Northern timetable plan for May 2018

[lejog]

The requirements of the Northern Hub effectively mandated 7 services through Oxford Rd by specifying that services from all "major corridors" served both a single central Manchester station (for which Piccadilly was chosen) and Manchester Airport. These 7 IIRC were Leeds/Huddersfield (2tph), Leeds/Bradford(1tph), Preston/Bolton (1tph), Liverpool (Chat Moss)(1tph), Liverpool(CLC)(1tph) and Chester(1tph) - Sheffield and The South were also major corridors.

The major corridors were indeed chosen on factors heavily biased towards maximising external investment into the North - this as well as obviously being desirable for the area, increases tax revenues in future years and so improves the business case for investment. So yes "attracting businessmen" (Chinese or not) was a prime requirement for the Hub. Passenger numbers (current and potential) were also lesser factors - the TOCs need fare revenue after all. I'm afraid Southport didn't score anywhere highly enough on either count to be a major corridor.

The May 2018 timetable implements all the Hub services, but the 5 extra paths do not appear to have been chosen according any logical requirements, but a mixture of DfT/Local/industry politics, which means that the CLC gets 1 extra service (fair enough given the existence of the Liverpool-Norwich service) and the Preston/Bolton corridor an astonishing 4 extra services. However despite this Southport lost its service, it seems to me because local politicians did not shout loudly enough over the last 5 years compared with industry voices (who wanted to retain Scotland/Cumbria services), TfGM wanting Bolton/Stockport services etc.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One of the arguments the group has put forward has been that Southport is a holiday destination and needs the direct link to the Airport to attract tourists and "Chinese businessmen": https://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/...concern-future-southports-rail-links-10876567

Who's going to fly to a fairly nondescript seaside resort? There's hardly a shortage of such things.

Southport isn't a bad place, but as far as air travel goes it's an origin, not a destination, simply because there are loads of fairly nondescript seaside resorts the world over. And as I said it'll mostly go to Liverpool.

What is wanted, as I said, is not a service to the Airport, it's all about Oxford Road and Piccadilly and easy access to those parts of Manchester like the university, particularly from Burscough Bridge which has for many years (as long as I can remember, even when the service was much less frequent than it is now) acted as a West Lancs Parkway for journeys to Manchester.

 

[pemma]

Chester is a tourist destination too (not to mention further west) and that will be losing its own Airport service which it's only had for a handful of years, compared to the 20 years for the Southport. As stated above a very straightforward change at Salford Crescent can be made for Airport and Piccadilly passengers.

Will Chester be losing it's Airport services? Northern bidders were told to leave a path for it to go to either the Airport or Victoria and I'm pretty sure Arriva took up the Airport path option.

Chester, unlike Southport, also has a University. These days universities generate a lot of airport travel due to the number of international students studying in Britain.

 

[pemma]

One of the arguments the group has put forward has been that Southport is a holiday destination and needs the direct link to the Airport to attract tourists and "Chinese businessmen": https://www.southportvisiter.co.uk/...concern-future-southports-rail-links-10876567

I did once sit behind a Chinese couple with Manchester Airport tickets on a Southport service. I wonder if there were any other Chinese passengers travelling between Southport and the Airport that day or even that week?

 

[Philip]

Will Chester be losing it's Airport services? Northern bidders were told to leave a path for it to go to either the Airport or Victoria and I'm pretty sure Arriva took up the Airport path option.

Yes but only temporarily. They've been told that they can't run to the Airport beyond May next year.

 

[lejog]

Will Chester be losing it's Airport services? Northern bidders were told to leave a path for it to go to either the Airport or Victoria and I'm pretty sure Arriva took up the Airport path option.

Chester, unlike Southport, also has a University. These days universities generate a lot of airport travel due to the number of international students studying in Britain.

IIRC, the Chester - Airport service has ORR approval until the planned date for the end of the ATW franchise, which was sometime after May 18. If services run smoothly after May 18, there would be no reason for ORR to remove it, I doubt very much the Welsh government would remove it from the franchise spec.

 

[Philip]

IIRC, the Chester - Airport service has ORR approval until the planned date for the end of the ATW franchise, which was sometime after May 18. If services run smoothly after May 18, there would be no reason for ORR to remove it, I doubt very much the Welsh government would remove it from the franchise spec.

The requirement is 5 Northern services per hour and 4 TPE per hour serving the Airport. There is no capacity for any extra, hence why the Chester service will be terminating at Piccadilly again from May (unless one of the Northern or TPE services down to run to the Airport gets removed that is).

 

[lejog]

Yes but only temporarily. They've been told that they can't run to the Airport beyond May next year.

See http://orr.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/24567/s22-atw-78th-sa-agreement.pdf

The amendments made to the Contract shall have effect from the Effective Date and shall cease to have effect on the Expiry Date or earlier termination of the Contract.

"The Contract" being ATW's track access agreement. Edit: Or in plainer English see the covering letter:

This agreement extends the expiry date for the access rights granted under the 73rd supplemental agreement permitting ATW to operate services between Manchester Piccadilly and Manchester Airport. The rights are due to expire on 10 December 2017 and this agreement will extend that to the expiry of the Franchise Agreement (14 October 2018).

 

[Deerfold]

Chester, unlike Southport, also has a University. These days universities generate a lot of airport travel due to the number of international students studying in Britain.

You can do University courses in Southport
https://www.southport.ac.uk/uploadedfiles/documents/HE Course Guide 2017.pdf

 

[Deerfold]

Sandgrounders will go by car or taxi to Liverpool Airport, Bradford people to LBA.

Unfortunately LBA serves far fewer destinations than Manchester. Despite living much closer to LBA, I'm far more likely to travel from Manchester despite preferring the experience at LBA.

 

[pemma]

You can do University courses in Southport
https://www.southport.ac.uk/uploadedfiles/documents/HE Course Guide 2017.pdf

A lot of colleges offer a limited selection of university courses, aimed at local people. However, they aren't offering tens of thousands of degree places and participating in student exchange programs and EU and other international schemes.

 

[pemma]

Unfortunately LBA serves far fewer destinations than Manchester. Despite living much closer to LBA, I'm far more likely to travel from Manchester despite preferring the experience at LBA.

LBA does have a lot more flights than it used to have. Even with Manchester not every destination is served every day of the week so if you need a flight to a certain place on a specific date you might have to go to another airport. PIA trailed direct flights to Pakistan from LBA but they weren't successful.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I still don't get the obsession over through services to Manchester Airport (as distinct from Oxford Road/Piccadilly, though the strength of this argument has reduced with the progressive development of the Northern Quarter - when I started frequenting Manchester in about 1994 the area around Vic was just a bit of a run down wasteland).

People cope with changing onto the Heathrow Express.

I know it's a terminus of convenience, but there are other places east of Manchester you could through-run a DMU to, as well as a few for EMUs too like Hazel Grove and Stockport.

A complete side-thought here...would it be more affordable than the full P15-16 project to deck over the area between 13-14 and the Picc trainshed and provide 2 or 3 5-car west-facing terminal platforms?

 

[PR1Berske]

A complete side-thought here...would it be more affordable than the full P15-16 project to deck over the area between 13-14 and the Picc trainshed and provide 2 or 3 5-car west-facing terminal platforms?

I think you've just created an idea for a new thread with that!

 

[Bletchleyite]

A complete side-thought here...would it be more affordable than the full P15-16 project to deck over the area between 13-14 and the Picc trainshed and provide 2 or 3 5-car west-facing terminal platforms?

I think you've just created an idea for a new thread with that!

And why not?

https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/manchester-piccadilly-p15-16-my-idea-for-an-alternative.157249/

 

[Bantamzen]

I still don't get the obsession over through services to Manchester Airport (as distinct from Oxford Road/Piccadilly, though the strength of this argument has reduced with the progressive development of the Northern Quarter - when I started frequenting Manchester in about 1994 the area around Vic was just a bit of a run down wasteland).

People cope with changing onto the Heathrow Express.

I know it's a terminus of convenience, but there are other places east of Manchester you could through-run a DMU to, as well as a few for EMUs too like Hazel Grove and Stockport.

A complete side-thought here...would it be more affordable than the full P15-16 project to deck over the area between 13-14 and the Picc trainshed and provide 2 or 3 5-car west-facing terminal platforms?

How many of those people using the HE are actually travelling from beyond London, as opposed to staying there? As a premium service isn't it primarily focused on business / executive travellers going to and from the capital? Many people arriving from elsewhere are as likely to use a BA shuttle flight from somewhere like Manchester as they are train / tube / HE. And besides Heathrow serves a different market with the prime focus being key cities & long haul flights, whereas Manchester still caters for a large part of the tour company market. Many people using Manchester *might* be more tempted to use a direct train when they start from places like Bradford / Halifax / Calder Valley, as though LBA's market is expanding it still nowhere near matches Manchester's range of destinations, especially for city breaks. Even more so these days as the M62 increasingly turns into a trans-Pennine car park, with seemingly daily problems on it.

 

[lejog]

I still don't get the obsession over through services to Manchester Airport (as distinct from Oxford Road/Piccadilly, though the strength of this argument has reduced with the progressive development of the Northern Quarter - when I started frequenting Manchester in about 1994 the area around Vic was just a bit of a run down wasteland).

People cope with changing onto the Heathrow Express.

As I've explained in the above post and to you previously, the business case for the Northern Hub depends on attracting investment to the North, thus increasing future tax revenue to repay the investment. Almost every major airport in the world has train services to the nearest city, having services throughout the region is far less common and provides a competitive advantage in attracting investment.

Until you realise this that this formed a significant proportion of the business case, rather than the less significant factors you keep raising, you won't "get the obsession". If the business case solely relied on passenger numbers and TOC revenue, it wouldn't have happened.

Anyway, there are threads elsewhere on this topic, can we please keep this thread on the topic of what's actually happening in May 18?

 

[pemma]

I know it's a terminus of convenience, but there are other places east of Manchester you could through-run a DMU to, as well as a few for EMUs too like Hazel Grove and Stockport.

Airport is easier due to less pathing constraints. In the days when Blackpool to Buxton services were normal in the morning peak two services from the Fylde Coast went on the Mid-Cheshire line instead of the Buxton line because it was easier to path a through service towards Altrincham, than one towards Hazel Grove.

 

[Starmill]

Admittedly, you do lose a single change to Sheffield/Nottingham etc.

No you don't, you change at Liverpool South Parkway.

 

[Ianno87]

Airport is easier due to less pathing constraints. In the days when Blackpool to Buxton services were normal in the morning peak two services from the Fylde Coast went on the Mid-Cheshire line instead of the Buxton line because it was easier to path a through service towards Altrincham, than one towards Hazel Grove.

Ah, the legendary St. Anne's-on-the-Sea to Greenbank service!

No you don't, you change at Liverpool South Parkway.

Excellent point!

 

[Bletchleyite]

Ah, the legendary St. Anne's-on-the-Sea to Greenbank service!

I remember seeing that one at Preston and wondering who on earth thought of serving two branch lines in part rather than fully!

 

[pemma]

Ah, the legendary St. Anne's-on-the-Sea to Greenbank service!

There was also a Blackpool North to Chester service before it. Pre-Northern there was a Chester to Warrington to Manchester to Altrincham to Chester service at roughly the same time.

 

[pemma]

I remember seeing that one at Preston and wondering who on earth thought of serving two branch lines in part rather than fully!

The Mid-Cheshire timetable in the Chester direction was inconsistent at the time in the morning. It went something like 06:40 Manchester-Chester, 07:40 Manchester-Chester (ex-Blackpool North), 08:20 Manchester-Greenbank (ex-St Annes), 09:24 Manchester-Chester and then hourly until the evening peak. The inconsistent timetable actually was better for the local schools and people commuting from Greater Manchester to Knutsford/Northwich than the consistent hourly timetable we have now!

There were some strange anomalies in the timetable as a result of that St Annes service. One was under FNW when they loaned the 2 x 158s to TPE and used a loaned loco hauled set on that service - the service still terminated at Greenbank but ran ECS to Chester before working a late afternoon Chester-Blackpool service. Another was when using multiple units the southbound working terminated at Greenbank but the northbound return working started at Northwich. The return working went to Blackpool North and because it was the first off-peak train there were a surprisingly high number of passengers from Northwich/Knutsford/Altrincham for Salford, Bolton, Preston and Blackpool.

 

[yorksrob]

As discuss, most Yorkshire-bound connections will be moving to Victoria anyway.

London/Birmingham/Scotland you change at Wigan (unless you wanted a single change onto a Bristol/Bournemouth XC).

Admittedly, you do lose a single change to Sheffield/Nottingham etc.

Depends whats more important - a minority of long distance travellers, or the majority of regular Manchester bound travellers who might prefer consistency of services at Victoria/Salford Central.

Yes, it was Sheffield I was heading for. I can see a consistent half hourly service from the same place has its benefits though.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

No you don't, you change at Liverpool South Parkway.

Giving you time to enjoy 22 intermediate stops to Manchester Airport via South Parkway, instead of 11 via Salford Crescent.

 

[Starmill]

Giving you time to enjoy 22 intermediate stops to Manchester Airport via South Parkway, instead of 11 via Salford Crescent.

For someone travelling from Southport to Nottingham. I would not recommend going that way for someone travelling to Manchester Airport.

 

[DanNCL]

Is the through Morpeth to Carlisle service still going ahead in May, or has that plan now been scrapped? I believe the plan was for an hourly service from Morpeth to Carlisle, but for the service to be split at Newcastle (like it currently is) on the way back

 

[Halish Railway]

How many spare paths have been left for freight and rush hour trains on the Oxford road corridor?

 

[Starmill]

Services between Newcastle and Carlisle Monday - Saturday are not being improved in this timetable change. The Sunday service is being improved, and for the first time ever there will be a 2-hourly Northern service to Manors, Cramlington and Morpeth on Sundays (currently there is no Northern service). They will not be joined though.

 

[DanNCL]

Services between Newcastle and Carlisle Monday - Saturday are not being improved in this timetable change. The Sunday service is being improved, and for the first time ever there will be a 2-hourly Northern service to Manors, Cramlington and Morpeth on Sundays (currently there is no Northern service). They will not be joined though.

I'm sure that the Newcastle to Carlisle service was meant to be going up to 2TPH at some point in the future; is this now not happening?