• Our booking engine at tickets.railforums.co.uk (powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

First will not take over West Coast from December

Status
Not open for further replies.

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
Sorry - I should have made it clearer - it wasn't meant to be that type of argument, I meant the future of West Coast itself. Have amended thread accordingly.
The terms of the enquiries are quite limited; there is no option to look at renationalising the railway. Therefore your post is perforce starting that type of argument.

As to what will happen:

1. The first enquiry will say that there were several errors by DfT; it was right to re-start the process; senior people and ministers will be exonerated; scapegoats will be confirmed.

2. The second enquiry will say the franchise process is essentially sound but that the process needs tweaking and safeguards need to be put into place to ensure proper procedures are carried out.

Remember, as the wise Sir Humphrey once said, "...never set up an enquiry unless you know in advance what its findings will be".
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

northwichcat

Veteran Member
Joined
23 Jan 2009
Messages
32,692
Location
Northwich
This is true, but the killer year, 2009, saw a huge drop in demand, which has simply not been recovered. Now, the factors you state have replaced economic growth, so that currently things don't look so bad for trains, but no commuter or long-distance TOC is going to recover from 2009.

If I use a few sets of figures from my local line which sees only Northern Rail local trains the annual passenger figures have been as below. I've highlighted any drops over the previous year in blue. I fail to see a killer drop in demand, yes there's a slight drop for 08/09 at one station and for 09/10 at two others but the levels for 08/09 and 09/10 are higher than 06/07 at every station, so easily recoverable and no need for an increased subsidy considering the franchise was let on the 2004 passenger numbers with 'no growth.'

Altrincham:
2006/07 0.223 million
2007/08 0.283 million
2008/09 0.261 million
2009/10 0.265 million
2010/11 0.477 million

Hale:
2006/07 79,408
2007/08 108,638
2008/09 130,638
2009/10 144,776
2010/11 144,754 - very small drop over previous year

Knutsford:
2006/07 0.250 million
2007/08 0.291 million
2008/09 0.311 million
2009/10 0.304 million
2010/11 0.362 million

Northwich:
2006/07 140,882
2007/08 154,907
2008/09 158,144
2009/10 153,606
2010/11 172,704

Greenbank:
2006/07 80,667
2007/08 90,598
2008/09 93,312
2009/10 94,314
2010/11 108,442

Delamere:
2006/07 20,996
2007/08 28,220
2008/09 29,870
2009/10 34,500
 
Last edited by a moderator:

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
Perhaps I should have said London Commuter TOC. I don't know what's been happening oop north. To be fair, even in London some TOCs were more heavily affected than others - North of the river worse than South, for instance. Interesting figures those.
 

Xenophon PCDGS

Veteran Member
Joined
17 Apr 2011
Messages
32,659
Location
A semi-rural part of north-west England
Perhaps I should have said London Commuter TOC. I don't know what's been happening oop north. To be fair, even in London some TOCs were more heavily affected than others - North of the river worse than South, for instance. Interesting figures those.

I can give comparitive figures for two stations, outside the TfGM area. on the Manchester to Macclesfield line:-

Prestbury

2006/07...39,182
2007/08...42,429
2008/09...41,252
2009/10...42,328
2010/11...42,060

Poynton

2006/07...149,521
2007/08...167,902
2008/09...179,840
2009/10...177,578
2010/11...182,094
 

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
Looking at all the numbers, apart from Hale, where clearly something special is happening, the increase from 2006/07 to 2007/08 is probably what the last lot of franchises were expecting to happen in 08/09, 09/10. Yes things improve again in 10/11, but not enough to make up for lost ground.
 

ANorthernGuard

Established Member
Joined
8 Oct 2010
Messages
2,662
Over the last 10 years I have seen considerable growth on both lines, BUT tbh on the CLC it has always felt like it was "rammed" so to speak at rush hours, one thing I have noticed is at off peak times business has picked up markedly, with the Duos and Cheap evening returns rail is an attractive option for many, especially with the cost of parking in the big cities.
 

Metroland

Established Member
Joined
20 Jul 2005
Messages
3,212
Location
Midlands
The Government has already ruled out any sort of public control in the wake of the West coast scandal, according to this:

"Despite ordering two ‘independent’ inquiries into last week’s West Coast Main Line fiasco, the Government has no intention of changing the franchising system, which has led to taxpayers having to pay more than £100million for the Department for Transport’s error.

According to senior sources at the Department, the Government’s commitment to the rail franchising system is ‘undiminished’."

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...iasco-halt-franchising-despite-100m-cost.html

But then there seems to be an automatic belief in Whitehall and with politicians the private sector is always better, despite huge amounts of public money being poured in - which in my view cancels out any sort of tight cost control or incentive to invest private money, instead just lobbying for more public cash.

If the private sector is so good, why doesn't the government trust them? Why do we need civil servants writing huge amounts of red tape to stop the naughty profiteers following contracts that perversely affect the passenger and the tax payer? This in turn adding so much cost it cancels out narrow efficiencies that could possibly arise.

I've nothing especially for or against the public or private sector, but I'm firmly of the belief that the private sector should either stand on its own two feet or simply be contractors, where the government gets private companies to put in the best value bid, such as a concession system. The private sector works best when it has has genuine freedom, risk and room to innovate.

Apart from Freight, Intercity and equipment supply, the railway cannot stand on its own two feet and has not reduced costs or especially invested, so what's the point? British rail was more efficient because the government put money on the table and said get on with it, and that was the end of that. Okay, it was a bit cheap and nasty in some areas, had problems getting staff, but in the end you get what you pay for. Freight is a great success story because the companies involved know that the buck stops with them, and they have made efficiencies.

McNulty concluded that franchising hadn't reduced costs because there were perverse incentives. It's not just the companies themselves, but the workforce knows it can name its price because there are no huge pools of labour ready to replace it.

The article in today's Telegraph by Andrew Gilligan sums it up quite well

"It was a sobering symptom of public credulousness, and the power of Branson’s superb personal PR. The West Coast line has indeed been “transformed” – but this “remarkable achievement” is almost entirely the work of the taxpayer, not Sir Richard. It was the Government, not Virgin, that paid £8.7 billion to upgrade the tracks and signalling, making possible today’s faster, more reliable and more frequent trains. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...591329/No-way-to-run-a-grown-up-railway.html#
 
Last edited:

HH

Established Member
Joined
31 Jul 2009
Messages
4,505
Location
Essex
Easy-read article from yesterdays 'Guardian' - apologies in advance to anyone who might not like this newspaper!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/oct/06/west-coast-mainline?INTCMP=SRCH
Well it's not overtly political. I liked this bit:
In fact, the question of how the train-operating companies are franchised is marginal compared to the infrastructure operation of Network Rail, an organisation ambiguously defined, but whose vast levels of borrowing are backed by the government. It is, in effect, nationalised, and the government does make most of the decisions to do with the railways.
Quoted For Truth. Just for all those who keep braying that it's a Private Company.
 

Skimble19

Established Member
Joined
12 Dec 2009
Messages
1,491
Location
London
It should be DOR, based on Virgin already having used up their extension.. However, at this stage (and until DfT sneak it out in the middle of the night thinking everyone's in bed) it's all speculation.
 

SprinterMan

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2010
Messages
2,341
Location
Hertford
It should be DOR, based on Virgin already having used up their extension.. However, at this stage (and until DfT sneak it out in the middle of the night thinking everyone's in bed) it's all speculation.

I heard that DOR might contract it out to Virgin? Is that even possible?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19817798
West Coast Main Line franchise process a 'fiasco' says Branson
Virgin, which has run the franchise since 1997, will continue to operate the line while the situation is resolved, but when asked if the government could step in, Sir Richard said: "If they can't run a process, then it'll be even more difficult to run a railway."

Adam :D
 

Simon11

Established Member
Joined
7 Nov 2010
Messages
1,335
I can personally only seeing dor operating the franchise.

I can't see the goverment wanting to look like they have given in and let virgin continue. I can see virgin doing lots more sneaky marketing and trying to look good in front of gullible passengers. Surely also first group would rather dor run the line.

Think of it this way, pretend that your a child and your have an arguement with your bro or sis over your favourite toy. Your parents are debating the issue and decide in the meanwhile that your bro/sis can play with the toy until they have dealt with the issue- you wouldn't be too pleased with that!
 

WillPS

Established Member
Joined
18 Nov 2008
Messages
2,421
Location
Nottingham
DOR have done a great job with East Coast. Offering anything other than a very short term extension (e.g. if it would be impossible for DOR to take over on December 9th) to Virgin would be a mistake.

Last I knew, the government were thought to be preparing for a DOR takeover but this was prior to the announcement this week.
 

SprinterMan

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2010
Messages
2,341
Location
Hertford
I can personally only seeing dor operating the franchise.

I can't see the goverment wanting to look like they have given in and let virgin continue. I can see virgin doing lots more sneaky marketing and trying to look good in front of gullible passengers. Surely also first group would rather dor run the line.

I have a feeling Branson will manage to maintain control somehow, but if DOR take over I really hope they use the same branding as they used with east coast, just replace the word east with west :P

4975363766_57c7aa5e0a_z.jpg


I am travelling Bangor to London on 23rd December so would like to know who I will be travelling with :P

Adam :D
 

jon0844

Veteran Member
Joined
1 Feb 2009
Messages
28,180
Location
UK
I've seen the new livery already...

WC-DOR.jpg

(I was considering Tweeting that modified image, but I don't know the original author of the above image)
 

91101

Member
Joined
25 Oct 2007
Messages
439
Can exclusively reveal the new logo...

Welcome...to your West Coast:

dorwestcoastbannercopy.jpg
 

SprinterMan

Established Member
Joined
20 Sep 2010
Messages
2,341
Location
Hertford
The end begins:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-franchise-options-pose-threat-to-Virgin.html
West Coast rail franchise options pose threat to Virgin
Eversheds informed Virgin Rail’s lawyers, Herbert Smith, over the weekend of the scenarios now being examined by Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, after he last week pulled the contract awarded to FirstGroup after finding “unacceptable mistakes” in his department’s handling of the bid.
The immediate focus is now on what happens from December 9 when Virgin’s current contract on the London-to-Scotland service expires.
Eversheds explained that two of the options involved the transfer of the contract to state-owned Directly Operated Railways. The first would see DOR take over on December 9. The second envisaged agreeing a management contract with Virgin Rail up until Mr McLoughlin is ready to hold a new bid – at which point the franchise would transfer to DOR.

http://www.lep.co.uk/news/business/virgin-boss-let-us-keep-west-coast-1-5000722
Virgin boss: Let us keep West Coast
The boss of Virgin Trains has warned the Government cannot take on running the West Coast Main Line through Lancashire.

Tony Collins, chief executive of the rail group, said he believed the Government’s Directly Operated Railways (DOR) division would not be ready to take on the route on December 9, when Virgin’s franchise expires.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/oct/07/firstgroup-legal-action-west-coast-rail?newsfeed=true
FirstGroup may take legal action over West Coast rail franchise
FirstGroup is considering a legal challenge against the Department for Transport if Virgin Trains secures an extension of the West Coast rail franchise, amid warnings the government is running out of time to make a decision on the route's future.

Virgin Trains is in the frame to continue running the London to Glasgow route beyond 9 December, when the contract expires, following the DfT's shock decision to abandon a handover to FirstGroup. As the process threatens to descend into a legal quagmire, the alternative is a transfer to the government's in-house rail unit, Directly Operated Railways (DOR), which operates the East Coast franchise and is preparing for a West Coast takeover.

Someone is going to court....

Adam :D
 

Whistler40145

Established Member
Joined
30 Apr 2010
Messages
5,976
Location
Lancashire
Is there a legal issue of DOR operating both West Coast & East Coast franchises as a franchisee cannot do so?
 

MidnightFlyer

Veteran Member
Joined
16 May 2010
Messages
12,857
Is there a legal issue of DOR operating both West Coast & East Coast franchises as a franchisee cannot do so?

Is that written down anywhere or just another baseless 'you can't run x and y franchises simultaneously' claim? I'm sure Virgin bid twice for the EC during their tenure on the WCML.
 

Whistler40145

Established Member
Joined
30 Apr 2010
Messages
5,976
Location
Lancashire
I was always under the impression that a TOC couldn't run East & West Coast franchises simultaneously, that's why I was asking for clarification that DOR had different rules to operate both.
 

Whistler40145

Established Member
Joined
30 Apr 2010
Messages
5,976
Location
Lancashire
Common sense doesn't exist in Whitehall, Sir Humphrey!

I just thought how much time & money would be wasted having to temporarily repaint all the Virgin rolling stock.
 

Stats

Member
Joined
27 Sep 2009
Messages
943
I was always under the impression that a TOC couldn't run East & West Coast franchises simultaneously, that's why I was asking for clarification that DOR had different rules to operate both.
There is no such rule that East & West Coast cannot be operated by the same group. In fact the OFT ruled there were no competition concerns with Virgin operating both franchises when they bid for ICEC in 2004.
 

Eagle

Established Member
Joined
20 Feb 2011
Messages
7,106
Location
Leamingrad / Blanfrancisco
Wouldn't it be more financially viable to remove the Virgin logos & retain the main red vynls?

Depends how long DOR are in for. Personally I can't see it being any longer than the time it takes to "fix" the franchising process and rerun it, which can't be much more than a year. In that case I'm sure it wouldn't do the DfT any favours to be seen spending money for a reliverying that won't last long (even if the actual cost is comparatively tiny).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top