Class 170s/185s to Irish Rail?

[dubscottie]

The ROSCOs will have to be very careful in case their trains get stuck in Eire without a customer, nor a return plan.

You never know.. If IR like them, they might buy them! If the only mods are new bogies and fitment of CAWS, then I see no reason why they could not return to the UK.

 

[yorksrob]

A train that hasn't even been prototyped and a noddy train... if IE have the nous to secure our high quality DMUs now because of our negligent management, good luck to them. We'll be left with the noddy trains and we'll deserve them.

No, London and the powers that be will deserve noddy trains. Normal passengers in the provinces who have little leverage over the Government in London will be left with the noddy trains.

 

[Bletchleyite]

No, London and the powers that be will deserve noddy trains. Normal passengers in the provinces who have little leverage over the Government in London will be left with the noddy trains.

Out of the 6 Class 230s presently on order (I think that's right, or is it 7?), 3 of them will see service in the South East.

 

[Jonny]

I've just had a brainwave - send the Hull Trains Class 180s once they come off lease.

 

[najaB]

I've just had a brainwave - send the Hull Trains Class 180s once they come off lease.

I don't think that even Ireland is a safe enough distance!

 

[F Great Eastern]

I've just had a brainwave - send the Hull Trains Class 180s once they come off lease.

There's enough ALSTOM poor quality rolling stock off service there at the moment - the 5 ALSTOM EMUs already there basically only saw a handful of years on-off service before being withdrawn at 7 years old.

 

[yorksrob]

Out of the 6 Class 230s presently on order (I think that's right, or is it 7?), 3 of them will see service in the South East.

I wasn't even thinking of 230's - I was envisaging us getting left with Merseyrail pacers.

 

[dubscottie]

There's enough ALSTOM poor quality rolling stock off service there at the moment - the 5 ALSTOM EMUs already there basically only saw a handful of years on-off service before being withdrawn at 7 years old.

Was just about to post the same!

The Alstom Darts should have been turned into baked bean cans years ago.

The 2700s were not bad units to travel on. Pity they were so unreliable and a few of them didn't like Co Wexford. They kept uncoupling on the same bit of line near Enniscorthy and were banned from that route soon after.

 

[DarloRich]

Can we stop trying to give away good quality stock like class 185 units to the Irish? The hatred of these units on this board beggars belief.

They can buy our cast off Pacers.

 

[najaB]

Can we stop trying to give away good quality stock like class 185 units to the Irish?

I'm sure that if a UK TOC makes an offer, the ROSCO would be more than happy to lease them onshore.

 

[Chester1]

A train that hasn't even been prototyped and a noddy train... if IE have the nous to secure our high quality DMUs now because of our negligent management, good luck to them. We'll be left with the noddy trains and we'll deserve them.

The 185s are being replaced by Mark Vs and 802s!

I don't understand the "I will believe it when I see it" mentality towards new stock for TPE and Northern. Some of the stock has already arrived in the UK and is continuing arrive at a fast rate. Do people really think that Roscos, ToCs and the DfT are going to plan on the basis that they won't be in service in a years time because of software teething issues? That TfW should not sign in a deal to lease Pacers (subject to Northern releasing them) because they believe the Pacers will be needed into 2020 because Northern are currently short forming services? There is a case for Northern temporarily leasing 185s if they think the PRM work will not be completed on time but they are expensive stock to run and if they need more long term stock then extra 195s would be a better choice. If they want them them for a year or two they will have to sign a deal fast.

 

[dubscottie]

Can we stop trying to give away good quality stock like class 185 units to the Irish? The hatred of these units on this board beggars belief.

They can buy our cast off Pacers.

A pacer for a 3 hour InterCity journey? Nah..

They might be useful around Cork but thats not where Irish Rail need stock. Its Dublin, in particular the lines into Heuston.

 

[F Great Eastern]

I'm sure that if a UK TOC makes an offer, the ROSCO would be more than happy to lease them onshore.

The problem is that the offer needs to be a medium to long term offer for it to be attractive to a ROSCO and I just can't see a UK TOC offering anything more than a year or two with perhaps an option for a year or two more which may not be taken up.

If Irish Rail can offer for example a 5 year lease with an option for more then that is likely to be more attractive to a ROSCO who may also be in pole position to assist with financing any new rolling stock order.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The problem is that the offer needs to be a medium to long term offer for it to be attractive to a ROSCO and I just can't see a UK TOC offering anything more than a year or two with perhaps an option for a year or two more which may not be taken up.

Much as I think longer Class 158 formations are a better way, Liverpool-Nottingham moved to TPE would provide that.

 

[najaB]

The problem is that the offer needs to be a medium to long term offer for it to be attractive to a ROSCO and I just can't see a UK TOC offering anything more than a year or two with perhaps an option for a year or two more which may not be taken up.

Which puts paid to the idea that there's a massive demand for DMUs in the UK. If they needed them badly enough they would make the ROSCOs an offer they couldn't refuse.

 

[dubscottie]

If Irish Rail can offer for example a 5 year lease with an option for more then that is likely to be more attractive to a ROSCO who may also be in pole position to assist with financing any new rolling stock order.

Irish Rail don't lease stock however, they buy. The last leased stock IR used was a couple of NIR 80 class in the 1980/90s.

 

[Jonny]

The 185s are being replaced by Mark Vs and 802s!

I don't understand the "I will believe it when I see it" mentality towards new stock for TPE and Northern. Some of the stock has already arrived in the UK and is continuing arrive at a fast rate. Do people really think that Roscos, ToCs and the DfT are going to plan on the basis that they won't be in service in a years time because of software teething issues? That TfW should not sign in a deal to lease Pacers (subject to Northern releasing them) because they believe the Pacers will be needed into 2020 because Northern are currently short forming services? There is a case for Northern temporarily leasing 185s if they think the PRM work will not be completed on time but they are expensive stock to run and if they need more long term stock then extra 195s would be a better choice. If they want them them for a year or two they will have to sign a deal fast.

Maybe, but given the issues in introducing the Northern Class 195s and the TPE Mark 5As, and the electromagnetic interference issues involving LNER Azumas (which also affects the TPE 802s), I think the cynicism is well justified.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Which puts paid to the idea that there's a massive demand for DMUs in the UK. If they needed them badly enough they would make the ROSCOs an offer they couldn't refuse.

There is going to be a lot of demand from 1st January 2020 and it's quite possible that demand will outstrip supply when all the PRM expired stock is taken out of use due to delays with the 230, 769 and Aventra EMU fleets which mean older DMUs cannot be cascaded as planned to replace non PRM compliant barred stock.

The problem is that such demand from 1st January 2020 is only going to be short term demand until Bombardier get their house in order and the bi-mode units arrive and start to get bedded in, so whilst there will be a shortage of DMU stock, it will only really be for a transitional period of 12-18 months and given a choice between a further 12-18 month lease for a ROSCO of a 5 year lease with Irish Rail, they're always going to go with the later.

Irish Rail don't lease stock however, they buy. The last leased stock IR used was a couple of NIR 80 class in the 1980/90s.

Well in the past yes, but the NTA will most likely be directly procuring the stock and the first lot of trains they procure are going to be second hand from the UK by the looks of it, so it's not unreasonable to suggest they may look to financing options for new stock too.

 

[bramling]

Which puts paid to the idea that there's a massive demand for DMUs in the UK. If they needed them badly enough they would make the ROSCOs an offer they couldn't refuse.

Depends how one looks at it. If you’re a no-growth TOC who is happy to run the absolute minimum train length with people left behind on platforms on a regular basis, want to pay the absolute minimum in leasing fees, and are happy to always be running on a complete shoestring with your depots / control staff constantly having to juggle just to deliver even the most basic core service, then there isn’t a DMU shortage!

 

[dubscottie]

Well in the past yes, but the NTA will most likely be directly procuring the stock and the first lot of trains they procure are going to be second hand from the UK by the looks of it, so it's not unreasonable to suggest they may look to financing options for new stock too.

Unlikely. The NTA/TFI may fund future stock as part of a National Development Plan, IR will still write the spec, order and own them. The CIE companies while state owned, are fiercely independent.

The only way the NTA would directly procure stock is if it was for a franchise operation like the Luas or the new private bus operator.

 

[najaB]

If you’re a no-growth TOC who is happy to run the absolute minimum train length with people left behind on platforms on a regular basis, want to pay the absolute minimum in leasing fees, and are happy to always be running on a complete shoestring with your depots / control staff constantly having to juggle just to deliver even the most basic core service, then there isn’t a DMU shortage!

Yes curiously, Northern (that's who you were talking about, right?) have ordered new stock.

 

[158756]

Which puts paid to the idea that there's a massive demand for DMUs in the UK. If they needed them badly enough they would make the ROSCOs an offer they couldn't refuse.

There is no one in the UK in a position to lease any DMUs. Because of the ridiculous way our railway works that is not the same as there being no need for them.

We will be keeping many non compliant units in service beyond 2020 with cancellations until all the work is finished. We are keeping hundreds of units older than 170s, never mind the 185s. Sprinters will be 40 years old soon. Northern's rolling stock plan will still have 2 car trains running round the major cities even if everything goes well. There's massive risk in Wales' plans being delivered on time. The East Midlands need something if the franchise is ever let.

But none of these massively subsidised TOCs are able to secure rolling stock above the franchise requirements, no one is prepared to think even a year or two ahead, and by the time the DfT do anything all the trains they could lease will be in Ireland.

 

[Chester1]

Maybe, but given the issues in introducing the Northern Class 195s and the TPE Mark 5As, and the electromagnetic interference issues involving LNER Azumas (which also affects the TPE 802s), I think the cynicism is well justified.

Cynicism is a state of mind, skepticism is evidence based. It is extremely unlikely that the software issues will delay the 195s and Mark Vs by a year and a deal can be made with TfW that allows Northern to choose to releasing pacers if / when the 195s enter service next year. If Eversholt lease some of the 22x185s to Irish Rail then TPE could still sub lease some to Northern until the leases expire, which I think is in intervals between October 2019 and April 2020. This would provides more leeway to get the refurbishments done and the new stock into service. There is 12 months leeway for Northern with all of its current stock and 10 months for TPE with 5 further months with 185s leaving in batches. The franchise agreement allows TPE to choose to hand back 15 of the remaining 29 x 185s from January 2022, with any saving being paid to DfT, although in reality they would probably only ditch them for more 802s. Eversholt do not get a say in that decision, it's not surprising they want to find new homes for some of the 185s.

 

[sprinterguy]

Porterbrook have apparently said they can offer the following:
- 8x 3 car Class 170
- 4x 2 car Class 170

That seems incredibly unlikely given that the numbers stated suggest that it's the self same stock (ex-Greater Anglia) that already has an agreed lease with Transport for Wales.

The Porterbrook owned West Midlands 170s are also due to become available in far greater numbers, but I suspect that the timescale lies far outside the scope of this discussion.

 

[F Great Eastern]

That seems incredibly unlikely given that the numbers stated suggest that it's the self same stock (ex-Greater Anglia) that already has an agreed lease with Transport for Wales.

The Porterbrook owned West Midlands 170s are also due to become available in far greater numbers, but I suspect that the timescale lies far outside the scope of this discussion.

The stock was described as being a mixture of various specifications as well as a mixture of 2/3 car which would lead me to believe it is coming from more than one TOC.

There's also talk at the moment that GA may be looking to holding on to their 170s for longer than originally planned due possible delays with Aventras trains, as long as Transport for Wales can get hold of some other stock to take their place.

 

[bramling]

Yes curiously, Northern (that's who you were talking about, right?) have ordered new stock.

I wasn’t specifically referring to Northern as similar could be directed at most of the DMU-operating TOCs, certainly in the last round of franchising. It’s hard to think of many diesel operators who don’t run their DMU fleet into the ground. SWT is the only one which really springs to mind, perhaps Chiltern and Southern to some extent.

As regards Northern how much of the new diesel fleet is accounted for by Pacer replacement, which is at least partly a politically motivated policy?

 

[centraltrains]

All I can think, is the rather selfish (& technically inaccurate) line of:

Don't steal our trains Ireland

 

[Taunton]

I suspect the whole story, after quite possibly some meetings they asked for in Dublin, has been put around by the ROSCO PR teams to encourage both TOCs and the DfT into a "buy now while stocks last" frenzy. Commercially, doing that seems quite astute.

Amazing that it can be contemplated, and is financially worthwhile, running 6-car 185s on what are effectively Dublin outer suburban commuter services (which is where the growth is), where TPE are incapable of running more than 3-car sets packed with standees on Newcastle-Liverpool peak services (I couldn't even get in one at Darlington one afternoon), which thread multiple metropolitan areas, Greater Manchester alone having a population which exceeds that of Ireland.

I did think that bogies were one of the longer lead time items in rolling stock production. You are not going to get new ones made up over a weekend. It's not just a case of pressing the wheels out a bit on the axles ...

 

[dubscottie]

That seems incredibly unlikely given that the numbers stated suggest that it's the self same stock (ex-Greater Anglia) that already has an agreed lease with Transport for Wales.

The Porterbrook owned West Midlands 170s are also due to become available in far greater numbers, but I suspect that the timescale lies far outside the scope of this discussion.

Agreed. Dick Fearn laughed when the 170 was put forward for the ICR. Completely unsuitable for Ireland.

 

[Chester1]

I wasn’t specifically referring to Northern as similar could be directed at most of the DMU-operating TOCs, certainly in the last round of franchising. It’s hard to think of many diesel operators who don’t run their DMU fleet into the ground. SWT is the only one which really springs to mind, perhaps Chiltern and Southern to some extent.

As regards Northern how much of the new diesel fleet is accounted for by Pacer replacement, which is at least partly a politically motivated policy?

New stock are not direct replacements, most services currently run by pacers will be run by 150s as part of an internal cascade. They are getting 58 x 195s and 43 x 331s (vs 79 x 142s and 23 x 144s). Despite the GWR and Scotrail issues Northern has already received most of the 47 cascaded DMUs due by end of 2019. Short forming is primarily due to the delay in electrification and 769s, and should end by May at the latest.

There are 13 Mark V sets due by end of 2019 and some of the 19 X 802s. In the worst case that IR take all 22 x 185s at the earliest opportunity then TPE would only need to match their departures between October 2019 and April 2020 to provide increased capacity due to new units being much larger. Considering they were due to enter service from this month it is still an extremely large buffer even when compared with recent delays. I might be wrong but I think all the 185s are actually leased until 31/12/2019 i.e. TPE have more discretion than the baseline in the franchise agreement. In which case at worst TPE could lose 18 units in January 2020 and the remaining 4 by 1st April 2020.