May 2021 Timetable Change

[dk1]

That’s back to full service in May - with the longer trains too.

Good to hear it & that the ex WM centre cars are gradually being slotted it.

 

[irish_rail]

And yet every day there is a spare 220 sat on Laira. Been the case since covid started. Makes you wonder if there are other spare sets on other depots. I've noticed a lot fewer doubled up sets lately on the plymouth route.

 

[craigybagel]

XC's regional network is currently slated to return to the pre-Covid timetable in May. Of course they could still reduce the service nearer the time.

There is indeed an extraordinary disparity between TOCs in their level of service, which can't really be explained by "demand" or "train crew outbreaks".

In truth I think this situation is exposing and entrenching the underlying position that TOCs were in pre-Covid.

I think it's more a case of exacerbating those issues. The TOCs that have a higher rate of staff turnover and need to take on more trainees each year to keep going are the ones struggling, as with training being slowed down or even stopped in some cases that is obstructing the supply line of new train crew. The other issue is TOCs where a large amount of training needs to take place, either because of new routes or traction.

That said, XC doesn't really tick either box there.....

 

[g22]

Most of the fast Sheffield to London and Nottingham to London EMR services are currently showing as Cancelled on Real Time Trains for Saturday 22nd May the first Saturday of the new timetable.

 

[43055]

And yet every day there is a spare 220 sat on Laira. Been the case since covid started. Makes you wonder if there are other spare sets on other depots. I've noticed a lot fewer doubled up sets lately on the plymouth route.

I would imagine Central Rivers has a few sets spare as well. There was a point that there were very few double sets out but it has ramped up again and looking at RTT it looks like most services are double sets.

Most of the fast Sheffield to London and Nottingham to London EMR services are currently showing as Cancelled on Real Time Trains for Saturday 22nd May the first Saturday of the new timetable.

Engineering Works between Radlett and West Hampstead. Pathing shows the remaining services running on the slow lines.

 

[g22]

Engineering Works between Radlett and West Hampstead. Pathing shows the remaining services running on the slow lines.

Thanks for that info.

 

[Ianno87]

And yet every day there is a spare 220 sat on Laira. Been the case since covid started. Makes you wonder if there are other spare sets on other depots. I've noticed a lot fewer doubled up sets lately on the plymouth route.

Because it is never sensible to plan on 100% utilisation of the fleet.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

XC's regional network is currently slated to return to the pre-Covid timetable in May. Of course they could still reduce the service nearer the time.

There is indeed an extraordinary disparity between TOCs in their level of service, which can't really be explained by "demand" or "train crew outbreaks".

In truth I think this situation is exposing and entrenching the underlying position that TOCs were in pre-Covid.

Given all TOCs don't have a bottom line to worry about anymore the Dept of Transport should be leaning on all TOCs to bring their services upto required levels although limiting it to what can be reliably delivered is essential for at least retaining those passengers wishing to use the railways. Noting issues that some depots have with train crew the TOCs should be proposing recovery plans to support there ongoing financial support and those should be published. There is also a danger here if the industry doesn't show it has a plan to deal with this itself the Treasury may see an opportunity to permanently remove support and resolve the issue that way.

 

[irish_rail]

Because it is never sensible to plan on 100% utilisation of the fleet.

When did I suggest they did? I just pointed out that since covid has started additional sets have clearly been stood down as spare, I never suggested that every single voyager should be in service 24/7.

 

[Bald Rick]

Noting issues that some depots have with train crew the TOCs should be proposing recovery plans to support there ongoing financial support

They have.

and those should be published.

They won’t be.

 

[Watershed]

Because it is never sensible to plan on 100% utilisation of the fleet.

There are plenty of locations where 100% of stabled units are put into service. Obviously, as a whole, you need to keep some units free for maintenance and exams (typically 10-15% of the fleet), but I don't think any kind of heavy maintenance is done to Voyagers at Laira depot.

Utilisation is not really the main impediment to putting all Laira Voyagers into service.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

They won’t be.

Yeah I know that but given the govts has been far more transparent than usual over how there making decisions over Covid and the road map out of it seems reasonable that the industry, which is being heavily supported by the taxpayer, now actually shows what it is doing to sort things out however long it takes to get crewing levels back up to full establishment.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Given all TOCs don't have a bottom line to worry about anymore

Are you serious? I’ve worked in this industry for nearly 15 years and the current financial situation is the most unprecedented I’ve ever witnessed. Internal permitted expenditure is basically nil. Recruitment is essential replacements only. Training is essentials only. Resources are pared to the bone. There’s a genuine fear among those around me that any sort of DfT perception of waste will come back on them hard. Everyone is acutely aware they’re being funded almost entirely by taxpayer outlay rather than revenue. The bottom line has never been so obsessively adhered to.

 

[Jamesrob637]

Is there a separate thread for uplifts from Monday? There are some due to take place.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Are you serious? I’ve worked in this industry for nearly 15 years and the current financial situation is the most unprecedented I’ve ever witnessed. Internal permitted expenditure is basically nil. Recruitment is essential replacements only. Training is essentials only. Resources are pared to the bone. There’s a genuine fear among those around me that any sort of DfT perception of waste will come back on them hard. Everyone is acutely aware they’re being funded almost entirely by taxpayer outlay rather than revenue. The bottom line has never been so obsessively adhered to.

Perhaps I should have articulated better that the TOCs don't have to worry about impact on their P&L line so should be doing what is necessary to run a sensible level of service (i acknowledge that it may need to be restricted in the short term where there are resourcing issues) as agreed with Dep of Transport. Your inside view is most informative and illuminates I suspect that Dept of Transport isn't interested in specifying what service levels it wants to buy for each route and is just telling TOC management to minimise costs. I also don't know how much scrutiny they are doing of the "monthly bill" but this reeks of bean counters telling them what should be saved. My understanding is DofT, under pressure from Treasury, needs to minimise additional subsidy but to do that they need to maximise revenue and that comes from both a reliable service but one that also entices the passengers to come in the first place. Some of the cuts being reported across posts won't do that and its a nonsense that service levels on some TOC routes are way in excess of what is necessary to service available demand yet other routes are being heavily constrained.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

I think you’re jumping to a lot of conclusions based on what is being said.

 

[Goldfish62]

Perhaps I should have articulated better that the TOCs don't have to worry about impact on their P&L line so should be doing what is necessary to run a sensible level of service (i acknowledge that it may need to be restricted in the short term where there are resourcing issues) as agreed with Dep of Transport. Your inside view is most informative and illuminates I suspect that Dept of Transport isn't interested in specifying what service levels it wants to buy for each route and is just telling TOC management to minimise costs. I also don't know how much scrutiny they are doing of the "monthly bill" but this reeks of bean counters telling them what should be saved. My understanding is DofT, under pressure from Treasury, needs to minimise additional subsidy but to do that they need to maximise revenue and that comes from both a reliable service but one that also entices the passengers to come in the first place. Some of the cuts being reported across posts won't do that and its a nonsense that service levels on some TOC routes are way in excess of what is necessary to service available demand yet other routes are being heavily constrained.

Reading Modern Railways recently there seems to be a couple of things at play which come as no surprise to me:

1. The economists at the Treasury think that demand for rail travel in this country is inelastic, ie however high you push the fares and however much you cut back the service demand will be unchanged. This is clearly nonsense.
2. The Treasury is demanding that the DfT gets 20% savings from the TOCs. The DfT thinks this merely equates to cutting services by 20%, not understanding that the fact that so many costs on the railways are fixed you'd need to cut services by a lot more than 20% to achieve such savings.

I'm sure things are a lot more nuanced than this, but it does sound all depressingly credible.

 

[Bald Rick]

Your inside view is most informative and illuminates I suspect that Dept of Transport isn't interested in specifying what service levels it wants to buy for each route and is just telling TOC management to minimise costs.

The DfT is very definitely specifying the service it wants to buy. It is doing this with guidance from each TOC.

Reading Modern Railways recently there seems to be a couple of things at play which come as no surprise to me:

1. The economists at the Treasury think that demand for rail travel in this country is inelastic, ie however high you push the fares and however much you cut back the service demand will be unchanged. This is clearly nonsense.
2. The Treasury is demanding that the DfT gets 20% savings from the TOCs. The DfT thinks this merely equates to cutting services by 20%, not understanding that the fact that so many costs on the railways are fixed you'd need to cut services by a lot more than 20% to achieve such savings.

I'm sure things are a lot more nuanced than this, but it does sound all depressingly credible.

A lot more nuanced, as both your points are, essentially, nonsense. Sorry if this is a bit blunt.

 

[SteveyBee131]

Wake me up when we're back on topic of the thread, which I thought was the upcoming timetable change

 

[bunnahabhain]

also worth mentioning that if you were rostered an 8 hour job which was cancelled due to engineering works but allocated a new special turn of 10 hours you’d have to do the whole 10 hours but gain two hours overtime. That 8 hour turn could also turn into a 6 hour turn with PNB on the end though.

Not in my contract it doesn't and I suspect that's the same for most ex Central contracts. I don't have to work 1 minute of overtime and I'm only "obliged" to work rostered Sundays. If turns are amended I keep my shift length but the start time could move 2.5hrs either side of the datum.

Having said that however, goodwill and pride in the job usually means I do my best to ensure nothing gets cancelled due to lack of a train guard.

 

[Goldfish62]

The DfT is very definitely specifying the service it wants to buy. It is doing this with guidance from each TOC.




A lot more nuanced, as both your points are, essentially, nonsense. Sorry if this is a bit blunt.

Considering that these are direct extracts from the opinions of respected industry journalists I think rather than simply rubbishing you should elaborate. Please, I am genuinely interested and I'm sure everyone else in the forum is.

 

[Bald Rick]

Considering that these are direct extracts from the opinions of respected industry journalists I think rather than simply rubbishing you should elaborate. Please, I am genuinely interested and I'm sure everyone else in the forum is.

Ok -

1) the economists at the Treasury are very smart. Amongst the best there are. They know perfectly well what demand elasticities there are for all sorts of transport demand, and as Roger Ford says many of the markets are, or at least were, inelastic. Not all of them obviously. The Treasury also know to listen to the specialist Transport Economists at the DfT, and the Market people at the TOCs. One of the very best (probably the best) of the latter is currently leading the cross industry exercise on how to get revenue back, and everything, absolutely everything, is being explored.

2) the Treasury isn’t demanding funding cuts of 20%, although it would be dereliction of their fiduciary duties not to request budgetary forecasts for the next 12-24 months and options for funding reductions compared to now. Not compared to 13 months ago. And the DfT know very well that a 20% cut in services does not result in a 20% cut in costs. Even if they had completely abandoned any attempt of being an ‘informed client’ for the past 25 years of running franchised train services, and examining franchise costs in detail, and ignored all the cost data coming through in the last 12 months, then they would only have needed to look at the costs / support data published in Roger Ford’s recent columns in Modern Railways to know that, roughly, a 10% reduction in services reduces costs by about 1%.

 

[yorksrob]

One of the very best (probably the best) of the latter is currently leading the cross industry exercise on how to get revenue back, and everything, absolutely everything, is being explored.

I hope that includes the National Railcard.

 

[yorkie]

Can we stick to discussing the May 2021 Timetable Change in this thread please?

If anyone wishes to discuss anything else, please create a new thread (if there isn't one already) or use an existing thread (if there is one)

 

[Jamesrob637]

Can we stick to discussing the May 2021 Timetable Change in this thread please?

If anyone wishes to discuss anything else, please create a new thread (if there isn't one already) or use an existing thread (if there is one)

Can you see a thread dedicated to changes from tomorrow, as there will be some, or is it an amalgamation of this thread?

 

[yorkie]

Can you see a thread dedicated to changes from tomorrow, as there will be some, or is it an amalgamation of this thread?

If there is not already a thread to discuss changes from tomorrow, feel free to create one

 

[Goldfish62]

Ok -

1) the economists at the Treasury are very smart. Amongst the best there are. They know perfectly well what demand elasticities there are for all sorts of transport demand, and as Roger Ford says many of the markets are, or at least were, inelastic. Not all of them obviously. The Treasury also know to listen to the specialist Transport Economists at the DfT, and the Market people at the TOCs. One of the very best (probably the best) of the latter is currently leading the cross industry exercise on how to get revenue back, and everything, absolutely everything, is being explored.

2) the Treasury isn’t demanding funding cuts of 20%, although it would be dereliction of their fiduciary duties not to request budgetary forecasts for the next 12-24 months and options for funding reductions compared to now. Not compared to 13 months ago. And the DfT know very well that a 20% cut in services does not result in a 20% cut in costs. Even if they had completely abandoned any attempt of being an ‘informed client’ for the past 25 years of running franchised train services, and examining franchise costs in detail, and ignored all the cost data coming through in the last 12 months, then they would only have needed to look at the costs / support data published in Roger Ford’s recent columns in Modern Railways to know that, roughly, a 10% reduction in services reduces costs by about 1%.

Thank you very much - very interesting indeed.

 

[snookertam]

Apologies if wrong thread but I see on RTT that ScotRail are continuing their reduced timetable after the change. Certainly that’s what seems to have been uploaded and seems to continue well into the summer.

Any word on whether this is correct, and if so, why? I think they run the risk of undermining rail travel as a viable option for people after it’s already taken a hammering.

 

[AJW12]

I mentioned that above - on Twitter they are saying they will be introducing more services in the May change but not how many / where, and are being short on detail for now.
Agreed though. I think a lot of the Scottish destinations are going to experience quite an uplift of people - particularly off peak - as Staycations start to explode shortly. I’ve done some work with the Cairngorms authority and they’re expecting huge numbers of visitors when able.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Apologies if wrong thread but I see on RTT that ScotRail are continuing their reduced timetable after the change. Certainly that’s what seems to have been uploaded and seems to continue well into the summer.

Any word on whether this is correct, and if so, why? I think they run the risk of undermining rail travel as a viable option for people after it’s already taken a hammering.

As has been mentioned across the forum on various posts returning to a 100% timetable this summer for most TOCs is near on impossible.

Over the past year the steady stream of retirements have continued but there’s been very little training of replacements successfully completed due to pandemic restrictions. Training on new traction types, for example on Scotrail HSTs has been hampered too. This all affects the resource available on a daily basis to operate the train service and the timetable has to allow for this.