krus_aragon
Established Member
How about "regrouped"? Or "been resurrected"?and the Conservatives may have reuplifted (is that a word?!).
How about "regrouped"? Or "been resurrected"?and the Conservatives may have reuplifted (is that a word?!).
Funny you should mention that because I voted, in 2015, Tory in order NOT to have a Lab/SNP coalition.I think the very mention of such a coalition involving SNP would put many people off. Certainly for me it’s one reason I would vote Conservative in a general election, even if at present I’m not particularly pleased with their performance. The DUP is an influence in our politics I find slightly distasteful, but if they give me a slight sore throat then the prospect of SNP makes me throw up violently.
I don’t think such results would happen in a general election, especially after a campaign where (hopefully) domestic issues would be discussed. Never underestimate the willingness of people to alter their votes if they think *their* personal tax bill might increase. I do think we would likely see a nomansland result though, with no clear endorsement for any party.
It’s all a little academic as a lot may change between now and then. The Conservatives definitely will not want to call an election with the polls as they are, meanwhile Corbyn has the dilemma of whether to continue to push for a general election as a shot to nothing but with poor opinion poll figures, or wait in the hope that victory will come in 2022 albeit with the possibility that age might not be on his side and the Conservatives may have reuplifted (is that a word?!).
I think the very mention of such a coalition involving SNP would put many people off. Certainly for me it’s one reason I would vote Conservative in a general election, even if at present I’m not particularly pleased with their performance. The DUP is an influence in our politics I find slightly distasteful, but if they give me a slight sore throat then the prospect of SNP makes me throw up violently.
I would have thought the DUP would WANT a hard Ireland border to distance themselves further from Dublin and more alligned to the UK, however that clearly isn't the case they, like everyone else want it kept totally open; yet the hard Brexit they want could well mean that hard border being installed. I don't understand their position at all.I wonder why. The DUP has a history of intransigence, is close to people prepared to use violence to get what they want and is now a key influence standing in the way of a reasonably sensible Brexit. The SNP has a much cleaner history. It is clear about what it wants, which you and I might not agree about, but why are they vomit-worthy?
The people of Northern Ireland benefit from a frictionless border with the Republic. If they lose it due to Brexit then more people will favour uniting with the Republic so as to regain that freedom. The Good Friday agreement obliges the government to hold a referendum in the North on uniting Ireland if there is evidence that a majority support it. So the DUP's actions could lead them to exactly the outcome they want least.I would have thought the DUP would WANT a hard Ireland border to distance themselves further from Dublin and more alligned to the UK, however that clearly isn't the case they, like everyone else want it kept totally open; yet the hard Brexit they want could well mean that hard border being installed. I don't understand their position at all.
I would have thought the DUP would WANT a hard Ireland border to distance themselves further from Dublin and more alligned to the UK, however that clearly isn't the case they, like everyone else want it kept totally open; yet the hard Brexit they want could well mean that hard border being installed. I don't understand their position at all.
I don't think it has to. For most of the time the Northern Ireland parties are an irrelevance, being no more than nuisance value at best (especially since a significant number never attend) but once in a generation they actually have some power so can make demands that can never be met. Therefore the governing party then has to offer more and more inducements to compensate NI parties because their basic demands are impossible to meet. They've probably got less than they would like because government is almost stagnant at present and the Assembly is in abeyance.I wonder if the DUP position is essentially one of cake and eat it too, namely they don’t want to be part of the EU, do want to be part of the U.K., and don’t want a hard border. I agree their position doesn’t really add up.
I doubt there'd be a majority, but who'd be in a "balance of power" situation depends on the Parliamentary arithmetic when all the votes come in.Worryingly, if an election was called this year, would anyone get a majority or would certain NI politicians be able to again make unachievable demands?
That'd tot-up to a CON-DUP-BRX total of 310, and a LAB-SNP-LIB-PC-GRN-CNG total of 330, but a six-way coalition would be very wobbly indeed.CON 200
LAB 160
LIB 100
BRX 100
SNP 40
CNG 20
DUP 10
S-F 10
P-C 5
GRN 5
I doubt there'd be a majority, but who'd be in a "balance of power" situation depends on the Parliamentary arithmetic when all the votes come in.
In 2017, the Conservative party were close enough to the winning line that it'd require practically every other party combined to outnumber them, but they were also short enough that (with Labour, the SNP and Liberal Democrats all slamming the door on the Conservatives well before the votes were counted) the only party large enough to help the Conservatives was the DUP.
If, in the next election, the big parties aren't as large (which is what current polling suggests) and there are more "medium" size parties, then that'll mean there will be more possible permutations. But given the polarising issue at hand, I suspect that it'd still be a battle to find a majority coalition, as groups will stick to one side of the argument or the other.
Say we landed with an arbitrary result of:
That'd tot-up to a CON-DUP-BRX total of 310, and a LAB-SNP-LIB-PC-GRN-CNG total of 330, but a six-way coalition would be very wobbly indeed.
Agreed, given Westminster's use of the FPTP system. But I'll be astounded if a general election held within the next few years gives a parliamentary majority to any single party.So in essence I think it's almost impossible to say what a general election result might look like, either now or a year or two down the line.
So the DUP's intransigence means that the most likely outcome of them wanting Brexit is a united Ireland in order to keep the border open, which is the complete opposite of what they want, to be part of the UK.
How many walls are there left to bang our heads on??
You realise the reason Scotland can provide free education and such is because they get a lot of money from England?these days I'm absolutely gagging for the SNP to take over the flippin' country and run it properly!
Could you point me in the direction of that poll?Of course the Johnson method of saving the Tory party is to deliver Brexit in whatever form by 31 October, something the polls clearly indicate no longer has majority support (by a 10% margin in the latest poll).
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/Could you point me in the direction of that poll?
Thanks.https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/
I think another one may have appeared since I last looked, as the latest margin is 8% but the previous one was 12%, excluding the don't knows in both cases.
Maybe not, but it certainly provides the most compelling anti-drugs message of a generationI don’t think Michael Gove taking cocaine at several “social events” during his time as a Daily Mail journalist will help with his leadership bid somehow...
Maybe not, but it certainly provides the most compelling anti-drugs message of a generation
Maybe not, but it certainly provides the most compelling anti-drugs message of a generation
They're all leaping on the bandwagon now. Leadsom apparently smoked weed but didn't suffer from any long term insightAssuming none of the other candidates indulged, they aren't a great argument for abstension either.
I don’t think Michael Gove taking cocaine at several “social events” during his time as a Daily Mail journalist will help with his leadership bid somehow...
To be fair it wasn't a particularly strong case - it was a waste of a bunch of money which almost inevitably gave him the chance to appear vindicated in court, even though they basically vindicated him of nothing. As I understand the reasoning that has been released, it was that he may very well have lied, and he was in public office at the time, but since he did so as part of a campaign it was by definition not part of his public office.The case against Boris Johnson has been thrown out https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48554853
Though at this stage we don’t know what the grounds for dismissing it were.
It does seem to be somewhat of a trend for people to try and get political decisions overturned through the courts, which seems a dangerous path to go down to me.
so which one of them is going to actually admit to ," yes I took so much **** that they'd have to bury me in a coffin with a child-proof lid!"They're all leaping on the bandwagon now. Leadsom apparently smoked weed but didn't suffer from any long term insight
I'm not sure anybody's told Gove that that bus he kept seeing in the referendum campaign was lying. He always made George Osborne look like an intellectual colossus, which is fairly impressive when you think about it.In other news, I see Gove is on the you'll-get-taxed-less-under-me bandwagon . How is the NHS and other public services going to be funded then, you twit ?