 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Depending how this goes it wouldn't surprise me if it actually became one. No, I'm not joking; civil war has started for less than this.

Yes but as long as we only fight on Sundays and weekdays we should win.

nidave · 16 Jan 2019

Bletchleyite said:
Depending how this goes it wouldn't surprise me if it actually became one. No, I'm not joking; civil war has started for less than this.

Considering the general age of leave voters many in retirement I'm not sure their hips would hold out.

Then there is the thugs and edl lot who will use any excuse for violence.

AM9 · 16 Jan 2019

nidave said:
... Then there is the thugs and edl lot who will use any excuse for violence.

My sentiment exactly. All these vox pops saying that there will be 'violence in the streets', are from 'spokespersons' for the leavers who will use the threat of violence by proxy, or from the general right-wing extremists who see the narrative that our problems are caused by migration as just an extension of their incitement of racial hatred.
This is no repeat of a poll tax riot, much as some would like to give that impression.

nidave · 16 Jan 2019

This is rather interesting... UK government debt is no potentially means government debt is no longer considered a safe investment... That's going to cause the cost of borrowing to shoot up.

Currently, EU banks in Britain don’t need to set aside extra capital to cover losses on their own government debt, as they’re assumed to be so safe they carry a “zero” risk weight. That deal would end if Britain leaves without a deal, according to a ‘statutory instrument’ issues last year.

Q: Did the FPC ask the government to do this?

Carney says it did not - this is a mechanical consequence of the UK leaving the EU.

Baker is concerned about the explosion in government debt since the financial crisis a decade ago, and fears problems ahead.

BoE policymaker Richard Sharp weighs in, concurring with Baker that government debt can turn from safe to risky.

Mark Carney: Sterling rebound reflects expectations that no-deal Brexit less likely - business live

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...s-live?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

bramling · 16 Jan 2019

EM2 said:
Donald Tusk has said if there's no appetite for no deal, and no-one supports the deal, then there is only one sensible option left. Reading between the lines, that would be to remain.

Who needs a leave campaign when there’s the rather sinister Tusk on TV slyly smiling and suggesting the British people should do what they’re told...

nidave said:
Then there is the thugs and edl lot who will use any excuse for violence.

Remind us of anywhere?...

nidave · 16 Jan 2019

bramling said:
Remind us of anywhere?...

You seem to be the one advocating violence. I've spent my life trying to stop it.

YorkshireBear · 16 Jan 2019

It is impossible to hide from the quantity of comments online that say if brexit is cancelled there will be violence in the streets. Whether these people are keyboard warriors or serious remains to be seen. I sense the keyboard option.

trash80 · 16 Jan 2019

It only takes a small proportion to be real headbangers for it to be a real problem though

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