Northern timetable plan for May 2018

[stu99]

That looks like it will be a ScotRail unit seeing as it works in to Glasgow from East Kilbride. Seems strange that there are no other services though...

The 0646 from Newcastle to Glasgow Central seems to have been replaced by this service https://www.opentraintimes.com/schedule/Y20031/2018-05-21 from Middlesbrough to Carlisle, leaving Newcastle at 0659. I would be surprised if this replacement service uses a ScotRail unit

Yes me too, we'll probably just have to wait until the services are finalised before we find out for definite.
There was a commitment that there would be two services to Carlisle before 0900, but the new 2N05 07:23 Newcastle to Carlisle only just does that!

 

[ItsGrimUpNorth]

Not all services are on OTT yet.

Cheers, assumed that was the case. Any idea when the full set will be?

 

[berneyarms]

Trains have to be available to book 12 weeks in advance - that means February 25th for the new timetable which doesn’t come into effect until May 20th.

As I’ve posted before this discussion is a bit ahead of itself in terms of the final timetable.

 

[SeanM1997]

Does anyone know why the 1317 and 1517 Crewe-Manchester-Liverpool service in May is yet to be shown but every hour between 0600 and 1900 has the service showing? Its only in the northbound direction as all southbound services are showing?

 

[Mathew S]

Does anyone know why the 1317 and 1517 Crewe-Manchester-Liverpool service in May is yet to be shown but every hour between 0600 and 1900 has the service showing? Its only in the northbound direction as all southbound services are showing?

It doesn't really mean anything as yet, the timetable won't be confirmed still for a few weeks. Could simply be a mistake. We won't know for certain what's what until the 12 week deadline (so 3-4 weeks from today).

 

[pemma]

Apparently we could see changes to Northern times as late as March due to issues relating to electrification delays.

A number of Northern services through Stockport are missing, it probably means their plan A for paths didn't work out.

 

[js1000]

The service from Mauldeth Road is absolutely awful according to the times as available at present. Moving from 29 and 31 minute gaps to 20 and 40 minutes as there's no corresponding improvement that's absolutely awful. I also frequently travel Mauldeth Road to East Didsbury and that's cut from half hourly to hourly. I'm exceptionally disappointed and I'm pretty shocked that randomly cutting our service with no quid pro quo and no consultation is considered acceptable.

The reduced service at Mauldeth Road is concerning when East Didsbury 5 minutes down the line will have 4 services per hour even though it has 280pa vs 400pa at Mauldeth Road. That does not make any sense at all and I don't think Northern et al have done their homework.

 

[Starmill]

The reduced service at Mauldeth Road is concerning when East Didsbury 5 minutes down the line will have 4 services per hour even though it has 280pa vs 400pa at Mauldeth Road.

I agree, it's a very serious problem.

That does not make any sense at all and I don't think Northern et al have done their homework.

There is a possibility that they know something we don't know. If they do, I'm hoping to find out what it is.

They could be using some sort of trip-based model, which may well show that demand for travel between the East Didsbury area and central Manchester is much higher than from the Burnage area (served by Mauldeth Road as well as Burnage). I would believe that. But it's clear that rail will never be competitive with the 10tph provided by Metrolink or the 20-30 buses per hour. Rail had a key advantage over buses and trams which was price at off-peak times. This is now gone as a result of 100% and more fare increases, so exactly what the commercial strategy is here I do not know.

 

[Ianno87]

The reduced service at Mauldeth Road is concerning when East Didsbury 5 minutes down the line will have 4 services per hour even though it has 280pa vs 400pa at Mauldeth Road. That does not make any sense at all and I don't think Northern et al have done their homework.

Mauldeth Rd could be artificially inflated by the "oh, a a single from Mauldeth Rd, please. That's where I got on, honest" crowd with the RPIs at Piccadilly.

The raw usage numbers seldom tell the whole strory...

 

[Bungle965]

Mauldeth Rd could be artificially inflated by the "oh, a a single from Mauldeth Rd, please. That's where I got on, honest" crowd with the RPIs at Piccadilly.

The raw usage numbers seldom tell the whole strory...

If they are paying by card and if the machine/ticket office that is there is working/open then instead of buying a ticket, they will be taken aside of one of the members of the Carlisle staff and most likely fined. They would hopefully not attempt the same trick again.
Those are two very big if's however, as a significant proportion still use cash and it further relies on the new machines working, they seem to be completely hit and miss at the moment.
Sam

 

[Geeves]

I wouldn't trust anything that is published or available yet. The timetable planners have had to start from scratch.

 

[Starmill]

Mauldeth Rd could be artificially inflated by the "oh, a a single from Mauldeth Rd, please. That's where I got on, honest" crowd with the RPIs at Piccadilly.

While this is a possibility, it is not likely to account for the very large magnitude of the difference. I am sure a few thousand people get away with this, but I find it very hard to believe it's more than a third of the users. Anecdotally there are always more people waiting at Mauldeth Road going towards Manchester for off-peak trips than at any of the other stations.

Enforcement against short-faring has been increased significantly over recent years too, so you would expect the effect to be reversed and it has not been. I know as I have been inconvenienced by the revenue protection staff, despite the fact that I had acted within the law and in accordance with the NRCoT.

Finally, weighting is added to the ORR stats for zonal tickets and as a result of surveys / passenger counts and these will not be affected by short faring. This further dilutes the impact of that on the statistics.

Those are two very big if's however, as a significant proportion still use cash and it further relies on the new machines working, they seem to be completely hit and miss at the moment.

Yes this is a serious problem. Mauldeth Road has had a ticket machine for many years. The other stations along the line are getting them only now.

 

[323235]

One of the ticket machines has been out of service at Poynton a few times and it has only been up and running a couple of weeks.

 

[Mathew S]

I wouldn't trust anything that is published or available yet. The timetable planners have had to start from scratch.

Completely from scratch? They've been dumped deep in the proverbial by the engineering overuns for sure, but I was imagining that they would try to limit upheaval by starting from what they already had and tweaking it to make it work as well as possible for one more timetable 'cycle'. Or are things even worse than I thought?

 

[Chester1]

Completely from scratch? They've been dumped deep in the proverbial by the engineering overuns for sure, but I was imagining that they would try to limit upheaval by starting from what they already had and tweaking it to make it work as well as possible for one more timetable 'cycle'. Or are things even worse than I thought?

TPE are still introducing their new timetable so Northern need to design a timetable that works without EMUs freeing up ~16 DMUs. They can't just run roll over their current one.

 

[Mathew S]

TPE are still introducing their new timetable so Northern need to design a timetable that works without EMUs freeing up ~16 DMUs. They can't just run roll over their current one.

Sorry, I wasn't clear in my earlier post. I was meaning using the new timetable as a starting point and tweaking that to make it work, would have been what I would have expected. Of course, I know nothing about planning, so there may well be good reasons for not doing that.
16 diagrams, that's a lot to try and fill...

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

TPE are still introducing their new timetable so Northern need to design a timetable that works without EMUs freeing up ~16 DMUs. They can't just run roll over their current one.

Run Airport-Blackpool with EMUs via Golborne (along with TPE's Scots).
start Cumbria DMU services at Preston.
terminate Calder Valley-Airport at Oxford Road.
Northern have to find DMUs for the replacement TPE CLC "Scarborough" service diverted to the Airport.
Maybe cut back Leeds-Chester at Victoria.
Send Macclesfield-Blackpool EMU to terminate Victoria.
Run Manchester OR/Vic-Bolton-Preston DMU shuttles.
You can still run Liverpool-Airport-Crewe and Liverpool-Blackpool EMUs.
Cue a torrent of "xxx crews don't sign" and "not cleared" posts...
As it's a mess of NR/DfT's making, they will be paying for the changes (and/or relaxing franchise commitments) until the wiring is finished.

 

[pemma]

Not extending a Calder Vale service to the Airport and using an EMU on an Airport shuttle has to be top of the list, given the franchise agreement doesn't require Calder Valley to Airport services to be introduced until 2019 and TPE will be providing 2tph between Victoria and the Airport.

As Northern expect to get more DMUs between May and December it would seem sensible to introduce the Harrogate and Retford enhancements between May and December, as they are standalone changes, while pretty much all the Manchester ones aren't.

 

[Deerfold]

Run Airport-Blackpool with EMUs via Golborne (along with TPE's Scots).
start Cumbria DMU services at Preston.
terminate Calder Valley-Airport at Oxford Road.
Northern have to find DMUs for the replacement TPE CLC "Scarborough" service diverted to the Airport.
Maybe cut back Leeds-Chester at Victoria.
Send Macclesfield-Blackpool EMU to terminate Victoria.
Run Manchester OR/Vic-Bolton-Preston DMU shuttles.
You can still run Liverpool-Airport-Crewe and Liverpool-Blackpool EMUs.
Cue a torrent of "xxx crews don't sign" and "not cleared" posts...
As it's a mess of NR/DfT's making, they will be paying for the changes (and/or relaxing franchise commitments) until the wiring is finished.

What will you do with the unit that's now (presumably) blocking Platform 5 at Oxford Road?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Send it to Preston as one of the shuttles?
Calder Valley trains already turn there, mixed in with the terminating CLC stoppers.
I don't say it's easy, but deferring some of the frequency increases on outlying routes should make it workable.
TPE should also be able to contribute a couple of units now they are introducing 2xLHCS sets.
Just trying to help

 

[pemma]

TPE should also be able to contribute a couple of units now they are introducing 2xLHCS sets.

Are you sure? They'll need additional units for running the hourly Manchester-Leeds replacement for Northern services (which will probably free up enough units for Northern to run the Liverpool-Manchester via Warrington replacement), as well as for the half-hourly all day Newcastle service.

You could just as easily say ATW will have a spare unit as they'll be carrying fewer passengers on the Manchester-Warrington-Chester corridor once the Northern Connect service starts.

 

[Deerfold]

Send it to Preston as one of the shuttles?
Calder Valley trains already turn there, mixed in with the terminating CLC stoppers.
I don't say it's easy, but deferring some of the frequency increases on outlying routes should make it workable.
TPE should also be able to contribute a couple of units now they are introducing 2xLHCS sets.
Just trying to help

Some turn there, but they can't currently manage an hourly service to Oxford Road (except on Sundays). There's currently 6 a day Monday-Saturday.

 

[lejog]

TPE are still introducing their new timetable so Northern need to design a timetable that works without EMUs freeing up ~16 DMUs. They can't just run roll over their current one.

Is that figure of 16 DMU units just from the delayed Bolton electrification? How many 769s were due to be in service by May?

 

[lejog]

Are you sure? They'll need additional units for running the hourly Manchester-Leeds replacement for Northern services (which will probably free up enough units for Northern to run the Liverpool-Manchester via Warrington replacement), as well as for the half-hourly all day Newcastle service.

Indeed it looks as if the Northern 185s will have to return to TPE for the Manchester to Leeds stopper, it seems as if they are being replaced by Northern diverting 158s from other lines, which will need replacing.

Are any of the current CLC TPE services 6 car? Will the freed up Huddersfield DMUs will be enough to provide anymore than a 2 car service on the CLC?

If the TPE changes go ahead, Northern will have EMUs freed up from a reduction in services on Chat Moss, but will have to find extra DMUs from somewhere.

 

[pemma]

Are any of the current CLC TPE services 6 car? Will the freed up Huddersfield DMUs will be enough to provide anymore than a 2 car service on the CLC?

They'll have DMUs off both the Victoria-Huddersfield stopper and the Huddersfield-Leeds stopper. Combined that should allow for a 4 car service every hour between Liverpool and Manchester Airport, if they used all the units released on the CLC.

If the TPE changes go ahead, Northern will have EMUs freed up from a reduction in services on Chat Moss, but will have to find extra DMUs from somewhere.

The released EMUs could cover all services which start/terminate at Hazel Grove, as well as getting the pair of Pacers off the morning peak service from Crewe. That alongside more efficient diagramming could probably cover most of the Buxton/Mid-Cheshire line enhancements. Obviously EMUs can be used directly on the additional Macclesfield services. However, if Northern put EMUs on all Alderley Edge/Crewe/Macclesfield/Stoke/Hazel Grove services it would mean Buxton/Chester/Greenbank/New Mills Newton services would need to run through to Bolton to keep the required cross Manchester connections, which might then complicate the diagramming.

 

[lejog]

They'll have DMUs off both the Victoria-Huddersfield stopper and the Huddersfield-Leeds stopper. Combined that should allow for a 4 car service every hour between Liverpool and Manchester Airport, if they used all the units released on the CLC..

That doesn't work. Leeds to Huddersfield is 40mins, Hud to Manchester is 45mins, Liverpool-CLC-Airport will be 72 mins. Northern also still need to replace the 158s switched to Cumbria services. Which is why I'm awaiting the official announcements rather than indulging in forum speculation/gossip about the TPE North changes.

The released EMUs could cover all services which start/terminate at Hazel Grove, as well as getting the pair of Pacers off the morning peak service from Crewe. That alongside more efficient diagramming could probably cover most of the Buxton/Mid-Cheshire line enhancements. Obviously EMUs can be used directly on the additional Macclesfield services. However, if Northern put EMUs on all Alderley Edge/Crewe/Macclesfield/Stoke/Hazel Grove services it would mean Buxton/Chester/Greenbank/New Mills Newton services would need to run through to Bolton to keep the required cross Manchester connections, which might then complicate the diagramming

IIRC the second Stockport to Bolton service was also a 2019 franchise commitment.

 

[driver_m]

Indeed it looks as if the Northern 185s will have to return to TPE for the Manchester to Leeds stopper, it seems as if they are being replaced by Northern diverting 158s from other lines, which will need replacing.

Are any of the current CLC TPE services 6 car? Will the freed up Huddersfield DMUs will be enough to provide anymore than a 2 car service on the CLC?

If the TPE changes go ahead, Northern will have EMUs freed up from a reduction in services on Chat Moss, but will have to find extra DMUs from somewhere.

There are some 6 car services run over the CLC. Certainly at least one service runs each way as a 6.

 

[Chester1]

Is that figure of 16 DMU units just from the delayed Bolton electrification? How many 769s were due to be in service by May?

Just the delayed Bolton electrification if the current routes are maintained. Both current services have roughly a 2 hour turn around running doubled up units. 8 x 769s where meant be in service by May, roughly replacing another 16 DMUs. So they are really the equivalent to 32 x 150s short.

Most of the franchise commitments will have to be ignored until December. I know it would be unreliable but Buxton-Piccadilly-Bolton-Preston would be the most efficient use of DMUs. EMUs could then run 2tph serving the smaller stops between Hazel Grove and Piccadilly (terminating there). Blackpool must surely be served by EMUs to Liverpool and to Manchester via Golborne. Northern don't have DMUs to put more than the bare minimum on services through Bolton. It will be interesting to see what Northern come up with.

 

[Starmill]

There are a limited number of options for saving DMUs and they are all either very expensive (introduce a third Cumbrian Coast Loco Hauled diagram) or very unpalatable (cut to capacity between Bolton and Manchester, cuts to through services e.g. York - Blackpool at Preston).

I'm not sure they will agree it makes sense to introduce enhancements to services at Harrogate or Retford at these costs.

 

[Bletchleyite]

With all the spare EMUs available, I'd be in favour of a "no DMUs under the wires" rule even if it resulted in cuts for the time being. Until the new stock arrives, capacity is more important.

It'd obviously require franchise agreement variation, but one option would be to truncate all the Lakes and Furness services to Oxenholme and Lancaster for the time being, with a replacement service from Manchester terminating at Oxenholme operated using Class 319s via Wigan. Until Bolton is wired, I agree that something running from Manchester that presently terminates there running to Preston (only) is probably the most efficient option, plus it has the Southport and Clitheroe services.

Another option, now ATW don't use the Picc reversing siding, would be to remove one of the through DMUs to the Airport, turning it at Picc instead, and replace it with a Class 319 running from the terminal platforms.