Keolis Amey Wales - Future Rolling Stock

[sprinterguy]

": Incoming Wales & Borders franchisee KeolisAmey has selected CAF as preferred bidder for a contract to supply regional diesel multiple-units for the franchise’s rural and suburban services. "

Does this not make you think these will only be used on shorter journey's ? I doubt the pictured interior will be working the longer journey's they don't even have tables!!

The 44 x 2-car and 26 x 3-car (plus an additional 7 x 2-car units) CAF units make up the entirety of the planned regional fleet (Barring 3 x Mark 4 rakes): The Wales & Borders regional services (Welsh Marches, North Wales coast and the Cambrian line) will be their primary source of work.

 

[Gareth Marston]

350s and 450s have first class in the middle and it seems to work ok, but yes it would seem a lot less confusing to put it at one end. As for the most popular carriage, that's the one closest to the entrance of the busiest station. For Manchester - South Wales, that means the rear carriage both southbound (because of Manchester's bay Platforms) and northbound (because of the positioning of the stairs at both Cardiff and Newport).

If we've surmised correctly then at Manchester the unit next to the buffers will be the West Wales standard only portion (not that that makes a blind bit of difference as i doubt there will be much trade for Milford Haven etc) so the unit with the First Class will be further away. At Cardiff depending on formation length 4/5/6 as long as the First Class is at the Swansea buffers end it should not get picked on first.

I use to wait by the Car Stop signs at Cardiff Platform 2 by the toilets and head straight for a table even if it had reserved tags - never failed as most seat reservations are never taken by those that book them - left the crowds down by the top of the stairs.

 

[krus_aragon]

If we've surmised correctly then at Manchester the unit next to the buffers will be the West Wales standard only portion (not that that makes a blind bit of difference as i doubt there will be much trade for Milford Haven etc) so the unit with the First Class will be further away. At Cardiff depending on formation length 4/5/6 as long as the First Class is at the Swansea buffers end it should not get picked on first.

That reads sensible, considering coupling practicalities at Swansea. Let me summon up my ASCII-fu and throw some text-based diagrams together:

______________________________________
|:================[toWestWales][MAN-SWA]====
Train from Manchester, standard-class unit was furthest from buffers at MAN
______________________________________
|:=[toWestWales][MAN-SWA]===================
Units arrive at Swansea
______________________________________
|:=[toWestWales]=[MAN-SWA]==================
Units detach
______________________________________
|:=[toWestWales]=[MAN-SWA]===[toWestWales]==
Unit from Milford Haven approaches...
______________________________________
|:=[toWestWales]=[MAN-SWA][toWestWales]=====
...and attaches to MAN-SWA unit
______________________________________
|:=[toWestWales]====[MAN-SWA][toWestWales]==
Coupled units head toward Manchester
______________________________________
|:===[toWestWales]==========================
Remaining unit heads toward Carmarthen/Milford

Done this way, the unit continuing toward West Wales can't proceed until the unit coming from West Wales has arrived, coupled, and departed.

If we arrange them the other way around:

______________________________________
|:========[MAN-SWA][toWestWales]============
Train from Manchester, standard-class unit was nearest to buffers at MAN
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA][toWestWales]===================
Units arrive at Swansea
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA]=[toWestWales]==================
Units detach
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA]=========[toWestWales]==========
West Wales unit heads toward Carmarthen/Milford
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA]================================
Layover time at Swansea for First class unit
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA]=======[fromWestWales]==========
West Wales unit approaches from Milford
______________________________________
|:=[MAN-SWA][fromWestWales]=================
Units attach
______________________________________
|:=====[MAN-SWA][fromWestWales]=============
Train departs for Manchester

 

[craigybagel]

Hopefully the plan really is for 3+2 with the first class units, and not just 3 cars by themselves. I know I'm the first person to suggest that the issue of overcrowding on ATW is often overplayed, and that there are few services that require more then the current 3 cars, but adding first class reduces standard capacity - and that's certainly not something anybody wants!

That said, there are several stations between Manchester and West Wales where 4 cars is the current limit (and at least one with only 3) due to platform length. I've not seen any mention of money for platform lengthening so hopefully some form of SDO is to be included with the new fleet?

 

[Gareth Marston]

Hopefully the plan really is for 3+2 with the first class units, and not just 3 cars by themselves. I know I'm the first person to suggest that the issue of overcrowding on ATW is often overplayed, and that there are few services that require more then the current 3 cars, but adding first class reduces standard capacity - and that's certainly not something anybody wants!

That said, there are several stations between Manchester and West Wales where 4 cars is the current limit (and at least one with only 3) due to platform length. I've not seen any mention of money for platform lengthening so hopefully some form of SDO is to be included with the new fleet?

Ludlow would probably be a good source of 1st class passengers!

 

[krus_aragon]

Just brainstorming: must the SWA-MAN first class units be 3-car? Assuming they're going to be coupled up to another unit for the entirety of their journey, they could be 2-car instead, and coupled to a 2-car or 3-car standard class unit in order to give more flexibility in capacity. Although this would leave little capacity of the service had to be run with just the first class unit, it would allow 4,5 or 6-car formations SWA-MAN (2+2,2+3,2+2+2) instead of just 5 or 6-car (3+2,3+3).

 

[Gareth Marston]

Just brainstorming: must the SWA-MAN first class units be 3-car? Assuming they're going to be coupled up to another unit for the entirety of their journey, they could be 2-car instead, and coupled to a 2-car or 3-car standard class unit in order to give more flexibility in capacity. Although this would leave little capacity of the service had to be run with just the first class unit, it would allow 4,5 or 6-car formations SWA-MAN (2+2,2+3,2+2+2) instead of just 5 or 6-car (3+2,3+3).

How they will do the First Class is currently one of the unanswered questions.

We know that they have committed to First Class to Swansea by 2024.
The initial Civity delivery's are 44 x 2 car & 26 x 3 car by 2022. Locked out first class till 2024 makes no sense.
The later batch is 7 x 2 car for delivery in 2024. You need at least 11 units with First Class to cover an hourly diagram from Swansea to Manchester.

I'm erring on the side that this commitment could be every two hours!

 

[krus_aragon]

You're overflowing with good insight on this thread, Gareth! Let's see if I can add some of my own...

If first class is only going to be provided two-hourly between Swansea and Manchester, then it must either be on the Milford terminators or the Carmarthen ones. After a run of just over four hours from Manchester to Swansea, the first class unit would arrive roughly twenty minutes before the next service towards Manchester. I don't think it would couple to that service for two reasons. Firstly, twenty minutes could easily be lost during disruption, leading to lack of provision for first class passengers or the need to detach/attach the first class unit earlier (e.g. Cardiff?). Secondly, going straight back up would result in a nine-hour round trip, which doesn't suit a two-hourly service.

So working on the assumption of an extended layover at Swansea for the first class units, a ten-hour round trip would require five allocated diagrams for a two-hourly service, which matches nicely with the theory that the final seven 2024 units are the first class ones.

The next question is which services will have the first class, the Carmarthen or Milford services? Disregarding rush hour flows, one would expect more patronage on the Milford services: most passengers for west of Carmarthen will aim for these, whereas those who stay east of Carmarthen will be equally spread between both. As the minimum length of a train with detachable first class accommodation will be 4-car (2+2), I expect that the first class accommodation would be on the Milford services between Swansea and Manchester (but only 2 cars going to Milford), with the Carmarthen terminators being diagrammed for 2 or 3-car according to demand.

(Another thought: a fully homogenous long-distance fleet means that a spare unit could easily be attached to an existing service for a portion of the journey (e.g. Swansea - Cardiff) at peak hours, with no need for extra paths/drivers. I think there's something similar done at Mach now with a 158 doing one morning diagram before going on maintenance for the rest of the day.)

 

[Gareth Marston]

Given the available evidence it's hard to see how it's not going to be every two hours with First Class.

Next big question is the 3 car units. Will they be generic all routes targeted at busier trains or will they be on certain services only?

 

[gareth950]

From all the information available, it seems there are no plans to take on any of Northern's 144s or GWR 143s as they are gradually released from this autumn. IMO this is a missed opportunity for KeilosAmey to get a 'quick win' and provide a capacity increase and more seats, esp in and around Cardiff, from the start.

I've been on 2 car Pacers over the last few weeks, both on weekdays and weekends, that have been full and standing. By taking on off lease Pacers until Dec 2019 and simply de-branding and getting straight into service, Keilos could ensure that all Pacer diagrams run doubled up and that there is enough cover for 150s and 158s away for mods, as well as other Pacers away for maintenance, and avoid the chronic shortages over autumn and winter we've seen with ATW in recent years.

Yes the Pacers are going by 31/12/19, but before then the entire Sprinter fleet will be away for mods with just 17 months from now to get it done in time. Relying on the 769s to arrive in the autumn is very risky. And the 153s due next May from GWR will have to have mods first. Are the 153s due to have accessible toilets? If so, they surely will have to permanently run attached to another 153 or 150 as capacity will be tiny.

Yes, Pacers are politically toxic, but a quick win is being missed to alleviate overcrowding in the Valleys and to the Vale of Glam in giving passengers what they want from the start, a seat.

 

[pemma]

From all the information available, it seems there are no plans to take on any of Northern's 144s or GWR 143s as they are gradually released from this autumn. IMO this is a missed opportunity for KeilosAmey to get a 'quick win' and provide a capacity increase and more seats, esp in and around Cardiff, from the start.

As I said in another thread Northern's Pacers (142s and 144s) are leased until December 2019. However, the plan is to release some early (starting this autumn) but that presumes 16 x 170s, 8 x 769s and the 3 x 150s from West Midlands Trains all being in service as well as EMUs running Manchester-Bolton-Preston. Later batches are dependent on the introduction of new trains and further cascaded Sprinters. If the replacement units aren't in revenue earning service the Pacers have to remain in service.

There's probably more chance of Wales & Borders running a 769 this year than Northern releasing the first Pacer.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Yes there is a plan for 150 & 158 modification but as we all know it's slipping due to the 769 Flex's still being at Brush. Keolis are stuck with this plan which should be in full swing by the time they take over - they hope. There's nothing they can do about it as it's a Welsh Government funded initiative they inherit.

Yes there is a plan for Pacer replacement as to deliver ability we don't know yet, however it's not all the eggs in one basket.theres 5 elements to it so if one slips it's not fatal. Now this has all been thrust at the winning bidder by Welsh Government so you can see how Keolis are playing clever with their multi front approach.

Now I can see January 2020 arriving with some 150's and 158's still to do and the 769's still tied into covering diagrams to allow conversion. Keolis can then say "Aah Welsh Government you told us these conversions would be finished before Christmas it wasn't our plan but something we inherited. As you know the programme started late and was not in our control......."

 

[Dai Corner]

Now I can see January 2020 arriving with some 150's and 158's still to do and the 769's still tied into covering diagrams to allow conversion. Keolis can then say "Aah Welsh Government you told us these conversions would be finished before Christmas it wasn't our plan but something we inherited. As you know the programme started late and was not in our control......."

" ..... we may be able to mitigate the effects but that would be a contract variation and cost you £many"

 

[Gareth Marston]

Regardless of bidder there's only so much that could be done given the timescale imposed on them. Keolis have gone for bits of everything possible except the GA 156 fleet.

Given that there will probably be a few Pacers still floating about post New Year's Day 2019 I just hope that there's honesty about it however given past form don't hold your breadth........

To get rid of 30 Pacer units. They need

12 x MK4 coaches from ECML by Dec 19- to replace the MK3's ATW use. Given that the Azumas are already being tested on ECML and Keolis seem to have first dibs on the replaced stock this looks achievable. Only fly in ointment is lack of confirmation of haulage. Whilst not directly replacing Pacers if there not delivered DMU's would have to cover diagrams. 3rd set as spare means that DMU fleet will not have to cover for them.

5 x 153's from GWR May 19 - Scope for slippage if GWR cascades don't happen on time. Will have to be attached to something else with toilets locked after end of 2019.
Earmarked for West Wales. Might help free up 150/158 if they arrive in May 19.

32 x 170's from Greater Anglia. (4 x 2 & 8 x 3) Dec 19. From rail press the Stadler Flirts look like there progressing on schedule. Imagine they will be running around South Wales Mainline diagrams straight from the Fens with no refurbishment initially.

5 x 3 230's Vivarail - these will be the first units in the new livery. Will release 4 x 150's from North Wales to the Valleys. Expected Mid 2019.

5 x 4 769's needed for 150/158 release which was suppose to have started already. Still no sign of them emerging from Brush in Loughborough. Interestingly I picked up in now deleted presentation this

5 x 4 car (option
for 4 more units)

So it all really hinges on the 769's which as I said is the plan that Keolis have inherited. 153's and 230's if delivered to schedule might give them more scope to releases 150/158 toward end of 2019. However if 769's are not in service by October this year it will be squeaky bum time.

 

[daikilo]

I tend to agree that the critical link is the 769s as they can replace 2 sets of existsing stock whereas everything else is basically just one-for-one. I guess some of the 153 workings could be pairs replacing say a single 150 or strengthenings so not necessarily one-for-one replacements. Presumably the second mk4 set will replace a 175 diagram.

 

[Gareth Marston]

I tend to agree that the critical link is the 769s as they can replace 2 sets of existsing stock whereas everything else is basically just one-for-one. I guess some of the 153 workings could be pairs replacing say a single 150 or strengthenings so not necessarily one-for-one replacements. Presumably the second mk4 set will replace a 175 diagram.

ATW have 2 MK3 LHCS - one does the Gerald North to South Wales run and another does North Wales to Manchester. The new sets will do North to South Wales only with DMU's moving to the Manchester runs.

 

[gareth950]

What's the problem with the 769s and why are they so delayed?
ATW should be running them in service around now, esp. considering ATW have contributed £1 million towards their introduction.

 

[Gareth Marston]

What's the problem with the 769s and why are they so delayed?
ATW should be running them in service around now, esp. considering ATW have contributed £1 million towards their introduction.

The prototype is allegedly going to be shown at Raillive in 10 days.

Here's a very long thread on them
https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...om-319s-initially-for-northern.138660/page-54

To precis "its not as simple as sticking diseil engines on an old EMU to make a magic bi mode as DafT thinks"

 

[daikilo]

ATW have 2 MK3 LHCS - one does the Gerald North to South Wales run and another does North Wales to Manchester. The new sets will do North to South Wales only with DMU's moving to the Manchester runs.

Good point, so another net zero at best (could be -1 if 2x2car replace the Manchester LHCS set) which suggests to me that even 5 769s may not be enough to allow replacement of all Pacers without service reduction.

 

[gareth950]

I'd suggest the follow on order for an extra 4 x 769s to the 5 ordered is put in now.
Maybe they'll arrive by 2021.

 

[pemma]

According to Rail Magazine's Facebook page the first D-Train will be used on Conwy Valley and will include a trolley service!

 

[pemma]

I'd suggest the follow on order for an extra 4 x 769s to the 5 ordered is put in now.
Maybe they'll arrive by 2021.

It could be the possible 4 extra would be a loan of 769s intended for Thames Valley.

 

[The_Engineer]

What's the problem with the 769s and why are they so delayed?
ATW should be running them in service around now, esp. considering ATW have contributed £1 million towards their introduction.

There seems to be a total news blackout as far as Class 769 is concerned. And a total lack of any evidence of any powered movement yet. If I'd ordered these, I'd be very worried now and breathing down Porterbrook's neck very hard.....

 

[Bletchleyite]

According to Rail Magazine's Facebook page the first D-Train will be used on Conwy Valley and will include a trolley service!

On a weekend that may well be quite profitable - tourists do tend to splash out a bit.

Would be good to see some heavy marketing of the line to go with it. Shame they aren't considering route-branding one of the 230s for it as a further marketing boost.

 

[krus_aragon]

On a weekend that may well be quite profitable - tourists do tend to splash out a bit.

Would be good to see some heavy marketing of the line to go with it. Shame they aren't considering route-branding one of the 230s for it as a further marketing boost.

Maybe we'll call it Daisy? Or even District Daisy?

 

[gareth950]

There seems to be a total news blackout as far as Class 769 is concerned. And a total lack of any evidence of any powered movement yet. If I'd ordered these, I'd be very worried now and breathing down Porterbrook's neck very hard.....

Maybe an order of 9 x 230s would arrive sooner

 

[Bletchleyite]

Maybe an order of 9 x 230s would arrive sooner

Might not be an utterly terrible idea.

 

[43096]

There seems to be a total news blackout as far as Class 769 is concerned. And a total lack of any evidence of any powered movement yet. If I'd ordered these, I'd be very worried now and breathing down Porterbrook's neck very hard.....

Pretty pointless exercise giving any of those involved any more grief over it. All those involved know full well the importance of getting these conversions done.

 

[driver_m]

One of those anglia 170s was up at Crewe before. Not messing about with this new franchise are they??

 

[pemma]

One of those anglia 170s was up at Crewe before. Not messing about with this new franchise are they??

You mean Arriva Traincare have had it? They might as well send the unit for scrap then if Mick Cash is to be believed that it's their 'low cost' procedures and 'German profiteering' mean the trains leaving Arriva Traincare are unsafe.