Cascading: What train will go where after electrification?

[Class83]

Ok by early 2020s

ECML, GWML + MML HSTs to Scrap
Mark 4s to Anglia (Mark 3s to scrap) with any spares to charter operators.
222s to Scotrail for Aberdeen/Inverness services (reform to 5/6 car)
IEPs for ECML/GWML/MML (if excess after HS2 bimodes can replace voyagers on XC)
220s/221s stay with XC, Virgin transfer to XC if new 390s are built.

 

[jopsuk]

• 6x 7 car Class 222's
• 17x 5 car Class 222's
• 4x 4 car Class 222's

The 222 fleet in total compromises of 54 driving vehicles and 131 intermediate vehicles.

Where do you get that 131 intermediates?

• 6x7 car = 6x5 = 30 intermediates
• 17x5 car = 17x3 = 51 intermediates
• 4x4 car = 4x2 = 8 intermediates

That makes 89 intermediates
This could give e.g. 19 5 car units and 8 6 car

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Where do you get that 131 intermediates?

• 6x7 car = 6x5 = 30 intermediates
• 17x5 car = 17x3 = 51 intermediates
• 4x4 car = 4x2 = 8 intermediates

That makes 89 intermediates
This could give e.g. 19 5 car units and 8 6 car

sorry must have added part of the Mark III fleet to the total, apologies.

 

[sprinterguy]

If IEP train sets were to be ordered as a replacement fleet for the whole MML then I guess it would make sense to standardise on 9 car lengths* for the Nottingham/Sheffield fast services and five car for the semi fast services and eliminate the non standard 4 and 6 car lengths.

Given the fairly flexible way that the Midland Mainline operates at present (With a mix of different train lengths and joining and splitting of short units at St Pancras), a squadron fleet of 5-car IEPs, doubled up at peak times, sounds more realistic to me. Bear in mind that a 5-car IEP is expected to have only slightly fewer seats (Similar standard class capacity but a reduction in first class) than a 7-car Meridian.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Why would a long distance TOC run electrified services in a mix of long and short formations though? Surely they'd just standardise on 9x26m or 10x23m and just run them at that length all of the time, since the costs of running electric sets are far lower than diesel?

Though there's still benefits to be gained from joining and splitting short sets to meet peak demand in terms of reduced track access charges, energy consumption and mileage based wear and tear by running shorter trains off peak.

 

[edwin_m]

Can a 10-car set of 25m stock fit in St Pancras? I thought a 10-car Meridian was just about the limit.

 

[swt_passenger]

Given the fairly flexible way that the Midland Mainline operates at present (With a mix of different train lengths and joining and splitting of short units at St Pancras), a squadron fleet of 5-car IEPs, doubled up at peak times, sounds more realistic to me. Bear in mind that a 5-car IEP is expected to have only slightly fewer seats (Similar standard class capacity but a reduction in first class) than a 7-car Meridian.

Roger Ford's latest CP5 rolling stock table, (in the 'speculation' section), proposes the MML getting 125 mph EMUs, comprised of 175 vehicles in 5 car formation, so 35 units.

 

[phil281]

It's more that the SETs are definitely replacing all the EC fleet. So work from that reality...

I don't understand why the 91's-Mk4's need replacing? They were refurbished to a high standard recently and are perfectly suited to the route they operate. Why not put the meridians on the ECML to replace the HST's and boost capacity IEPS on the MML when it is electrified??? Just seems a political fudge and you are going to end up with unsuitable stock on both routes.

 

[NotATrainspott]

I don't understand why the 91's-Mk4's need replacing? They were refurbished to a high standard recently and are perfectly suited to the route they operate. Why not put the meridians on the ECML to replace the HST's and boost capacity IEPS on the MML when it is electrified??? Just seems a political fudge and you are going to end up with unsuitable stock on both routes.

That misses the point of the IEP on East Coast entirely. The vast majority of passenger kilometres on East Coast happen under the wires - London to Leeds, York, Newcastle and Edinburgh (+Glasgow) but there is a desire to run self-powered trains extending off of this network to places like Aberdeen, Inverness, Lincoln and in future to Middlesborough or suchlike. If you used 222s on the ECML you would be running as a diesel train all the way from King's Cross to these places despite there being wires available, just as these places are currently served by HSTs that rather inefficiently cannot use the wires above them. There's no point shifting stock about without solving this problem.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Roger Ford's latest CP5 rolling stock table, (in the 'speculation' section), proposes the MML getting 125 mph EMUs, comprised of 175 vehicles in 5 car formation, so 35 units.

Interesting, I will have to download the magazine and have a read. Another advantage that IEP will have over 225's is that a 2-3 of the five car units could be Bi-modes allowing the daily extensions beyond Corby to Oakham and Melton Mowbary to be maintained, I expecet any other extensions beyond the core MML (like the summer Saturday service to Scarbourough) will cease with electrification.

 

[Class377/5]

Can a 10-car set of 25m stock fit in St Pancras? I thought a 10-car Meridian was just about the limit.

10x 23m or 12x 20m is the max currently.

 

[edwin_m]

Interesting, I will have to download the magazine and have a read. Another advantage that IEP will have over 225's is that a 2-3 of the five car units could be Bi-modes allowing the daily extensions beyond Corby to Oakham and Melton Mowbary to be maintained, I expecet any other extensions beyond the core MML (like the summer Saturday service to Scarbourough) will cease with electrification.

The runs via Melton are essentially positioning moves to get the units to and from depot in Derby. I'd be very surprised if these continue after electrification, since as you say the other non-core routes would go so the Melton service on its own would have to justify a sub-fleet of bi-modes, and I'm still convinced straight EMUs are a better choice for MML anyway. Unless Corby-Syston was electrified in the meantime, which is just possible mainly for freight reasons.

 

[Metobusfan]

I too doubt the 225s will go to the MML, the obvious penchant for IEP orders associated with mainlines and newly electrified (GW) very strongly suggests a follow on order.



91s probably to scrap, Mk4s into the redundant coaching pool.



Replacing newish fast meridians with them seems daft. IEP in mixture of lengths seems blindingly obvious.





As for cascades, with EGIP occurring, what new EMUs (and when ?) will SR need and what DMUs does that free ?



My cascade, based largely on OCD is:

- New SR EMUs release 170/3s to Chiltern.

- Chiltern 172s to LM, with electrified Chase (which all 350 so 323s do XCity and Bromsgrove), releases some 170 /5/6 to XC which gives it's 170/3s to Chiltern.

- Ex GOBLIN 172s to LM / Ukfield (latter as 171s).



I'd like to see the 319s stay in the South where their DV capability can support DC to AC switchover. Not sure how to "make that happen".



Class 365s to North instead ? Or could South Eastern use them as 465s ?

Be nice to see 365 back on the South Eastern network

 

[SpacePhoenix]

What's the remaining life span like for the 91s and Mk4s?

 

[The Ham]

What's the remaining life span like for the 91s and Mk4s?

Assuming the same lifespan of upto 2030 for the Mark 3's I would guess upto 2035 for the Mark 4's.

However, the "upto" is variable, in that if they need lots of work to reach that age it could more cost effective to scrap them short of this point. However they are likely to be in good enough shape to justify a full referb with another upto 15 years of life after the introduction of IEP (although I would have thought that HS2 in 2030 may provide a natrual end date for them, depending on what passenger patterns do).

 

[Mark62]

After privatisation the majority of spare carriages went straight to the scrapyard. I vividly remember hundreds of mark 1 and 2 stock rotting away in the sidings at Newcastle and other areas. There wasn't a shortage of locomotives and proper rolling stock(carriages ) until privatisation. Many of the current stock bought of the taxpayers pocket will be cascaded straight to sacral and into the pockets of the private sector. Yet another transference of public money to the private sector. I know I keep on about this but I have to travel on so many cattle trains and witness the slow and wilful destruction of our railways which started in 1979

 

[southern442]

looks likely to be LO stock then

Don't forget that TPE apparently still need stock to cover for the 170's that are going to chiltern - a very stupid move in my opinion.

How far-fetched is the idea of using old carriage bodyshells as the basis for new units? How much money would this save as opposed to completely new units?

 

[northwichcat]

Don't forget that TPE apparently still need stock to cover for the 170's that are going to chiltern - a very stupid move in my opinion.

According to our new Rail Minister the solution to the problem is to send additional EMUs to Northern. Given Northern won't need more than 14 x additional EMUs until Blackpool is electrified that won't free up any diesel stock before December 2016.

The only logical solution I can think of which involves more EMUs for Northern would be to give Northern a couple of extra 319s, then they sub-lease a couple of 323s to LM who sublease a couple of 350s to TPE to remove the need for TPE to have a weekend 6 car 185 diagram on Scottish services and to regularly use 185s to fill in for a shortage of 350s.

Then to let Chiltern take 4 x 170/3s and keep 5 x 170/3s at TPE until Blackpool to Manchester Airport service goes over to EMU, releasing 5 x 185s which can in turn release the 5 x 170/3s.

Although there is still the issue that the 5 x 185s released off Blackpool services were supposed to provide service enhancements on North TPE between the opening of the Ordsall Chord (Dec 2016) and North TPE electrification (Dec 2018.)

How far-fetched is the idea of using old carriage bodyshells as the basis for new units? How much money would this save as opposed to completely new units?

Well one company seems to think the D78s can be turned in the DEMUs for the National Rail network for 1/3 of the cost of new builds: http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1862847&postcount=87

 

[SpacePhoenix]

As stock gets moved around as lines get electrified, i wouldn't be surprised to see LM get all of TPE's 350s and TPE replace the 350s with either a larger fleet of EMUs or DMUs (depending on how much of their routes gets electrified)

 

[williampgwebb]

Class 365 Networker would be great on the London Paddington to Oxford service. Class 165 & Class 166 DMUs moving to operate Local routes in the South West. What EMUs would cover Thames Valley services?

 

[Manchester77]

Class 365 Networker would be great on the London Paddington to Oxford service. Class 165 & Class 166 DMUs moving to operate Local routes in the South West. What EMUs would cover Thames Valley services?

FGW have been told to prepare for cascaded 319s however with Thames Valley services operated by FGW a having to run on the fast lines 110mph would be ideal hence why 387s have been rumoured. The 165&6s are set to operate in the South West as network rail are performing clearance works there.

 

[edwin_m]

Do we know what happens to the assorted 150s and 153s and maybe some 158s displaced by the Turbos going west?

 

[northwichcat]

Do we know what happens to the assorted 150s and 153s and maybe some 158s displaced by the Turbos going west?

Considering:
1. The CP4 HLOS identifying a need for around 180 extra carriages in total which weren't delivered in CP4
2. The Pacers being at the end of their lives
3. The 153s likely being reformed in 2 car trains when they are made accessible
4. A new DMU order is unlikely

All the released DMUs will likely be either used to replace Pacers/single 153s or add additional capacity to routes.

I imagine FGW will try and keep hold of as many Sprinters as possible that are released from other routes and not renew the lease for their small class 143 fleet.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

FGW have been told to prepare for cascaded 319s however with Thames Valley services operated by FGW a having to run on the fast lines 110mph would be ideal hence why 387s have been rumoured. The 165&6s are set to operate in the South West as network rail are performing clearance works there.

The plan for a long time has been 100mph 4 car EMUs going to Thames Valley initially with an option in CP6 for 110mph capable units or/and 5 car EMUs. The option of going straight to 110mph units was looked at but then dismissed.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The plan for a long time has been 100mph 4 car EMUs going to Thames Valley initially with an option in CP6 for 110mph capable units or/and 5 car EMUs. The option of going straight to 110mph units was looked at but then dismissed.

It's still not clear what will work the short Thames Valley branches, for which 4-car 319s are probably overkill.
Reading-Basingstoke seems to be at the end of the GW electrification schedule, and the Kennet Valley services are still up in the air (ie wires beyond Newbury or DMUs on through services).
Then there's the initial east-west service to consider.
DMUs might still be needed in the area for quite a while.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Considering:
1. The CP4 HLOS identifying a need for around 180 extra carriages in total which weren't delivered in CP4
2. The Pacers being at the end of their lives
3. The 153s likely being reformed in 2 car trains when they are made accessible
4. A new DMU order is unlikely

All the released DMUs will likely be either used to replace Pacers/single 153s or add additional capacity to routes.

What's the remaining lifespan like for all the 15x classes?

 

[59CosG95]

What's the remaining lifespan like for all the 15x classes?

I'd say that the 150s would be the first to go, then the 153s and 155s, then the 156s, and finally my favourites of the 15x group: the 158s and 159s. This is in part due to their construction timeline, but also, the 159s get a lot more TLC from SWT than the 150s get from any of their operators.

And another thing-what with EGIP happening, where will all of ScotRail's redundant 170s and 158s go?

 

[158722]

And another thing-what with EGIP happening, where will all of ScotRail's redundant 170s and 158s go?

The first EGIP stage between Edinburgh and Glasgow, should see a maximum of 16 170s made available, however, some of them will be retained for extra capacity. I really doubt SR will let 170s go, although they perhaps could be lent on to release the ex-Hull Trains quartet. Otherwise, I foresee some ex-E&G 170s replacing 158s on the Fife Circle and Dunblane services (until these go electric as well), with some 158s being released (the ex-Wessex/SWT 8?) and perhaps a few 158s might allow a couple of 156s to be displaced, from say the Shotts route.

When Dunblane gets wired, something like another 14-16 units should be released, with my guess being that some/all of the remaining Haymarket 158s (726-741) will get a refurbishment and with the West Highland cleared for the class, will be deployed there to displace 156s. The East Kilbride and Barrhead wiring plans will directly see off a number of 156s directly, with either 158s or 170s used to displace the remaining 156s from the GSW and Stranraer routes, following due route clearance for these classes.

In summary, Scotland to release all 48 156s by the end of the decade, plus possible small numbers of 158s and 170s, more if TFS manage to acquire extra long distance trains for the Highland mainline and Aberdeen, with ex-FGW HSTs (unlikely) or VWC 221s (very possible if WC get any extra new build Pendos or whatever) mentioned.

 

[Manchester77]

What's the remaining lifespan like for all the 15x classes?

Depends on the work they get done, if the 153s don't receive any DDA work (porterbrook have a brochure on how a big loo and other DDA mods can be made!) then they'll be withdrawn most likely since quite a few of them have a sag in the middle of their bodies. It's widely agreed that the 158s and 159s will be the last of them to go.

 

[21C101]

One I am watching is 158s going to the Barnstaple line and being replaced on their current duties by 165s which is due to happen after GWML outer suburban electrification.

As 158s dont go to Exmouth that will mean an hourly 158 from Barnstaple to St James Park and an Hourly 158/9 from Exeter St Davids to Waterloo. Will the obvious solution of a transfer of the Barnstaple line to SWT with through services happen?

 

[Qwerty133]

I'd say that the 150s would be the first to go, then the 153s and 155s, then the 156s, and finally my favourites of the 15x group: the 158s and 159s. This is in part due to their construction timeline, but also, the 159s get a lot more TLC from SWT than the 150s get from any of their operators.

And another thing-what with EGIP happening, where will all of ScotRail's redundant 170s and 158s go?

153s first, then 150s, followed by 155s with 156s and 158s lasting for quite a long time to come.

 

[455driver]

One I am watching is 158s going to the Barnstaple line and being replaced on their current duties by 165s which is due to happen after GWML outer suburban electrification.

As 158s dont go to Exmouth that will mean an hourly 158 from Barnstaple to St James Park and an Hourly 158/9 from Exeter St Davids to Waterloo. Will the obvious solution of a transfer of the Barnstaple line to SWT with through services happen?

If the Barney branch should be handed over to SWT simply because it will be worked by 158s then why have FGW retained the Cardiff-Pompey route?
What train works the route has no bearing on which franchise operates the route. :roll:

Oh and this weeks talk is that the 158s will work a semi fast Barney to Axminster service, giving Exeter to Axminster a half hourly service. There will also be a separate Barney to Exeter stopping service giving the Barney line 2 trains per hour, how that works with the (lack of) signalling on the line is still open to debate.