Potential Bidders for the next Greater Western franchise

[SprinterMan]

This is also a very good point, though probably one that the DfT aren't too fussed about - I can't stand the enormous waste every time a TOC changes hands, we need a national rail identity!

What happened to NatEx being barred from bidding for any future franchises anyway, has the Government withdrawn that condition?

That was under a Labour government. The Conserveral Democratives revoked this ban (rather stupidly IMO).

 

[BestWestern]

That was under a Labour government. The Conserveral Democratives revoked this ban (rather stupidly IMO).

Hmm, agreed....

 

[Eagle]

I'm not sure we can count GC and Chiltern as Arriva/DB as they were both something else until recently.

Chiltern has been owned by DB since 2007! (Ditto their half of LO.)

 

[Schnellzug]

Does anyone want DB not to win the franchise for any other reason than they hate Voyagers

If they were to introduce ICE3s, i'd be quite Happy.

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So if, as we're told, the Government decides it purely on who makes the most promises or promises "best value" (i.e. who puts in the cheapest bid), and, ludicruously, previous performance is not taken into account, is there any realistic danger than National Excuse might actually get given it?

 

[jopsuk]

If they were to introduce ICE3s, i'd be quite Happy.

I think if they made all the route modifications to allow ICE3s to operate at full capability along the whole of the GW route- so, that's structure clearence, platforms lowered a bit, electrification and alterations to allow 300km/h, with no investment needed by UK government, then, yes, they would be very welcome.

It isn't going to happen.

 

[LexyBoy]

What could happen to the HSTs owned by First if they don't keep the franchise? Would they have to stay with the GW franchise or could First hire them to another operator (i.e. EC or EMT) or transfer them to Hull Trains?

How much of a problem would the loss of 5 (?) HST sets be - quite a lot I'd think?

 

[BestWestern]

What could happen to the HSTs owned by First if they don't keep the franchise? Would they have to stay with the GW franchise or could First hire them to another operator (i.e. EC or EMT) or transfer them to Hull Trains?

How much of a problem would the loss of 5 (?) HST sets be - quite a lot I'd think?

This shouldn't be a major issue, First would undoubtedly be 'encouraged' to lease the sets to whoever took over the franchise. That's probably the best option for First anyway, as they have no real need for them elsewhere and would still be getting a return on their assets by leasing them on. A refusal to do such would not go unnoticed by the DfT, and would likely hamper any future bids by the group.
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So if, as we're told, the Government decides it purely on who makes the most promises or promises "best value" (i.e. who puts in the cheapest bid), and, ludicruously, previous performance is not taken into account, is there any realistic danger than National Excuse might actually get given it?

I seem to recall NatEx were having some financial issues not so long ago, I would imagine that would count against them as a serious contender also.

 

[YorkshireBear]

I too would like first to retain it.

Well as others have said, keep the paint the same... saves money.
I dont think quitting early will hinder them. The dft gave them the option to and in a very uncertain economic climate who can blame them, better they give it in early than go bust and government have to take it on again.
I like what they've done since the woeful early days, they have really turned round the franchise with some real benefits being seen. Many of which are/have been discussed on here so wont go into detail.

NX no, just from what ive heard here.
Stagecoach i dont have a problem with, and maybe running SWT alongside FGW would be beneficial as they could kind of just form it into a super franchise kinda thing with better intergration.
Arriva, never been impressed by them since the old ATN days and there running of XC doesnt fill me with confidence either.
Renfe... rookie i think they should be given something like c2c or something simple rather than a very complex franchise as FGW.

 

[tbtc]

Given that any paint job will need repainting every few years, and that First have come up with a few different liveries over the years, I don't think that the saving (in First retaining the franchise, not needing to repaint trains) will make much difference.

The future of the five HSTs may be more significant, especially as First have other operations which could use them (London - Hull, Edinburgh - Aberdeen etc), so they wouldn't be sat "idle"...

 

[tirphil]

Arriva/DB - As much stick as they get on here, they are really not bad. Arriva Trains Wales are very good IMO, aside from an apparent refusal to fit Wifi. The 158 refurb they are doing is brilliant, and WAG1 is very nice.

The 158 refurb has not been trouble free. Electric sockets fitted for passenger use don't always work. PA often cuts out midway through announcements (or doesn't work at all) Cab to cab has had some issues with volume (very quiet), cab heaters often ineffective in heating the driving cab and don't work at all in a trailing cab (where the guard is based) Toilets are prone to getting blocked and over flowing. Some of the general standard of workmanship appears to be 'rushed.'

But the seating arrangements are very good so that all seats are by a window (important given some of the scenic routes ATW operate over) cycle stowage is good, interior decoration of the passenger saloons is bright and airy and areas for wheelchair/mobility scooter users has been enhanced.

I can't comment on Gerald as I've never been on it.

Back to the OP though. I'd leave the franchise with First. After a shaky start they've done well.

 

[lemonic]

I think if they made all the route modifications to allow ICE3s to operate at full capability along the whole of the GW route- so, that's structure clearence, platforms lowered a bit, electrification and alterations to allow 300km/h, with no investment needed by UK government, then, yes, they would be very welcome.

It isn't going to happen.

DB have ordered new ICx trains (similar to ICE) for Germany to replace intercity trains that run at perhaps up to 125/140mph. I wouldn't complain if a UK version of these was produced to replace HSTs on the soon-to-be electified GWML however unrealistic it may be!

 

[Zoe]

Bids are not blind

They are. None of the bidders know what the others are bidding.

 

[Pumbaa]

They are. None of the bidders know what the others are bidding.

And as proved time and time again, thats just the 'theory'. In practice, things are different.

 

[Zoe]

And as proved time and time again, thats just the 'theory'. In practice, things are different.

Well I did read back in 2005 that FGW resumed their station painting before it was announced they had won the franchise so something must have been going on. Not sure if it would only have been First that would have known they had won though or if the other bidders would known at that time.

 

[deltic]

They are. None of the bidders know what the others are bidding.

Zoe - that's correct - I was responding to a point that seem to suggest that those who evaluate the bids don't know who the bid is from which is not correct.

 

[WatcherZero]

Some of the bidders for the franchise have been complaining the Governments been understating how busy the stations they have to manage are because its only counting annual users with point to point tickets, not rovers.

 

[HH]

It's a shame that Abellio decided not to bid for it. I'm guessing that they saw First as being strong favourites to retain. But IMO it was a mistake, they should have left C2C alone, like First are, and had a go at this.

I know that Dean Finch will really want to win this. I wouldn't be surprised at all if NX put in the biggest Premium (just the opposite). Will the DfT stay true to their dictum of discounting undeliverable bids when they see a big number?
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Well I did read back in 2005 that FGW resumed their station painting before it was announced they had won the franchise so something must have been going on. Not sure if it would only have been First that would have known they had won though or if the other bidders would known at that time.

That doesn't mean a thing, because:

1. They have a commitment to paint the stations every 5 years anyway, so they would just have to pay dilapidations if they hadn't; and/or

2. They might have thought that painting a few stations (not a huge cost) would sent a very positive message to the DfT.

 

[tbtc]

It's a shame that Abellio decided not to bid for it. I'm guessing that they saw First as being strong favourites to retain. But IMO it was a mistake

Do we know that they didn't bid?

AFAIK all we know is that they didn't make the shortlist; presumably a few other companies submitted bids (which we don't know about)

 

[Zoe]

That doesn't mean a thing, because:

I wouldn't be completely sure of that as this was done very close to when the announcement was made.

1. They have a commitment to paint the stations every 5 years anyway, so they would just have to pay dilapidations if they hadn't; and/or

2. They might have thought that painting a few stations (not a huge cost) would sent a very positive message to the DfT.

Also I remember reading at the time work on HST power cars resumed before the official announcement was made, again this was just before the official announcement was made so the decision may well have been made by then. There was also a lot going round on the net saying that First had won Greater Western and also Thameslink/Great Northern which turned out to be exactly right. Stagecoach even more or less admitted defeat before First were announced as the winner. Something must have been known before the announcement was made.
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I was responding to a point that seem to suggest that those who evaluate the bids don't know who the bid is from which is not correct.

If they are sealed bids then the person that makes the decision should not know the identity of the bidder when the decision is made.

 

[HH]

Do we know that they didn't bid?

AFAIK all we know is that they didn't make the shortlist; presumably a few other companies submitted bids (which we don't know about)

It doesn't work like that. The shortlist comes after the AQ. Abellio decided not to bid (told this by a VERY senior Abellio person).

 

[Zoe]

I expect First to retain the franchise though. They put in quite a large bid for the franchise last time.

 

[deltic]

Do we know that they didn't bid?

AFAIK all we know is that they didn't make the shortlist; presumably a few other companies submitted bids (which we don't know about)

No-one has been shortlisted yet - this is the pre-qualification stage where potential bidders have to answer various esoteric questions - bidders are then shortlisted and between 3-5 will be invited to put in full bids

Full details can be found here http://www.dft.gov.uk/publications/great-western-franchise-2013/

 

[HH]

Also I remember reading at the time work on HST power cars resumed before the official announcement was made, again this was just before the official announcement was made so the decision may well have been made by then. There was also a lot going round on the net saying that First had won Greater Western and also Thameslink/Great Northern which turned out to be exactly right.

Well the winning bidder knows about a fortnight before it is made public. But you generally get a good idea weeks before that. But First was getting positive signals on all 3 bids at the time (including SE). I know because I was there. I've always thought that SE was changed because it was decided that we couldn't win all three. Up to the announcements on GW & GNTL the SE feedback was incredibly positive. Afterwards, it was all quiet on the SE front.

 

[deltic]

If they are sealed bids then the person that makes the decision should not know the identity of the bidder when the decision is made.

All the bids are open to those evaluating them - that is, they know exactly who is bidding what.

 

[Zoe]

I've always thought that SE was changed because it was decided that we couldn't win all three. Up to the announcements on GW & GNTL the SE feedback was incredibly positive. Afterwards, it was all quiet on the SE front.

I seem to remember quite a few people expecting GNER to win the SouthEastern franchise.
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All the bids are open to those evaluating them - that is, they know exactly who is bidding what.

This is what you are saying but I have not seen any evidence of this and you are contradicting quite a few posts people have made on the issue both here and elsewhere.

 

[HH]

I expect First to retain the franchise though. They put in quite a large bid for the franchise last time.

Yes, but. The new Franchises have a completely different approach to risk. First can't do what Dean Finch did last time, and put in a heavy revenue line knowing that 80% of it would be covered by the DfT. Now only shortfalls caused by dips in GDP will be covered. Equally there aren't as many options to get out of Franchises early.

IMO bids this time round will be much closer to reality.

 

[Zoe]

Up to the announcements on GW & GNTL the SE feedback was incredibly positive. Afterwards, it was all quiet on the SE front.

The Integreated Kent Franchise was awarded before the other franchises though.

 

[HH]

I seem to remember quite a few people expecting GNER to win the SouthEastern franchise.

People can expect what they like. I've spoken to SET Directors, and they have said that First were head and shoulders above other bidders in regard to their interactions with SET.

 

[Zoe]

IMO bids this time round will be much closer to reality.

Although First do own five trains that none of the other bidders do.
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People can expect what they like. I've spoken to SET Directors, and they have said that First were head and shoulders above other bidders in regard to their interactions with SET.

But as the Integrated Kent franchise was awarded earlier in the year it can't have been the result of the announcement to award the other two to First that prevented First getting it.

 

[deltic]

I seem to remember quite a few people expecting GNER to win the SouthEastern franchise.
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This is what you are saying but I have not seen any evidence of this and you are contradicting quite a few posts people have made on the issue both here and elsewhere.

having been involved in the evaluation process I can assure you the evaluators know every single bidders' bid