Russia invades Ukraine

[Typhoon]

A good thing for the government to do right now is to sack Patel to show that there is zero tolerance of those who apparently want to limit protest.

Provided she isn't replaced by someone as bad?

(I would also suggest is that what Johnson needs right now is friends, not enemies - and Patel is potentially a Cummings class of enemy).

 

[GS250]

Don't forget how many 'experts' we have had over the past two years claiming what nightmare was going to happen with Covid or what could happen, and have been proved to be wrong. It was only in December that there was talk of "mega waves" of it over overwhelming hospitals and so on. A lot of opinions thrown out in the heat of the moment just don't seem to have much material value.

In that sense it was much better in 1979 when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan - all we had to go on was a sober 10 minute news item (if that) telling us that, well, there was a war on but we didn't know much more. 'Experts' weren't brought out every day to give their opinions to the BBC. The Soviet Head of State, Leonid Brezhnev, was in dreadful physical and mental shape, but we didn't have the media hanging on his every statement, partly because in his shape he was barely seen publicly and had speaking problems.

Agreed. These 'experts' are all individuals who on paper we should be able to trust. However, most have their own agenda's thus cannot always be relied on for an informed opinion.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

A good thing for the government to do right now is to sack Patel to show that there is zero tolerance of those who apparently want to limit protest.

Yeah - coz of course, the absolute best thing to do in the middle of this kind of crisis is always to start sacking your own minsters because they are doing things that the opposition parties disagree with!

 

[RichJF]

Turns out it was Liz Truss' possible inflammatory comments about UK nationals heading to Ukraine that led Putin to order the "special alert" combat status.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/putin-ukraine-russia-truss-nuclear-b2024839.html

 

[yorksrob]

Turns out it was Liz Truss' possible inflammatory comments about UK nationals heading to Ukraine that led Putin to order the "special alert" combat status.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/putin-ukraine-russia-truss-nuclear-b2024839.html

Sounds like more Kremlin flannel to me.

 

[GWRtom]

Russian MLRS barrage on the center of Kharkiv in the last hour.

Reportedly dozens of civillian casualties.

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1498264116871507971

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Turns out it was Liz Truss' possible inflammatory comments about UK nationals heading to Ukraine that led Putin to order the "special alert" combat status.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/putin-ukraine-russia-truss-nuclear-b2024839.html

Errr... that's not what the article says. The article states:

It appears that Mr Peskov may have been referring to comments in a Sunday morning TV interview, in which Ms Truss said that if Putin was not stopped in Ukraine it could lead to Nato being dragged into a wider conflict.

“If we don’t stop Putin in Ukraine we are going to see others under threat – the Baltics, PolanMoldova, and it could end up in a conflict with Nato,” said the foreign secretary on Sunday.

“We do not want to go there. That is why it is so important we make the sacrifices now.”

So it's clearly referring to different comments by Liz Truss, which seem to refer to us helping Ukraine in the way we're currently doing, not to UK nationals going there.

(Either way, I'd agree with @yorksrob. It's more likely to just be Putin looking for any excuse to issue more threats.)

 

[AlterEgo]

Turns out it was Liz Truss' possible inflammatory comments about UK nationals heading to Ukraine that led Putin to order the "special alert" combat status.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/putin-ukraine-russia-truss-nuclear-b2024839.html

Britain being absolutely massive here and triggering a nuclear alert, can't wait for follow up posts where we find out we are tiny and Putin doesn't think about us at all.

 

[brad465]

Yeah - coz of course, the absolute best thing to do in the middle of this kind of crisis is always to start sacking your own minsters because they are doing things that the opposition parties disagree with!

While not entirely like for like, Chamberlain stepped down in 1940, and one of the things that tipped it was opposition leader Clement Atlee refusing to be a part of a Government of National Unity/all party coalition with him in charge, but open to doing so with an alternative PM.

 

[DustyBin]

A sobering read on a BBC article, for anyone that wants an excuse for an early Whiskey!

Full article can be found here;

Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button?

"Would never do" isn't a phrase that applies to Vladimir Putin, the BBC's Steve Rosenberg believes.

www.bbc.co.uk

Essentially, the point raised suggests that if Russia can't have what it wants, then no one can. A planet without Russia is not worth having!

A sobering thought indeed, however it’s the thoughts of a single person. For balance, I wasn’t really surprised when Putin annexed Crimea etc. and I certainly wasn’t surprised when he attacked Ukraine; he couldn’t have made it more obvious that he was going to do so.

I don’t however think he wants to take on NATO and/or a nuclear conflict as he can’t win either. And I’m not entirely convinced that he’s a total mad man either. I think what has happened is he miscalculated Ukraine’s willingness and ability to fight and the world’s (not just the West’s) response so is now trying to rescue his own situation by doing what he does best (and has worked in the past); threaten other countries.

@Scotrail314209 just to add to the discussion yesterday about Putin and his suggested nuclear alert. These are the words of our Defence Secretary in reaction to that statement:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60553356

Yes my (non-expert) take on his statement is that he said a lot whilst saying very little. We could easily describe the readiness of our own deterrent in rather scary terms but in reality nothing would have changed. I’m not saying he won’t have done anything, but this could be as simple as calling all personnel back from leave for example. There are no quivering fingers over big red buttons though.

Putin has the Western population rattled. For him that's job done.

Exactly, and I’ll admit to being rattled initially under the circumstances, but I don’t think he’s going to break international unity or resolve (indeed he appears to be strengthening both!).

Yes. But he did not seem to go for shock and awe. I believe he seriously underestimated the Ukrainians' resolve to stay and fight. Their holding of the line and buying time will prove invaluable in the future and will no doubt be seen as heroic. It is the right thing to do and yah boo sucks to anyone who can't understand the will of military aged men to stay and fight in their home country rather than running away. People have to stand for something and if you don't stand for your home you are nothing.

I can’t make my mind up whether what we saw was Russia’s version of shock and awe, or whether he went in soft. I suspect the truth is somewhere in between to be honest. How many “smart” weapons such as cruise missiles do they have? And how many can they afford to use in one go? I’m not aware of any TU-95s being deployed since the initial attack so it may be that they simply can’t arm them (I don’t believe they can drop “dumb” bombs anymore). Total speculation but the Russian strategy appears very strange on the face of it.

 

[brad465]

I would encourage anyone who hasn't yet to read Carole Cadwalladr's thread here about the "first Great Information war":

https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1498056686548013062

Ok. Deep breath. I think we may look back on this as the first Great Information War. Except we're already 8 years in. The first Great Information War began in 2014. The invasion of Ukraine is the latest front. And the idea it doesn't already involve us is fiction, a lie. 1/

Continued...

 

[DarloRich]

I have been spending some time look at various maps and graphics about the invasion of Ukraine and while progress has been slower than Moscow clearly wants there is progress despite the Ukrainians putting up a serious fight. I am not an expert on military strategy or tactics but can read a map and things don't look good. It looks like Russia is trying to take key cities and join up thier areas of captured land, particularly between Crimea and the separatist regions. They also look like they are trying to create "pockets" trapping large numbers of Ukrainian fighters.

The capital is at risk of encirclement and if that happens the Russians will be able to pick and chose thier attacks and/or starve out the defenders. Obviously the focus of the media is on Kyiv but the Russians are making slow progress in the South and the East and are close to capturing several large cities and cutting Ukraine off from several of their sea ports. Although it seems an amphibious attack on Odessa was beaten off.

I wonder if Belorussian forces will attack into western Ukraine as this area does not seem to have been attacked as yet. Perhaps the plan is to cut the country in half along the Dnieper. Whatever, I suspect the Russians thought things would move much quicker!

EDIT - the Russians also seem to be bringing up more forces and firing more unguided artillery and rockets into civilian areas. Perhaps that is an acknowledgement that things haven't gone to plan!

 

[GS250]

Britain being absolutely massive here and triggering a nuclear alert, can't wait for follow up posts where we find out we are tiny and Putin doesn't think about us at all.

So sending a few hundred mercenaries (who have probably spent the last few years wielding pressure hoses washing cars in West London) has triggered a 'nuclear level' response' from the Kremlin? Didn't realise our Dear Putin was so easily threatened.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I can’t make my mind up whether what we saw was Russia’s version of shock and awe, or whether he went in soft. I suspect the truth is somewhere in between to be honest. How many “smart” weapons such as cruise missiles do they have? And how many can they afford to use in one go? I’m not aware of any TU-95s being deployed since the initial attack so it may be that they simply can’t arm them (I don’t believe they can drop “dumb” bombs anymore). Total speculation but the Russian strategy appears very strange on the face of it.

Yeah, we can only speculate. I've also been puzzling about what they are doing. The best guess I can come up with is that, maybe at the start, the Russians fell victim to their own propaganda, and went in believing that they only needed a small force because the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms and readily topple their supposedly drunken, drug-ridden, Nazi, Government. And now the Russians have discovered that was a fantasy, they're stuck with not having arranged the logistics to send in many more troops. There are also some reports that the Ukrainians have been cunning and targeted Russian logistics behind the main front too - if those reports are true, that may have helped a lot.

I also wonder whether Russian military equipment is possibly in much worse condition than we imagined (wouldn't be surprising, given how corrupt Russia is), and the stuff they've sent in is in fact the only stuff that is really in fight-worthy condition, with the remainder being left behind to threaten but they don't want to risk using it in actual battles.

That's all total speculation and I could be totally wrong, but it's my best guess so far.

 

[the sniper]

I can’t make my mind up whether what we saw was Russia’s version of shock and awe, or whether he went in soft. I suspect the truth is somewhere in between to be honest. How many “smart” weapons such as cruise missiles do they have? And how many can they afford to use in one go? I’m not aware of any TU-95s being deployed since the initial attack so it may be that they simply can’t arm them (I don’t believe they can drop “dumb” bombs anymore). Total speculation but the Russian strategy appears very strange on the face of it.

I think they went in soft, but it didn't work as expected/desired. Going hard will still be a hard sell at home, as there hasn't really been an escalation by the Ukrainians, other than them making the Russia forces look silly. Now the Russians seem to have escalated in Kharkiv. How the images of dead Ukrainian civilians in the streets amongst Commie blocks will go down (online) in Russia, seeing people who look like them in neighbourhoods like theirs, might dictate how much Putin can get away with. I'm not sure in this day and age how much Putin will be able to control the narrative. He can only really sell increased Western involvement and the threat it'd cause to the motherland...

 

[Ediswan]

It looks like Russia is trying to take key cities and join up thier areas of captured land

It is worth noting that while the maps appear to show a solid block of land under Russian control to the north of Kyiv, it is actually two contiguous but unconnected blocks. Ukraine has blown the bridge on the P-69 across the Dnieper. They have also blown a second bridge across a parallel waterway I can't find a name for. https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=15/50.5870/30.5236

 

[DarloRich]

Yeah, we can only speculate. I've also been puzzling about what they are doing. The best guess I can come up with is that, maybe at the start, the Russians fell victim to their own propaganda, and went in believing that they only needed a small force because the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms and readily topple their supposedly drunken, drug-ridden, Nazi, Government. And now the Russians have discovered that was a fantasy, they're stuck with not having arranged the logistics to send in many more troops. There are also some reports that the Ukrainians have been cunning and targeted Russian logistics behind the main front too - if those reports are true, that may have helped a lot.

I also wonder whether Russian military equipment is possibly in much worse condition than we imagined (wouldn't be surprising, given how corrupt Russia is), and the stuff they've sent in is in fact the only stuff that is really in fight-worthy condition, with the remainder being left behind to threaten but they don't want to risk using it in actual battles.

That's all total speculation and I could be totally wrong, but it's my best guess so far.

I think it is a combination of all of those things and poor training and indoctrination/explanation to the squaddies about why they are there and what they are doing.

Logistics has been a big problem but I don't know if that is because the Russians didn't plan properly or the Ukrainians have been attacking thier supplies or both.

I think they went in soft, but it didn't work as expected/desired.

Agreed. I think they thought the same as another despotic European bloke: "You only have to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down"

It is worth noting that while the maps appear to show a solid block of land under Russian control to the north of Kyiv, it is actually two contiguous but unconnected blocks. Ukraine has blown the bridge on the P-69 across the Dnieper. They have also blown a second bridge across a parallel waterway I can't find a name for. https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=15/50.5870/30.5236

Agreed - I don't take the charts as "gospel" but they do show directions of travel

 

[Ediswan]

Logistics has been a big problem but I don't know if that is because the Russians didn't plan properly or the Ukrainians have been attacking thier supplies or both.

That is a surprise. About the only thing I know aboout army tactics is that you need to keep the supplies flowing.

 

[DarloRich]

That is a surprise. About the only thing I know aboout army tactics is that you need to keep the supplies flowing.

agreed - but if you plan for a 3 day campaign................................

 

[DustyBin]

Yeah, we can only speculate. I've also been puzzling about what they are doing. The best guess I can come up with is that, maybe at the start, the Russians fell victim to their own propaganda, and went in believing that they only needed a small force because the Ukrainians would welcome them with open arms and readily topple their supposedly drunken, drug-ridden, Nazi, Government. And now the Russians have discovered that was a fantasy, they're stuck with not having arranged the logistics to send in many more troops. There are also some reports that the Ukrainians have been cunning and targeted Russian logistics behind the main front too - if those reports are true, that may have helped a lot.

I also wonder whether Russian military equipment is possibly in much worse condition than we imagined (wouldn't be surprising, given how corrupt Russia is), and the stuff they've sent in is in fact the only stuff that is really in fight-worthy condition, with the remainder being left behind to threaten but they don't want to risk using it in actual battles.

That's all total speculation and I could be totally wrong, but it's my best guess so far.

You could be absolutely right I think. Re targeting logistics (and armoured for the matter) columns behind the front lines that certainly appears to be the case. I’ve seen videos of absolutely obliterated Russian columns containing fuel tankers as well as tanks and various other vehicles (some of which weren’t even recognisable). What inflicted such carnage is probably open to speculation. There’s also footage from a Turkish made TB2 drone where it flies straight over a pair of Buk launchers (which seems rather ironic!) and blows them to smithereens. I think what we’re seeing is a large but dated and poorly organised military being thoroughly exposed against Western high-tech weaponry. It may not be enough to stop the Russians taking Kyiv but I think they’ve been given more than just a bloody nose at this point.

 

[AlterEgo]

So sending a few hundred mercenaries (who have probably spent the last few years wielding pressure hoses washing cars in West London) has triggered a 'nuclear level' response' from the Kremlin? Didn't realise our Dear Putin was so easily threatened.

Of course it’s just Russian propaganda and anyone repeating or amplifying it is merely being a useful fool for the Kremlin.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I hear the Russians are still supplying oil and gas to the EU.

Correct gas pipelines from Russia delivering there daily contracted gas volumes to EU countries. Electricity grid still up and according to electricity map some Ukraine interconnectors with neighbouring countries operating some in export mode!!

Russia could easily have destroyed critical infrastructure but it hasn't good have turned off gas but it hasn't. Reason is they want the country intact just run someone of their choosing who will look to them for security not NATO. West needs to tread carefully here not to provoke him into a sod it attitude and go large like a spoilt child just to make a point now. They should be deploying every covert trick they have to foment a civil uprising in Russia against what is happening as in the long run the West needs Russia's oil and gas its decades away from breaking that dependency.

 

[d9009alycidon]

Meanwhile on a lighter note...

 

[Giugiaro]

I don’t however think he wants to take on NATO and/or a nuclear conflict as he can’t win either.

I'm led to believe that, in a nuclear conflict, NO ONE wins?

They should be deploying every covert trick they have to foment a civil uprising in Russia against what is happening as in the long run the West needs Russia's oil and gas its decades away from breaking that dependency.

True, but I'd rather say that in the long run the West needs to have a cooperating relationship with a democratic Russia, as we'll all be better off this way.
Had Russia taken a different path than the one it took with Putin, maybe we wouldn't be having Russians and Ukrainians killing each other for the amusement of one tyrant and his possy.

Who knows, maybe both Ukraine and Russia might've been EU member states by this point. Can't say the same about the UK though...

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

I’ll confess to having permanent nausea and sleepless nights over morbid fears about nuclear weapons.

But what I really hope the President understands is that surely using them is pointless. He is most likely to die if he drops one on anywhere with them, because the response will be equally devastating, and if he’s been killed by another nuclear in response, he can’t win his war.

 

[GS250]

They could be used in Ukraine but for what purpose? They are really designed to overcome a tactical problem or stalemate on the battle field. ( The Russian ones are/were designed to punch a hole in cold war NATO lines after their advance had been checked by NATO forces in Germany and let their armoured forces pour through into Western Europe. The NATO ones are/were designed to stop that) While Ukraine are putting up a fight and making the Russians pay for their actions they are not creating a stalemate. Russian forces are advancing in many parts of the country and the capital is in danger of being surrounded. They are moving slower than I think they expected but they are moving. That isn't really the conditions required for tactical nuclear weapons.

Are we talking about the much feared 'Neutron Bomb'? Ie the very low yield but radioactively lethal (if very short term) device designed to wipe out armoured divisions as opposed to buildings? I believe the West stood theirs down years ago but not sure about Russia?

 

[DustyBin]

I'm led to believe that, in a nuclear conflict, NO ONE wins?

Correct, it’s a total lose-lose for the whole planet. I’m pretty certain that even if MAD (mutually assured destruction) didn’t result, and one side didn’t respond for some reason, the aggressor would have effectively committed suicide if it was a full scale attack (I may be wrong there but the earth certainly wouldn’t be a pleasant place to live). All hypothetical though, I don’t think we need to worry too much, as unsettling as the rhetoric has been.

True, but I'd rather say that in the long run the West needs to have a cooperating relationship with a democratic Russia, as we'll all be better off this way.
Had Russia taken a different path than the one it took with Putin, maybe we wouldn't be having Russians and Ukrainians killing each other for the amusement of one tyrant and his possy.

Who knows, maybe both Ukraine and Russia might've been EU member states by this point. Can't say the same about the UK though...

The effective ousting of Gorbachev was a tragedy IMO. He wasn’t perfect but things have deteriorated infinitely since.

 

[najaB]

Are we talking about the much feared 'Neutron Bomb'? Ie the very low yield but radioactively lethal (if very short term) device designed to wipe out armoured divisions as opposed to buildings? I believe the West stood theirs down years ago but not sure about Russia?

I'm lead to believe that neither side actually fielded such a weapon.

Edit: I was partially correct. They were fielded but primarily in the ABM role - the idea being that the high neutron flux would disable incoming warheads.

 

[DarloRich]

Are we talking about the much feared 'Neutron Bomb'? Ie the very low yield but radioactively lethal (if very short term) device designed to wipe out armoured divisions as opposed to buildings? I believe the West stood theirs down years ago but not sure about Russia?

I don't know and I don't want to find out!

(@DarloRich has repeatedly done this better than I could ever hope to in his posts here).

Very kind - it came from talking, by chance, to my 15 year old nephew and a couple of his mates. They were really concerned by the whole thing and couldn't really understand what was happening and what it all meant. They were watching the news and trying to process it all as they haven't really seen the like before.

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

Further to talk of Russian logistical problems another issue is self sabotage. Evidently there are at least some Russian soldiers not interested in fighting: I have seen suggestions of fuel being syphoned off and then men going AWOL to try and sell it, others of men simply dumping a certain amount of fuel to prevent them advancing far enough to actually contact Ukrainian forces.

Sadly I suspect this will eventually lead to Russian senior commanders identifying which units they can rely on and use only those to continue their campaign. I tend to think that the more loyal units will be those with the most sophisticated/powerful weaponry. After what happened in Chechnya and Syria this does not bode well for Ukraine's large cities.