Trump vs Kim-Jong Un: War or Bluster?

[Busaholic]

I'm not sure what China would do. They've gone from being staunch NK defenders to being, at least publicly, on board with everyone else in the most recent sanctions. Would they get involved in a war? I really don't know. It would be one hell of a confrontation, China vs the USA. I like to think it wouldn't happen - we're talking about two countries that are not considered "rogue" so they *should* be able to control themselves.

At the age of 69, I might consider joining CND, not that that would make any difference.

 

[Calthrop]

A bit of facetiousness and frivolity in a tense situation: on my computer screen at any rate, there keeps popping up today an ad concerning "children's social work roles" for Kent County Council -- slogan, "Kent listens". The pictorial part of the ad features a cute East Asian-looking kid -- slightly resembling in my eyes anyway, North Korea's Kim -- playing a mouth-organ: with the caption, "We're all ears". Topical, or what?

 

[cjp]

So, rhetoric is heightening at quite a pace, as Trump and Kim-Jong Un escalate tensions.

Nobody seems unduly worried at the moment, but should we be. Two stupid, volatile and dangerous men winding each other up.

Hope I am wrong, but I am expecting a surprise attack by America.

To be honest without the publicity given to Trumps pronouncements by the media seeking attention and sales or audience numbers the world would be more at ease.

Short of assassination there is nothing we in the UK can do about this wealthy person the voters of the United States America chose to be their leader. (Not that the voters in the United States of America had much by way of a worthwhile alternative.)

If a nuclear war is going to come about due to these people there is nothing you or I can do about it so ignore it, enjoy life and live it to the full as today may be your last day.

 

[fowler9]

It is a really bizarre situation. North Korea can't do much to anyone else apart from South Korea and maybe Japan (And Guam). No one can do anything to them without the serious risk of them making a serious mess of South Korea.

 

[jon0844]

After Trump spoke I saw stories about North Korea was more advanced with its missiles than first thought, but it simply reminds me of when Saddam wanted everyone to think he had loads of weapons, but didn't.

That of course helped make us believe he had all those WMDs. Now North Korea is bragging, it does make for a dangerous situation.

One hopes behind the scenes the important people know what's what. Each side now keen to save face and look strong. Not that I think Trump could ever look strong.

 

[TheEdge]

I think a lot of posters are underestimating the power of the military of North Korea. It has a huge standing army, and frankly it seems like most of the populous would fight and count towards that total.

Their equipment may not be advanced but I'm sure you wouldn't notice the difference between a 155mm RAP shell from a US M109 and a 170mm RAP shell from a Koksan when it landed on you. NK has the equipment set up ready to bombard Seoul from within NK, shooting down an ICBM is one thing, shooting down conventional artillery shells and unguided rockets is another. If there was a war between North Korea and US, South Korea and maybe Japan I don't doubt the US side would win but it would be a bloody war.

And as said China remains the x factor in the whole affair. In the last few years there seems to have been a deterioration in tolerance with North Korea, from most recently allowing UN resolutions to pass non-vetoed down to minor things like allowing public criticism of their "ally" to get through the Great Firewall. Have they deteriorated so badly that China would stand by and allow (or even support) military action against North Korea? Thats the big question.

 

[TheNewNo2]

Say what you like about North Korea, but at least they have a leader who values science, albeit to bad ends.

If a war starts, the North Korean tactic is to make South Korea and Japan bloodied as much as possible. War with America they know would be the end, I don't think they would attack first unless they thought they were about to be invaded or assassinated. With Trump of course, he probably would do that.

But I'm sure the North Koreans won't attack. After all, Mike Pence went to the DMZ and stood outside so everyone could see his resolve!

 

[dgl]

The big question also is, would the army of NK want to fight? They may be brainwashed to sole extent but I reckon a lot of them will see it as an easy way out.

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[61653 HTAFC]

The big question also is, would the army of NK want to fight? They may be brainwashed to sole extent but I reckon a lot of them will see it as an easy way out.

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True, an army of malnourished conscripts will likely be less dependable than an army of reasonably well trained and well paid volunteers. In theory anyway...

 

[Barn]

Say what you like about North Korea, but at least they have a leader who values science, albeit to bad ends.

If only he directed his scientists to research basic mid-20th century farming techniques, he might actually have a properly nourished population. Instead he's turning to something like what Winston Churchill called the 'lights of perverted science'.

 

[TheEdge]

True, an army of malnourished conscripts will likely be less dependable than an army of reasonably well trained and well paid volunteers. In theory anyway...

But it depends about the numbers. The Falklands is oft quoted as a good example of how a small, well trained professional army can defeat a larger conscription army against the odds. But then North Korea has a huge numerical advantage over the US (disregarding the South Koreans), so that could help overcome the issues.

 

[cf111]

I wouldn't be too worried about North Korea's nuclear capability, they might have a warhead but I wouldn't trust one of their rockets to get it anywhere near the US. The main concern I would have is that Seoul is about 30km from the border and the North Koreans have an awful lot of conventional artillery parked there.

 

[Darandio]

I wouldn't be too worried about North Korea's nuclear capability, they might have a warhead but I wouldn't trust one of their rockets to get it anywhere near the US. The main concern I would have is that Seoul is about 30km from the border and the North Koreans have an awful lot of conventional artillery parked there.

I wouldn't trust any of their rockets to get anywhere near where they are fired at, not at distance anyway.

The worry would be that they'll fire the four missiles in the waters around 20km or so off Guam, but their targeting system is so poor that they will accidentally hit!

 

[fowler9]

I wouldn't trust any of their rockets to get anywhere near where they are fired at, not at distance anyway.

The worry would be that they'll fire the four missiles in the waters around 20km or so off Guam, but their targeting system is so poor that they will accidentally hit!

As a slight aside the Daily Mail today had a map of Guam showing Anderson Air Force Base as being at the naval station and the naval station as being at Anderson Air Force Base.

Anyway, that aside if anything happens to North Korea unless America gets the entire leadership I can't see anything happening other than Seoul getting it right in the face and then a massive escalation. The people of North Korea may be impoverished, starving and demotivated but they know that if any one of them speaks out it could result in their entire extended family being killed.

 

[DarloRich]

I always thought the 4th horseman of the apocalypse was a pale figure riding an ashen horse. Who knew he would be a tango coloured excreata gibbon riding a massive bomb like Slim Pickens. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious

 

[Butts]

The best solution is to engineer a coup to get rid of Jong-Un or assassinate him.

Where are the CIA with their "exploding cigars" when you need them

Below him I'm sue there are more sensible potential leaders.

Why not get China to occupy the place as an interim measure after Jong-Un is gone ?

 

[DarloRich]

i wonder if anyone has asked President Putin what to do...................

 

[43021HST]

The best solution is to engineer a coup to get rid of Jong-Un or assassinate him.

Where are the CIA with their "exploding cigars" when you need them

Below him I'm sue there are more sensible potential leaders.

Why not get China to occupy the place as an interim measure after Jong-Un is gone ?

Does surprise me that they haven't tried something like a coup, but then again I think it's more difficult for the US to infiltrate the top echelons of the NK army unlike in Latin America.

I think the CIA has probably tried multiple times to assassinate, Kim could just be wise to it, like Castro was.

 

[Butts]

Does surprise me that they haven't tried something like a coup, but then again I think it's more difficult for the US to infiltrate the top echelons of the NK army unlike in Latin America.

I think the CIA has probably tried multiple times to assassinate, Kim could just be wise to it, like Castro was.

Things have moved on since Castros day - what about a "rogue" drone ?

 

[DarloRich]

Find out where he is. Insert cruise missile trough window. Job done. That isnt the issue. The issue is who and what comes next.

 

[ainsworth74]

Not sure I fancy a power vacuum after an assassination or the serious instability that could follow a coup in a nuclear armed country!

 

[DarloRich]

Not sure I fancy a power vacuum after an assassination or the serious instability that could follow a coup in a nuclear armed country!

exactly - all this is simply playing to their respective galleries. I can not believe either would fire first but believe either would fire back if the other fired first! It is one thing to posture but another to cross that line

 

[najaB]

exactly - all this is simply playing to their respective galleries. I can not believe either would fire first but believe either would fire back if the other fired first! It is one thing to posture but another to cross that line

The problem is, that all it takes is a garbled radio message or a nervous Private out there with an itchy trigger finger and it all goes to hell in a hand cart.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The problem is, that all it takes is a garbled radio message or a nervous Private out there with an itchy trigger finger and it all goes to hell in a hand cart.

I don't think thermonuclear weapons are generally deployed by way of radio messages or at the pull of a Private's finger.

 

[Moonshot]

Not sure I fancy a power vacuum after an assassination or the serious instability that could follow a coup in a nuclear armed country!

Indeed......

There would need to be a deep seated plan to insert far more reasonable leaders who could guide the country away from the sufferings the population no doubt suffer. Not easy...

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed......

There would need to be a deep seated plan to insert far more reasonable leaders who could guide the country away from the sufferings the population no doubt suffer. Not easy...

Quite. Think "Eye-raq" but with the mythical WMD.

 

[TheEdge]

If a US, South Korea and Japan coalition (or possibly even China) wanted to enact a nice bit of regime change, and lets be honest of all the awful regimes in the world North Korea is a good candidate for change, it would need to be a full on boots on the ground invasion with a really well thought out plan once "Kill chubby bloke and his mates" is complete

It just couldn't be done as an assassination or half arsed Iraq style attempt.

 

[najaB]

I don't think thermonuclear weapons are generally deployed by way of radio messages or at the pull of a Private's finger.

Indeed, they aren't. But by the same token, anarchists in Sarajevo didn't have the combined armies of Europe under their control in 1914, but a single bullet was the domino that lead to other dominos falling...

 

[DarloRich]

If a US, South Korea and Japan coalition (or possibly even China) wanted to enact a nice bit of regime change, and lets be honest of all the awful regimes in the world North Korea is a good candidate for change, it would need to be a full on boots on the ground invasion with a really well thought out plan once "Kill chubby bloke and his mates" is complete

It just couldn't be done as an assassination or half arsed Iraq style attempt.

Or just choke off the coal, oil and food supplies, stop any exports and freeze all bank accounts overseas. Destroy all bridges , dockyards and every power plant. Starve them out............

( terrible on an already oppressed and poor people mind and dropping anything on NK means SK gets shelled and China get upset.)

 

[Moonshot]

If a US, South Korea and Japan coalition (or possibly even China) wanted to enact a nice bit of regime change, and lets be honest of all the awful regimes in the world North Korea is a good candidate for change, it would need to be a full on boots on the ground invasion with a really well thought out plan once "Kill chubby bloke and his mates" is complete

It just couldn't be done as an assassination or half arsed Iraq style attempt.

Opening up the border with South Korea would need to be done....no doubt there will be a steady stream of refugees from North to South.