First Group: General Discussion

[MK Tom]

I've already posted it in the Northampton thread but that operation closes for good on September 15th, confirmed today.

On the topic you're all discussing, in making my national operator map I've found consistently throughout First operations that they duplicate other operators a lot. Especially noticeable in Anglia, Berkshire and around Southampton/Portsmouth.

 

[Surreyman]

That's odd, because I was talking with some fellow members at the EATM last Thursday and apparently Yarmouth and Lowestoft are making money. Anglian Bus are ending their 146 route (Norwich-Lowestoft), which was in direct competition with First's X2 route, from September, so I think things are rosy for First down here in East Anglia.

An indicator of profitability has to be investment in new vehicles, First is under some short term pressure here, as it has a large fleet of elderly Darts/Solos Pre 2001 which have to be replaced by 31/12/2014.
New vehicles are going to the Glasgows, Manchesters, Yorkshires etc.
East Anglia is receiving second hand 'mid-life' vehicle replacements, this has to say something about profitability, as I said in an earlier post, they may be in the black but only generating a small %.

 

[overthewater]

How many buses does First group own now?

 

[KendalKing]

How many buses does First group own now?

Could be none, if they are all leased. like some companies.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Could be none, if they are all leased. like some companies.

The big boys tend to own their buses. Leasing is only really done for coaches or specific jobs (e.g. London, National Express).

Smaller companies tend to lease as they can't afford the capital spend. However, the cost over the longer term is higher. If you're a big firm, and you know you're going to be able to get a 15 year life out of the machine, then you spend the money and buy outright.
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An indicator of profitability has to be investment in new vehicles, First is under some short term pressure here, as it has a large fleet of elderly Darts/Solos Pre 2001 which have to be replaced by 31/12/2014.
New vehicles are going to the Glasgows, Manchesters, Yorkshires etc.
East Anglia is receiving second hand 'mid-life' vehicle replacements, this has to say something about profitability, as I said in an earlier post, they may be in the black but only generating a small %.

Yes and no. New vehicle investment is an indicator of profitability normally. However, First have got a big job to turn around the years of under-investment under the latter days of Moir's tenure. They can only replace so much fleet at the moment as a) access to capital still needs to be managed and b) you end up with an even more lopsided vehicle age profile.

Naturally, they are going to focus the capital and new vehicles in the places that provide the greatest benefit. However, a bit of judicious secondhand buying does help to improve the situation in the lower margin areas.

 

[overthewater]

Someone said it's approx 6000 buses, so if you buy 500per year it should be 12 year life for per bus.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Someone said it's approx 6000 buses, so if you buy 500per year it should be 12 year life for per bus.

Website says 7,400 so that would be about a 15 year life. However, assuming it is 6,000, then the fact that the average age is 8.6 years suggests that fleet replacement is behind schedule so an above average number of new vehicles need to come in to get back on track?

Using Stagecoach Midlands as an example, the single deck fleet's oldest machines are R and S reg (the last few B10Ms and some MANs, plus a rogue Dart) which are 1998 vintage! That's usually the benchmark. Deckers always last a bit longer, especially those with lots of schools work that don't see all day service so they may well clock up nearer to 18-20 years - saw two L reg Olympians heading for Northampton yesterday though I assume they're for disposal after schools have broken up as they're not local. The older deckers are balanced out by minibuses that will probably be on a 12 year life or so.

 

[Surreyman]

Website says 7,400 so that would be about a 15 year life. However, assuming it is 6,000, then the fact that the average age is 8.6 years suggests that fleet replacement is behind schedule so an above average number of new vehicles need to come in to get back on track?

Using Stagecoach Midlands as an example, the single deck fleet's oldest machines are R and S reg (the last few B10Ms and some MANs, plus a rogue Dart) which are 1998 vintage! That's usually the benchmark. Deckers always last a bit longer, especially those with lots of schools work that don't see all day service so they may well clock up nearer to 18-20 years - saw two L reg Olympians heading for Northampton yesterday though I assume they're for disposal after schools have broken up as they're not local. The older deckers are balanced out by minibuses that will probably be on a 12 year life or so.

The real pressure is the 31/12/2014 deadline for buses under 7500kg, First may have ordered a large quantity of Streetlites + some E200s but they will need to order a similarly large quantity for delivery in 2014 to clear out all pre 2001 Darts etc.
I suppose that a number of early 1999/2000 Solos could be upgraded to DDA?
Does anyone know if the Volvo B6BLE is under 7500kg?
Agree it is prudent to buy some secondhand vehicles but (Ex London D/deck excepted), DDA compliant second hand single decks are rather in demand at the moment!
Of course First could always ease the problem by selling off more of their operations!

 

[overthewater]

So the 2014 could be where a lot of the share rights are spent? A lot of new deckers are needed swell. Maybe we will see 900-1000 new buses. That would help out a lot, then a return to 400-500per year.

 

[Deerfold]

So the 2014 could be where a lot of the share rights are spent?

What does this mean?

Not that I'm expecting an answer as I never get one.

 

[overthewater]

What does this mean?

Not that I'm expecting an answer as I never get one.

As we know First have just sorted out the share rights to raise much needed capital, for debt and improvements. Thus I would suspect the vehicle order for 2014 is where most of the money will be spent.

 

[winston270twm]

So the 2014 could be where a lot of the share rights are spent? A lot of new deckers are needed swell. Maybe we will see 900-1000 new buses. That would help out a lot, then a return to 400-500per year.

The step entry deckers could remain with First Group in service until 1.1.17 as a very last resort until all deckers then need to be DDA compliant. Not that it would be good for First Groups already tarnished image, but it could give them some breathing space to sort of the midi & single decker fleets initially in the two years prior.

 

[Deerfold]

As we know First have just sorted out the share rights to raise much needed capital, for debt and improvements. Thus I would suspect the vehicle order for 2014 is where most of the money will be spent.

Thanks.

Unfortunately I can see their vehicle replacement rates eating that money up very quickly.

 

[winston270twm]

Thanks.

Unfortunately I can see their vehicle replacement rates eating that money up very quickly.

Deerfold,

Don't forget that First Group will set money aside annually for capital expenditure in addition to the funds raised through the recent rights issue.

I can't personally see First Group buying a 1000 new buses per year in the UK; otherwise they will be in the same predicament in years to come when large quantities of buses will all need replacing all at the same time. I expect that they may replace 10% of the fleet per annum over the next couple of years which would be around 600 buses. Additionally I can see them continuing to purchase suitable second-hand vehicles; they could also buy any First Group spec ex London Buses off Metroline or Tower Transit as they become available

 

[overthewater]

Only reason I believe there would go for 900 - 1000 buses this time around was because of the addition capital which has been raised, plus the need to replace a number of end of life buses. As you say Double deckers can stay live a bit longer, but I think we may just see 500 deal plus maybe one off addition stock like deckers or Solos?

I see what you mean having this trouble 10 years down the line.

 

[Surreyman]

Deerfold,

Don't forget that First Group will set money aside annually for capital expenditure in addition to the funds raised through the recent rights issue.

I can't personally see First Group buying a 1000 new buses per year in the UK; otherwise they will be in the same predicament in years to come when large quantities of buses will all need replacing all at the same time. I expect that they may replace 10% of the fleet per annum over the next couple of years which would be around 600 buses. Additionally I can see them continuing to purchase suitable second-hand vehicles; they could also buy any First Group spec ex London Buses off Metroline or Tower Transit as they become available

"First Group Spec' - they may have blue handrails and First seat Moquette but strictly speaking they are to TFL spec, which begs a question, were the London Vehicles owned or leased or a mixture of both?
First could probably have a number of late model pre DDA vehicles upgraded,
I.e Tridents/B7Ls D/decks and B10BLE/Scania - Wright S/decks built in 2000 could be modified and certified to DDA standards.
A number of operators are doing this.
Euro 6 is going to add cost & complication as well, 'Route One' magazine quotes Peter Shipp from EYMS as saying that they will hold off buying new Euro 6 vehicles for a year ot two and probably buy ex London stock.

 

[winston270twm]

"First Group Spec' - they may have blue handrails and First seat Moquette but strictly speaking they are to TFL spec, which begs a question, were the London Vehicles owned or leased or a mixture of both?
First could probably have a number of late model pre DDA vehicles upgraded,
I.e Tridents/B7Ls D/decks and B10BLE/Scania - Wright S/decks built in 2000 could be modified and certified to DDA standards.
A number of operators are doing this.
Euro 6 is going to add cost & complication as well, 'Route One' magazine quotes Peter Shipp from EYMS as saying that they will hold off buying new Euro 6 vehicles for a year ot two and probably buy ex London stock.

When I say First spec, much of the interior would be replaced at refurb, I was more referring to the batches of surplus ex First London buses that could be sourced from Metroline & Tower Transit would be from the same batches/have the same driveline setup as those already cascaded to the provinces from First London.

I personally think a lot of operators will place additional orders for Euro 5 vehicles up to the end of this year for delivery in 2014. At the most I expect the bigger groups may take delivery of small quantities of Euro 6 vehicles to use for evaluation purposes / whilst any teething troubles are ironed out by manufacturers prior to deciding future buying policy / placing nay big fleet orders

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

.

I personally think a lot of operators will place additional orders for Euro 5 vehicles up to the end of this year for delivery in 2014. At the most I expect the bigger groups may take delivery of small quantities of Euro 6 vehicles to use for evaluation purposes / whilst any teething troubles are ironed out by manufacturers prior to deciding future buying policy / placing nay big fleet orders

Sorry but the Euro 6 rule is that "all new trucks and buses registered from 1 January 2014 must be equipped with a Euro 6 certified engine". Ordering now for delivery next year can't be used to dodge it

 

[34D]

The real pressure is the 31/12/2014 deadline for buses under 7500kg, First may have ordered a large quantity of Streetlites + some E200s but they will need to order a similarly large quantity for delivery in 2014 to clear out all pre 2001 Darts etc.
I suppose that a number of early 1999/2000 Solos could be upgraded to DDA?
Does anyone know if the Volvo B6BLE is under 7500kg?
Agree it is prudent to buy some secondhand vehicles but (Ex London D/deck excepted), DDA compliant second hand single decks are rather in demand at the moment!
Of course First could always ease the problem by selling off more of their operations!

No. 7,500 kg refers to the Design Weight, which is the gross weight.

Even the tiny solo has a gross weight of around 8.5 tonnes. Darts and B6 likewise.

Given that the definition for vehicles under 7,500 kg requires at least 22 seats, it is hard to see what vehicles are actually caught by it.

Many vehicles from the mid 1990s simply need to be taken for the PSVAR inspection and do not require any items that isn't OE.

 

[Volvodart]

The decision on whether or not the OFT will clear the takeover of Redditch and Kidderminster depots by Rotala Diamond Bus should be known by Friday.

Now 9 August.

 

[robertclark125]

Wonder what the delay is?

 

[Surreyman]

No. 7,500 kg refers to the Design Weight, which is the gross weight.

Even the tiny solo has a gross weight of around 8.5 tonnes. Darts and B6 likewise.

Given that the definition for vehicles under 7,500 kg requires at least 22 seats, it is hard to see what vehicles are actually caught by it.

Many vehicles from the mid 1990s simply need to be taken for the PSVAR inspection and do not require any items that isn't OE.

34D, can I ask for more detail/clarification?
From your reply it sounds as if you work in the industry.
I may be getting my wires crossed?
If I understand your reply correctly, you are saying that in effect, only smaller minibuses are affected by the 31/12/2014 deadline, which I believe exempts vehicles with 16 seats or less.
Does this mean therefore that all single deckers, pre 2001 can continue in service until 31/12/2015?
Ref your comment PSVAR inspection, I am (rightly or wrongly) under the impression that pre 2001 vehicles need to be physically modified (I would guess some year 2000 production vehicles were probably constructed to near DDA standards).
Recent articles/interviews with Ensign bus have referred to upgrading.
Would appreciate a very detailed answer, to establish just what the position is, (not just for my benefit!)

 

[winston270twm]

Sorry but the Euro 6 rule is that "all new trucks and buses registered from 1 January 2014 must be equipped with a Euro 6 certified engine". Ordering now for delivery next year can't be used to dodge it

I was under the impression that all new buses ordered after the 1st Jan 2014 had to be Euro 6, not necessarily delivered?

NXWM's Operations Director on another forum, has also suggested that NX Groups 2014 orders for UK bus will more than likely be Euro 5.

Given that manufacturers are yet to result details / images of the new product being offered, there would be a big hole in manufacturers order books whilst bus operators evaluate demonstrators, especially given the increasing complexity & extra cost that Euro 6 will be adding to new vehicle prices
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Wonder what the delay is?

They must be looking in to the implications of the deal further,

Incidentally Rotala have acquired in the last week 4 x second-hand E300's (2 ex Hansons, 2 ex Premiere) which logic would say would be destined to join the other three currently at Redditch.

Additionally a couple of W-reg ALX200 Darts have been pulled out of withdrawn Diamond/Wessex stock, been repainted in the new blue livery & entered service in Redditch.

The recent fleet movements, seen to me to suggest Rotala are hopeful of a positive outcome?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I was under the impression that all new buses ordered after the 1st Jan 2014 had to be Euro 6, not necessarily delivered?

NXWM's Operations Director on another forum, has also suggested that NX Groups 2014 orders for UK bus will more than likely be Euro 5.

Given that manufacturers are yet to result details / images of the new product being offered, there would be a big hole in manufacturers order books whilst bus operators evaluate demonstrators, especially given the increasing complexity & extra cost that Euro 6 will be adding to new vehicle prices

GrandWazoo,

Just checked on Cummins website and you appear to be correct, I will fire that one at at NXWM OD's and see how he responds

 

[SuffolkRaider]

That's odd, because I was talking with some fellow members at the EATM last Thursday and apparently Yarmouth and Lowestoft are making money. Anglian Bus are ending their 146 route (Norwich-Lowestoft), which was in direct competition with First's X2 route, from September, so I think things are rosy for First down here in East Anglia.

But if you read the N&P just published theres a new route 60/60A/60B/60C that is for Lowestoft-Norwich which would replace 146/A/B/C which included the schools service so it would seem they are still in contention. All First have done is to up the frequency and promise newer buses i.e the Gemini B9's off the X1 for the X2 when the new ALX400's arrive October time I wouldn't say things are rosy if the moaning I have heard about the midget Caetano's in Yarmouth is anything to go by but you are right they are prob making enough to stave off a takeover at this point. Anglian/Konect look as though they will mount a concerted effort in the coming year by combining some services and registering new as the flexibility of 2 fleets is used. I think Ipswich is too far for them but and this is only my opinion Norfolk Green would fit the model a treat if you look at it geographically and leave Ipswich to a IB led take over assisted by Hedingham maybe maybe not. Anyway its all good fun speculating .

 

[overthewater]

http://eastnorfolkbus.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/chelmsford-city-in-great-yarmouth.html The area does seem to be getting a increase numbers of Second hand buses, it could be good house keeping.

 

[winston270twm]

http://eastnorfolkbus.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/chelmsford-city-in-great-yarmouth.html The area does seem to be getting a increase numbers of Second hand buses, it could be good house keeping.

Other than the ex Jersey Darts @ Great Yarmouth (2 of which already need new engines), other than the one Volvo B9TL/Gemini 37562 which is for Great Yarmouth. All the other second-hand vehicles acquired via Ensign and sighted at Great Yarmouth depot are actually for First Essex or Chelmsford

 

[SuffolkRaider]

Yes Winston very true but at least the majority of the old P/R/S reg stuff has gone and the livery looks fresher(not liked as much as they hoped but...) and looks like the engines canny take it Captain lol just how hard a life have they had on Jersey to come to little old Yarmouth and blow a gasket. I think First are sitting on their laurels a bit just not moving as forward as the others I may be wrong but no new routes have been set up in my memory lately whereas Ang/Kon seem to be going for it as we say here.

 

[overthewater]

I can say this If the area has gotten rid of all the P/R/S stuff then First has more hopes than certain other areas.

 

[34D]

34D, can I ask for more detail/clarification?
From your reply it sounds as if you work in the industry.
I may be getting my wires crossed?
If I understand your reply correctly, you are saying that in effect, only smaller minibuses are affected by the 31/12/2014 deadline, which I believe exempts vehicles with 16 seats or less.

Take a look at this blog written by a contact of mine which summarises the requirements and links to the legislation.

The first deadline (Dec 2014) applies to vehicles with a gross weight of 7.5 tonnes or less. Buses only, not coaches. Vehicles with less than 22 passenger seats are exempted from the whole thing.

In practice the only vehicles I can think of that this applies to are 29 seat Merc 811 vario type buses (first still have some I believe). Can anyone else think of anything else?

Does this mean therefore that all single deckers, pre 2001 can continue in service until 31/12/2015?
Ref your comment PSVAR inspection, I am (rightly or wrongly) under the impression that pre 2001 vehicles need to be physically modified (I would guess some year 2000 production vehicles were probably constructed to near DDA standards).
Recent articles/interviews with Ensign bus have referred to upgrading.
Would appreciate a very detailed answer, to establish just what the position is, (not just for my benefit!)

It just depends what was ordered. Some Operators were better than others with their specs. I am aware of an S reg solo that an Operator has audited for compliance, and they identified that the only thing needed is working side destination/number and rear number blinds. All of the tricky things (wheelchair area to certain parameters, kneeling suspension, etc) are already provided and (in the case of the specific vehicle) meet the requirements..

A lot of the work Ensign do will be around taking a London bus with wheelchair ramp on the middle door and removing the middle door and fitting a ramp to the front one.

 

[Surreyman]

Take a look at this blog written by a contact of mine which summarises the requirements and links to the legislation.

The first deadline (Dec 2014) applies to vehicles with a gross weight of 7.5 tonnes or less. Buses only, not coaches. Vehicles with less than 22 passenger seats are exempted from the whole thing.

In practice the only vehicles I can think of that this applies to are 29 seat Merc 811 vario type buses (first still have some I believe). Can anyone else think of anything else?



It just depends what was ordered. Some Operators were better than others with their specs. I am aware of an S reg solo that an Operator has audited for compliance, and they identified that the only thing needed is working side destination/number and rear number blinds. All of the tricky things (wheelchair area to certain parameters, kneeling suspension, etc) are already provided and (in the case of the specific vehicle) meet the requirements..

A lot of the work Ensign do will be around taking a London bus with wheelchair ramp on the middle door and removing the middle door and fitting a ramp to the front one.

Many thanks 34D, very interesting blog.
The proviso for operators to allow vehicles more than 20 years old to be used for up to 20 days a year, is going to be controversial, I can see that 'preserved' vehicles could be used on xmas specials/summer festival services etc.
If I have understood this correctly then the following scenario could take place - small operator suffers vehicle breakdown, only spare available to run public service is a 20 year old Olympian normally used on dedicated school run only(not a public service), wheelchair user cannot board, complaint followed by legal proceedings, operator uses defence of the '20 year old, 20 day rule!'