EU Referendum: The result and aftermath...

[Senex]

What have I got in common with a Bulgarian or a Slovak compared to an Australian or American who are like us,talk like us and have a similar culture.
Being close doesn't mean anything, it's culture and attitudes and an affinity what matters and my affinity is to people who are our trusted old allies unlike France and Germany who are anything but.

It is indeed culture and affinity that matter, and whereas you feel more towards Australia and America I and many others of my acquaintance feel much more to the Europeans with whom we have a shared history (certainly not all of it a happy one) and a shared culture in terms of art, architecture, literature, music, etc. The French and particularly the Germans seem to me very much more like us than the Australians and the Americans are, but that is clearly a point where you and I are going to have to agree to differ. Our difference may well lead me to look at the EU one way, with a strong emotional attachment in addition to considerations of practical politics and economics and you in another way, with no such emotional attachment.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Yes. And now it can continue being successful at attracting inward investment, but that will benefit the UK and not the EU.

Earlier this year, or was it late last year, we sent 'not a quitter CMD' to China to negotiate deals. He couldn't negotiate for the UK but had to do the whole EU. Hopefully the next PM will be putting us first.

Investment is not zero-sum.

I keep saying this: Brexiters assume that anything that goes to the EU as a whole and not the UK means the EU is bad, instead of realising that a lot of that wealth wouldn't exist in the first place without the EU.

 

[dgl]

I may be quite young (mid 20's) but I know why I voted remain and I know that in my own personal opinion and weighing up the facts that it was the right thing to do. A load of lies from dodgy Farage, Boris or Gove or business men that only have their own agendas (probably hoping that boris gets in after the brexit vote and gives them all a big tax cut). Esp. the fact that the one big message they had on the side of their primary campaigning vehicle was a lie.

What I don't understand is all the older people demoning the younger people for generally voting remain yet seem to forget recent history in that when we joined we were not some super-nation who were great at everything, we were crap in a lot of cases.
Our policy of, well the commonwealth will buy our stuff no matter how crap it is didn't really work and our economy was in the pan (2 world wars weren't cheap).

Joining the EEC (later EU) saved our skin and as we are seeing with the markets putting us back to where we were in the first place.
We also seem to be forgetting that an EU migrant that wants to work is much better for the economy than a British person that doesn't want to, so excluding EU migrants that are a net benefit to the economy is really a great idea isn't it?

Although saying that it should make the company I work for more money as when we will no longer be able to afford holidays abroad due to the weakening pound we will have to stay in Britain and that is what they provide.

 

[Senex]

I'm honestly stunned at the vitriol being directed towards young people on this thread. I am at a loss for words for how deeply condescending some of these comments are.

Me too. Having spent my working life teaching students in a university, I found them far more open to debate and new ideas and generally far less set in their views than many of my own contemporaries. The vast majority were bright, able, and likeable people (often horribly let down by the politicians of the older generation, from their own parents age-group upwards).

 

[Mag_seven]

You've got that spot on, my daughter tells me things she's been told about how brilliant the EU is from lefty socialist worker teachers who have an agenda, I put her right.

Don't forget, there are many on the left in favour of Brexit.

 

[TheKnightWho]

I'm honestly stunned at the vitriol being directed towards young people on this thread. I am at a loss for words for how deeply condescending some of these comments are.

To be quite frank, it's because they have no intellectual arguments and they have absolutely no idea what they've let us in for.

It really is hypocrisy in the extreme, and it's very likely the Dunning-Kruger effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect

 

[DynamicSpirit]

No, but to vote "Out" is not - as the trendy left would have it - racist and it's wicked of them to say so. Are you suggesting that virtually the entire county of Cornwall or the towns and cities of Sheffield, Middlesborough, Hartlepool and Lincoln are all racists?

Please provide a link that shows either to where either someone prominent in politics has said that voting out is racist or to where sufficient members of the public have said that to justify implying that it's a widely held belief.

Clearly it would be atrocious and untrue if anyone said that voting out was (by itself) racist, but I think that no one has seriously said that (other of course than the possibility of a few isolated individuals who don't represent mainstream Remain or mainstream left-wing thinking having said it) and that you're making it up. I challenge you to demonstrate otherwise.

 

[WestCoast]

I can't speak for 'most brexit voters' but many voted on what they see happening around them that they attribute to the EU - lower wages, mass immigration etc. large cities are used to this - small towns are not and it is those small towns that saw dramatic changes. Large influxes of immigrants to small towns and rural areas doesn't happen in mainland Europe on the scale it has happened here. You can argue the rights and wrongs of their middle England attitude but they felt their problems were ignored and the only answer the remain camp gave was to call them racist - hardly likely to inspire them to change their mind.

It really depends on the economic characteristics of the town and area in question. In Northern England, a lot of smaller communities in Lancashire and Yorkshire see immigration as nothing new. Smaller post-industrial towns in East Lancashire, an area which voted strongly to leave, experienced immigration in the 60s and 70s from India and Pakistan to work in the mills. They make up significant minorities today.

However, there are certainly some small towns and rural areas where immigration was very uncommon before the 2000s. I think you can trace larger influxes back to the UK Government's decision to allow citizens of the new EU member states to work in the UK without a visa as soon as ascension was completed. The UK and Ireland had the opportunity to apply a brake on immigration then, as many other EU countries including Germany did. I'm not sure why this has not been brought up as part of the recent campaign, it seems to me a fairly central issue.

 

[DelayRepay]

I'm honestly stunned at the vitriol being directed towards young people on this thread. I am at a loss for words for how deeply condescending some of these comments are.

The whole thread has turned very unpleasant.

I think this reflects the country as a whole. This referendum has brought out the worse in people in a way that General Elections and other previous events never really have. It seems to now be acceptable to insult whole groups of society (the young, the old, people who live in London, people who don't live in London...). We have become less tolerant and more divided.

We haven't got our country back. We've just lost it. I cried last night. Not because of the decision to leave the EU, but because I look at this country and the insults, the racism, the hatred which has surfaced and I really fear the future.

 

[TheKnightWho]

Small towns overwhelmingly voted out because of being swamped by immigration in a way not seen anywhere else?

Hartlepool is 97.9% white, for example, and voted quite demonstrably Out. I can't imagine it's much lower in many Leave areas.

 

[WestCoast]

Not really, no. Especially given that he said that he was going to take this hardball approach from the beginning. What I find quite odd thought is that Merkel seems to be taking the opposite approach to Juncker, saying that we shouldn't rush into triggering article 50. Why she is doing this, I don't know. We could be seeing the setting up of a good cop, bad cop approach to Brexit from the EU, or could it be the Merkel sees a lot of advantages to making sure that Germany gets a good deal with the UK.

I suspect Germany will, at least outwardly, be more sympathetic towards the UK than France. I think there's disappointment on their side, but not necessarily a will to disrupt the relationship.
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Small towns overwhelmingly voted out because of being swamped by immigration in a way not seen anywhere else?

Hartlepool is 97.9% white, for example, and voted quite demonstrably Out. I can't imagine it's much lower in many Leave areas.

It is worth checking out growth in "other white" in some of these areas. Most of them show increases, ranging from hardly significant to quite significant. If you object to the EU on the ground of immigration, you're mostly referring to immigration from Central and Eastern Europe.

 

[ExRes]

Small towns overwhelmingly voted out because of being swamped by immigration in a way not seen anywhere else?

Hartlepool is 97.9% white, for example, and voted quite demonstrably Out. I can't imagine it's much lower in many Leave areas.

I've never set foot in Hartlepool so have no idea of its ethnic background other than looking at wikipedia, which you probably have to get your 97.9%

Let's not forget exactly what 'white' covers though, "White British, White Irish, White Gypsy or Irish Traveller" and "Any other White background", so it's distinctly possible, and I repeat possible, that the 97.9% figure could easily include .5%, 5% or 55% European immigrants proving, once again, that such a broad set of statistics cannot tell the whole story

 

[Domh245]

I've never set foot in Hartlepool so have no idea of its ethnic background other than looking at wikipedia, which you probably have to get your 97.9%

Let's not forget exactly what 'white' covers though, "White British, White Irish, White Gypsy or Irish Traveller" and "Any other White background", so it's distinctly possible, and I repeat possible, that the 97.9% figure could easily include .5%, 5% or 55% European immigrants proving, once again, that such a broad set of statistics cannot tell the whole story

Looking at the guardian's digest of the 2011 census, Hartlepool's population %ages are as follows:

White, British: 95.27
White, Irish: 0.33
White, Other: 1.21
Mixed: 0.77
Asian/Asian British: 1.54
Black/Black British: 0.33
Chinese: 0.22
Other: 0.22

Total Population: 90,900

 

[northwichcat]

In the Cheshire East area more votes were counted for Remain than Leave at Macclesfield town hall, but in Crewe the reverse applied. Yet Crewe is a town which has had Catholic services in Polish since the 1940s.

 

[bb21]

I'm honestly stunned at the vitriol being directed towards young people on this thread. I am at a loss for words for how deeply condescending some of these comments are.

I'm sure had the same been said about the older generation the same people would have been standing on rooftops shouting "ageism" at the top of their voices.

I have seen plenty of such examples with my own eyes. Quite unbelievable really.

 

[yorksrob]

Or the Swiss system where a referendum needs both a popular majority and a majority of the regions to pass. I was talking about this with my Swiss boss and he was aghast when I told him it was just 50%+1 to pass.

To be fair, 50% plus 1 is a better majority than many of our Governments are formed with.

I have every respect for the Swiss system of direct democracy. I think it has led to an electorate better equipped to make decisions.

 

[bb21]

Unsurprisingly, Leicester - one of the most multi-cultural cities in the country - voted Remain yesterday, and it is clearly because of that acceptance of difference.

Careful. Some will tell you next that Leicester only voted remain because of "votes by the foreigners" despite most them having been born in this country and having had a British passport all their lives, as I was told several times yesterday by some locals.

The undercurrent of casual racism in this country, as someone else pointed out upthread, has never gone away, and dare I say it, in my experience, it mostly comes from those who should have had enough life experience to know better, as they are the ones most directly benefited from the economic contributions from the post-war immigrants.

Immigrants are simply an easy target, especially in times of economic austerity, as shown time and again all over the world.

 

[Railops]

Heseltine another one of the many Remain cry babies has just said the referendum result should be ignored, very democratic.

 

[Harbornite]

The main issue with the result has been the number of uninformed brexit voters who weren't in full possession of the facts and some of these people now regret their choice. This is why some remainers are unhappy with the result. Quite frankly, the arguments for leaving didn't really add up and yet the economy has suffered in the short term because of the people who have voted without being in full possession of the facts. The remain campaign was poor because it failed to achieve said result and the leave campaign was based on lies and soundbites. Either way, the country will eventually recover and this could be a good wake-up call, but we will need to see what the future brings. I should clarify that I'm not suggesting all Brexit voters are as bad as each other, there are genuine reasons for wanting to vote out. Sadly it seems that more brexiters were motivated by anti-immigration ideals and some brexiters are undoubtedly racist. It does seem as though the leave argument boiled down to immigration and racism, with only secondary consideration given to the economy and other issues. I would have expected people to do their own research on the EU but it seems as though this task was too difficult for some of the less-educated members of society. This is why some remainers are sore losers.

 

[VauxhallandI]

Well that what comes with social media, anybody can say pretty much anything without any repercussions.

Are you saying they are made up reports, unsubstantiated social media reports?

 

[Antman]

Are you saying they are made up reports, unsubstantiated social media reports?

Good lord no..............if it's on social media then it must be true, mustn't it?:roll:

 

[Harbornite]

Good lord no..............if it's on social media then it must be true, mustn't it?:roll:

True, although the same goes for some stuff published in the tabloids.

 

[Antman]

Heseltine another one of the many Remain cry babies has just said the referendum result should be ignored, very democratic.

Strange he wasn't saying that before polling day
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True, although the same goes for some stuff published in the tabloids.

I wouldn't know, I don't read them.

 

[anme]

Hang on, wasn't Sunderland in the EU ?
That great protector of workers rights and fighter of low pay ?

Now I am confused, how can you think the EU is a force for good when it allows poor workers rights ?

Apologies - I should have added the word "relatively". Wages and workers' rights in the UK are rather below many western European countries. They are of course higher than in other parts of the EU. The UK has deliberately adopted a policy of having a more "flexible" workforce than other European countries, strangely while being part of the EU.

And yes, the EU did a lot of improve workers' rights in Britain. You will not doubt be familiar with the Social Chapter of the Maastricht treaty. What do you think Johnson/Gove and the permanent Tory government coming to England and Wales when Scotland leaves will do to workers' rights.

 

[Harbornite]

I wouldn't know, I don't read them.

Can't say I blame you.

 

[yorksrob]

To be fair, 50% plus 1 is a better majority than many of our Governments are formed with.

I have every respect for the Swiss system of direct democracy. I think it has led to an electorate better equipped to make decisions.

Apologies Zuriblue, I misread your post earlier.

I thought 50% plus one was the system the Swiss used for their Cantons and overall majority.

I have some sympathy for the argument that were we a properly federal system there would be a unit of Government at the right size which could be used as a break to ensure nationwide agreement.

Alas, we have nothing between the counties, which are probably too small to make unanimity possible, and the nations with wildly differing population levels. I'm not sure how this would be solved in such a system.

Anyhow, the beauty of the Irish system is that it seems to trigger a public vote for any major constitutional change. This has even given the Republic ammunition to negotiate better outcomes at various junctures. For such a ratifying role, I think a straightforward count might be preferable.

 

[anme]

Not really, no. Especially given that he said that he was going to take this hardball approach from the beginning. What I find quite odd thought is that Merkel seems to be taking the opposite approach to Juncker, saying that we shouldn't rush into triggering article 50. Why she is doing this, I don't know. We could be seeing the setting up of a good cop, bad cop approach to Brexit from the EU, or could it be the Merkel sees a lot of advantages to making sure that Germany gets a good deal with the UK.

Let's be honest, the EU needs the UK's decision to have some clear negative consequences. I think Merkel is being clever. Let's think what will happen if the UK delays invoking article 50. There will be an extended period of uncertainty, during which time investment will drop and the economy will likely enter recession. People will not like this, especially the leave supporters who will suffer most. Farage will tell us that it's a price worth paying and that good times are ahead, but as people lose their jobs and see living standards fall, they may start to disagree. The UK will suffer and views towards EU membership in the UK will likely become more favourable.

This is not the say that the UK will reverse its decision, but other countries will be watching carefully, and the UK's self inflicted suffering will be the best advert possible for continued EU membership.

The UK will delay invoking article 50. It will delay at least until the Tory party has a new leader, and there is a clear plan for what comes next. After that, the UK government will try to start unofficial negotiations with other EU leaders, but they may well refuse, telling the government to listen to their people and invoke article 50. But having invoked article 50, the UK has little negotiating power - the rest of the EU merely has to wait for the two year notice period then they can impose more or less what they like.

All this will happen during a constitutional crisis in the UK with serious problems in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and economic problems.

I wonder if the government will ever invoke article 50.

 

[Harbornite]

Let's hope that if there is a Brecession, it will not last as long as the last one. Nevertheless it will provide a good told-you-so opportunity for remain supporters.

 

[Howardh]

Let's be honest, the EU needs the UK's decision to have some clear negative consequences. I think Merkel is being clever. Let's think what will happen if the UK delays invoking article 50. There will be an extended period of uncertainty, during which time investment will drop and the economy will likely enter recession. People will not like this, especially the leave supporters who will suffer most. Farage will tell us that it's a price worth paying and that good times are ahead, but as people lose their jobs and see living standards fall, they may start to disagree. The UK will suffer and views towards EU membership in the UK will likely become more favourable.

This is not the say that the UK will reverse its decision, but other countries will be watching carefully, and the UK's self inflicted suffering will be the best advert possible for continued EU membership.

The UK will delay invoking article 50. It will delay at least until the Tory party has a new leader, and there is a clear plan for what comes next. After that, the UK government will try to start unofficial negotiations with other EU leaders, but they may well refuse, telling the government to listen to their people and invoke article 50. But having invoked article 50, the UK has little negotiating power - the rest of the EU merely has to wait for the two year notice period then they can impose more or less what they like.

All this will happen during a constitutional crisis in the UK with serious problems in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and economic problems.

I wonder if the government will ever invoke article 50.

Invoking A50 is like standing on the edge of a cliff ready to push the EU over, but you are tied to it with a rope and the EU has the scissors.

 

[anme]

Invoking A50 is like standing on the edge of a cliff ready to push the EU over, but you are tied to it with a rope and the EU has the scissors.

Not sure I agree. The EU is weakened in the short term by the UK leaving. But if it plays things well, and especially if the UK's exit is not seen as a success (e.g. if it breaks up and has economic problems after leaving), the EU will be strengthened. It's easy to want to leave the EU now, but if someone else does it first and they all lose their jobs, you might well change your mind.