EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by ainsworth74, 23 Jun 2016.

  1. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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    Short selling the Pound and then manipulating it through major sociopolitical change is a fairly complex and involved way of achieving something you can almost as easily achieve by short-selling a failing large business, though.

    (Personally I think short-selling is evil and needs to be banned - betting on failure is not how things should work - in the stock market one should bet on and invest in success)
     
  2. Grumpy Git

    Grumpy Git Member

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    Those that preach that we have been blessed by not joining the Euro fail to tell anyone uninformed that the Great British Pound is so good, it's worth 28% less than the Euro from when it was created.
     
  3. Bletchleyite

    Bletchleyite Veteran Member

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  4. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

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    Some TOCs have taken advantage of the futures market by hedging their diesel purchases, effectively agreeing to buy their future fuel at a fixed price. Although they'll end up paying more on average, the predictability means they can build that figure into their finances with someone else taking the hit if prices go up (and the benefit if they go down).

    One possible solution is to put a very small percentage tax on financial transactions, which wouldn't much affect those who are using them to achieve benefits in the "real" economy but would make it less profitable to trade the very large amounts that are usually needed to make a profit on speculation. Many EU countries are in favour of this but the UK is opposed due to the effect on the City, much of which is just pushing money around to nobody else's benefit.

    One consequence of Brexit could be that the EU introduces taxes of this type on transactions in London on behalf of the EU countries, which suffer from the speculation but don't get any of the profit. The UK would obviously not do the same for domestic transactions, so we would continue to be damaged by the speculation but get less from taxation of City profits.
     
  5. Grumpy Git

    Grumpy Git Member

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    I know I'm probably being naive, but I detest that money is "made" by traders in the city moving virtual pieces of paper around, (which we all end-up paying for, the money doesn't come out of thin air).

    I wonder if George Stephenson, Isambard Kingdom Brunel and their peers spin in their graves at how this country has allowed it's manufacturing industry to almost disappear? John Major put the final nail in the UK locomotive building coffin.
     
  6. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    Yup. Spinning in their graves.

    Source: https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-manufacturing-statistics/
    [​IMG]

    (Image shows that the UK is the world's ninth largest manufacturing economy by total output).

    Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Recent_trends

    The most serious decline has been recent, and driven largely by things like - oh, I don't know - uncertainty about our future trading relationships?
     
    Last edited: 1 Nov 2019
  7. Ianno87

    Ianno87 Established Member

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    Must-ve been about 10 years ago now, but Clarkson-era BBC Top Gear did a fantastic piece on "here's all the stuff we still manufacture in the UK". It was a lot.
     
  8. Grumpy Git

    Grumpy Git Member

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    Well when I manufacture stuff I can say that virtually non of the components come from a UK factory (unfortunately). Lots of components have (what were) UK names, but sadly these have mostly been brought-out by central European companies and the factories in the UK closed.
     
  9. JonasB

    JonasB Member

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    What did Major do?
     
  10. Peter Kelford

    Peter Kelford Member

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    Close BREL is what is meant...
     
  11. edwin_m

    edwin_m Veteran Member

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    What was the Derby BREL carriage works is still open.

    Killing British loco building was probably more about selling the freight business to the Americans who then imported the Class 66, whereas BR might have ordered domestically as they did with the 60.
     
  12. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    Though, if that was the most economically prudent thing to do then a UK based company would probably have done the same.
     
  13. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    And that's kinda what you'd expect with the growth in free trade over the last few decades. These days, a far, far, higher proportion of goods across the World are shipped to other countries than was the case, say, 50 years ago. That means that, no matter which country you live in, you can expect that a higher proportion of stuff that companies (and people) use will have been produced abroad - and likewise, a higher proportion of the stuff that companies produce will be consumed abroad rather than in your own country.

    Of course, in the case of the UK, that effect is compounded by a higher proportion of our output and employment becoming service-based rather than manufacturing-based.
     
  14. Peter Kelford

    Peter Kelford Member

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    For further reading:
    Globalisation
    Climate change
     
  15. DynamicSpirit

    DynamicSpirit Established Member

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    It's also worth pointing out that a decline in manufacturing output as a % of GDP - and therefore a decline in the % of the population engaged in manufacturing - is likely to be an inevitable consequence of growing prosperity - because as countries get more wealthy, people are invariably going to want to spend a higher proportion of their incomes on services. If you think about - say - 150 years ago when people were much poorer, for most households, pretty much the entire household income would be spent either on food or on goods that need to be manufactured. Manufacturing would therefore constitute a very high proportion of GDP.

    But as technology improves and people move beyond a subsistence-type existence, you reach a point where most of the population already has most of the material goods they need or want, and therefore any further rise in living standards tends to get spent on services or experiences rather than on physical goods. Hence manufactured goods declines as a % of GDP. That's nothing to think bad of - just a consequence of prosperity and high living standards (and despite all the austerity etc., average living standards in the UK are today waaaay higher than they were - say - 50 years ago).
     
  16. Grumpy Git

    Grumpy Git Member

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    I still find I use plenty of gear manufactured in Germany or Italy though, (even though some of the smaller component German stuff has gone to Czech Republic and more latterly China).
     
  17. JonasB

    JonasB Member

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    Thank you!
     
  18. FelixtheCat

    FelixtheCat Established Member

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    I'll let prominent leave campaigner Mr. Nigel Farage answer that question for you. Here's what he said in May 2016:
    Sources (I've given lots so that "remainer bias" can't be used as an argument):
    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/nigel-farage-wants-second-referendum-7985017
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/poli...rage-David-Cameron-unfinished-business-Brexit
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36306681
     
  19. JonasB

    JonasB Member

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    When I hear "Brexit means Brexit" and "Take back control", I sometimes wonder what the situation would have been like if remain had won with 52% of the votes. And David Cameron had announced that the people had spoken and remain means remain, and that the UK would now join Schengen, replace the pound with the euro, fully convert to SI-units and start driving on the right. What would the headlines in the Sun and the Daily Mail have been?
     
  20. FelixtheCat

    FelixtheCat Established Member

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    They'd have exploded, along with Mark Francois.
     
  21. Busaholic

    Busaholic Established Member

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    Thought I glimpsed him on TV a couple of nights back with Ann Widdecombe, but I might have confused it with a re-run of Teletubbies.
     
  22. geoffk

    geoffk Established Member

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    No, a remain win would have meant the status quo continuing, no change. Another referendum in a few years time might have been offered. What we have now is the economy being thrown up in the air, a march into the unknown with no obvious benefits except to a handful of super-rich tax-dodgers.
     
  23. ValentaFan1974

    ValentaFan1974 Member

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    No-one knows what will happen. I firmly believe apart from a few visible changes when travelling out of the UK, most Brits won’t notice any difference.
     
  24. Peter Kelford

    Peter Kelford Member

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    Arron Banks himself admits that this news outlet is a Eurosceptic one.

    David Cameron himself is a eurosceptic. I don't think he would ever do any of those things except perhaps SI units.
     
  25. MightyTRexUK

    MightyTRexUK Member

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    I see Trump is making thinly veiled threats about (paraphrasing) "If you don't change your stance on your foreign policy, stop buying Chinese routers and do exactly what I say, how and when I tell you to, the trade deal won't happen."

    I am sure I heard on R4 something along the lines of "those who voted Brexit agree that the nuclear deal is a bad thing and agree with trump" by a US senator (Will try and find it on iplayer later)
     
  26. Peter Kelford

    Peter Kelford Member

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    Britain faces a choice between being left behind technologically or losing out somewhat on a trade deal. Note that all Trump needs to do to get re-elected is not get caught on camera physically committing an 'indictable offence', or felony as they call it in the US. He is unlikely to lose even if he commits a war crime, threatens to commit a crime or incites, directs or premeditates a crime. Hardly a high bar or 'exemplary conduct'.
     
    Last edited: 15 Jan 2020
  27. geoffk

    geoffk Established Member

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    Depends on what kind of trade agreement is struck. Likely effects are longer queues at airports on re-entry; UK driving licence no longer valid and International Driving Permits required by some countries, including France (see Gov.UK website); EHIC card no longer valid so additional travel insurance required which may not cover some medical conditions; return of mobile phone roaming charges. This is just for holidays of course. Anyone wanting to work (for example a band or orchestra touring abroad) could face a new visa system as well as paperwork covering their instruments to prove they are not being imported. If we end up with no deal, all these things and worse will happen. The closer we stick to EU standards and regulations the easier it will be.
     
  28. Peter Kelford

    Peter Kelford Member

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    This will also affect those wishing to work for a short amount of time abroad (e.g. summer jobs), seasonal workers, consultants working for EU companies and others.
     
  29. ValentaFan1974

    ValentaFan1974 Member

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    Driving permits won’t take long to get from the Post Office (and not expensive either). Mobile phone companies have all said they’ve no plans to change EU roaming either.

    Yes, admittedly there will be changes and some people will be more affected or will notice more. The people who just go abroad to Spain for a week with their kids and don’t intend to drive etc won’t notice much different.... those who want to work will have to get a Visa, but then, that’s not unlike most other big non-EU countries anyway?

    Until full facts are known, it’s best to lay off the scaremongering...
     
  30. najaB

    najaB Veteran Member

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    Of course they've said that. Those nice charitable companies will continue to provide a service that costs them more without passing the charges through to their customers, just like they always do. :rolleyes:
     

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